NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY FRIDAY 16 DECEMBER 1983

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T01094R000600010056-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 2, 2010
• Sequence Number: 56
• Publication Date: December 16, 1983
• Content Type: REPORT

Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/12 : CIA-RDP85TO1094R000600010056-9
Director of Top Smn et
Central
Intelligence
National Intelligence Daily
Friday
16 December 1983
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/12 : CIA-RDP85TO1094R000600010056-9
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/12 : CIA-RDP85TO1094R000600010056-9
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/12 : CIA-RDP85TO1094R000600010056-9
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/12 : CIA-RDP85TO1094R000600010056-9
Top Secret
Contents
USSR-US-Syria: Soviet Warning
USSR: Reassurances on Arms Control
Angola-South Africa-UN: Security Council Debate
China-UK-Hong Kong: New Developments in Talks
Poland: Problems in the Army
Bolivia: Political Unrest
Kampuchea-China: Coalition Leaders Visit
Africa: Portuguese-Speaking Summit
12
13
16 December 1983
Top Secret
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/12 : CIA-RDP85TO1094R000600010056-9
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/12 : CIA-RDP85T01094R000600010056-9
Top Secret
USSR-US-SYRIA: Soviet Warning
The Soviets are issuing ambiguous warnings that the USSR will
respond to a US attack on Syria while proposing US-Soviet
cooperation in reducing current tensions in the Middle East.
US participants at two recently concluded US-Soviet conferences
in Moscow say Soviet Middle East specialists expressed concern
about a possible US-Soviet clash in the Middle East. The remarks-
made before the US retaliatory raids against Syrian positions in
Lebanon-did not specify the nature of the response. Foreign
Minister Gromyko, echoing these warnings, yesterday cautioned the
US Ambassador that the US Government should be aware of the
danger to peace in the Middle East posed by US and Israeli actions.
Oriental Institute chief Primakov proposed a bilateral effort to
impose a peace agreement on the Arabs and the Israelis. The Soviet
participants intimated Moscow would like to help the US arrange a
peace settlement on Lebanon, but they offered no specifics.
Meanwhile, a US participant at one of the conferences reported
that Soviet officials referred to a memorandum sent about two
months ago from General Secretary Andropov to the Central
Committee's International Department. According to the Soviets,
Andropov stated that Soviet policy in the Middle East had been too
reactive and that Moscow should take more initiative in the region.
Comment: This recent Soviet approach is consistent with other
indications of Moscow's concern that a US-Syrian conflict over
Lebanon could escalate and compel the USSR to offer direct military
support to Syria or lose its credibility in the Arab world. Moscow's
most authoritative public responses to US military action against
Syrian positions in Lebanon, however, have avoided specific
commitments. Moscow has offered no political or military indication
that would encourage Damascus to believe the USSR would protect
Syria's interests there.
Primakov's proposal suggests that Moscow remains eager for a
dialogue with the US on the Middle East, but it almost certainly does
not expect a favorable US response. Soviet participants at the
conferences conceded that Moscow has little inclination to contribute
to a Middle East peace by urging Damascus to change its position.
The unusual recent trips by Soviet officials to Algeria and Oman
may reflect new efforts in response to Andropov's call for a more
assertive Soviet policy in the Middle East.
Tog) Secret
1 16 December 1983
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/12 : CIA-RDP85T01094R000600010056-9
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/12 : CIA-RDP85TO1094R000600010056-9
Top Secret
The regime has delivered two authoritative statements in an effort
to rationalize its suspension of arms control talks with the West and to
assuage domestic concerns over its actions.)
A Pravda editorial today and a speech by Defense Minister
Ustinov to a military audience on Wednesday accused the US of
seeking to upset the nuclear military balance in Europe but portrayed
the USSR's INF counterdeployments as an "adequate" response.
Pravda sought to justify Soviet actions by placing responsibility on the
US for "wrecking" the arms talks, but asserted that there was "no
shortage of good will" in Moscow on reaching "broad and radical"
arms accords. It claimed that the USSR was not interested in
generating hostility toward the US.I
Ustinov claimed that the US is stepping up confrontation with the
USSR but reassured his audience of military veterans that the West is
"far from omnipotent" and that "we of the older generation have
experienced times which have been much harder than the present."
