NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY MONDAY 31 OCTOBER 1983

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T01094R000500020007-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 16
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 26, 2010
• Sequence Number: 7
• Publication Date: October 31, 1983
• Content Type: REPORT

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Central
Intelligence
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National Intelligence Daily
Monday
31 October 1983
(PAS NIT) R. - F .I X
31 October 1983
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ARGENTINA: Apparent Election Upset
Moderate leftist Radical Civic Union presidential candidate Raul
Alfonsin defeated the traditionally predominant Peronists in the
general election yesterday, according to press reports. Even if
Alfonsin is officially declared the winner, however, he still will have to
face the electoral college vote late next month. The Peronists have
not yet conceded the election and believe the outcome will favor them
when ballots in smaller provinces are tallied. Although some Peronist
leaders are claiming the election was rigged, fraud is unlikely given
the military's tight control of the voting and its preference for the
Peronist candidate. Sporadic violence has been reported in Buenos
Aires and its working-class suburbs.
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31 October 1983
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Contents
Grenada: First Steps Toward Interim Government ................ 1
Canada-Western Europe: Trudeau Visit ................................ 4
EC-US: Specialty Steel Dispute ..............................................
Poland: Amnesty for Activists ..................................................
South Africa: Constitutional Referendum ..............................
Special Analysis
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Top Secret
GRENADA: First Steps Toward Interim Government
Caribbean leaders gathered in Barbados on Saturday to discuss
preparations to form an interim government in Grenada. They also
conferred on plans to keep a regional peacekeeping force on the
island.
Grenadian Governor General Scoon-in a meeting with the US
Ambassador to Barbados, Barbadian Prime Minister Adams, and the
coordinator of the Regional Security Force in St. Georges-
announced that he would form a nonpolitical interim administration
to prepare for general elections and a return to constitutional
government. The temporary administration is to be established in the
next few days and will include prominent members of international
organizations and academia
In a radio address broadcast in Grenada, Scoon said that the 400
soldiers and national policemen from the eastern Caribbean countries
that took part in the landing would be formed into a security force.
The Governor General has ordered remaining members of the
People's Revolutionary Army and the militia to sto fighting and has
officially disbanded the armed forces.
Grenadian civilians are moving freely in the streets after having
been confined to their homes for 10 days. Press reports indicate,
however, that the island faces shortages of food and other basic
supplies.
Documents discovered by US forces in Grenada, meanwhile,
indicate that Moscow had promised to provide some $26.5 million in
military aid to Grenada between 1980 and 1985. The equipment was
to include armored personnel carriers, AK-47 rifles, and munitions.
The documents also indicate that North Korea had promised to
provide $12 million in military assistance.
a Swiss aircraft under the supervision
6t the international a ross was en route to Barbados and Grenada
yesterday to pick up Cuban dead and wounded. Authorities on the
two islands were to inform the Cuban Ambassador in Grenada that
able-bodied Cuban prisoners would not be returned until fighting
ceased. According to the Swiss Foreign Minister, a delegate from the
International Red Cross is in Grenada to discuss the situation of
Cuban prisoners with US authorities.
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The Cuban Foreign Ministry has informed the US Interests
Section in Havana that the Cuban Government will ensure its security
Comment: Large demonstrations in Havana are likely when
Cuban dead, wounded, and captured return home. Cuba appears
concerned about domestic reaction to any sign of submission to the
US by Cuban officials in Grenada.
Foreign Reactions
The USSR and its East European allies are preparing to launch a
major propaganda campaign. An article in Pravda on Saturday
accused "terrorists" in Washingtion of ordering "unprovoked
aggression" against "virtually defenseless Grenada."
Nicaragua and Cuba are heading a drive in the UN to obtain the
backing of 80 nations-a simple majority of the membership-to call
for an emergency special session of the General Assembly. They hope
to have enough support by today. The US Mission at the UN reports,
however, that the Nicaraguans and Cubans have encountered
problems
Comment: If Cuba and Nicaragua are successful, the UN
Secretary General will have to convene the special session within 24
hours. If they fail, however, Havana and Managua may try to have the
General Assembly vote on an anti-US resolution during its scheduled
meeting to select new Security Council members today.
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CANADA-WESTERN EUROPE: Trudeau Visit
Prime Minister Trudeau's planned visit to Western Europe from
8 to 11 November reflects his concern about East-West tensions and
is an attemot to strengthen the political standing of his government.
The trip, announced last Thursday, will include meetings with the
leaders of West Germany, France, Italy, Belgium, and the
Netherlands. Trudeau plans to discuss methods to improve prospects
for success of the Geneva disarmament talks.
