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CIA-RDP86B00420R000200310005-1
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March 1, 1984
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MISC
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Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/10/22 : CIA-RDP86B0042OR000200310005-1 1. As always, the Soviets are acting in arms control in five areas of increasing political sensitivity: o public statements, as in TASS, et al. o unofficial bilateral exchanges of views, as in Dartmouth Group, et al. o official exchanges, as in MBFR, CDE, SCC, etc. o private or semi-private feelers, as in Dobrynin's "leaks to Boston Globe, et al. o official letters between President Reagan and General Secretary Chernenko. 2. There is not, and probably cannot be, substantive consistency in all five channels from day-to-day or even week-to-week. It is too hard to orchestrate all that. 3. The mix of "positive" and "negative" channels varies over time; in some cases, as today, public statements and official letters are congruent in substance. 4. In fact, I think it is clear the Soviets are purposely "talking out of both sides of their mouths." 5. The key question is whether any meaning is there for the US 6. The USSR clearly is looking for US "concessions", such as taking UK and French nuclear missiles into account somewhere. Such steps by US would o look good in their own right to USSR. o let the USSR out of the political box they created when they left INF and START. o be useful for any internal arguments in USSR that this leadership knows how to deal with the US. Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/10/22 : CIA-RDP86B0042OR000200310005-1 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/10/22 : CIA-RDP86B0042OR000200310005-1 7. Furthermore, independent of whether a person is first interested context in the nation's welfare or the first Tuesday in November, in this or both, one has to deal with the private feelers. 8. And I believe, unlike last autumn in INF, that quickly introducing into diplomatic channels the substance of these private feelers is not an obviously good idea. Rather, I would: o for Dobrynin: use a Burt-Sokolov channel in Washington and a similar one in Moscow. o for the intelligence officers: use their social/business contacts in Washington. 9. If the US uses the private channels, one could: o say yes to what Soviets are seeking, or o be silent on that and offer our own ideas. 10. So far, I see no consensus at my level or so in the Executive Branch on such ideas; OSD hates arms control of all and any kinds the USSR would ever accept. 11. In any case, the Soviets will be tough bargainers in normal diplomatic channels or private ones. 1984 will complicate in obvious ways any US or USSR efforts to: o identify areas of mutual interest for any progress. o actually work it out. 12. The price will be steep but I think the odds are good (say, 60%) US can get some kind of a deal with the USSR this yearif the US wants it and does it gracefully; probably as early as late spring, more likely in the June-July period. -2- SECRET 25X1 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/10/22 : CIA-RDP86B0042OR000200310005-1 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/10/22 : CIA-RDP86B0042OR000200310005-1 SECRET SUGGESTED TALKING POINTS FOR DCI ~rr FV__d ~ - . N i v/vss~ 1. Moscow's current policy toward the US is to maximize pressures on the administration d- ri ng an election year to extract concessions, especially in arms control. -- The basic Soviet aim -- admittedly a long shot -- is to deflect the Reagan Administration from its main foreign policy course of rearmament and tough competition with the USSR. -- 1984 offers their best, perhaps last, chance to do this. 2. But they have not, repeat NOT, made any fundamental decisions to change their own basic po icies to mitigate the competition yet. The notion that the Soviets are at a basic turning point of policy because of Chernenko is mistaken. a. They were moving toward more tactical flexibility before Chernenko acceded to power. b. Even if Chernenko is more powerful than he sometimes looks, the leadership is not in shape to make a major departure from the strategies of the past decade. -- Remember, on things that matter most to the US, Andropov was not that different from Brezhnev. The Soviets have no reason to embrace a fixed view of the US now. In the Soviet view ... Reagan will probably be reelected, but it's not certain. -- Even if he is reelected, economic and political realities are likely to make his reach greater than his grasp in defense and foreign policy during a second term. The Soviets are very unlikely to hold the view that "it's better to strike a deal before the election than after." It will be impossible to sign, much less ratify, a major "agreement" e.g., INF, before the election. The appearance of a deal-in-the-offing would probably help the President's reelection prospects, something which the Soviets do not want to do, according to all our sources. Soviets would see a high risk that a reelected Reagan administration would break away from a pre-election agreement in principle. CL BY SIGNER DECL OADR Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/10/22 : CIA-RDP86B0042OR000200310005-1 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/10/22 : CIA-RDP86B0042OR000200310005-1 SECRET 3. They want to create the appearance, particularly to the top levels of the USG, that they are'ready for "a deal." But they are not yet ready on their own part for the concessions necessary to make "a deal" of real or lasting value for the US. -- This accounts for the faintest hints of reasonableness in some public statements (recently turned hard again) and private encouragement from Dobrynin on prospects for relations. 