The Pravda article warned, however, that for Western Europe "the
risk of retribution increases ... particularly for the FRG" because of
the deployment of Pershing II missiles on its territory.F__1
Comment: The tone of both statements was calm and reasoned.
The Soviet leadership apparently felt compelled to dispel concerns
among the populace that its suspension of arms control talks and its
recent rhetoric signal a possible confrontation with the West.
Ustinov's speech was noticeably more calming in both tone and
substance than a similar speech late last month, although that speech
also had described Moscow's countermeasures as adequate.
Ustinov's address continues to give him public prominence as the
main spokesman during Andropov's four-month absence, further
attesting to his key role as a trusted ally of the ailing General
Secretary.
Top Secret
2 16 December 1983
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/12 : CIA-RDP85TO1094R000600010056-9
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/12 : CIA-RDP85TO1094R000600010056-9
Iq
Next 3 Page(s) In Document Denied
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/12 : CIA-RDP85TO1094R000600010056-9
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/12 : CIA-RDP85T01094R000600010056-9
Top Secret
ANGOLA-SOUTH AFRICA-UN: Security Council Debate
The US Mission to the UN reports that debate probably will begin
today on Angola's request that the Security Council address the
presence of South African troops on Angolan territory.
Luanda's appeal follows a recent series of harsh denunciations by
black African states of the US and South Africa for their efforts to link
carrying out the UN plan for Namibian independence to a Cuban
troop withdrawal from Angola. The Angolans have said privately,
however, that they want only a short and generally noncontentious
Comment: Frustration among black African states over South
Africa's insistence that Cuban troops leave Angola in connection with
a Namibian settlement has been mounting since the middle of last
year, when negotiations had been completed on all major Namibian-
related issues. Debate on the South African buffer zone in southern
Angola-which Pretoria has maintained since September 1981-may
become strongly anti-US, particularly if the current South African
operation should result in a clash with Angolan and Cuban forces
stationed along their defensive line.
Top Secret
F
5 16 December 1983
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/12 : CIA-RDP85T01094R000600010056-9
25X1
25X1
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/12 : CIA-RDP85T01094R000600010056-9
Top Secret
CHINA-UK-HONG KONG: New Developments in Talks
China and the UK made some progress in talks last week on Hong
British officials indicate that for the first time the Chinese
responded to the UK's suggestions on how Hong Kong could operate
under Chinese sovereignty. The Chinese agreed to discuss how Hong
Kong's independent economic status and judiciary can be
The British attribute this progress to their efforts to overcome
China's distrust of Prime Minister Thatcher. In October Thatcher
moved to break the stalemate by dropping her insistence on a formal
British presence after 1997 and by agreeing to negotiate on the basis
of China's plan for administering Hong Kong.
Shortly afterward, however, Thatcher publicly reiterated London's
interest in maintaining a link to Hong Kong after 1997. This prompted
Beijing to take a tough stand at the talks in November on its right to
London says it then sought to reassure the Chinese that it
understands their opposition to a British constitutional link to Hong
Kong and a formal British administrative role there after 1997.
Although the British have indicated privately that they still want such a
role, they do not intend to press the issue at this time.
The British say the only unwelcome development at the latest
talks was a Chinese proposal to station a symbolic contingent of
troops in Hong Kong after 1997. London ohiPc.tPd strongly and hopes
Beijing will not pursue the issue.
Comment: The talks could make progress in the next few months
on less controversial issues such as Hong Kong's future currency and
tax structure. The British are anxious to keep negotiation oing to
maintain public confidence in the colony
The talks are likely to bog down again, however, on more
fundamental issues such as Hong Kong's future administrative
structure and autonomy guarantees. The British are still under
pressure from Hong Kong's business community not to give in to
Top Secret
6 16 December 1983
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/12 : CIA-RDP85T01094R000600010056-9
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/12 : CIA-RDP85T01094R000600010056-9
Top Secret
POLAND: Problems in the Army
The ferment from the Solidarity era has caused persisting morale
and recruitment problems for the Army,
25X1
25X1
Desertions are on the rise, and some soldiers still harbor strong
sympathies for Solidarity. The military reportedly failed this year to
retain the planned number of career soldiers. There were fewer
applicants for officer training and more requests by junior officers to
leave the service
The regime has tried to counter such trends by intensifying
political indoctrination of the troops. It is portraying the armed forces
as the savior of the Polish nation
Comment: Other Warsaw Pact armed forces have encountered
recruitment and retention problems. Those in Poland, however,
appear more serious.
