NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY TUESDAY 20 DECEMBER 1983

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T01094R000600010067-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 18
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 2, 2010
• Sequence Number: 67
• Publication Date: December 20, 1983
• Content Type: REPORT

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Director of
Central
Intelligence
Top SeGlFe!
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Contents
Angola-South Africa: Military Developments
Japan: Postelection Politicking
China: Ideological Campaign in Disarray
USSR-US: Possible Halt in Nickel Sales
Europe: Criticism of Superpowers
El Salvador: Military Activity
Oman-UK: Decision To Buy Fighter Aircraft
USSR-Finland: Understanding on Air Defense
Malaysia: Constitutional Dispute Resolved
Top Secret
20 December 1983
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ANGOLA-SOUTH AFRICA: Military Developments
Luanda charges that South African forces recently attacked its
positions in the south and has rejected Pretoria's conditional offer to
withdraw its troops from Angola temporarily.
Angola claims that since last Wednesday South African ground
forces have moved from Xangongo toward the Angolan garrison at
Mulondo. It also alleges that over the weekend South African aircraft
bombed government forces at Mulondo and Caiundo.
Pretoria announced on Friday that its forces are en a ed only in
''hot pursuit'operations against SWAPO insurgents. 25X1
Xangongo is being used to resupply South 25X1
Luanda rejected Pretoria's offer last week to withdraw its troops
from southern Angola on 31 January for one month in exchange for
assurances that Cuban, Angolan, and SWAPO forces would not
exploit the move. A SWAPO spokesman also rejected the offer
because it would require the insurgents to declare a cease-fire.
Comment: South Africa sent forces to Xangongo last week,
reportedly to attack SWAPO guerrillas in the Cahama area.
Luanda's summary rejection of Pretoria's offer reflects its
continuing effort to stop the latter from sidetracking the UN debate
on the South African presence in Angola. It also is a sign of the
strength of the hardliners in Luanda, who oppose a withdrawal of
Cuban troops.
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Japanese Election Results
Previous
Diet
Final
Result
Gains/
Losses
Liberal Democratic Party
284
250
- 34
Japan Socialist Party
101
112
+ 11
Komeito
34
58
+ 24
Democratic Socialist Party
31
38
+ 7
Japanese Communist Party
29
26
- 3
New Liberal Club
10
8
- 2
Social Democratic Alliance
3
3
Independents
4
16
+12 a
Vacancies
15
Total
511
511
At least 9 Independents have agreed to join the Liberal Democrats.
New
Balance
Gains/
Losses
Tanaka
61
- 3
Suzuki
49
-13
Nakasone
40
- 7
Fukuda
46 _
- 6
Komoto
28
- 2
Nakagawa
7
+ 1
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20 December 1983
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JAPAN: Postelection Politicking
The Liberal Democratic Party's failure to win an absolute majority
of 256 seats in the lower house election will provoke a round of
factional wrangling that could lead to Prime Minister Nakasone's
resignation.
Members of the two major factions opposing Nakasone have
hinted that he should step down. The Prime Minister told reporters
yesterday, however, that he intends to remain in office to ensure
continuity in international and economic policy. According to one
press report, the factions of former Prime Ministers Tanaka and
Suzuki will continue to back him.
Meanwhile, nine independents have announced they will join the
Liberal Democrats. This will give the party a slim majority in the lower
house.
Comment: Meetings among key leaders of the Liberal
Democratic Party over the next few days will determine whether
Nakasone remains as prime minister. Party leaders probably will find
it difficult to agree on a replacement acceptable to all factions
Tanaka faction leader Nikaido was widely rumored to be a
possible caretaker prime minister. He bears some responsibility for
the election setback, however, because he directed the campaign.
The Tanaka faction, which remains the most powerful in the party, will
resist allowing a rival faction to assume power.
Intraparty skirmishing is most likely to occur during the selection
of a new cabinet. Rival faction leaders will demand a larger role, and
Nakasone will have to accommodate them as well as his allies in the
Tanaka and Suzuki factions.
