NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY FRIDAY 8 APRIL 1983

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T01094R000200010074-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 16
• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 10, 2008
• Sequence Number: 74
• Publication Date: April 8, 1983
• Content Type: REPORT

Director of
Central
Intelligence
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Contents
Guatemala: Army Success Delays Guerrillas .......................... 1
Chad: Government Deployments ............................................ 2
Iran-Iraq: Policies on Oil Spill .................................................. 4
EI Salvador: Insurgent Leader Killed ...................................... 5
Nicaragua-UN: Proposal for a Conference ............................ 6
Special Analysis
USSR-Western Europe: Impact of Expulsion of Soviets ..... 7
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Army Counterinsurgency Operations
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8 April 1983
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GUATEMALA: Army Success Delays Guerrillas
Extensive sweep operations b he Arm robabl have delayed
the insurgents' planned offensive.
The Army late last month overran a large guerrilla base in San
Marcos Department run jointly by the two largest insurgent groups. It
reportedly served as a major logistics and training center. Thy
claims to have inflicted heavy casualties on the insurgents
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an unsuccessful attempt to intercept a large shipment of arms
Earlier, the Army launched a sweep along the Mexican border in
Comment: The renewed sweep operations probably helped to
disrupt guerrilla plans to prevent President Rios Montt from liftin the
i last month. In addition
The insurgents appear to a cooperating more c ose y, owever, an
they are intent on conducting new attacks to demonstrate they have
not been defeated.
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CHAD: Government Deployments
The rapid buildup of forces in northern Chad makes a resumption
of clashes likely, despite the UN Security Council's statement this
week callin on Chad and Lib a to resolve their differences
peacefully.
The Security Council's statement appeals to the two countries to
make the fullest use of the OAU. Nonaligned members of the Council
resisted intense Soviet and Libyan pressure to block the statement.
Chadian President Habre continues to reinforce his strongholds
at Faya-Largeau and Fada and is moving to establish forward bases
nearer the Libyan-backed dissidents' positions. Government officials
claim to have deployed almost 5,,000 troops in the north and say they
have started patrolling the area.
lack of pay is causing morale problems,
articularly among southern troops reluctant to fight in the north.
According to ha ian o icia s, t e
rebel force at Ouni y desertions and severe
internal dissension.
Comment: The Security Council statement sets a precedent for
Council involvement. Strong Nonaligned support may encourage
Chad to return to the Council to focus international attention on
Libya's activities. Prospects for any OAU success on this issue are
bleak, however, because of disarray in the organization.
With the UN vote over and the rainy season approaching, Habre is
likely to move on the dissidents soon. Both sides are aware that the
resupply of Faya-Largeau and Fada by land will be difficult after the
May rains begin. The careful step-by-step buildup by Habre's forces
contrasts with their often impulsive tactics of the past and increases
their prospects for successfully engaging the Libyan-backed rebels.
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