NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY THURSDAY 3 MARCH 1983

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T01094R000100010026-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 19
• Document Creation Date: December 27, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 19, 2012
• Sequence Number: 26
• Publication Date: March 3, 1983
• Content Type: REPORT

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Director of
Central
Intelligence
National Intelligence Daily
Thursday
3 1Vlarc~i~ X983
?" 2 81
Copy
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Top Secret
E1 Salvador: Uncertainty About Garcia's Status 1
Chad-Libya: Tensions Increasing 2
International: Maneuvering on Nuclear Test Ban 3
France - Central America: Roving Ambassador's Tour 4
Lebanon-Israel: Haddad's Role in the South 5
Iraq-Iran: Attack on Oilfield 6
Suriname : Seeking Arms 7
Lebanon: Army To Move Into Beirut's Port 7
USSR-Turkey: Soviet Official's Visit 8
USSR: Reorganizing Agriculture 9
East Germany: Military Manpoz~er Problems 10
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EL SALVADOR: Uncertainty About Garcia's Status
Defense Minister Garcia, despite strong sentiment in the
officer corps that he step dozmT is sending mixed signals regarding
his intentions.
Garcia recently indicated to US officials that
pressures from within the military might force him to
retire. He added, however, that he had additional time
before his active service would legally terminate and
his career is not yet over.
President Magana, meanwhile, has received the
final report of the military commission he appointed to
investigate the dissatisfaction in the armed forces with
Garcia and with the conduct of the war effort. First
Brigade leader Colonel Blandon implied the report stops
short of calling for the Defense Minister's ouster.
Blandon, who served on the commission, is one of Garcia's
chief critics.
Comment: Although the commission may not have
recommended Garcia be replaced as Defense Minister, the
President probably will come under strong pressure to
oust him. If Magana fails to take action or Garcia re-
fuses to comply, renewed coup plotting is likely and an
open split may develop in the officer corps.
Top Secret
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CHAD-LIBYA: Tensions Increasing
The Libyan-backed buildup of the Chadian dissidents' forward
operatzonaZ bases in the north appears almost complete. 25X1
Chadian officials say rebel leader Goukouni's
base at Miski-Tchiaga
re e strengt in t e nort as grown
to approximate y 2,500 men.
The government says captured documents show the
rebels plan to organize logistic networks in southern
Chad and in the Central African Republic in preparation
Meanwhile, a visiting Libyan delegation left
N'Djamena emptyhanded this week. Press reports state
Habre was unsure of the delegation's intentions.
Comment: The dissidents probably are ready to
strike, but still a ear hesitant to attack Habre's
seasoned fi hters.
The
desertion of southe
rn troops, however, suggests Ha re
can rely only on his factional forces, which would be
hard pressed to deal with trouble in both the north and
the south.
To S
ecret
2
3 Mar
ch 1983
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INTERNATIONAL: Maneuvering on Nuclear Test Ban
The USSR is blocking working-level discussions on verifica-
tion of a comprehensive nuclear test ban at the Committee on Dis-
armament at Geneva rahiZe trz~ing to blame the US for the impasse.
Comment: Since last spring, the Soviets have been
heavyhanded in their efforts to pit nonaligned states
against the West at UN disarmament talks. If the non-
aligned countries accept the current mandate for the
working group, the Soviets will have difficulty shifting
blame to the West for disrupting test ban discussions.
The Soviets probably would prefer to shift these discus-
sions from the committee to a forum involving only them-
selves, the US, and the UK.
Most nonaligned states prefer to negotiate a treaty
but are willing to continue under the existing mandate
because they see value in discussing verification issues.
The USSR and its allies could be isolated in opposing
the resumption of working-level discussions if a compro-
mise between the nonaligned and Western states were
reached on this and several other procedural issues. If
these discussions are resumed, however, the nonaligned
states would be likely to demand detailed discussion
of verification as a prelude to early treaty negotiations.
Top Secret
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FRANCE - CENTRAL AMERICA: Roving Ambassador's Tour
A special representative of President Mitterrand encountered
a mixed reception during a recent tour of Central America, accord-
ing to US Embassy reports.
