NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY FRIDAY 18 MARCH 1983

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T01094R000200010020-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 16
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 12, 2010
• Sequence Number: 20
• Publication Date: March 18, 1983
• Content Type: REPORT

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Director of
Central
Intelligence
Tup Seeret-
CI # 281
National Intelligence Daily
Friday
18 March 1983
-rap-srmvr-
CPAS NI
18 March 1983
281
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Contents
Suriname-Libya: Establishing Ties .......................................... 1
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USSR-China: Trade Agreement .............................................. 3
Algeria: Regional Initiatives .................................................... 7
Finland: Conservatives May Join Government ...................... 8
USSR-Nicaragua: Drydock Delivery ........................................ 10
Grenada: Anti-US Statements ................................................ 10
Australia: Defense Procurement ............................................ 11
Japan-Iran-Iraq: Exchange of Visits ........................................ 12
Special Analysis
Poland: New Signs of Defiance ................................................ 13
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18 March 1983
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SURINAME-LIBYA: Establishing Ties
Army Commander Bouterse apparently believes his interests are
best served by expanding ties with Libya and other radical regimes
and his attacks on the West probably will become more strident. 7
Bouterse's visit to Libya earlier this week concluded with an
agreement to develop "political relations" and economic cooperation.
In the communique, Bouterse pledged full solidarity with Libya, while
condemning US naval activity in the Gulf of Sidra and US intervention
in Latin America.
Both nations attacked the Netherlands for suspending its
development aid to Suriname and expressed solidarity with Cuba,
Nicaragua, and Grenada. Meanwhile, Suriname's government-
controlled newspaper has charged that the recent visit to Washington
of Dutch Prime Minister Lubbers is evidence of a US-Dutch
conspiracy against the Bouterse regime.
The Surinamese leader visited several Libyan military facilities
and held lengthy talks with Libyan leader Qadhafi. According to press
accounts, Bouterse expressed interest in learning more about
Qadhafi's political system.
Comment: Bouterse is likely to have been primarily interested in
securing economic aid from Libya, although he also may have
requested Tripoli's help in obtaining arms and military supplies. The
Army Commander probably was impressed by the extent of Qadhafi's
political control and may now view him as a model. In addition, he
may be inspired by Qadhafi's example to attack the US more boldly.
Qadhafi believes Suriname offers another opportunity to undercut
the US. He is likely to promise financial support and small-scale
military aid, but Suriname, like,Grenada, may encounter difficulty in
persuading the Libyans to carry out their pledges.
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USSR-CHINA: Trade Agreement
The Sino-Soviet trade agreement signed last week, which
reportedly calls for an increase in trade of over 150 percent this year,
is further evidence of gradually improving relations.
trade volume is to increase to $800 million
__-
in 1983, the highest level since the early 1960s.F
]
TASS reported on Wednesday that Chinese Deputy Foreign
Minister Qian Qichen and his delegation to the political
"consultations" in Moscow had arrived in Tashkent on a four-day visit
to Soviet Central Asia. On the previous day the two sides had met for
the fifth time during the current round of talks in Moscow.
The deputy director of China's main institute for Soviet studies
claims that Izvestiya commentator Bovin, while in Beijing last month,
suggested that the Chinese and Mongolians sign a nonaggression
treaty and hinted that this could lead to a withdrawal of some Soviet
troops. The Chinese responded that this was a step they "could not
possibly undertake" while Soviet forces remain in Mongolia. F_-]
Comment: The Soviets apparently made some concessions in
order to increase bilateral trade. Much of the increase reportedly will
come from larger Soviet purchases of textiles, which Moscow may see
as a means of encouraging Beijing's dispute with Washington over
restrictions on Chinese textile exports. Moscow also probably agreed
to make a greater effort to fill Beijing's orders for timber, other raw
materials, and chemicals-items the USSR has been able to sell for
hard currency.F_~
The pattern of the first round of political talks in Beijing suggests
the current round in Moscow has merely recessed. Press reports that
progress has been made toward a mutual reduction of forces along
the common border remain unconfirmed. Bovin's reported comment
on Mongolia, however, is another indication that Moscow plans an
initiative on security issues.
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ALGERIA: Regional Initiatives
Algerian President Bendjedid plans to meet this weekend with
Tunisian President Bourguiba as part of his more active efforts to
promote stability in North Africa.
The meeting will cap a series of high-level exchanges aimed at
increasing bilateral cooperation. The two leaders reportedly will sign a
border agreement and discuss regional developments, including the
Moroccan-Algerian summit last month and Libyan machinations.
Bendjedid's new policy is intended to promote a more stable
regional environment so that Algeria can concentrate on internal
development and pursue advantageous economic projects with
neighbors. It also is intended to reduce opportunities for Libyan
troublemaking and superpower involvement in the area.