The new cabinet should approve the budget for FY84 by early
January. Nakasone's weakened political position will allow opponents
of increased defense spending to lobby against the Prime Minister's
planned increases. The Liberal Democratic Party's poor showing in
rural districts may make it more difficult for Nakasone to offer
Washington concessions on agricultural imports.
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CHINA: Ideological Campaign in Disarray
Chinese leaders recently have taken steps to limit the scope of the
crusade against "spiritual pollution," but they have been unable to
resolve the confusion the campaign has caused.
Since Deng Xiaoping initiated the campaign against ''cultural
contamination" at a Central Committee meeting in October, it has
dominated the national media, despite the absence of official
guidance on how to carry it out. The lack of direction reportedly has
led to abuses at local levels, with conservative party cadre using the
campaign to attack everything from party-sanctioned policies on
agricultural reform to women's hairstyles.
In mid-November the party began to try to limit the adverse
effects of the campaign. A commentary in People's Daily on
8 December instructed party members that the slogan "eliminate
spiritual pollution" should not be mentioned in the countryside. Party
leaders have sought to insulate foreign policy, foreign trade, and work
on science from the effects of the campaign.
Comment: The move to restrain the campaign in the rural areas is
a gain for party moderates in their quest to protect their reform
program from criticism. The fact that they have had to defend
agricultural reform, their most successful policy, from ideological
attack reflects the depth of current disagreements.
There are persistent hints of conflict in the Politburo over the
targets, methods, and duration of the campaign. The excision from
some party newspapers of recent remarks by General Secretary Hu
Yaobang on spiritual pollution will provoke further speculation on his
prospects for succeeding Deng
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4 20 December 1983
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USSR-US: Possible Halt in Nickel Sales
The Soviets seem prepared to forgo hard currency earnings rather
than accede to Washington's demand that they certify that the nickel
they sell in the US is of non-Cuban origin.
The US ban on Soviet nickel imports will become effective this
week. After that time certification negotiations may still continue, but
only Soviet nickel certified to be of non-Cuban origin will be allowed
into the US.I
A US businessman, who has been in contact with Soviet officials
on this issue, believes that the USSR will not agree to an
intergovernmental certification agreement with the US but will view it
as an attempt to drive a wedge between it and Cuba. He believes,
however, that the Soviets might agree to certify that their exports do
not include Cuban nickel if an agreement could be concluded through
strictly commercial channels.
Comment: The US has invoked this legislation against Cuban
nickel four times in the past two years against Western nations, but
this is the first time it has been used against the USSR. In the earlier
instances, the issue has been resolved throw h the successful
conclusion of certification arrangements.
Soviet unwillingness to accede to any certification agreement may
be due in part to US insistence on reliable and verifiable procedures.
Moscow probably would oppose a US request for on-site inspection.
The Soviets are likely to view the US action primarily as a political
move to penalize them for their support of Cuba.
The loss of US nickel sales-roughly $20 million annually-would
not be burdensome to Moscow. Japan has already restricted trade in
nickel with Cuba, and it also may consider curtailing trade with the
USSR. West Germany and other major Western importers may
soon take similar action, which would put Soviet losses closer to
$100 million-a significant cut.
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5 20 December 1983
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EUROPE: Criticism of Superpowers
The stalemate in Soviet-US arms control negotiations is provoking
several smaller European countries, including some members of
NATO, to condemn both superpowers for failing to honor
obligations under the Non-Proliferation Treaty.
Under Article VI of the Treaty, the USSR, the US, and the UK are
obligated to pursue negotiations in good faith toward measures
designed to promote nuclear disarmament. Romanian President
Ceausescu, in an unpublicized letter to President Reagan on
2 November, characterized any new nuclear deployments in Europe
by either the USSR or the US as a violation of Article VI. According to
Yugoslav diplomats, Bucharest is contemplating an initiative to
highlight this issue next April at the first preparatory meeting for the
Non-Proliferation Treaty Review Conference in 1985.