Comment: The Canadian leader's effort is prompted in part by
his interest in reducing frictions between the US and the USSR. This
desire apparently is behind his offer to send Canadi
Grenada as part of a Commonwealth observer force.
The Prime Minister has not yet made definite disarmament
proposals, but he probably will make specific suggestions to West
European leaders. He is likely to base his proposals on the
recommendations of a high-level government task force established
earlier this fall.
The disarmament-oriented initiative also is an attempt to improve
the electoral prospects of Trudeau's government-his Liberals
currently trail the Tories in the polls by 39 points. The Liberals hope
that the peace effort, together with Ottawa's reluctance to support US
actions in Grenada, will contrast with Tory pronouncements on world
affairs. They portray novice Tory leader Mulroney as an unquestioning
supporter of US foreign policy goals.
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Top Secret
EC-US: Specialty Steel Dispute
Bonn will no longer block other Community members' attempts to
retaliate against the US for its specialty steel restrictions, according
to a West German Economics Ministry spokesman. The spokesman
said EC members, including the West Germans, are "fed up" with the
US over the issue. West Germany found unacceptable the most
recent US offer to lower some trade barriers as compensation for its
higher duties on specialty steel. Bonn was aggravated particularly by
the continued filing of antidumping suits by US steel producers
against West German firms, according to the spokesman.
Comment: The EC appears increasingly likely to retaliate if an
acceptable compensation arrangement cannot be worked out soon.
West Germany's apparent decision to stop acting as a mediator
within the EC may enable other members, particularly France, to push
through new trade restrictions against US products. The EC is likely
to take final action on its position at the Council meeting on
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Top Secret
POLAND: Amnesty for Activists
Government spokesman Jerzy Urban said Saturday that
11 Solidarity and other union leaders awaiting trial on charges of
trying to overthrow the state will be granted amnesty if they agree to
leave the country until Poland achieves "full stability." Urban said
the offer extends to the "overwhelming majority" of Poland's
approximately 2,000, political prisoners. A family member of one of
the prisoners said they already have rejected a similar previous
proposal. Solidarity's underground leadership called earlier for a
month-long campaign beginning today of demonstrations and
distribution of leaflets on behalf of political prisoners.
Comment: The unexpected announcement indicates that the
regime probably would like to avoid trials that the accused might turn
into showcases for antiregime views. The activists' likely rejection of
the offer and their subsequent trials and convictions, however, will
make it difficult for the government to offer them amnesty again-a
move Western diplomats have reported the regime was considering.
The response to the call for demonstrations may be small, particularly
since activists have been focusing attention on long-range
propaganda and social welfare programs.
South Africa's 2.3 million white voters are likely to approve the
new constitution in a referendum this Wednesday. The constitution
grants limited political rights to Coloreds and Indians. A senior South
African official has told a US diplomat that the cabinet expects a
55- to 60-percent "yes" vote, an estimate that is in line with recent US
Embassy predictions.
Comment: South African law prohibits polls within six weeks
of an election, and it seems probable that support for the new
constitution has slipped slightly from the 61 to 65 percent indicated
by polls in late August. Nonetheless, Prime Minister Botha has
mobilized the formidable National Party organization to limit
defections by conservative Afrikaners and to obtain support from
moderate English-speaking voters.
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Principal Lebanese Negotiators in Geneva
Amin Gemayel
41 years old ... Moronite from Phalange
family ... Phalange Politburo member for
13 years ... attempting to achieve a
political settlement acceptable to
opposition leaders ... under pressure
from Christians not to sacrifice Christian
predominance in Lebanon ... pro-US.
Walid Junblatt
34 years old ... Druze, from the Shuf ...
heads Progressive Socialist Party (PSP)
militia ... freedom of action circumscribed
by dependence on Syria and fear for
personal safety ... distrusts Christians and
particularly the Gemayels; suspects they
were behind assassination attempt in 1982
... wants wider Druze role in government.
Nabih Barri
44 years old ... Shia, leader of mainstream
Amal Movement, based in Beirut ...
wants government reforms to reflect
Muslim majority in Lebanon; willing to
compromise ... opposes partition that
might result in Shia southern Lebanon
under Israeli control.
Pierre Gemayel
78 years old ... Maronite, Amin's father
... traditional head of Phalange Party ...
hard-liner concerned only with preserving
Christian political power ... pro-Israeli;
suspects Syrians killed his son Bashir.
Sulayman Franjiyah
73 years old ... Maronite, former
President ... leader of northern Maronite
clan ... driven by hatred of Gemayels;
believes they killed his son Tony ...
long close to Assad.
