NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY WEDNESDAY 10 AUGUST 1983

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T01094R000400010035-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 22
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 20, 2010
• Sequence Number: 35
• Publication Date: August 10, 1983
• Content Type: REPORT

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Intelligence
National Intelligence Daily
Wednesday
10 August 1983
Top Secret-
CPAS NID 1
10 August 1983
Copy 285
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Contents
Libya-Chad: Closing in on Faya-Largeau ................................ 1
France-Chad: Political Reaction to Involvement .................... 2
France-Cuba: Results of Cheysson's Visit .............................. 3
Lebanon: Increasing Violence ..................................................
Upper Volta: Overtures Toward the West .............................. 6
Chile: Another Day of National Protest .................................. 7
Pakistan: Zia's Political Plans .................................................. 8
Iran: Continuing Unrest ............................................................ 9
Portugal: IMF Loan .................................................................. 10
Iraq-Iran: Iraqi Withdrawal Announced .................................. 11
UN-Cyprus: Proposal for a Settlement .................................. 12
Lesotho-South Africa: Planned Expulsion of Refugees ........ 13
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LIBYA-CHAD: Closing in on Faya-Largeau
French officials say Libyan and dissident forces are deployed
around Faya-Largeau and that they are likely to attack it today.
Garoua as a base for French combat aircraft.
The French Defense Ministry announced yesterday that about 180
French paratroopers from Central African Republic will move to
N'Djamena to serve as "instructors." The French Air Force has 12
Jaguar fighter-bombers and three tankers in central Africa and
C-160 cargo aircraft in Chad to help supply government forces.
France also reportedly is conferring with Cameroon about using
Foreign Minister Cheysson warned on Monday that intervention
by Libyan forces would have unspecified "consequences." Although
he claimed Paris and Washington are not coordinating their efforts,
a Foreign Ministry spokesman later said the remark reflected
Cheysson's desire that US and French moves not be viewed as a joint
action.
concerned about the possibility of French intervention.
Comment: Continuing bad weather at Aozou appears to be one
key factor that could delay the attack. Tripoli probably expects that
the Libyan and dissident forces' superior firepower will enable them
to recapture Faya-Largeau quickly. The Libyans do not appear overly
are chronically low.
The French troops being sent to N'Djamena probably are
intended as a demonstration of French resolve. A base in northern
Cameroon would allow French combat and tanker aircraft to move
closer to targets in Chad. Fuel supplies at the airport at N'Djamena
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FRANCE-CHAD: Political Reaction to Involvement
Domestic political reaction in France to events in Chad thus far
has been restrained, but President Mitterrand will come under
increasing pressure if it appears that he is not adequately protecting
French interests.
President can make the decision on the issue.
Gaullist leader Chirac and most other members of the opposition
publicly support the government. At the same time, they have not
given Mitterrand a blank check. Chirac, for example, has been
evasive on the matter of direct intervention and has said that only the
has refused comment.
Former Prime Minister Messmer, an old-line Gaullist, has warned
against intervention and raised the possibility of dividing Chad into
Libyan and French spheres of influence. Former President Giscard
extend to sending troops.
Comment: Mitterrand's political position is delicate. The
opposition's support for intervention is lukewarm and clearly does not
President's approval ratings at an alltime low of 28 percent.
fails to protect French interests in Chad. Recent polls show the
certainly believes, however, that the opposition will criticize him if he
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FRANCE-CUBA: Results of Cheysson's Visit
French Foreign Minister Cheysson's talks with Cuban President
Castro do not appear likely to lead to any initiatives.
. Cheysson completed a low-key, three-day trip to Cuba on
Saturday. According to the US Interests Section in Havana, Central
America was a main topic of discussion.
Castro reportedly adopted a restrained tone and tried to
persuade Cheysson to convey to the US Cuba's sincerity in seeking a
negotiated settlement. He said the Salvadoran insurgents have to
play a role in any settlement, but he repeated his publicly stated
willingness to withdraw his military advisers in Nicaragua and curtail
the flow of arms to Central America.
The Cuban leader did not rule out elections in El Salvador as part
of a solution. He indicated, however, that the guerrillas could not
participate in the election process as it currently is envisioned by the
US. He also said that an attempt at a military takeover would provoke
US intervention.
Cheysson stated that US special envoy Stone's negotiating
mission seems to hold more promise than the Contadora group's
initiative. He agreed that successful peace negotiations have to
include the direct participation of the Salvadoran insurgents.
Nonetheless, Cheysson said that France would have to pay lipservice
to the Contadora initiative.
Comment: Cheysson appears to have parried Castro's efforts to
involve France more actively in Central America. The French realize
that they have only limited leverage in the region.
Nevertheless, the French want to keep channels of
communications with Havana open because they hope that they can
reduce Cuba's dependence on the USSR. Cheysson also tried to
make the case that France and Cuba share a concern for national
independence of their respective countries and for improving
relations with the Third World.