4. Even this narrow tactical purpose on the Soviet part, however, makes them willing to engage in an arms-length minuet. -- This offers the US the opportunity to create the image of slight immprovement in US/Soviet relations, of benefit to us with allies and publics. -- The risk for the US is that the Soviets -- having a more disciplined system -- will manipulate us more effectively than we manipulate them. 5. Given the Soviet tactical interest, we can probably keep alive their willingness to engage in exploratory dialogue, at least to the extent seen since January, without major concessions on START, INF, and other areas where we are far apart e.g., ASAT, Chemical Weapons). -- A cautious US approach would concentrate on CBMs (e.g., HOTLINE) and peripheral issues ... at least for some months. 6. To get more dramatic movement we probably have to consider more costly concessions. The crucial concession the Soviets are clearly To ing for is a moratorium on INF deployments. - The Soviets believe that an INF moratorium, and perhaps just talk about a moratorium, could rekindle the INF controversy in Europe and stop futher US deployments-permanently. 7. During the election, the Soviets will try to create an atmosphere in which the two US candidates compete in terms of who can better create amity with Moscow. -- This will create pressure for US concessions. 8. If the US holds firm during a period of maximum political "vulnerability", i.e., 1984, this will go a long way to creating the conditions for a more genuinely flexible Soviet posture in 1985-1988. -- During the latter period US political freedom of movement will be greater. SECRET Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/10/22 : CIA-RDP86B0042OR000200310005-1 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/10/22 : CIA-RDP86B0042OR000200310005-1 SECRET The results of our defense programs will begin to show. -? A stronger Soviet political leadership with better prospects for longevity may emerge and be better equipped to engage in longer-term planning and genuine give-and-take. 10. Throughout 1984 we have to remember the supreme importance of preserving the kind of credibility in Moscow that would allow us to manage a real crisis which could blow up at any time, e.g., in the Gulf. -- It would be dangerous to create the illusion in Moscow that the US cannot for political reasons risk a worsening of relations such a crisis could entail. SECRET Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/10/22 : CIA-RDP86B0042OR000200310005-1 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/10/22 : CIA-RDP86B0042OR000200310005-1 Prqoj- e by C/AGIS Proposed Talking Points for DCI at NSC/NSPG Meeting, 27 March 1984 1. As always, the Soviets are acting in arms control in five areas of increasing political sensitivity: o public statements, as in TASS, et al. o unofficial bilateral exchanges of views, as in Dartmouth Group, et al. o official exchanges, as in MBFR, CDE, SCC, etc. o private or semi-private feelers, as in Dobrynin's "leaks" to Boston Globe, et al. o official letters between President Reagan and General Secretary Chernenko. 2. There is not, and probably cannot be, substantive consistency in all five channels from day-to-day or even week-to-week. It is too hard to orchestrate all that. 3. The mix of "positive" and "negative" channels varies over time; in some cases, as today, public statements and official letters are congruent in substance. 4. In fact, I think it is clear the Soviets are purposely "talking out of both sides of their mouths." 5. The key question is whether any meaning is there for the US. 6. The USSR clearly is looking for US "concessions", such as taking UK and French nuclear missiles into account somewhere. Such steps by US would: o look good in their own right to USSR. o let the USSR out of the political box they created when they left INF and START. o be useful for any internal arguments in USSR that this leadership knows how to deal with the US. Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/10/22 : CIA-RDP86B0042OR000200310005-1 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/10/22 : CIA-RDP86B0042OR000200310005-1 7. In any case, the Soviets will be tough bargainers in normal diplomatic channels or private ones. 1984 will complicate in obvious ways any US or USSR efforts to: o identify areas of mutual interest for any progress. o actually work it out. 8. The Soviets appear to have adopted a two-pronged strategy on arms control, taking an inflexible line on INF and START, while simultaneously expressing willingness, and signaling that a breakthrough in US-Soviet relations is possible if Washington shows flexibility in these other areas. 