REVISED LIST OF NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE TOPICS (U)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP86B00269R001400070003-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 8
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 6, 2002
• Sequence Number: 3
• Publication Date: August 31, 1979
• Content Type: MF

~ D 79-V0 9
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MEMORANDUM FOR:
THROUGH
FROM :
SUBJECT .
Director of Central Intelligence
Deputy Director of Central Intelligence
James H. Taylor
Comptroller
Revised List of National Intelligence Topics
(U)
1. Curious about the possible resource implications of the recent
changes to the National Intelligence Topics of Current Interest (NITCI),
we took a close look at the new list and prepared a brief analysis.
Having been deeply involved in the process, you are unlikely to learn
anything new from our descriptive or quantitative rundown. Nonetheless,
you might be interested in seeing how the revised list looks to someone
who, while not a substantive expert, is attempting to get from it some
sense of the substantive problems driving the Intelligence Community's
effort. (S)
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2. Perhaps the most noteworthy fact is that the revision almost
doubles the number of questions the Intelligence Community is to give
priority attention to. Although much of this increase results from the
kind of inflation that is inherent in any requirements exercise, the
expansion also clearly reflects policymakers' concerns about recent events,
particularly the changes in Central America, Iran, and elsewhere. Except
for the forward basing issue, relatively little of the expansion is
directly related to the traditional high priority issues concerning Soviet
military capabilities and intentions. This is not especially surprising
for the latter are immutable requirements driving much of the Intelligence
Community's effort. The big swings are in specific geographic areas--and,
to a lesser degree, in issues like international energy, Islam, and the
like. (S)
3. In thinking about what the swings--in evidence in the new NITCI
list--portend for the future, I am first struck by our chronic inability
to predict them.
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While suspect we can
do better in predicting the coming imbroglios, I am also convinced that
we will always fall short. One conclusion that I draw from this is that
as long as our country remains a world power with worldwide interests,
CIA must maintain a broad level of expertise and capability against the
eventuality of some parlous and unforeseen turn of events. Thus, we may
want to maintain stations and analysts in laces like
Of course, this as been 0
wh at s new is the pressure arisinrom
constrained resources that make it more difficult to maintain a capa-
bility against an unknown or even unknowable need. The challenge to Agency
managers is to maintain this capability in a resource-tight environment.
(s)
4. Another conclusion I came to is that the NIT and similar exercises
in substantive requirements, whatever their merits, are not particularly
useful tools for making resource decisions. The mechanisms are trouble-
some-the NITs will always be out of sync with the budget calendar. But
more important is the lack of parallelism between an expression of interest
in substantive issues and resource allocation. The former, no matter how
thoughtful or detailed, is outside the. intelligence process per se and
does not usually concern itself directly with the input and output equation
that lies at the heart of resource allocation. Thus, the_policymakers tell
us they need to know about the intentions of the new regime in Managua,
but it is up to us to determine what kind and amount of resources it will
take to get such information. (S)
5. In sum, the guidance I get out of the new NITCI list is that we
are not likely to see a narrowing of the intelligence focus in coming
months and years. The need for analysis and human source collection is
likely to grow, particularly in the Third World and international issues
even while the more traditional areas of concern show no diminution in
their impact-on America's policy and position, and hence no diminution in
the need for good intelligence. (S)
James H. Ta for
Attachment:
Survey of Recent Changes to the NITCI
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A Survey of Recent Changes to the
National Intelligence Topics of Current Intelligence
The recent revisions made by the PRC(I) to the National Intelli-
gence Topics of Current Interest (NITCI) illustrate a familiar phenomenon,
namely the tendencies of intelligence consumers to elaborate their needs
as the situation changes and to expand rather than contract their definition
of desired if not essential information. The NITs of Current Interest were
designed to have a limited horizon--the next six to nine months--but many
of them in fact are fundamental, longstanding requirements. The new and
old lists are both shown in the attachment; the latest changes are under-
lined and placed directly opposite the original list to provide a graphic
exposition. (U)
A Qualitative overview
Overall the PRC(I) representatives appeared to be reacting to a
number of recent developments that have had a substantial effect on US
policy thinking and to a few longer term trends that have been apparent
for some time, but are now. intruding more forcefully on US interests and
policy decisions. (C)
Those recent developments that are reflected in several of the changes
are the Iranian revolution, turbulence in Central America, and the normal-
ization of relations between the US and China. The longer term trends that
appear to be preoccupying a growing number of important US intelligence
consumers are the increasing interdependence of the major trading nations
of the world--with a growing complexity and fragility of the world trade
network---and the increasing importance of the theater nuclear force issue
to US relations with its NATO allies and in evaluating the NATO-Pact balance.
A third longer term trend which has assumed new prominence since the Iranian
revolution is the rise of Islamic fundamentalism throughout the Near East.
(S)
On a section-by-section basis:
A. Advanced Countries--There is an elaboration of individual ques-
tions dealing with international trade and finance indicating
heightened interest in acquiring more information on the role
of the dollar and likely payments patterns over the near term.