Camille Shaman
83 years old ... Maronite, former
President ... traditional head of National
Liberal.Party from the Shuf ... rival of
Gemayels and Phalange, but shares
concern over Christian situation in
Lebanon ... pro-US and somewhat pro-
Israeli; opposed to Syrian presence in
Lebanon.
Rashid Karami
62 years old ... Sunni Muslim, former
Prime Min;-ter ... traditional leader of
Sunnis in "r.ipoli ... demands reforms
in government to reflect Muslim majority.
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31 October 1983
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Special Analysis
LEBANON: The National Reconciliation Conference
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The national reconciliation conference, which is expected to begin
today in Geneva, is unlikely to produce a quick solution to the
longstanding factional conflict. President Gemayel may try to
postpone dealing with Lebanon's political problems by inducing the
participants to join a government of national unity. Opposition leaders,
backed by Syria, probably will seek to have the conference focus first
on the Lebanese-Israeli withdrawal agreement. The various factions,
including Christian hardliners, will be tempte to use to force
concessions or forestall unpalatable reforms.
All of the invited factional leaders, except for moderate Christian
politician Raymond Edde, plan to attend the conference. Saudi Arabia
and Syria will have observers there.
.Even minor disagreements could disrupt the conference, in view
of personal animosities among those attending. Several of the
participants, for example, suspect that other conferees may have
sanctioned attempts I'- assassinate them or members of their
families
Gemayel may intend to finesse the issue of internal reform by
proposing that the participants form a government of national unity.
Under such a scheme, Gemayel might increase the membership of the
parliament and cabinet and appoint a prime minister acceptable to
Syria, to Druze leader Walid Junblatt, and to Shia leader
Nabih Barri.
Barri, Junblatt, and other opposition leaders will be reluctant to
agree to a government of national unity unless they have assurances
that Gemayel will carry out fundamental reforms that increase Muslim
influence in policymaking. Muslim politicians probably are prepared
to retain a Christian presidency, but they will insist that the executive
authority of the prime minister be strengthened.
Barri and Junblatt remain pessimistic that Christian hardliners in
the Phalange and Lebanese Forces will allow Gemayel to provide
such guarantees. Opposition leaders will look to the US to persuade
Gemayel to make concessions and to counteract hardline Christian
pressure on the President.
Foreign Policy Questions
Both the government and its opponents have a vested interest in
having the conference turn its attention quickly to the question of the
presence of foreign troops in Lebanon. The Syrian-backed National
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Salvation Front almost certainly will argue that the Lebanese-Israeli
withdrawal agreement should be frozen, if not abrogated, before
national political reforms can be discussed. Gemayel and many
Christians often have argued that Lebanon's problems are not
internal but the result of foreign interference in the country's affairs.
Lebanese Foreign Minister Salem says Gemayel, who will chair
the meeting, intends to open the conference with an acknowledgment
of Lebanon's special relationship with Syria. A discussion on the
withdrawal of foreign troops also is high on Gemayel's planned
agenda. The President may be prepared to suspend indefinitely the
Lebanese-Israeli withdrawal accord in return for concessions by Syria
and opposition forces on their demands for internal reforms.
Syrian Objectives
The Syrians are optimistic that the talks will result in progress
toward abrogation of the ,Lebanese-Israeli aareement and withdrawal
of MNF and Israeli forces
Damascus probably will start with tough talk on these issues. US
Embassy officials note, however, that Syria might agree to defer a
final decision on the agreement to a government of national unity,
since such a body would be stacked in advance to reject it.
Damascus also will seek concessions from Gemayel on the
redistribution of government and security jobs and a new
constitutional power-sharing formula that will weaken the influence of
the Phalange Party. Damascus wants a central government that is
relatively strong but that can be counted on to pursue pro-Syrian
foreign policies.
Outlook
Most Lebanese politicians have participated in unsuccessful
reconciliation conferences, and they are not confident that this
meeting will do better. Both Gemayel and his opposition are being
urged not to make substantial compromises. The President has to
answer not only to Christian extremists, including his father, but to
traditional Lebanese politicians who do not want their positions
undermined by more radical politicians such as Junblatt and Bard.
continued
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The conferees meeting in Switzerland are temporarily out of reach
from many of their extremist followers, but they recognize that any
agreements they reach in Geneva will have to be sold to their
constituencies back home. The bombings in Beirut last week remind
Lebanese poll ' are under the constant threat of
assassination.
The discussions may easily become stalemated over internal or
foreign policy issues. If a government of national unity is formed, it
could endure only by dealing with the demand for fundamental
political reforms. The participants at the conference might agree to
such a government, however, to buy time until the winter is over and
they can resume military action in the spring.
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