9. They presumably calculate that this strategy enables them to stand firm on the central issues of INF and START, without making themselves appear so intransigent as to rally support for NATO's policies or to demonstrate that they, not the Administration, are responsible for poor US-Soviet relations. 10. Meanwhile, they continue to probe for flexibility on a range of issues, with the aim of extracting the maximum price for any marked improvement in relations or arms control issues before the US elections. 11. The Politburo will be wary of any major steps unless convinced that significant gains are at hand for the USSR, especially on their fundamental concerns in START and INF. Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/10/22 : CIA-RDP86B0042OR000200310005-1 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/10/22 : CIA-RDP86B0042OR000200310005-1 Iq Next 4 Page(s) In Document Denied Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/10/22 : CIA-RDP86B0042OR000200310005-1 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/10/22 : CIA-RDP86B0042OR000200310005-1 i, cripple the Nicaraquan economy, but no more. Fred Francis, NBC News, on the Nicaraguan border. Eighteen Marines Killed in Crash CHUNG: Eighteen U. S. Marines are believed dead in a helicopter crash 170 miles southeast 6f Seoul, South Korea. The Marines were engaged in war game maneuvers with South Korean servicemen. Eleven South Koreans are also believed killed. The Marine chopper apparently went down in rugged mountains because of bad weather. This is the second time in a week these military exercises have been marred by an incident. On Wednesday, a nuclear-powered submarine rammed the U. S. Aircraft Carrier Kitty Hawk in the Sea of Japan. CBS SUNDAY EVENING NEWS CBS TV 6:00 PM MARCH 25 Arens Denies Weinberger Remark MORTON DEAN: Israeli Defense Minister Moshe Arens emphatically denies some remarks attributed to him in today's New York Times Magazine. The cover article says Mr. Arens called Defense Secretary Caspar Weinberger, quote, "a' prime candidate for psychoanaly- sis." Mr. Arens also disputes another point in the article, that he once offered to return disputed border territory to Egypt in exchange for a meeting with the Egyptian defense minis- ter. The editor of the New York Times Magazine says he stands behind the story. ABC WORLD NEWS TONIGHT ABC TV 6:30 PM MARCH 25 No News of Relevance to DOD NBC SUNDAY ?NIGI4T NEWS--' NBC' TV 6 30 ;:P4 4 MA'RCH ;2 U.S Soviet Dialoque Unlikely JOHN PALMER, French President Francois Mitte.rand called'on the United States and the Soviet Union today to. resume their, 'dialogue and end what he called a period of mutual silence. But as` Marvin Kalb reports, that silence, especially on the part of the Soviet Union, is likely to continue. MARVIN KALB: According to U.S. experts, the new Soviet leadership has decided not` to respond posi- `~tively to,; President Reagan's recent overtures for an improve- ment in relations. Just back from Moscow, two retired generals, BrentScowcroft and David Jones, with bleak assess- ,ments about resuming nuclear arms negotiations anytime soon. Scowcroft had a message from the President for the new Kremlin leader, Konstantin Chernenko. But the Russians never gave him a chance to deliver it. Jones `wanted to talk with the Soviet Chief of Staff, General Nikoli Agargov. But no meeting was ar- ranged. The current view is that .Chernenko, after earlier indica- tions that he'd like to improve relations, has either changed his mind or been reined in by the Communist Party and military bureaucracies; his view now described as not wishing to help the President get reelected, but prepared with half-steps to keep the lines of communication open. French President Francois Mitterand, appearing on NBC's "Meet the Press," urged the Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/10/22 CIA-RDP86B0042OR000200310005-1 _____ Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/10/22 : CIA-RDP86B0042OR000200310005-1 U.S. SAYS MOSCOW Moscow Refuses REFUSED A LETTER From President) ' PRESIDENT FROM PRIVATE ENVOY REBUFFED Scowcroft, Carrying Reagan's Note, Wasn't Given Chance to See Soviet Leaders By LESLIE H. GELB Special to The New YorkTimes WASHINGTON, March 23 - A pri- vate American envoy carrying a per- sonal message from President Reagan! to Konstantin U. Chernenko in Moscow was not given the opportunity to meet with the Soviet leader or any other top ! Soviet official, according to Adminis- tration officials. The officials said the envoy, Lieut. Gen. Brent Scowcroft, retired, the chairman of the President's Commis- sion on Strategic Forces, made known to Soviet officials when he was in Mos- cow Iwo weeks ago that he had a per- sonal Presidential