NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY TUESDAY 29 MARCH 1983

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T01094R000200010047-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 10
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 19, 2014
• Sequence Number: 47
• Publication Date: March 29, 1983
• Content Type: REPORT

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Director of
Central
Intelligence
CCFAS/C1G
CY 281
National Intelligence Daily
Tuesday
29 March 1983
"Fup-Seeret?
CPAS NI!) 83-0741 X
29 March 1983
Copy 281
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Contents
Cuba-Spain: Seeking Closer Relations
2
France: Focus on Economic Problems 3
USSR: Military Promotions 7
Hungary: Easing Up on Dissidence 7
Ecuador: Labor Strike Suspended 8
Argentina: General Strike 8
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29 March 1983
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CUBA-SPAIN: Seeking Closer Relations
Havana expects that the recent expansion of relations with Madrid
will result in a trip to Cuba by King Juan Carlos and a return visit b
President Castro to Spain, possibly by the end of the year.
Cuban Foreign Minister Malmierca's recent visit to extend a
formal invitation to the King to visit Cuba is the latest of numerous
high-level contacts since January. Havana Radio resorts Juan Carlos
has accepted, although no date has been set.
Earlier this month the Cuban Culture Minister visited Spain to
arrange a broad exchange program under an agreement made in
1982. Other recent Cuban visitors have included Vice President
Rodriguez, Havana's mayor, and the head of the National Assembly.
Comment:
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Havana's chief motive in seeking better ties is 25X1
political. Its immediate objective is to nail down Castro's long-awaited
trip to Spain, which has been pending since 1978. Cuban officials
hope it will lead to invitations from Paris, Stockholm, and other West
European capitals.
Havana also is trying to encourage Madrid's initiatives in support
of negotiations in Central America and wants to undercut
Washington's effort to influence Spanish attitudes toward armed
conflicts in the region. In addition, Cuba would like to ca italize on
Spain's plans to expand its presence in Latin America.
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FRANCE: Focus on Economic Problems
The reorganized and streamlined cabinet is preparing to
implement the tough economic measures announced on Friday.
The full cabinet is about the same size as the previous one and
includes the same Communists. The unwieldy number of ministers,
however, has been reduced from 25 to 15 and reorganized into a two-
tiered system. Junior members of the cabinet will report to one of the
15 senior ministers and will be excluded from cabinet meetings unless
invited to discuss their area of responsibility.
The position of moderates in the new cabinet who are loyal to
Mitterrand has been strengthened. This team already is being tested,
however, as it faces a surge of protests against the austerit
measures from unions, businessmen, and the public.
The economic package, which follows the third devaluation since
President Mitterrand took office in 1981, is aimed at eliminating the
trade deficit before the end of 1984 and lowering inflation. The
program includes reductions in government spending, increases in
taxes and public utilities charges, limits on tourist expenditures
abroad, and an obligatory "loan" to the state of 10 percent of taxes
paid on incomes for 1982.
Comment: The new program is much tougher than the one put
into effect last June after the second devaluation. If it is rigorously
carried out, it is likely to produce the desired slowdown in consumer
spending, especially for imports. Several of the measures will have
temporary inflationar side effects, and the program will depress
economic activity.
The government hopes its program will put the economy in a
position to take advantage of an expected worldwide recovery. If its
actions result in increased unemployment, however, there will be new
pressures to ease up before the measures have had their full effect.
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USSR: Military Promotions
The military newspaper Red Star announced on Saturday the first
promotions of top military leaders since Brezhnev's death last
November. No changes in assignments were included. Deputy
Minister of Defense for Rear Services Kurkotkin, Deputy Minister of
Defense for Ground Forces Petrov, and First Deputy Chief of the
General Staff Akhromeyev are the first officers since 1978 to become
Marshals of the Soviet Union. Deputy Minister of Defense for
Strategic Rocket Forces Tolubko was made a Chief Marshal of
Artillery.
Comment: Akhromeyev's promotion marks him for a new post at
the level of a Deputy Minister of Defense. With his background in staff
positions, he could become a candidate to succeed Chief of the
General Staff Ogarkov if a wider reshuffle occurs. The four
promotions show the leadership's general approval of the military in
contrast to civilionnel changes and the media's criticism of
other ministries
HUNGARY: Easing Up on Dissidence
US Embassy sources report the regime has at least temporarily
ended its harassment of the small dissident community, causing many
of its members to believe their activities will be tolerated. The
dissidents' most active forum in Budapest has operated without
interference since being forced to move to a less accessible location
in January. The deputy chief prosecutor reportedly has sugggested no
legal actions are planned against the editors of the best known
underground periodical, the latest edition of which appeared a few
days ago. The government, moreover, reportedly consulted former
Prime Minister Hegedus?a prominent dissident?before making a
recent statement on ideological policy.
Comment: The regime evidently is relying on threats and cajolery
to keep dissidence within bounds at a time of potential consumer
discontent. A crackdown could draw attention to the dissidents and
damage the government's "liberal" reputation, thereby jeopardizing
Budapest's current efforts to improve trade and financial relations
with the West.
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ECUADOR: Labor Strike Suspended
President Hurtado's tough stance has forced major labor leaders
to suspend the general strike for three weeks to reassess strategy.
The US Embassy reports the decision of the transport workers'
federation and other key labor and busin7grl'oups to return to work
on Friday broke the strike's momentum.
Comment: Hurtado's refusal to grant concessions probably
reflects his belief that the factionalized labor groups, some of which
were not in favor of an extended strike, can be played off against each
other. He cannot rescind austerity measures without ruining the
government's credibility with the international financial community,
whose help he has to have in the next few weeks. The postponement
of the strike temporarily deprives military coup plotters of a pretext to
move against the government.
ARGENTINA: General Strike
Moderate Peronist labor leaders called the work stoppage
yesterday more to strengthen their hand against radical unionists
than to extract economic concessions from the regime. The US
Embassy reports nearly 95 percent of the workers in Buenos Aires?
and slightly less elsewhere?supported the job action, ostensibly to
gain additional wage and benefit hikes. The Embassy says the
organizers earlier had rejected generous offers because they wanted
to use the strike to attract support in their contest with leftist
Peronists for control of locals. These leftists, although they backed
the strike, also have called for a demonstration tomorrow in Buenos
Aires.
Comment: Labor militancy, for reasons often unrelated to
government policies, will probably increase as labor movement
factions, and their political counterparts, vie for support in coming
internal party elections and the later candidate selection process. The
regime, frustrated by its failure to avert yesterday's strike, may take a
tough stand against demonstrators tomorrow.
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