NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY THURSDAY 3 FEBRUARY 1983

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T01094R000100010117-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 17
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: June 17, 2010
• Sequence Number: 117
• Publication Date: February 3, 1983
• Content Type: REPORT

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Director of
Central
Intelligence
National Intelligence Daily
Thursday
3 February 1983
-Top Secret
CPAS D 83-029.1X I
3 e ruary 25X1
,
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Contents
El Salvador: New Political Difficulties . . . . . . . . 1
Japan: Increasing Concern About INF . . . . . . . . . . 3
Ghana: Impact of Expulsions From Nigeria . . . . . . . . 5
USSR - West Germany: Threat of Nuclear Retaliation . .
OPEC: Yamani Predicts Oil Price Cut . . . . . . . . . . 8
EC-US: Dispute Over Agricultural Sales . . . . . . . . . 8
Greece-NATO: Problems With Exercise Participation . . . 9
France-Morocco: Results of Mitterrand's Visit . . . . . 9
North Yemen: Insurgent Setback . . . . . . . . . . . . . l0
Japan: Launch of Communications Satellite . . . . . . . 10
3 February 1983
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Top Secret
Legislative Leader D'Aubuisson and his far-right supporters
are threatening to withdraw from the Constituent Assembly in re-
sponse to maneuvers by opposition moderates.
The announcement follows the Assembly's approval
of a rule allowing it to legislate with only three-fifths
of the 60 deputies present. The unanimous vote, which
was taken in the absence of D'Aubuisson and his party,
enabled the Assembly to ratify President Magana's replace-
ment of a D'Aubuisson loyalist in the cabinet. The new
minister is a member of a small center-right party not
D'Aubuisson has demanded the Assembly rescind its
rule changes and reverse the cabinet appointment. Mod-
erate legislators, however, rejected his motion yester-
previously included in the government.
day
Comment: Moderate politicians are increasingly
concerned about D'Aubuisson's political obstructionism
and about the course of the war and the economy. By
bringing another party into the government, they have
reduced D'Aubuisson's share of power and strengthened
Magana's hand against the right.
Some moderates would prefer to replace D'Aubuisson
as President of the Constituent Assembly and let his
party withdraw. Nevertheless, most probably are looking
for a compromise to preserve the coalition government.
A breakup could provoke rightist violence and a renewed
power struggle in the military.
3 February 1983
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JAPAN: Increasing Concern About INF
Top Secret
Japanese leaders made INF the focal point of their talks this
week with Secretary of State Shultz.
Foreign Minister Abe said that Japan fully supports
the zero-option formula and that transfer of Soviet
SS-20 missiles from Europe to the Far East is totally
unacceptable. He also said Japan opposes reduction of
SS-20s in Europe without a similar reduction in East
Asia, which, he states, would not be consistent with
Defense Agency chief Tanikawa warned INF negotiations
could weaken US relations with Japan as well as Western
Europe. In working-level discussions, Foreign Ministry
officials asked how the US would respond if the USSR
were to demand reductions in US forces in and around
the global approach promised by the US.
Japan as the price for a freeze or reduction in the
SS-20s already deployed in Siberia.
Comment: The pointed questions and the Japanese
sense of urgency are unusual. They probably reflect
concern that the US, in response to pressure from the
West Europeans, may be about to alter its position
The new government of Prime Minister Nakasone is
more aware than its predecessor to the threat posed by
existing SS-20 deployments. In addition, Moscow recently
has threatened Tokyo with additional deployments in the
INF at the expense of Japan's security interests.
Far East.
February 1983
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GHANA: Impact of Expulsions From Nigeria
Ghana will have great difficulty absorbing the masses of iZ-
Zegal West African aliens being expelled by Nigeria, even with
international relief aid.
Press reports say up to 300,000 Ghanaians have re-
turned so far out of an estimated 1 million or more
ordered to leave. The US Embassy anticipates the food,
logistic, and security problems being created by the
returning Ghanaians will make it more difficult for the
government to strengthen its shaky position and could
Although the government press continues to attribute
the expulsions to a "neocolonialist plot," the government
has belatedly begun cooperating with relief efforts by
the UN and Western missions. Accra hopes to settle most
returnees on tribal homelands, where they can make a
encourage more active plotting by moderate elements.
living in subsistence agriculture.
The regime fears mercena d exiles have infil-
trated the returnin masses.
Comment: The refugees will add to the burden on
Ghana's inadequate food supply and economy. International
relief aid may enable the government to meet the minimum
needs of the refugees, but Head of State Rawlings will
suspect Western intentions.
The government will be most suspicious of the re-
turning middle class professional and skilled workers
because it regards them as one of Ghana's most Western-
ized groups. They have to leave Nigeria by the end of
the month.
