DCI TALKING POINTS ON NICARAGUAN ELECTIONS 30 OCTOBER 1984

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP86B00269R001500230002-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 2
• Document Creation Date: December 19, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 9, 2005
• Sequence Number: 2
• Publication Date: October 30, 1984
• Content Type: PAPER

Approved For Release 2006/01/03 : - 001500230002-8
DCI Talking Points on Nicaraguan Elections
Elections for Nicaragua's President, Vice President, and a 90-member
assembly will take place as scheduled on 4 November, and despite the
Sandinistas' expected victory, they will not gain the legitimacy they are
seeking. Participating to date are:
-- The ruling Sandinista National Liberation Front;
-- Three small radical leftist parties--the Communist Party of
Nicaragua, the Popular Action Movement/Marxist-Leninist, and the
Nicaraguan Socialist Party, with a combined total of some 1,000
members.
-- Two democratically-oriented parties--the Popular Social Christian
Party and a minority faction of the Conservative Democratic Party,
with a combined total of less than 400 members.
Boycotting the contest are:
-- The National Democratic Coordinator--a coalition of four center-
right parties, two independent labor unions, and business groups--
the Independent Liberal Party, and the majority faction of the
Conservative Democrats; absent labor, a combined party membership
of approximately 15,000.
We expect the regime will use whatever fraudulent procedures are
necessary to obtain the desired results.
-- It is doubtful that we will be able to document the cheating in
ways that will provide persuasive evidence to the international
community.
According to press reports, some 400 foreign observers will monitor
the elections. Their verdicts, however, probably will depend more on their
ideological predispositions than on the facts.
-- The Netherlands is the only West European country thus far to send
official observers, although several will be represented
"unofficially" by their resident ambassadors.
-- The Socialist International, European Christian Democratic Union,
and European Parliament will send representatives.
-- We believe all the Contadora countries and the Central American
Core Four will decline to send observers--Mexico, Venezuela, and
Costa Rica already have.
Recent Sandinista statements indicate concern about voter
abstention. Nevertheless, we believe the regime's coercive tactics and
general fear of retaliation--either overt or subtle--probably will induce
an acceptable turnout.
Approved For Release 2006/01 /d$ . A't DP86B00269R001500230002-8
 Approved For Release 2006/01/03 : CIA-RDP86B0026
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-- The regime envisions gaining a strong majority of the votes cast
and hopes at least 80 percent of the 1.6 million reportedly
registered will go to the polls.
-- According to US military and Embassy sources, a scare campaign by
the regime to the effect that the Sandinistas will be able to
determine how people voted by fingerprinting them coupled with
threats to deny ration coupons to those without validated voter
identification cards will lead to fewer abstentions and opposition
ballots.
Approved For Release 2006/01/03 : CIA-RDP86B00269 R001500230002-8