Comment: A stronger Algerian commitment to Tunis could help
deter Libya from meddling in Tunisian affairs. Any Algerian initiatives
toward Morocco will be complicated by the historical rivalry between
the two countries and their deep divisions over Western Sahara.
Algeria is basically interested in the benefits of improved bilateral
ties with Morocco, which have been disrupted since 1976 by the
Saharan dispute. Although Algiers shows no signs of compromising
its fundamental commitment to the Polisario, Bendjedid seems to see
a revival of negotiations with Rabat as a necessary step toward
separating the dispute from his other objectives.
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7 18 March 1983
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FINLAND: Conservatives May Join Government
Expected gains by the Conservative Party in the parliamentary
election on Sunday and Monday could bring it into the government for
the first time since 1966, which almost certainly would keep the
divided Communist-front party on the sidelines.
Prime Minister Sorsa, a Social Democrat, heads the coalition of
the Social Democratic Party, the agrarian-based Center Party, the
Liberal People's Party, and the moderate Swedish People's Party.
The Communist-front People's Democratic League left the
government in December, refusing to agree to increase the defense
budget for 1983. The Conservative Party has been shunned by the
other parties because of concern that the Soviets may consider it
unreliable in carrying on the policy of cooperation with Moscow.
Recent polls indicate both the Social Democrats and the
Conservatives will make gains in the election, while support for the
People's Democratic League will decline. According to the latest poll,
Conservative popularity has approached that of the Social
Democrats, with both parties standing at about 26 percent
Comment: The Conservative Party appears to have largely
dispelled its reputation as a party of the unreconstructed right. The
party has worked hard to demonstrate its support of the established
foreign policy and to improve its relations with the Soviets. Moscow
has avoided commenting on the campaign, probably because its
attacks on the Conservatives improved their showing in the
parliamentary election in 1979.
If the Conservatives make big gains, it will be difficult for the other
parties to exclude them from the government. With the Conservatives
sharing power, economic policy could shift slightly to the right, but
there probably would not be a major departure from the traditional
foreign policy line. If the Conservative showing is weaker than the
polls indicate, however, Finnish leaders would be likely to continue
the current center-left coalition.
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USSR-NICARAGUA: Drydock Delivery
The USSR will provide Nicaragua with a drydock this June under
a technical cooperation agreement, according to a Nicaraguan
Government announcement. Soviet technicians will install the
drydock at San Juan del Sur near the Nicaraguan-Costa Rican
Comment: Both Soviet and Nicaraguan fishing ships probably will
use the facility for repairs.
Soviet warships, however, currently do not
operate in this part of the Pacific.
Speeches last weekend by Prime Minister Bishop and Deputy
Prime Minister Coard observing the fourth anniversary of the
revolution focused almost exclusively on what they call the "grave
threat" posed by the US. Responding to recent statements by senior
US officials about the expanding Cuban and Soviet military support
for Grenada, Bishop called for the mobilization of his militia to defend
against an impending US attack. Coard also urged Grenadians to be
more vigilant against counterrevolutionary activity.
Comment: Bishop's response is a familiar propaganda theme.
The campaign to stir up war hysteria serves as a pretext for clamping
down on political opponents, and it also can be used to justify
increased military support from Cuba and the USSR. Bishop's
emphasis on the need for all Grenadians to be able to use weapons
for repelling invaders also suggests he will move ahead with his
militarization program.
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The new Labor government has rejected all plans for acquiring an
aircraft carrier, because of the high cost. Defense Minister Scholes
says that Australia's only aircraft carrier, the Melbourne, will be sold
or scrapped and that Canberra is not interested in leasing the Hermes
from the UK as a stopgap measure.
Comment: The Labor Party opposed the purchase even before
the election. The government of Prime Minister Hawke is reviewing
defense policy and intends to emphasize continental defense based
on a balanced force of submarines, surface vessels, and
reconnaissance and strike aircraft. Canberra will examine the use of
smaller frigates armed with advanced antiship missiles. Hawke has
announced Australia will honor the former government's commitment
to purchase 75 F/A-18A fighters from the US by 1989.
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JAPAN-IRAN-IRAQ: Exchange of Visits
The Japanese Government has invited an Iranian Vice Minister of
Foreign Affairs to visit Tokyo in May or early June. A Japanese
Ministry of Foreign Affairs official visited Iran last fall, and the US
Embassy says Tokyo anticipates a visit by Foreign Minister Abe to
Iran and Iraq, possibly in early summer. The Japanese also are
expecting a visit by a cabinet-level delegation from Iraq to discuss
Baghdad's problems in financing bilateral trade. They hope these
visits, particularly those of Foreign Minister Abe, will enable Japan to
become a channel between Iran and the West and possibly an
intermediary between Iraq and Iran.
Comment: Japan also is putting itself in a position to expand
economic relations with both countries when the war ends. Topics of
discussion with the Iranian Vice Minister probably will include
technological cooperation and assistance, long-term Japanese
purchases of Iranian crude oil, and Japan's petrochemical project in
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