NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY TUESDAY 24 MAY 1983

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T01094R000300010007-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 19
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 14, 2010
• Sequence Number: 7
• Publication Date: May 24, 1983
• Content Type: REPORT

Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/09 :CIA-RDP85T01094R000300010007-6 25X1
~~f~~E\ Director of -
'~ ??~ ~ Central
Intelligence
~
OCF85%CZG
National Intelligence Daily
Tuesday
24 May 1983
Copy ^
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/09 :CIA-RDP85T01094R000300010007-6
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/09 :CIA-RDP85T01094R000300010007-6
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/09 :CIA-RDP85T01094R000300010007-6
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/09 :CIA-RDP85T01094R000300010007-6
Top Secret
Contents
South Africa-Mozambique: Retaliatory Raid ........................ 2
Sudan: New Political and Economic Moves ............................ 4
Iran-Iraq: Mediation Efforts by the Gulf States ...................... 5
Jamaica: Economic Troubles Grow ........................................
Peru: Insurgent Attacks .......................................................... 9
USSR-Mexico: Proposed Technical Cooperation .................. 9
West Germany-US: Reluctance To Provide More Reserves .. 11
Indonesia: Army Cracks Down on Crime ................................ 12
25X1
24 May 1983
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/09 :CIA-RDP85T01094R000300010007-6
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/09 :CIA-RDP85T01094R000300010007-6
Q
Next 1 Page(s) In Document Denied
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/09 :CIA-RDP85T01094R000300010007-6
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/09 :CIA-RDP85T01094R000300010007-6
Top Secret
Zaire
Angola
Africa
Tou Secret
24 May 1983
Car bomb _ Swazila*n
explosion, MBABANE
*PRETORIA
Bountlary representation is
nol n arilY authoritative
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/09 :CIA-RDP85T01094R000300010007-6
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/09 :CIA-RDP85T01094R000300010007-6
Top Secret
SOUTH AFRICA-MOZAMBIQUE: Retaliatory Raid
South Africa's air attack yesterday against alleged African
National Congress bases near Maputo maybe only the first in a series
of cross-border raids following the bombing last week in Pretoria.
South Africa says it attacked six ANC targets and a Mozambican
surface-to-air missile site. Maputo says five to 10 South African
planes strafed and bombed the suburb of Matola killin at least six
civilians and woundin another 40.
he armored unitsts at~Ttary camp i
may be preparing to disperse following Pretoria's attack.
Foreign Minister Botha said publicly before the raid that he had
given Mozambique, Lesotho, and Botswana details of the ANC
presence in those countries and had warned them of t~
consequences of continued terrorism in South Africa.
Comment: The swift retaliation against Mozambique reflects
Pretoria's desire to reassure South African whites that it will act
decisively against the insurgent threat. Although a series of cross-
border raids might lead the neighboring countries to reduce further
the ANC presence on their territory, the insurgents would remain
capable of mounting terrorist operations. More terrorist attacks
would lead Pretoria to adopt more stringent internal securit
measures aimed at controlling black South Africans.
The neighboring countries probably will renew their calls for the
US to restrain Pretoria, and they are likely to raise the issue this week
during the UN Security Council debate on Namibia. They als, o may
seek further military assistance from the USSR and Cuba.
Mozambican officials privately told US officials last year that
Maputo might request Cuban combat troops if South Africa were to
attack. The likelihood of such a request will increase substantial, ly if
Pretoria follows up with ground operations inside Mozambique.
Top Secret
2 24 May 1983
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/09 :CIA-RDP85T01094R000300010007-6
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/09 :CIA-RDP85T01094R000300010007-6
Q
Next 1 Page(s) In Document Denied
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/09 :CIA-RDP85T01094R000300010007-6
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/09 :CIA-RDP85T01094R000300010007-6
Top Secret
,Proposed New Regional Boundaries in the South
Libya
Top Secret
24 May 1983
Boundary representation is
not necessarily authoritative.
Saud
Ara a
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/09 :CIA-RDP85T01094R000300010007-6
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/09 :CIA-RDP85T01094R000300010007-6
Toa Secret
President Nimeiri reportedly has decided to carry out several
controversial political and economic measures that could provoke
additional unrest in Sudan.
Sudan's government-controlled press announced on Sunday that
Nimeiri intends to divide the country's non-Muslim south into three
regions. The south's largest tribe, the Dinka, has long opposed such a
division for fear its political role in the area would be weakened.