Comment: These initiatives illustrate the sentiment that is
building within the smaller European nations to link the nuclear
disarmament issue to the future of the nonproliferation system.
Yugoslavia and Sweden previously have been the only European
nations willing to support Third World efforts to condemn the
I
performance of the nuclear weapons states on Article VI.
a protracted s a ema a in
Soviet-US arms control negotiations almost certainly will result in
greater European-based support for the efforts of developing
countries to transform the Review Conference into a referendum on
the record of the nuclear weapons states on Article VI.
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Honduras
~x~ ` xl x~tl\PUr'~x
c
j Cerro Cacahuatique
v r
w. } Ciudad Barrios'
Morazan
an
Vicente l
1
El Salvador
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San Miguel
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EL SALVADOR: Military Activity
The Army has retaken lost ground in the east, but it suffered
heavy losses in the recent fighting there. The guerrillas routed an
Army battalion, and they claim that over 80 government troops were
killed or wounded and that 60 weapons were captured. The US
defense attache says some 83 personnel are still missing.
Comment: Despite the tactical setback, the new military
command was able to counterattack quickly, and it adjusted well to
the rapidly changing battlefield situation. As new field commanders
become more familiar with the capabilities of their forces, some of the
current difficulties probably will be alleviated. The Army may try to
avenge the defeat by organizing more aggressive operations against
the insurgents, particularly in the east.
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7 20 December 1983
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OMAN-UK: Decision To Buy Fighter Aircraft
The US defense attache in Muscat reports Oman has decided to
buy eight Tornado air defense fighters from the UK for $500 million to
replace aging Hunter aircraft. Oman will not use defense funds of the
Gulf Cooperation Council for the purchase but will seek outside
financing.
Comment: The British exploited their extensive influence in Oman
to make the sale. Other members of the Gulf Cooperation Council
have opposed Oman's consideration of the British aircraft, preferring
to standardize their air forces with US and French equipment. The use
of nondefense funds for the purchase may indicate that the Omanis
intend to use Council defense funding to buy US air defense
equipment, or possibly a US or French fighter.
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USSR-FINLAND: Understanding on Air Defense
The Finnish Foreign Minister, after meeting with Soviet Foreign
Minister Gromyko last Tuesday, told the press that the USSR does
not expect Finland to take any special measures-presumably
beyond treaty obligations to defend its borders-to prevent cruise
missiles from attacking the USSR through Finnish airspace. A few
days earlier Soviet General Tatarniko stated in a Finnish newspaper
interview that Finland was responsible for protecting its own airspace
from incursions by NATO cruise missiles. He implied, however, that
the USSR reserved the right to take defensive action against
incoming missiles before they enter Soviet airspace.
Comment: Some Finns have been concerned that, because of
INF deployments, the Soviets would request consultations on
common defensive measures. Such talks are provided for by the
Finnish-Soviet Treaty of 1948 obligating Finland to defend against
threats by West Germany and its allies to attack Finland or the USSR
through Finland. The Soviets appear to have decided that any move
to invoke the consultative provisions would unnecessarily damage
bilateral relations.
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MALAYSIA: Constitutional Dispute Resolved
Prime Minister Mahathir and Malaysia's sultans have ended the
four-month deadlock over royal prerogatives with a compromise
reducing the King's ability to obstruct legislation. The compromise
allows the parliament-where Mahathir's party has an overwhelming
majority-to override a royal veto by a two-thirds vote. In return, the
sultans retain their prerogatives at the local level.
Comment: Mahathir's tough tactics heightened political tensions
and left him vulnerable to criticism from conservative opponents in his
party. These opponents now are likely to challenge his leadership at
the national party meeting next May. To maintain party leadership,
Mahathir may be forced to adopt a harder position on some policy
issues, possibly including Malaysia's position on international
commodity issues.
Top Secret
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