NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY WEDNESDAY 30 MARCH 1983

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T01094R000200010050-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 16
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 19, 2014
• Sequence Number: 50
• Publication Date: March 30, 1983
• Content Type: REPORT

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Director of
Central
Intelligence
OCPASJC
4;11/ 281
National Intelligence Daily
Wednesday
30 March 1983
--T-op-Seer-et?
Top Sccrct
CPAS NM 83-0751X
30 March 1983
Copy 281
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Contents -
Lebanon: Increasing Problems With the Shias
Panama: Shifting Foreign Policy
2
3
USSR: Hints of Political Disarray
6
Nicaragua: Continued Pressure on the Church
7
North Yemen: Use of Tribal Militia
9
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30 March 1983 ?
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Shia Muslim Areas
Beirut-
Damascus
Highvray
MASCUS
633995 3-83
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30 March 1983
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Boundary representation
20
KILOMETERS
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LEBANON: Increasing Problems With the Shias
Clashes last weekend between armed Shia demonstrators and
Lebanese security personnel in West Beirut reflect growing
antigovernment sentiment among Lebanon's largest and poorest
religious sect.
The clashes, in which 17 were injured, marked the first time
government forces have faced concerted armed resistance since the
Army entered West Beirut last September. The demonstrators were
protesting the arrest of 28 members of Amal, the mainline Shia
organization, in connection with the government's investigation of
recent attacks on members of the multinational peacekeeping force in
Beirut.
The US Embassy reports that in predominantly Shia southern
Lebanon?where many Shias have been cooperating with the
Israelis?resentment over the occupation is increasing. The central
government fears that its inability to exercise control in the area will
turn more Shias against it.
Comment: Although Amal is progovernment, the authorities
believe it is heavily penetrated by Iranian supporters. In tracking down
leftist Shias and fundamentalists sympathetic to Iran, the government
risks provoking a general Shia backlash.
The government long has been indifferent to the Shias, who are
the most politically and economically deprived confessional group in
Lebanon. Their growing political activism, however, makes them a
potential source of instability that Beirut cannot afford to continue to
ignore.
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PANAMA: Shifting Foreign Policy
The confused foreign policy positions taken by various
government officials reflect the rivalry between President
de la Espriella and National Guard Commander Paredes.
The US Embassy reports conflicting signals in the government's
statements about the retention of the US Army School of the
Americas in Panama beyond 1984. The announcement by Paredes
last week that the school will revert to Panama next year
subsequently was modified by the Foreign Minister and by Guard
Chief of Staff Noriega. They have suggested independently that the
school might be retained in exchange for an increase in Panama's
sugar exports to the US.
Comment: De la Espriella probably sees his authority as
increasingly undermined by the growing political ambitions of
Paredes. More confusion in foreign policy is likely as Paredes?
using anti-US rhetoric?bids for the support of leftist elements. If the
President believes his usefulness to the government has ended,
however, he may decide to resign before elections can be held in
1984.
Top Secret
3 30 March 1983
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USSR: Hints of Political Disarray
z
The US Embassy reports rumors of a recent hospitalization or
attempted assassination of General Secretary Andropov have
become more widespread. In addition, the Embassy notes that some
of its informants now believe that the Central Committee plenum that
had been predicted for this week will be held next month, while others
believe it will occur in June. Meanwhile, a Soviet science official has
told the Embassy that a Karl Marx commemorative meeting would be
held today and that the speaker would be party secretary Chernenko.
Comment: Despite the seeming disarray, Andropov recently has
made a strong showing. In the past week, for example, he has talked
with two foreign visitors, responded to President Reagan's speech,
and seen his ally, Foreign Minister Gromyko, promoted to First
Deputy Premier. If a plenum was postponed, it may have been
because Andropov was not yet ready to make key personnel changes.
The choice of a speaker for a Karl Marx commemorative meeting has
been the subject of conflicting reports, suggesting some
disagreement in the leadership.
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NICARAGUA: Continued Pressure on the Church
Church officials are preparing a formal protest of the
government's prohibition of live broadcasts of Holy Week religious
services on Managua's Catholic radio station. The government's
action is the first application of a directive requiring prior censorship
of all programing by the few remaining independent radio stations.
Earlier this month the Sandinistas issued a point-by-point rebuttal of
the Pope's endorsement of the right of the Church to control the
curriculum in Catholic schools.
Comment: The Sandinistas appear confident they can continue
their campaign against the Church hierarchy, despite potentially
adverse domestic and international reaction. Last year the
government failed to discourage participation in Holy Week
processions. In the current tense atmosphere, supporters of
Archbishop Obando y Bravo may clash with those backing the
government and the "popular church."
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Saudi Arabia
Jul
cciUclar
(9 Al Hach
Al Kabir
R ed S ea
Ethiopia
Djibouti
Perim
South Yemen)
North
*SANAA
Yemen
Damt
Former
National Democratic Jabal
Front stronghold tilY(PY
Iraq Iran
Jo
Egypt \ an
Saudi Arabia
l?
Sudan
r
South Yemen
,------
Names and boundary representation
are not necessarily authoritative.
100
Kilometers
33988 3-83
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NORTH YEMEN: Use of Tribal Militia
North Yemen is forming a tribal militia in the recently liberated
Jabal Murays area near the border with South Yemen
The militia will be used to help prevent a
resurgence of activity by insurgents of the Aden-supported National
Democratic Front. A similar unit, composed of former Front fighters,
has been operating effectively near Damt. North Yemeni regular
forces are strengthening bases along the border and could easily
reenter the Jabal Murays area if needed.
Comment: The government's increasing use of tribal militias
represents a new emphasis on irregular forces in its counter-
insurgency strategy. In the past regular forces swept Front-controlled
areas, but often did not remain long enough to prevent the insurgents
from returning. To solidify his government's gains, President Salih has
promised economic aid for areas formerly controlled by the Front, but
this may be prevented by Sanaa's increasing financial problems.
9 ?
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