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Christian 1.1iiltic
5 (august
Syria
pAMASCUS
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LEBANON: Increasing Violence
The car bombings over the weekend and a hardline public stance
by a Christian militia commander have dimmed the prospects for
Christian-Muslim cooperation as the Israelis prepare to withdraw from
the Shuf and Alayh region.
Prime Minister al-Wazzan and other Lebanese Muslim leaders
have denounced the bombings in Tripoli and Ba'labakk, which killed
54. Both incidents occurred in Syrian-dominated locations.
Before the bombings, a commander of the Christian Lebanese
Forces militia in the Shuf and Alayh area further antagonized the
Druze community by stating publicly that his militiamen have no
intention of pulling back from the mountains. The Druze have cited a
Christian withdrawal as a precondition for negotiating an end to the
fighting. A political adviser to the Lebanese Forces added that, while
the militia is dismantling some bases and barracks, it is leaving small
units in the mountain villages for local defense.
Comment: Extremists in the Lebanese Forces who favor a
partition of Lebanon may have carried out the bombings in order to
alienate Muslims from the central government. Muslims in the Beirut
area are likely to retaliate.
The Muslim community probably believes that President Gemayel
is doing nothing to control Christian-instigated terrorism. In addition
to damaging Gemayel's credibility, the violence increases the
likelihood that Lebanese Muslims will view Syria as a protector and
thus oppose Syrian troop withdrawals.
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UPPER VOLTA: Overtures Toward the West
Leftist Head of State Sankara is continuing attempts to convince
the West and moderate African states that he wants to maintain good
Sankara, in a meeting with US Embassy officials earlier this week,
emphasized that he wants to promote economic development and
indicated that he plans to send a delegation to the,US soon to explain
the reasons for the coup. He repeated assurances of his desire for
cooperation with neighboring Ivory Coast, Togo, and Niger in
telephone conversations with the leaders of those countries.
In addition, Sankara has publicly called on Libyan leader Qadhafi
to halt an "unsolicited" airlift to Ouagadougou. French sources claim
that Libyan cargo aircraft arrived last weekend to deliver weapons.
Meanwhile, the government is organizing Cuban-style defense
committees to mobilize the population. It also is enlisting military
recruits along with some former soldiers demobilized by previous
regimes. Several senior Army commanders still have not declared
their support for Sankara.
Comment: Sankara's professed concern with economic
development suggests that he recognizes the dependence of Upper
Volta-one of Africa's poorest countries-on aid from the West. The
regime cannot afford to alienate France, Upper Volta's chief
economic benefactor, or the US, the country's main source of food
If Sankara is unable to gain widespread support for his promised
"revolution" from the public or the Army, he may turn to the radical
defense committees to repress opposition. He also could turn to
Tripoli for increased military aid, although Qadhafi's preoccupation
with Chad is likely to prevent him from providing substantial support
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CHILE: Another Day of National Protest
Chile's fourth day of national protest tomorrow will indicate
whether President Pinochet's continuance in office is becoming the
key political issue, and it will set the tone for opposition activities on
the 10th anniversary of the overthrow of President Allende next month.
The protest, which was called by a broad range of opposition
forces, is to include commercial and transport boycotts, street rallies,
and other nonviolent activities. Previous protests were aimed
generally at a faster return to democracy, but several opposition
spokesmen have announced that this demonstration will call
specifically for Pinochet's resignation.
This demand is a key provision of a declaration negotiated in
recent weeks by the Christian Democrats and other opposition
groups. Their manifesto also calls for a plebiscite to approve the
calling of a constituent assembly to draft a new constitution, the
creation of a transition government, and an emergency economic
plan to revive the economy.
Pinochet has tried to slow the momentum of the opposition by
creating a commission to propose rules for bringing back political
parties and the Congress and for holding elections. Opposition
leaders, however, are criticizing the lack of a provision to accelerate
the current timetable for restoring democracy in 1989.
the government may be planning some additional
concessions, such as the replacement of the Interior Minister by a
civilian, more exile returns, and a specific transition calendar.
Government officials are disturbed by the opposition's increasing
cohesion and boldness. Pinochet is seeking to appease military and
cabinet officials who believe some liberalization is necessary to
maintain social peace.
Comment: The President appears to be holding plans in reserve
for more significant concessions. He probably intends to use them in
coping` with the massive protests expected around 11 September.
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President Zia, in his scheduled address to the nation this Friday,
probably will announce revisions to the suspended constitution that
will strengthen presidential powers.
The President's opponents say they are preparing for a political
battle. The Movement for the Restoration of Democracy, with support
from some labor leaders, will call for a civil disobedience campaign
starting on Sunday if Zia fails to lift martial law and call early national
elections. Leaders of the well-organized Islamic party that usually
supports Zia want him to end martial law but reject civil disobedience
as a threat to national security.
Comment: Although Zia knows most Pakistanis want a return to
civilian rule, he will move cautiously to ensure that his military support
remains intact. He probably will introduce a presidential system while
preserving the Army's dominance through a formalized military
council. Zia also is likely to put off ending martial law and calling
national elections until constitutional revisions have been completed.
