DCI BRIEFING NOTES CUBAN ACTIVITY IN CENTRAL AMERICA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP86B00420R000200430003-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: October 14, 2009
• Sequence Number: 3
• Publication Date: January 1, 1984
• Content Type: REPORT

S Approved For Release 2009/10/14: CIA-RDP86B0042OR000200430003-0
DCI Briefing Notes
Cuban Activity in Central America
There is substantial evidence that the Cubans are promoting another
major insurgent offensive in El Salvador while at the same time preparing
to build up their forces in Nicaragua.
Havana had stepped up its arms shipments to El
Salvador in order to prepare the insurgents for a major offensive
around September or October. The idea is to present the US
administration with a policy dilemma prior to the elections.
the
Cubans have convinced the guerrillas to go ahead with plans for an
offensive in August--a timetable consistent with
Havana told the insurgents an offensive is needed to enhance
their negotiation's posture, claiming that a majority of the US
Congress is opposed to military intervention and is prepared to force
the Salvadoran government to accept negotiations.
the insurgents are continuing to
receive supplies, primarily ammunition, from Nicaragua:
Nicaragua is continuing to provide
ammunition to the Salvadoran insurgents.
the Sandinistas
said at a high-level meeting in mid-May that they considered it vital
that ammunition continued to reach the insurgents.
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one guerrilla
unit received a shipment of 166 rifles in late May and that weapons
and supplies were being transported overland through Honduras in
April.
The Intelligence Community is generally agreed that the planned
insurgent offensive is not likely to be an all-out short-term effort
designed to overrun large areas, but rather a sustained effort with lesser
objectives designed to regain the tactical initiative and demonstrate the
insurgents are still a strong military factor.
-- A key to guerrilla success will be whether sustained Army
operations through the summer can keep them off balance and prevent
coordinated insurgent attacks.
Meanwhile, there is mounting evidence that the Cubans may be preparing
to introduce MIG fighter aircraft and possibly even combat units into
Nicaragua before our November elections.
the Cubans want to have Punta Huete
airfield ready by October to receive fighter aircraft.
-- The pace of construction has increased substantially there over
the last several months, as well as at two other Nicaraguan airfields,
and all would be ready to support limited fighter operations by
October (see photos).
-- We are watching closely for the appearance of fuel trucks, radar
and electronics, and improved air defenses at any of the airfields,
which may signal the imminent deployment of aircraft.
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The accelerated construction activity suggests that more Cuban
construction workers have arrived.
-- We currently estimate there are some 2,000 construction workers
out of the nearly 10,000 Cubans in Nicaragua.
The increased pace of other military deliveries by the Soviet Bloc
this year, particularly of tanks and trucks, raises the possibility that
the Soviets and Cubans may be pre-positioning equipment in the expectation
of major hostilities.
-- It also suggests that Cuban combat units may be preparing to
deploy to Nicaragua if necessary.
there are already some 7,000 to
8,000 Cuban troops in Nicaragua, double the Intelligence Community
estimate.
-- Although there is no independent confirmation of this higher
number, Community analysts are riot prepared to discount it.
-- They are looking for definitive evidence
before they raise their estimate.
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