letter and some additional authorized comments, but never beard anything back and was never given an explanation. ..U.S. Elections Seen as Factor In Moscow, Western diplomats who have talked with Soviet officials say, they believe the Soviet Union is likely to remain cool for some time to Ameri- can overtures because of uncertainty over the American elections and other factors. But President Francois Mitter- rand, ending two days of talks in Wash- ington, said he believed Moscow may be reassessing its position on arms con- trol talks, and he warned against' "creating new causes of dissension" in East-West relations. [Page 3.] American administrations have on several occasions used private gobe- tweens known to be respected in Mos- cow to deliver high-level messages to Soviet leaders at times of difficulty in formal Soviet-American relations. Ad- ministration officials said they could not recollect any previous instance of Soviet officials' refusing to receive an envoy and a message $t appropriate levels. Administration officials read this as i another sign that top Soviet leaders are either unwilling or unable to agree on restarting nuclear arms talks or any Continued on Page 3, Column 1 visible negotiating contacts unrest Washington first makes concrete ges-' tures or concessions. On. Thursday, Arthur A. Hartman, the United States Ambassador to the Soviet Union, said in Washington that the two countries were involved in talks that "could lead to some kind of progress on the more serious issues." He added that he hoped for a resump- tion of talks on a cultural and scientific exchange accord that expired in 1980. The message taken to Moscow by W. Scowcroft, according to the sources, was that Mr. Reagan was pre- pared for serious and wide-ranging talks and accommodations with the Soviet Union, including suggestions on, the'stalled nuclear arms talks, if SovietI negotiators would return to the bar- gaining table. Responses `Pretty Frosty' This was said to be identical to other Presidential messages in recent weeks, starting with Vice President; Bush's meeting with Mr. Chernenko ai month ago at the time of Yuri V. Andro-1 pox's funeral. At least two other letters! A high State Department official said, "Essentially, we've been telling them that we're serious and ready to engage, and their responses have all been pretty frosty." Soviet officials were said to have told Mr. Scowcroft and American diplo- mats that they viewed these entice- ments as a trick to lure Moscow back into negotiations in order to convince the American public and world leaders that a serious dialogue is under way, and thus help Mr. Reagan's re-election prospects without advancing the ne- gotiations. They have called for Ameri- can deeds, not just words, and in particular some commitment to elimi- nate the medium-range American mis- siles recently deloyed in Europe. Mr. Scowcroft went to Moscow for four days as a member of a private group of American foreign policy ex- perts to engage in informal talks with Soviet officials. Known as the Dart- mouth Group, it has, with varying membership, met with Soviet arms control experts yearly for almost two decades. Mr. Scowcroft was out of the country and unavailable for comment, but other participants characterized the exchanges as the most negative ever. The sources also said Gen. David C. Jones, the former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and another mem- a Message, ber of the group, asked to meet with top Soviet generals and was refused. Administration officials said Hans- Jochen Vogel and Egon Bahr, two lead- ers of the West German Social Demo- cratic Party and established advocates of improving East-West relations, were in Moscow at the same time as the Dartmouth Group and were received by Mr. Chernenko. But, the officials said what Mr. Chernenko said to them was no more promising than what was told to the Dartmouth Group. 3 Theories on Soviet Position There are three competing theories in the Administration to explain the hard-line Soviet position. One is that Soviet leaders are in agreement about rejecting any activity that might help Mr. Reagan's re-elec- tion prospects and believe his Adminis- tration's bargaining position would not be much different in a second term than it is now. Accordingly, there is not much incentive to restart talks now. The second is that a leadership strug- gle is under way in Moscow, with some ! wanting to resume the dialogue and others opposed, and as a result they. cannot agree on doing anything new. The third is that Moscow means what it says, that if Washington made con- cessions first, it would go back to the Geneva arms control talks, which have been suspended since December. Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/10/22 : CIA-RDP86B0042OR000200310005-1 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/10/22 : CIA-RDP86B0042OR000200310005-1 U.. LLLU`I'IUN SLEN AFFECTING MOSCOW Surge by Hart Among Several Factors Cited in Continued Cool Washington Ties By JOHN F. BURNS Special to The New York Times MOSCOW, March 23 - Despite ef- forte by the Reagan Administration to break the impasse in Soviet-American relations, Western diplomats and visi- tors-who have talked with senior Soviet off cials believe that a number of fac- tors, including uncertainty over the Pre$idential election, are likely to per- suade the Kremlin to remain cool to- ward Washington's overtures for some time to come. , Iri particular, the diplomats say, the United States is likely to find the Soviet leadership reluctant to resume the ne- gotiations on nuclear weapons that have been in abeyance since late last year unless Washington offers a prior concession of the kind the Kremlin has been demanding on the issues that have le4 to deadlocks on two sets of weapons talks. $ixx weeks ago, after Konstantin U. Chernenko became the Soviet leader on th* death of Yuri V. Andropov, there were hopes that Mr. Chernenko would break the impasse. President Reagan's speech on Jan. l6 seeking a renewed dialogue between the two countries marked at least a modest shift on American policy. Mr., Chernenko greeted Vice President. Bush and other Western dignitaries after the funeral of Mr. Andropov in a positive manner that was taken by some Western envoys as a harbinger of newdiplomatic moves. ? Hart Seen as a Factor Recently, those hopes have dimmed. Since early this month there has been a shift back to the chilly and implacable mood that set in after the Russians walked out of the medium-range mis- sile talks in Geneva in November, and followed that up by suspending parallel negotiations on strategic, or long- range, weapons. The Kremlin has rebuffed diplomatic probes from Washington, and has driven the message home by adopting a stringent and uncooperative attitude on a range of lesser issues. One element that seems to be deter- ring the Kremlin is the emergence of Senator Gary Hart as a serious con- tender for the Democratic presidential nomination. Soviet officials and commentators who were talking a few week ago as though they regarded President Rea- gan as odds-on to be re-elected are sud- denly saying that the election could hinge on the state of Soviet-American relations, and that the Democrats could still win. Diplomats say they sense that this has had a major impact on policy to- ward the United States. As long as Mr. Reagan was regarded as likely to over- whelm his Democratic opponent, the diplomats say, there was a chance that the Soviet leaders might seek arms agreements with him before the elec- tion. Now many diplomats believe that Mr. Hart's successes in the primaries and the emphasis he has placed on a nuclear weapons freeze is impelling the Russians in the other direction, away from any early concessions. This stance may have attractions for the Kremlin regardless of whether Mr. Hart emerges as the Democratic nomi- nee. As the diplomats view it, the Rus- sians see the Colorado Senator as push- ing the nuclear weapons issue into the forefront of the campaign, thus in- creasing the pressure on Mr. Reagan to modify his position. At the same time, by enlivening the Democratic contest, the diplomats say, Mr. Hart is seen as increasing the chances that either he or former Vice President Walter F. Mon- dale will give Mr. Reagan a good con- test in November. In the meantime, it is plain that the Kremlin sees a resumption of negotia- tions with the Reagan Administration as a political prize that would help the President's election chances. What this implies is that an arms concession of sufficient importance by! Mr. Reagan would outweigh other con-; siderations and could prompt the re- opening of talks. And there were new indications today that the Kremlin's price for a nu- clear agreement would remain high. Two articles by the official press agency, Tass, said that there could be no return to the negotiations on medi- um-range missiles without prior with- drawal of the Pershing 2 and cruise. missiles that the United States began deploying in Britain and West Ger- many at the end of last year. One of the Tass articles rebutted for the first time a compromise proposal promoted in some quarters in the West under which talks would resume on a Western pledge to freeze further de- ployment. One Tass piece also discussed an in- terview given to a West German news- paper, Offenburger Tagenblatt, by the West German Chancellor, Helmut Kohl. Tass said Mr. Kohl had predicted that Moscow would return to the Geneva talks. But the Tass article said: "The Soviet Union will not take part in such a game, and will not have such talks and discussions. The Soviet stand on that issue is most explicit and clear cut. The way to the talks can open only through withdrawal of the Ameri- can missiles." Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/10/22 : CIA-RDP86B0042OR000200310005-1 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/10/22 : CIA-RDP86B00420R000200310005-1 A20 ... Friday. Ars-e&:3.198S THE WASIiINGTON POST i Soviet Decision-Making Paralysis' alks Seen Arr~ is C?ntroI T Hampering "?'