NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY FRIDAY 29 JULY 1983

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T01094R000300010228-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 19, 2010
• Sequence Number: 228
• Publication Date: July 29, 1983
• Content Type: REPORT

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Director of
Central
Intelligence
-To s Be cret
National Intelligence Daily.
Friday
29 July 1983
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CPAS NID
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Top Secret
Contents
Suriname: Radicals Foment Labor Unrest ..............................
Sri Lanka: Communal Violence Continues ..............................
Sweden: New Subhunting Tactics ..........................................
USSR: Revised Agricultural Incentives ....................................
8
East Germany: Warning to Peace Activists ............................
8
China: Effects of Flooding ......................................................
9
Indonesia: Antic
rime Campaign Condemned ........................
9
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A radical, pro-Cuban political party's efforts to create labor unrest
could provoke a harsh response from the regime if disruptions spread.
The US Embassy reports that last week some 100 of the 1,500
workers at a state-owned lumber company conducted a wildcat
strike. The walkout was instigated by "action groups" recently set uq
by the Revolutionary People's Party to infiltrate the trade unions.
leader Daal, last December.
This is the first incident of labor agitation since last fall, when the
politically independent Moederbond Trade Union Federation-
Suriname's second-largest union federation-held a rally calling for a
return to democracy. The rally precipitated Army Commander
Bouterse's execution of 15 regime opponents, including federation
could use force against them.
Comment: Contrary to the protests in 1982, the leaders of the
recent strike claimed their actions were a "contribution to the
revolutionary process." By focusing their criticism on the
government-appointed management, the radicals probably hope to
embarrass their principal rival for influence with Bouterse-the
socialist Progressive Workers' and Farmers' Union, headed by Prime
Minister Alibux. They also are likely to pursue
order to broaden their narrow base of support.
Bouterse, however, may view these actions as an attack on his
authority. If the radicals try to infiltrate the country's largest union
federation and cause disorders in the all-important bauxite sector, he
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Jaffna
Palk
Bay
Bay of Bengal
Indian Ocean 0 50
Kilometers
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SRI LANKA: Communal Violence Continues
President Jayewardene's government is having difficulty in
bringing the country back under control as Sinhalese elements
continue attacks against Tamils and their property.
Scattered looting and arson continue in Colombo, where the
burning and looting of 3,000 homes and shops have left 60,000 Tamils
homeless. Fragmentary reports suggest sporadic violence is
continuing outside the capital.
India has dispatched its Foreign minister to Colombo and has
expressed concern about the safety of its diplomats there and the
future of Tamil citizens in Sri Lanka. Tamil members of the Indian High
Commissioner's staff have been attacked and their homes looted.
Leaders of the large Tamil population in southern India want New
Delhi to take a stronger stand and to give more support to increased
demands for Tamil autonomy in Sri Lanka.
Comment: The violence is the worst in Sri Lanka in 30 years. It
has caused substantial economic damage and has virtually ended any
prospects for the success of Jayewardene's recent efforts to
reconcile the majority Sinhalese and minority Tamils.
The wholesale destruction of life and property by Sinhalese mobs
and the increased incidence of terrorism by Tamil extremists over the
last year have eclipsed the efforts of moderates in both ethnic groups
to bring the two communities together. The eventual' movement of
thousands of Tamil refugees to Jaffna in the north, where Tamils
predominate, will only serve to symbolize the increasing polarization
that has resulted from the violence this week.
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>TopSecret
Norwegian
ndsvaH
Finland
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29 July 1983:
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(l Baltic Sea
Soviet
1 Union
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SWEDEN: New Subhunting Tactics
Defense forces in Sweden are using new tactics in their current
efforts to find intruding submarines.
The Swedish media report the latest search is under way in a fjord
near Tore, a city about 80 kilometers from the border with Finland
and the site of Sweden's northernmost deep harbor. Since mid-July,
less thorough searches have occurred off Sundsvall, near the
Stockholm archipelago, and near Karlskrona.
Comment: The Navy's low-key response to continued sightings
and its public silence on tactics apparently are designed to increase
its chances of success and prevent embarrassment in case of failure.
In addition, Navy budget problems have forced a reexamination of
priorities and resulted in the disbanding of one coastal artillery
regiment.
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USSR: Revised Agricultural Incentives
A new Soviet decree has revised the incentives for organizations
supplying equipment, fertilizer, and other supplies and services to
farms. Its primary purpose is to tie rewards for these organizations to
growth in output and productivity on the farms they serve. The decree
also imposes heavier penalties on equipment suppliers for delivering
low-quality or unreliable products. Judicial bodies are to study
problems in the farm service sector and to provide proposals within
three months that will increase the effectiveness and accountability of
the farm service, food processing, and distribution sectors.
Comment: The leadership aparently recognizes that the need to
alleviate bottlenecks in the agricultural service and distribution
sectors is crucial to achieving the goals of the Food Program. The
program is being hindered by the failure of the service organizations
to respond adequately to the needs of farms. If the decree can tie the
interests of service organizations to the success of the farms, a major
obstacle to agricultural effectiveness could be substantially reduced.
EAST GERMANY: Warning to Peace Activists
Peace activists fear that the regime's plans to try a Lutheran
deacon on charges of helping East Germans leave the country may
portend a crackdown on dissent. Although Lutheran leaders have
been disturbed by the deacon's political activities, they were
surprised by his arrest and are seeking his release. West German
media are providing extensive coverage of the case.
Comment: The deacon probably was involved in the unofficial
peace movement. His arrest-the first of a Lutheran official in many
years-seems intended to warn activists that church affiliation cannot
guarantee immunity. A trial is unlikely, however, because the
government wants to avoid negative publicity that might undermine
its "peace offensive." Although East Berlin could expel the deacon,
the regime may prefer to release him quietly if the Church promises to
control his activities.
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CHINA: Effects of Flooding
The monthlong flooding in central and eastern China has abated,
according to Beijing, and all major rivers are now below warning
levels. Although national estimates of damage have not been
published, US officials in Beijing have been notified that press reports
are exaggerated and that US aid is not needed.
Comment: Crops in central and southern China are beginning to
show signs of waterlogging, and late harvest yields will be low if it
continues. Favorable weather is expected over most of China into
mid-August, however, and this will assist in draining the fields. Cool,
wet weather reduced the early rice crop in the central and southern
regions, but grain supplies appear adequate as a result of the record
harvest in 1982.
INDONESIA: Anticrime Campaign Condemned
A senior government official has denounced Amnesty
International's attack on Jakarta's anticrime campaign, stressing that
the reduction in crime benefits the law-abiding majority.
Amnesty International's
criticism follows its recent charge that government military forces in
East Timor are using torture, which the Defense Ministry denies.
Comment: Jakarta evidently is determined to carry on with its
anticrime campaign.
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