THE AFTERMATH OF IRANIAN VICTORY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP86B00885R000800990040-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 14, 2008
• Sequence Number: 40
• Publication Date: May 18, 1982
• Content Type: REPORT

Approved For Release 2008/08/19: CIA-RDP86B00885R000800990040-7
BUREAU OF INTELLIGENCE AND RESEARCH - ANALYSIS= MAY 18,'_1982 ?
1. THE AFTERMATH'OF IRA''IAN VICTORY
?.?
Iran has begun to signal its intention to be recognized an
the major regional power in the Gulf. Tehran now seems inlined
to hold Iranian forces at the Iraqi border while it waits or
Saddam Hussein's downfall and attempts to persuade the Gu
states to cut their ties to Baghdad. Saddam Husseip,.fac g
growing internal difficulties, continues to staff for tim if
Iranian peace terms are not met, pressures will build in ehran.
for incursions into Iraqi territory.
f .?
Although Iran's victories demonstrate-its regional p44er,
recent Iranian statements and behavior suggest that Tehran does
not now intend to press its current military advantage to impose -
radical Islamic governments on neighboring states. Rather', the
Iranian leadership apparently believes that the display of mili-.
prowess against Iraq, combined with the untested but.potlnt;.-
tar
t',
&oneal of Islamic revolution, may be sufficient to secure Iranian
goals without further costs..,
in the Gulf, Te, hran is employing a complex mix of diplomacy-. ?
wnd veiled threats to press the Arab Gulf stages to reconsider
their support for an already defeated Iraqi regime. For the
moment,. Tehran is refraining. from retaliation against XUwait for .
suspected military cooperation. with Baghdad during the.recent a;'=
fighting. ,
Ayatollah Khomeini recently said that Iranian troops have'-no
intention of pushing into-Iraq. In fact, Iranian troops'have
halted at the border following their latest victories. The call
for a march on the Shia holy cities-in Iraq,. trumpeted during
Iraq's offensive in march by Ayatollah Montaz.eri, Khomeini's
possible successor, has not been repeated. Nonetheless, Tehran
has not permanently 'ruled out the option of invading Iraq should
i eP rQau iced t6-force acceptance of ' its basic demands.. 25X1
25X1
Saddam Hussein's regime has been seriously jeopardized by
Iran's recent victories. When Khorramshahr-?.falls, as we. expect
it to, it will be impossible to hide',the fact that Ira is losing
the war. This defeat might stimulate.popular dissidence (last
week.there was an unprecedented outbreak of urban violence
against the regime and the war in Iraqi Kurdistan).
1 r - p.
But the principal danger toSaddam will come from within the-
regime. ' If the' Iranians finally decide to -enter Iraq,,- Saddam's
remaining support will probably` erode quickly.i
State Dept. review completed
mnv SECRET' *UMBRAINOFORN ;:
Approved For Release 2008/08/19: CIA-RDP86B00885R000800990040-7
 Approved For Release 2008/08/19: CIA-RDP86B00885R000800990040-7
C TYVE SECRETARIA1r' ' ...?. i
U
_ ~XE
GENCE AND RESTA
BUREAU OF INTELLI
MORNING SUMMARY
May 18,.1982
Current Reports
1. Falklands
Military Update
A.
B. EC Approves Limited Extension of Sanctions
C. Nicaragua Offers Troops
Namibia
A. South Africa Not Prepared To Change Stance
B. South African Military Buildup Continues -,
3. Lebanon: More Weapons for: the Palbstinians
4. Egypt:. Psychological After-Effects of the Sinai Withdrawal
5. Poland/USSR: Soviets goncprned over Recent Unrest
6. PRC.,: Positive Reaction to START Briefing,
7. Nicaragua: Probable Libyan Arms Delivery
0, Vietnam`: Le Duiat Reported Ill in the USSR
9. -Honduras: President- S'azo Cordova Advised Not To Visit IBS
Anal is
1. The Aftermath'of Iranian' Victory
E ; Masi ul Bremen--III ad ~..
::.', .Hugh MOntgoatcry, t.. i
Review for Declassification on: 5/18/12
Extended by: - L. Paul Bremer III and
. f
!o Hugh Montgopmry
Reason for Extension: `RDS-2-3
TOp SECRET/EXDIS/CODEWORD.
Approved For Release 2008/08/19: CIA-RDP86B00885R000800990040-7