~ ? his col- AswcaudPrM response to administration critics was "aging and ailing. and l were themselves e .A three-year "paralysis" in Soviet d4ision-making, brought about by t?4 leadership changes, has "severely Isnmpered" U.S. efforts to reach arms control agreements, a top State Department official said yesterday. Lawrence S. Eagleburger, under- secretary for political affairs, said that since the Reagan administration took office, the Soviets have not. had tie. kind of leadership capable of mlikiiig difficult decisions and ac- ?ing responsibility for them. .., "Virtually without exception, each tilde -the Soviets have been' faced with difficult choices, we have wit- en sse l a period of apparent internal ~gbate, followed inevitably by hard- Hne decisions, clearly dictated by the r,104 conservative elements in the ` itburo," Eagleburger said. His assessment apparently was in ar who blame President Reagan for the eagu s failure of Moscow and Washington for the succession. to reach arms control agreements. Yuri V. Andropov, who succeeded `' Eaglebuzgei's remarks were pre- Brezhnev in November, 198~, was pared for delivery to a foreign policy seriously ill for much of his short conference in Birmingham, Ala. A tenure, Eagleburger said, and Kon- stantin U. Chernenko, who became d b l y ease text of his speech was re the State Department. Communist Party leader six weeks. Eagleburger, the department's ago, "has yet to establish himself." third-ranking official, said the ad- "This flux in the Kremlin has se- ministration has worked hard to put . verely hampered the give-and-take forward sensible arms control pro- of diplomacy in general," Eaglebur- ger said, "and of our arms control "Yet , for now, at least, all we have talks in particular.' to show for it is a Soviet walkout He said the lesson of the past from the two most important arms three years is that the Soviet deci- control negotiations," he said, refer- lion-making apparatus-in the ab- ring to the talks on reducing inter- sence of strong leadership that is continental and medium-range nu- prepared to exercise its authority- clear weapons. He said that when "is likely to seek refuge in a bureau- the administration took office, So- cratically safe but substantively ster- viet President Leonid I. Brezhnev ile hard line." LAWRENCE S. EAGLEBURGER ."All we have is a Soviet walkout" Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/10/22 : CIA-RDP86B00420R000200310005-1 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/10/22 : CIA-RDP86B0042OR000200310005-1 Washington Wire A Special Weekly Report From The Wall Street Journal's Capital Bureau U.S.-SOVIET FRICTION grows over pri. vate talks to ease tensions. The two sides dispute the current talks' significance; analysts detect an election- year propaganda war. Moscow is peeved by a Shultz statement touting "private diplo- matic discussions" to seek possible accord on arms control and other issues. The Sovi- ets claim Shultz spreads false optimism. They deny that a private meeting in Moscow between Gromyko and U.S. Ambassador Hartman made any progress. The-Reagan administration, with eyes on the election, wants to make relations seem better than they are. A top official insists the quiet discussions are continuing "to see if he can solve some of these problems." Moscow tries to paint a bleak picture-for fear that any appearance of progress might only help Reagan's reelection chances. Many U.S. officials doubt any break- through on nuclear-arms issues this year. But the Soviets will have to deal with Reagan next year if he is re- elected. WS 23l L Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/10/22 : CIA-RDP86B0042OR000200310005-1 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/10/22 : CIA-RDP86B0042OR000200310005-1 U. S. Envoy Looks to Soviet Talks On a New Cultural Exchange Pact By BERNARD GWERTZMAN Special to Mw New York Time WASHINGTON, March 22 - Arthur A. Hartman, the United States Ambas- sador to the Soviet Union, said today that the two countries were involved in talks that "could lead to some kind of progress on the more serious issues." He said he hoped for a resumption of talks on a cultural and scientific ex- change agreement. Negotiations on ex- changes and on establishing consulates in New York and Kiev were about to be revived last summer when President`` Reagan ordered a suspension in re- sponse to the downing of a South Ko- rean airliner by a Soviet plane. The exchange agreement expired in 1980 and was not renewed by the Carter Administration because of the % Soviet intervention in Afghanistan. The estab. lishment of the additional consulates was also canceled by President Carter. In another East-West forum, the European security talks in Stockholm, the Soviet Union was said to be testing NATO interest in a statement renounc- ing the use of force to clear the way for a resumption of arms talks. [Page A8.] Ambassador Hartman returned to Washington several days ago for the, .second time is less than a month to con- I suit and to talk to outside groups in an j effort to promote support for a more i positive approach to dealing with the Soviet Union. He has been cautious on the possibilities because of what he per- es oisa