The failure to meet recruitment and retention goals provides
another indication that the military's standing has been damaged by
martial law. The discipline and morale problems do not seem serious
enough to prevent the Army from fulfilling its domestic security duties,
but the regime is probably anxious to prevent the difficulties from
becoming worse. It is likely to resort to even more rigorous political
education as a solution, but such attempts may only provoke a more
negative reaction
Top Secret
7 16 December 1983
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/12 : CIA-RDP85T01094R000600010056-9
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/12 : CIA-RDP85T01094R000600010056-9
Top Secret
Growing congressional and labor opposition will add to President
Siles's political difficulties but probably will not force him from power
any time soon.
The economic adjustment measures announced last month led to
a two-day general strike early this week. A subsequent congressional
censure of Siles's cabinet prompted the ministers to resign en masse
on Wednesday. The Foreign Minister announced that the resignations
would allow Siles to form a new cabinet and negotiate a truce with
opposition parties.
The US Embassy believes that Siles is unlikely to be ousted
during the next two months.
Comment: Siles already has survived two cabinet crises in the
past year. Opposition political leaders are still maneuvering to force
him to resign, but his persistence, the coming holiday season)
probably will buy him some time.
Even if he finishes the year, however, economic problems, labor
discontent, and military unrest over links between terrorist groups
and administration advisers will ensure that the threat to the
President's position will resurface early next year.
Top Secret
8 16 December 1983
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/12 : CIA-RDP85T01094R000600010056-9
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/12 : CIA-RDP85TO1094R000600010056-9
Iq
Next 5 Page(s) In Document Denied
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/12 : CIA-RDP85TO1094R000600010056-9
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/12 : CIA-RDP85TO1094R000600010056-9
Top Secret
Leaders of the three factions in the Kampuchean resistance
coalition are in Beijing to confer with the Chinese on the current
military situation in Kampuchea. It is the first time the three leaders
have met since the formation of the coalition in June 1982.
Comment: China probably will use the meeting to encourage
unity among the groups and indicate its strong backing for the
coalition, as Vietnam continues to prepare for major operations
against key resistance bases. Although non-Communist resistance
leaders Son Sann and Prince Sihanouk are likely to appeal for
additional military aid, Beijing probably will refuse
The om
Democratic Kampuchean forces receive Chinese supplies on a regular
basis.
Top Secret
12 16 December 1983
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/12 : CIA-RDP85TO1094R000600010056-9
25X1
25X1
25X1
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/12 : CIA-RDP85TO1094R000600010056-9
Top Secret
AFRICA: Portuguese-Speaking Summit
The fourth summit meeting of Africa's five Portuguese-speaking
countries, scheduled to begin tomorrow in Guinea-Bissau, will
continue efforts among Lisbon's former colonies to improve relations
and strengthen economic ties. Embassy reporting in recent months
suggests that some of the five Marxist-led governments are
considering moderating their foreign policy positions in return for
much-needed Western economic assistance. A senior Cape Verdean
official says his country and Mozambique will strongly urge Angola to
resume talks with the US on a possible Cuban troop withdrawal.
Comment: As in previous years, the summit probably will focus
heavily on political and economic instability in southern Africa and on
the effects on Angola and Mozambique. The participants may temper
their customary anti-Western attacks and condemnations of Pretoria
in an attempt to persuade the West that they are willing to hew less
closely to their customary pro-Soviet line. In addition, Mozambique
may fear that any censure of South Africa could disrupt still-fragile
efforts to establish a constructive dialogue between Pretoria and
Maputo.F-7
Top Secret
13 16 December 1983
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/12 : CIA-RDP85TO1094R000600010056-9
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/12 : CIA-RDP85TO1094R000600010056-9
Iq
Next 3 Page(s) In Document Denied
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/12 : CIA-RDP85TO1094R000600010056-9
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/12 : CIA-RDP85TO1094R000600010056-9
Top Secret
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/12 : CIA-RDP85TO1094R000600010056-9