Nimeiri also has decided to change his cabinet and impose
additional economic austerity measures,
First Vice President and security chief
Tayyib is rumored to be in danger of losing at least one portfolio.
Comment: Nimeiri's apparent decision to partition the south will
aggravate the already tense security situation there. Loyal
government forces recently quelled mutinies at two southern posts
and appear to be preparing for an assault on another rebellious
southern garrison at Pachala.
Although budget cuts may be limited to trimming unessential
items from government operations, many Sudanese fear that an
impending IMF review will lead to another currency devaluation. New
economic austerity measures, moreover, could provoke unrest in the
north at a time when the military is increasingly distracted by events
in the south
Toa Secret
4 24 May 1983
25X1
25X1
~ox~i
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/09 :CIA-RDP85T01094R000300010007-6
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/09 :CIA-RDP85T01094R000300010007-6
Top Secret
IRAN-IRAQ: Mediation Efforts by the Gulf States
Iran is encouraging the Saudi-dominated Gulf Cooaeration
Council to pursue mediation efforts.
Saudi Deputy Foreign Minister Mansuri says the Council
mediators returned last week from their first visit to Tehran and
Baghdad somewhat optimistic. The mediators will go back this week
to both capitals to present a plan that includes demilitarization of
Persian, Gulf waters and ports and limitation of the war to military
targets.
Senior Iranian officials, according to Mansuri, recently had
"nonconfrontational" meetings with Foreign Minister Saud in Saudi
Comment: The Saudis want to minimize tl5e risk of confrontation
with Iran and will respond, unilaterally and through the Council, to any
softening of Tehran's policy toward its Gulf neighbors. Riyadh will
remain skeptical, however, about Iran's real intentions.
Any Iranian decision to seek a mediated solution would be made
by Ayatollah Khomeini, who thus far has not publicly relaxed his
hardline position, which includes removing Iraqi President Saddam
Hussein. Some key Iranian leaders, however, appear to favor
negotiation. Assembly speaker Rafsanjani and President Khamenei,
for example, have occasionally argued for moderation, and they may
genuinely want to use the oilspill issue to begin a larger effort toward
peace.
Other influential leaders-including Ayatollah Montazari,
Khomeini's heir apparent-continue to argue for a military solution,
but they may be cooperating with the Council initiative in the hope it
will split the Gulf states from Iraq. There does not yet appear to be a
consensus in Tehran for negotiations.
Top Secret
5 24 May 1983
25X1
25X1
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/09 :CIA-RDP85T01094R000300010007-6
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/09 :CIA-RDP85T01094R000300010007-6
Top Secret
The IMF and Jamaica have reached a preliminary agreement on
financial aid for a third year, but the terms of the grooram will severely
limit the country's economy in the short term.
A $150 million loan promised by Kuwaiti lenders is an important
.part of the aid package. Jamaica has reluctantly agreed that, if the
loan falls through, it will automatically implement difficult austerity
measures.
The agreed actions would include shifting an additional
$150 million in imports from the subsidized official rate to a more
costly commercial level. The agreement also requires Jamaica to
make major reductions in government spending, in the money supply,
and in the growth of credit.
Comment: The US Embassies in Jamaica and Kuwait are
skeptical that the Kuwaiti loan will materialize and believe that the
contingency provisions are likely to come into effect soon after final
IMF approval, perhaps late next month. Jamaica probably will be
unable to avoid a contraction of its economy this year or to keep
unemployment from rising above the current level of 28 percent.
Increased foreign purchases in the costlier commercial foreign
exchange market will help to push inflation above the 15-percent rate
that is already anticipated. The failure of the economy to improve next
year would damage Prime Minister Seaga's chances in the next
election, which has to be held by October 1985.
Top Secret
6 24 May 1983
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/09 :CIA-RDP85T01094R000300010007-6
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/09 :CIA-RDP85T01094R000300010007-6
Q
Next 1 Page(s) In Document Denied
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/09 :CIA-RDP85T01094R000300010007-6
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/09 :CIA-RDP85T01094R000300010007-6
Boundary representation is
no! necessarily authoritative.