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3 February 1983
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USSR - WEST GERMANY: Threat of Nuclear Retaliation
A TASS commentator warned on Tuesday that West
Germans will expose themselves to the threat of Soviet
nuclear retaliation if Pershing II's are deployed in West
Germany. The commentator describes West Germany as a
"powder keg" because of the concentration of tactical
nuclear weapons and ammunition already there. He warns
that new "first strike" weapons like the Pershing II
"would attract a retaliatory strike like a magnet." West
German Defense Minister Woerner is criticized for reject-
ing a nuclear-weapons-free zone in Central Europe, pro-
posed by Sweden and endorsed by the USSR.
Comment: The warning is blunter than most recent
Soviet pronouncements aimed at influencing the West
German public as the parliamentary election on 6 March
approaches. The Soviets, in recent conversations with
West German political leaders, have taken pains to give
an impression of reasonableness and sincerity, while
accusing the US of inflexibility.
Top Secret
3 February 1983
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The Saudi Oil Minister has advised Ambassador
Murphy the $34-per-barrel price for Arab Light Crude
would soon drop by about $4. He believes $30 per barrel
is appropriate for Saudi interests in the current market
and would not lead to a general price collapse. He
refuses to say, however, if Saudi Arabia would take the
lead in reducing the price.
Comment: A drop to $30 per barrel for Saudi oil
would protect Riyadh's position in the market only if
there were agreement on new price differentials for OPEC
oils of different quality. Without an agreement, further
competitive cutting of prices would be likely to follow.
The press report on Tuesday of an imminent $4-per-barrel
reduction by the Gulf Cooperation Council probably is
designed to persuade other OPEC members to come to an
agreement on their pricing differences.
EC-US: Dispute Over Agricultural Sales
EC Commission President Thorn has told the chief
US envoy to the EC that, if the US makes another subsi-
dized agricultural sale to a traditional EC market, the
Community would cancel the agricultural talks with the
US scheduled for next Wednesday and Thursday. The Com-
mission has decided to eliminate wheat flour from the
agenda of the talks, which are aimed at reducing tensions
caused by competition for agricultural export markets.
The US sale of wheat flour to Egypt in mid-January at
prices lower than prices in the US provoked protests
and veiled threats of retaliatory measures by EC
countries as well as by the EC Commission.
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is receiving from EC members to retaliate promptly
against any ad
members, parti
ditional US-subsidized
cularly France, have u
farm
rged
sale. EC
several more
serious measur
es
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IA cancellation of
the talks probably would help avert this more serious
retaliation.
Comment: Thorn's warning reflects the demands he
e ruary 1963
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GREECE-NATO: Problems With Exercise Participation
Greece has withdrawn from the annual NATO-wide
exercise scheduled for later this month. Although the
Greeks did not say so publicly, they withdrew because
NATO would not include in the exercise the Greek military
command that covers Limnos Island in the Aegean.
Comment: More than his recent predecessors, Prime
Minister Papandreou is using selective participation in
NATO exercises to win political support at home and to
protest command and control arrangements and NATO's
alleged failure to respond to Greek security needs.
Greece has not participated in any NATO exercise since
October, and withdrew from three in 1982.
President Mitterrand's visit last week to Morocco
has resulted in closer bilateral relations, according
to the US Embassy in Rabat. A French diplomat told the
Embassy that Mitterrand and King Hassan now have estab-
lished a good "personal relationship." He also said the
visit provided an "education" for many French dignitaries
who accompanied Mitterrand, suggesting they were favorably
impressed with the Moroccan administration and the King's
personal popularity. The Moroccans emphasized their in-
terest in improving traditionally close ties with France.
Comment: Mitterrand apparently tried to play down
widespread reports that Paris was concerned by the im-
provement in US-Moroccan relations. His support for
Hassan's proposed referendum on Western Sahara and his
favorable remarks on the democratic evolution of Moroccan
politics helped to ensure the visit's success. Hassan
probably is reassured of France's desire to improve re-
lations with Morocco while simultaneously seeking closer
ties to Algeria.
3 February 1983
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.Ride'
,affil (Former National
Democratic Front
Gulf of 4114` too
m:
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NORTH YEMEN: Insurgent Setback
The dissident National Democratic Front recently
sustained another major reverse that is likely to cripple
its ability to resume significant military operations
against President Salih's government any time soon.
many guerrillas in the Front's
largest remaining stronghold, Jabal Murays, have
accepted Sanaa's offer of amnesty. Government officials
have reentered the area and begun reestablishing control.
The government is continuing its efforts to persuade
holdouts in two other small areas to defect.
Comment: The large-scale defections appear to have
resulted from a combination of North Yemen's military
successes against the Front, the withdrawal of South
Yemen's support, and Salih's ability to play on divisions
in the Front to win over key insurgent leaders. The
Front has not conducted any sizable military operations
Japan will use its space booster, the N-2, to launch
its first operational communications satellite early this
month from the Tanegashima Space Center in southern Japan.
The satellite, which will be placed into geostationary
orbit at 130 degrees East longitude, will use the super-
high frequencies in the K-band--20 to 30 gigahertz--as
well as the C-band--4 to 6 gigahertz. A second satellite
will be launched in August as an orbiting backup at
135 degrees East longitude.
Top Secret
February 1963
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