NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY THURSDAY 15 DECEMBER 1983

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T01094R000600010051-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 18
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 2, 2010
• Sequence Number: 51
• Publication Date: December 15, 1983
• Content Type: REPORT

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Director of
Central
Intelligence
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285
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Contents
Japan: Lower House Elections
Syria-US-Lebanon: Military Tension
Grenada: Plans To Revive the New Jewel Movement
El Salvador: Renewed Fighting
Argentina: Human Rights Initiatives
Western Europe-US-China: Differences Over Trade
USSR: Gold Sales Limited
Top Secret
Czechoslovakia-West Germany: High-Level Visit Canceled 11
USSR-East Germany-West Germany: Soviet Views
Norway-Sweden: Arms Cooperation Agreement
Denmark: Elections in January Likely
14
14
15 December 1983
Top Secret
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The Liberal Democratic Party is likely to lose some seats in the
lower house election on Sunday, but its control of the Diet probably is
not in danger.
The party has to win 256 seats to retain a majority,
Comment: The Liberal Democratic Party's landslide victory in
1980 almost certainly guarantees it will lose seats this time. Other
uncertainties mark the campaign, especially the question of how
seriously the bribery conviction of former Prime Minister Tanaka-
Nakasone's major ally-will damage the party.
An unusually large number of Liberal Democrats and
independents are running. This will increase the possibility that close
races will be lost because of a split conservative vote. Bad weather,
which is forecast for election day, traditionally holds down the Liberal
Nonetheless, the weakness of most opposition parties, general
satisfaction with the standard of living, and the popularity of recently
enacted administrative reforms and a tax cut suggest the Liberal
Democrats will retain their majority.
Nakasone's political position-and thus his ability to take action
on issues of interest to the US-will depend on how the faction
leaders of the Liberal Democratic Party evaluate the party's
performance. His position as Prime Minister will be secure and his
chances for reelection as party president next November will be good,
if his rivals conclude that the party did as well as could be expected.
If the election goes poorly, Nakasone would have to deal with an
immediate struggle for influence in the party. He might even face a
challenge to his presidency from rival leaders in the party.
Top Secret
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Top Secret
Some members of the former government hope to revive the New
Jewel Movement along social democratic lines, and they are
searching for international support.
The group includes former cabinet ministers who are still in
Grenada and former diplomats in the US and the UK. It reportedly
plans to capitalize on residual popular approval of late Prime Minister
Bishop by establishing a memorial association that later could be
transformed into a political party.
So far, however, the pro-Bishop moderates have failed to get any
backin from the Socialist International.
Comment: No popular sentiment for a revival of the New Jewel
Movement has yet emerged in Grenada, but the perpetuation of the
memory of Bishop as a martyr could be a useful rallying point. The
party lacks organization and effective leadership. It needs
international support to survive and is running out of possible
sources.
Top Secret
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Top Secret
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Top Secret
15 December 1983
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EL SALVADOR: Renewed Fighting
The recent lull in military activity has ended, and heavy fighting is
under way in the east.
The US defense attache reports that on Tuesday guerrillas
attacked a National Guard unit at Ciudad Barrios and a newly trained
hunter battalion at nearby Cerro Cacahuatique. Other units-
including airborne troops-have been sent by helicopter to reinforce
the defenders, but the insurgents claim to have dislodged the
battalion with heavy losses. Helicopters, A-37 ground attack aircraft,
and some artillery are providing fire support for the government
forces.
Comment: The attacks may be the beginning of the offensive the
insurgents have planned for this month. Although their ultimate
objective remains unclear, they may be hoping only to draw Army
forces away from the central part of the country. In any case, the
fighting will test the Army's new command structure.
The military has some 18 medium-lift helicopters, about half of
which normally are fully operational, and 15 light helicopters. Its
ability to assemble elements of two battalions quickly and transport
them to the battlefront is likely to give the commanders a new
confidence both in the mobility of their forces and in their own
command and control.
Top Secret
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Top Secret
ARGENTINA: Human Rights Initiatives
President Alfonsin's quick action in moving to try military leaders
for human rights abuses is unlikely to provoke a serious reaction in the
armed forces, unless the effort becomes far more extensive.
Alfonsin has ordered trials for nine members of the junta who
served between the military takeover in 1976 and mid-1982. They will
be tried before military courts, but any appeals will go to civilian
tribunals. Lower ranking security officials also will be subject to
prosecution if they were not acting under specific orders.
The President also has announced plans to introduce legislation
repealing amnesty and antisubversion laws passed in the last months
of the military government. According to Alfonsin, however, he will
ask for new laws to counter subversion. Moreover, he says seven
terrorist leaders now in exile will stand trial if they return to Argentina.
Comment: Alfonsin has enough latitude to take these initial
steps, because they were expected and because the military is too
disorganized to oppose them. The President's fast action in carrying
out his campaign pledges may preempt-if only temporarily-human
rights activists who have called for more extensive investigations.
Moreover, as commander in chief, he can limit the number of
prosecutions.