.SOUtl7
Pacific
Ocean
o zoo
Kilometers
Toy Secret
24 May 1983
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/09 :CIA-RDP85T01094R000300010007-6
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/09 :CIA-RDP85T01094R000300010007-6
Top Secret
PERU: Insurgent Attacks
Renewed attacks last weekend by the Sendero Luminoso
insurgent group will increase public, military, and opposition criticism
of President Belaunde's handling of the problem. According to press
reports, the insurgents attacked police headquarters in Ayacucho City
and struck several isolated villages throughout the department.
Security forces have increased patrols, rounded up suspects-
including students from Ayacucho's Huamanga University-and
reinforced police units. The press has begun to dispute the
government's claim that it has been regaining control of Ayacucho
Department in recent months.
Comment: The assaults by the Sendero Luminoso demonstrate
that it is still able to launch well-coordinated operations despite
suffering heavy casualties since January. The government is not likely
to reverse the situation soon, and Belaunde probably will have to
accede to the military's desire for a greater counterinsurgency role.
USSR-MEXICO: Proposed Technical Cooperation
The US Embassy in Mexico City reports that earlier this month a
Soviet delegation led by a deputy minister of petroleum toured the
facilities of the Mexican state oil company, Pemex, and signed a
memorandum calling for technical cooperation. The memorandum
proposes scientific and technical exchanges in oil-related areas such
as drilling, production, and transportation. Details of future
cooperative projects reportedly are to be worked out by specialists.
One Mexican official played down the memorandum by telling a US
diplomat that it is only an offshoot of the Soviet-Mexican scientific
and technical cooperation agreement of 1975.
Comment: The USSR may hope to use any new cooperative
arrangements to acquire advanced US oil-related technology from
Mexico, which is not a member of COCOM and which imports
substantial oil equipment and technology from the US. Mexico's
efforts to avoid violating US export controls, however, could limit
Soviet opportunities to obtain such technology. Moscow may also
hope to make additional sales of oil-related equipment to Pemex,
which has purchased some Soviet-manufactured drilling equipment in
the past.
Top Secret
9 24 May 1983
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/09 :CIA-RDP85T01094R000300010007-6
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/09 :CIA-RDP85T01094R000300010007-6
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/09 :CIA-RDP85T01094R000300010007-6
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/09 :CIA-RDP85T01094R000300010007-6
Top Secret
Press reports say Defense Minister Woerner expects the US this
month to ask West Germany to provide 80,000 additional reservists
to compensate for US troops that might be diverted to Southwest
Asia. He reportedly says that Bonn already has agreed to provide
more than 90,000 additional reservists to support US reinforcements
to Europe in wartime and that "there will not be any more." Defense
Ministry officials told a US briefing team last week that West Germany
shares the US assessment of the importance of Southwest Asia. They
expressed concern, however, about the cost of the compensation
effort and warned that there is little more Bonn can do in this area
because of current manpower and financial constraints.
Comment: The West Germans anticipate other requests for
additional financial contributions to the NATO Infrastructure Program
and to a US Army program for relocating some troops in West
Germany. They probably will assign a lower priority to the proposal to
compensate for the diversion of US troops outside Europe
Top Secret
11 24 May 1983
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/09 :CIA-RDP85T01094R000300010007-6
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/09 :CIA-RDP85T01094R000300010007-6
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/09 :CIA-RDP85T01094R000300010007-6
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/09 :CIA-RDP85T01094R000300010007-6
Top Secret
INDONESIA: Army Cracks Down on Crime
Armed Forces Commander Murdani has accelerated the
campaign against spreading crime in urban areas, which in recent
months have been disrupted by youth gangs and violent attacks
against the middle class and foreigners. He has quietly transferred
responsibility for the effort from the national police to the armed
forces and has approved harsh enforcement measures. Press reports
say unidentified gunmen have killed some 20 criminal suspects in
Jakarta this month and 86 others in the central Java city of Jogjakarta
in recent months.
Comment: The crackdown reflects high-level impatience with the
inability of the police-widely regarded as corrupt and inept-to
check the increase in crime. Although the extraordinary measures
against criminals will be applauded by the general public, excesses
are likely to prompt criticism from domestic legal circles and the
foreign media. Relations between the police and military security
forces- oor even under normal circumstances-will be further
strained.
Top Secret
12 24 May 1983
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/09 :CIA-RDP85T01094R000300010007-6
 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/09 :CIA-RDP85T01094R000300010007-6
ToD Secret
Top Secret
Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2011/02/09 :CIA-RDP85T01094R000300010007-6