The new topics focus on recent efforts by both the USSR and China
to improve relations with Western Europe, on the implications
of renewed interest in NATO theater nuclear force modernization,
and on likely reaction of West European leaders to having THE
raised as an arms control subject. (S)
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B. USSR and Eastern Europe---Here, like in the section on advanced
countries, there is a new emphasis on the role of TNF in the
calculation of military strength and political leverage as well
as the likelihood of US-Soviet arms control negotiations taking
up this issue. The other major source of change to this section
is the proliferation and the allocation of priorities between
military and economic needs. The additional topics are concerned
with how demographic and economic pressures are complicating
Soviet policy toward minority nationalities--the Iranian revolu-
tion has spotlighted these developments-and a resurgence of
Soviet activity in the Third World, especially in the Pacific
region. (S)
C. China-This section had fewer changes than any other although
several of the' items were expanded to indicate interest in
obtaining information on the effect of US normalization with
China. The single new topic concerns Chinese attitudes toward
nuclear arms control. (S)
D. Key Developing Countries--Argentina was added to the group, bring-
ing the total to nine. Events in Iran appear to have been the
motivator for.the increased emphasis on evaluating the prospects
for political stability. Two of the three new items concentrate
on the possible development of a fundamentalist Islamic revival
in South and Southeast Asia as well as the Middle East. (S)
E. Less Developed Countries--A new topic has been added to this
section calling for an overall evaluation of progress toward
development in the LDCs. Also added to the list are requests for
an assessment of the situation in Nicaragua and for the. trends in
the Francophone areas of West and Central Africa. These additions
are somewhat counterbalanced by the deletion of two items concerning
possible unrest in the Caribbean and Cuban intervention in Africa.
These latter two topics were not dropped from the set of policy
concerns, but were transferred to the section entitled "Critical
Areas of Concern." (S)
F. Global Issues-The size of the section has been increased by 50
percent with the addition of three new topics: Technology Transfer,
North-South Issues, and the Nonaligned Movement. The descrip-
tion of intelligence requirements associated with the six issues
comprising the original list needed only minor fixes. Not sur-
prisingly the item on energy now calls for a reassessment in
the wake of events in Iran. Several questions were added to the
International Terrorism topic aimed at getting further information
about the activities of individual groups and the extent of their
cooperation with each other. (S)
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G. Critical Areas of Concern--As in the Global Issues section,
the outline of topics included in the original version of
this section required scant revision. However, twelve new
items (topics and subtopics) were added to the section almost
doubling its size. The new subjects especially focus on
Africa and Asia, but include the Middle East and Caribbean
as well. Among the additions are:
Africa
How are events in central Africa developing particularly
in Zambia, Zaire and Angola? What is the likely evolution in
Namibia? What are Ethiopia's intentions toward its neighbors
and internal dissidents?
Asia
What are the economic prospects for South Korea? How
will the reassessment of North Korean order of battle, affect
South Korea, Japan and the rest of East Asia?
Are events in Indochina likely to affect relations among
major powers?
Middle East
Is a realignment of Arab States occurring?
Caribbean
What are the implications of Cuba's receipt of new Soviet
offensive weapons and its growing involvement in Central America?
What are Cuban intentions in Africa and the Middle East? (S)
A Quantitative Overview
The original list.-of NITCIs had 59 separately identified topics and
subtopics. The recent revisions. included' 30 additions and 3 deletions for
a net increase of 27 items raising the new total to 86, about 45 percent
more. These calculations do not reflect the magnitude of the increase
in intelligence needs, however, because modifications were made to 39
of the original 59 NITCIs and virtually every change involved adding new
questions. The combined effect of all the revisions is to almost double
the number of specific questions posed for the Community by the PRC(I).
Overall the number of specific questions increased from 130 to 234; the
largest growth occurring in Section VII, Critical Areas of Concern, which
went from 25 to 62. The table on the next page summarizes the changes
to topics, questions, and priorities. (C)
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Section
Topics on
Ori g i na l Li st
I.
Advanced Countries
7
(15)*
II.
USSR & East Europe
12
(32)
III.
China
6
(17)
IV.
Key Developing
10
(21)
V.
Less Developed
3
(6)
VI.
Global Issues
6
(14)
II.
Critical Areas
15
(25)
of Concern
TOTAL
59
(130)
Deletions
No Change Modified
Add
To
ics on
p
New List
0
2
5
5
12
(29)*
0
4
8
3
15
(54)
;
e
4
1
7
(18)
1
2
7
3
12
(28)
2
0
1
3
4
(8)
0
1
5
3
9
(35)
0
7
8
12
27
(62)
3
18
38
30
86
(234)
There are only a few changes in priority for existing topics but
again the direction of change is to increase criticality with four
adjustments upward (two from C to B, one from B to A, and one---on the
..outlook for Iran--from C to A) and one downward (B to C) concerning
the likelihood of crises arising in any of the LDCs in the near term.
Most of the new topics (17 of 30) are priority C. (S)
Figures in parentheses represent the number of specific
'N., questions.
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 Approved Fc[,5Vjff0&1?EFP#g269R001400070003-6
James H. Taylor
Comptroller
TO: (Officer designation, ra2.n -,umber, and
I building)
I-.
FO
t-Al RM ' . 610 U5 EDtTOt4S
COMMENTS (Nuenbcr each comment to show f,c.m whorl
to whom. Dow a lino across column after each comment.)
SECRET ^ CONFIDENTIAL f u E or LY
Q UNCLASSIFIED
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