Military officers are likely to be pleased with his plans to try
terrorists and to adopt tough antisubversive measures. On the other
hand, they will be apprehensive that the civilian appellate process
could cause a variety of problems that would be difficult to anticipate
and deal with. Military opposition to Alfonsin will intensify to the
extent he goes beyond current plans to prosecute only some former
members of the junta.
Top Secret
5 15 December 1983
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Top Secret
West European states almost certainly will take advantage of
COCOM meetings on controlling computer sales today and tomorrow
to complain about US moves to expand sales of controlled goods to
China.
Many member governments are concerned that, as a result of the
new US trade policy, COCOM is becoming swamped by the increased
number of requests for exceptions for sales to Beijing. They expect
pressure to establish special procedures to streamline the review
process for Chinese cases. Belgium has suggested China be taken off
the proscribed lists altogether, because COCOM cannot handle the
increased number of exception requests.
Comment: Most members-including the UK and West
Germany-oppose differentiating between China and other
Communist states and maintain that COCOM's review process has to
remain technical and uniform. West European apprehension about
the new US policy probably reflects an additional fear that
Washington is out to capture the market in sales of high technology to
China.
Most West Europeans do not believe increased technology
transfers to Beijing pose a potential security threat for the Allies.
Many COCOM members probably fear, however, that the new US
commercial policy toward China will aggravate the USSR's security
concerns and contribute to a further deterioration in East-West
relations.
Top Secret
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Top Secret
Continued improvement in the USSR's hard currency payments
position has enabled Moscow to cut back its gold sales in the
international gold market for the second year in a row.
Comment: This low level of gold sales reflects the success of the
USSR's two-year effort to limit the growth of its imports and to
improve its international payments position. Foreign exchange
receipts have been increased by a large volume of oil and gas
exports, and the good harvests this year have allowed a reduction in
grain and meat imports. As a result, gold sales this year, like those in
1982, probably will be well below the average level of recent years.
The Soviets sell gold mainly to finance trade with the West.
Barring a major decline in its balance of payments-possibly caused
by an agricultural setback-the USSR will have little incentive to
reenter the gold market in the early months of 1984. This will be the
case even if gold prices rise.
Top Secret
8 15 December 1983
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Top Secret
CZECHOSLOVAKIA-WEST GERMANY: High-Level Visit Canceled
The Czechoslovak Foreign Minister canceled a visit to Bonn this
week, apparently to show displeasure over INF deployments in
West Germany. According to a Western diplomat in Prague,
Czechoslovakia has decided to freeze political and military relations
with those countries receiving NATO INF deployments.
Comment: The Czechoslovak action may reflect Soviet pressure
on its allies to restrict political contacts with the West in order to
impress the West Europeans that INF deployments will damage
bilateral ties. Neither the Czechoslovaks nor their allies seem inclined,
however, to disrupt economic relationships with Western Europe.
Bonn is anxious to demonstrate that deployments will not damage
relations with the East, and it will seek to play down the cancellation.
USSR-EAST GERMANY-WEST GERMANY: Soviet Views
Comment: Moscow has always carefully monitored relations
between East Germany and West Germany. Senior Soviet leaders
probably have tolerated the recent improvement in relations because
of East Germany's current economic difficulties and because of the
USSR's inability to provide increased economic aid. Nonetheless,
they would not want East Germany to become too dependent on
West German assistance. Bonn has sought to use trade and financial
assistance to increase its influence in Eastern Europe.
Top Secret
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Top Secret
NORWAY-SWEDEN: Arms Cooperation Agreement
Norway and Sweden last month signed a 15-year agreement to
cooperate on research, development, and production of military
equipment. The agreement also is designed to balance arms sales
between the two countries. Sweden is interested in obtaining
Norwegian electronics and missile technology.
Comment: The Norwegians and Swedes apparently hope that
cooperation will strengthen their respective arms industries and lead
to greater self-sufficiency in weapons tailored to Nordic geography
and climate. Norway also may have been motivated by growing
frustration over the imbalance in its arms trade with the US. Oslo buys
a large amount of materiel from Sweden, and it will be the main
beneficiary under the new arrangement to balance its arms sales.
Oslo probably believes that cooperation with Stockholm eventually
could result in an alternate source of new technology.
-CIA, DIA. NSA-
DENMARK: Elections in January Likely
The US Embassy reports that the center-right minority
government probably will lose a parliamentary vote tomorrow on the
budget for next year, thereby setting the stage for elections in
January. The opposition Social Democrats have threatened to vote
against the budget for the first time since 1929. Prime Minister
Schlueter has said he would call an election if he were to lose a vote
on economic issues.
Comment: Polls indicate strong public support for the
government's economic policies, and elections would be likely to
return the current coalition to office. Nonetheless, many Social
Democrats-having decided not to call for a no-confidence vote on
security issues-probably believe that challenging economic policies
and offering alternatives provide a better chance to regain power over
the long term. The Social Democrats, for the most part, are likely to
hope that elections now would at least force the government to be
less inclined to take for granted opposition support on certain issues.
Top Secret
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Top Secret
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