The opposition probably will not be successful in staging mass
demonstrations. The Movement, a coalition of eight parties, lacks
public support and suffers from serious strains among its constituent
parties.
The Islamic fundamentalists could become more critical of the
regime if they believe Zia has not gone far enough. They will not
support demonstrations, however, unless they believe public opinion
has shifted strongly against the President.
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IRAN: Continuing Unrest
Top Secret
Popular disenchantment with the government reportedly is
increasing in Iran.
On Friday 50,000 to 100,000 people demonstrated in northern
Tehran against the regime The
protesters moved slowly through the streets, causing massive traffic
jams. Radiobroadcasts by exiled opponents of the regime the
previous week had called on residents of Tehran to use this tactic on
Friday.
discontent
has increased among the lower classes because of economic
hardshi and corruption amon the cler and Revolutionary Guard.
antigovernment unrest also
has increased in cities in the east. Posters of the son of the late Shah
have appeared on walls and mosques in Mashhad, Zabol, and
Zahedan.
Comment: These demonstrations probably do not indicate a
serious threat to the regime. Ayatollah Khomeini's liberalization
decree last December and the government's generally restrained
response to displays of dissent have encouraged the increase in open
Unlike the protest demonstrations in Tehran last month, the one
last week was peaceful and consisted primarily of middle and upper
class Iranians, who have never supported the Khomeini regime.
Clandestine radio announcements of increased unity among exile
opposition groups may have encouraged the upper classes in
northern Tehran to risk an open show of defiance.
Protests by the lower classes typically avoid direct criticism of
Khomeini and usually focus on economic problems. Unless the exiles
can achieve greater unity and closer coordination, however, they are
unlikely to be able to exploit the discontent of the lower classes.F-
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Portugal has completed negotiations with the IMF for a
$300 million standby loan after agreeing to take further austerity
IMF approval of the loan in October is to be conditional on the
reduction of import surcharges and on raising new revenue. The
Portuguese also agreed to limit the current account deficit to
$2 billion this year and to $1.2 billion next year, slash the budget
deficit from 12 percent to about 6 percent of GNP by 1984, and curtail
domestic and foreign borrowing. In addition, the government is
developing plans to dismantle some public-sector enterprises.
Comment: To narrow its current account deficit, Lisbon has to
constrain import demand further by lowering incomes. Moreover,
reducing domestic borrowing and cutting government' investment
projects probably will increase bankruptcies and unemployment.[
The stabilization program almost certainly will, produce some
strains. For example, the Communist trade unions appear ready to
increase strike activity this fall. The coalition government, however,
appears to have the will to stand firm.
Despite the government's resolve, Portugal is unlikely to meet the
IMF targets. Even under more stringent policies, the current account
deficit may reach $2.4 billion this year.
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IRAQ-IRAN: Iraqi Withdrawal Announced
Baghdad announced yesterday that it had ordered a withdrawal
of forces from Iran after achieving its objectives in fighting around
Mehran.
Comment: The Iraqis achieved their limited objectives of inflicting
maximum casualties on the Iranians while strengthening their own
tactical position along the border. President Saddam Husayn
probably ordered the withdrawal to minimize Iraqi casualties and to
avoid the unnecessary risks of defending additional occupied
territory. The Iranians, nevertheless, will claim they pushed the Iraqis
out of Iran.
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UN-CYPRUS: Proposal for a Settlement
The UN special envoy to Cyprus early this week gave Greek and
Turkish Cypriot leaders a new proposal for a Cyprus settlement
drafted by Secretary General Perez de Cuellar. According to the
envoy, the proposal directly confronts the sensitive questions of
division of territory and composition of the federal executive. A copy
reportedly has been forwarded to Ankara. Meanwhile, Cypriot
President Kyprianou has cut short his vacation to visit. Athens for
consultations with Prime Minister Papandreou.
Comment: UN-sponsored talks between the two Cypriot
communities have been stalled for months. Although the Greek
Cypriots have been urging the Secretary General for some time to
play an active role, the timing and content of the new proposal seem
to have come as a surprise. The initiative's emphasis on the most
controversial aspects of a settlement makes it unlikely that either side
will greet it with enthusiasm. Nonetheless, the shock value of the
proposal and Perez de Cuellar's personal involvement may prompt
the resumption of some sort of dialogue.
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LESOTHO-SOUTH AFRICA: Planned Expulsion of Refugees
Lesotho has informed the US that Prime Minister Jonathan plans
to expel the 2,000 to 3,000 South African refugees registered in the
country. Pretoria has long accused the refugees of involvement with
the African National Congress. Jonathan's decision follows an
assassination attempt against him last Thursday and precedes
ministerial talks scheduled with Pretoria for today.
Comment: Domestic opponents or South African-backed
insurgents probably tried to kill Jonathan. Although the Prime
Minister has not yet found a country that will accept the refugees, his
decision to expel them sets a positive tone for the discussion with the
South Africans on security matters. If the talks go well, South Africa is
likely to abandon the strict border controls it recently imposed and
may release arms shipments for Lesotho being held in Durban.
Jonathan, however, cannot prevent ANC personnel from reentering
the country.
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