Ambassador-at-Large Blanca last week completed a
two-week trip to exchange views with local leaders from
government, business, and the Church. He repeatedly
asserted France does not intend to launch any initiatives
on its own and would prefer to work with other West
European and Latin American governments.
In Guatemala, Blanca quickly established a good
rapport with President Rios Montt and was well received.
In Nicaragua, Blanca called for a negotiated settlement
in E1 Salvador while criticizing the US for harassing
the Sandinista government.
Officials in Costa Rica and Honduras noted Blanca's
rhetorical support for the Sandinistas and the insurgents
in El Salvador, and they were less friendly. The Ambas-
sador accused his Honduran hosts of harboring troops that
were attacking Nicaragua, but he also refused an offer of
a tour of the border.
Comment: The visit by Blanca, a leading Socialist
expert on Latin America, reflects Mitterrand's continuing
interest in the region. France has no strategic interests
in the area, however, and its commercial role there is
limited.
Central American leaders--and increasingly the French
themselves--are becoming aware that there is little Paris
can do to ease tensions in the area. Blanca's experiences
are likely to strengthen this view.
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Lebanon ~~~~~
An Nabatiyah
Boundary representation is '.
not necessarily authoritati
Tyro-
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Israeli-controlled militia forces of Major Haddad have become
more assertive in southern Lebanon in recent weeks in an apparent
attempt, to legitimize Haddad as the principal governmental authority
Haddad, a Christian who left the Lebanese Army in
1976 with about 400 soldiers, governs an enclave on
Lebanon's southern border under Israel's protection. His
force has grown to about 1,400 men, largely recruited
from among the Shia of southern Lebanon.
The Israelis, who originally sponsored the force as
a buffer against Palestinian infiltration into northern
Israel, have provided some training and advisers as well
as a limited number of tanks, armored personnel carriers,
and artillery pieces. Since the Israelis invaded Lebanon
last June, they have coordinated Haddad's northward ex-
pansion. Tel Aviv wants to ensure that a force responsive
to it will control the security zone that it demands in
southern Lebanon.
Comment: Haddad's most recent moves, which clearly
were made at Israel's behest, are intended to force Beirut
to accept him as the legitimate authority in the south.
His forces are poorly trained and spread thin, however,
and they would not be able to control the south without
Israeli backing.
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raq
Destroyed
platforms
qr KUWAIT
Kuwait
0 50
KILOMETERS
Iran
Khark
Island
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IRAQ-IRAN: Attack on Oilfield
Iraqi aircraft on Tuesday bombed Iran's Nawruz
oilfield, which is near the head of the Persian Gulf.
Two platforms serving six wells reportedly were destr
As of yesterday, all six wells still were burning.
Comment: The field at Nawruz and two associated
fields probably have been producing less than 20,000
barrels per day. Iran still has more than 3 million
barrels per day of production capacity. This attack,
however, could lead to an increase in the air war. In
the past the Iranians have retaliated for successful
attacks on their facilities by attacking economic targets
in Iraq.
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SURINAME: Seeking Arms
Army Commander Bouterse apparently hopes to assure
his regime's stability by heavily arming his loyal sup-
Comment: Bouterse probably is seeking weapons to
arm the People's Militia and to replenish supplies for
the approximately 2,000-man military. Late last year
the regime received two shipments of ammunition and
explosives and a delivery of arms
and ammunition Many of the weapons in
the military's current inventory, however, are likely to
have been rendered useless because of poor maintenance
and lack of spare parts. Bouterse's search for weapons
suggests Cuba has not yet been forthcoming with any
sizable delivery of arms.
LEBANON: Army To Move Into Beirut's Port
The Lebanese Army announced yesterday it will take
over the port of Beirut's Fifth Basin on Monday. This
section of the port has long been controlled by the
Christian Lebanese Forces militia, and customs duties
from it have been the militia's primary source of revenue.
The government initially agreed to leave the basin under
Lebanese Forces control when the Army moved into East
Beirut last month.
Comment: The extensive negotiations between the
government and the Lebanese Forces preceding the Army's
move into East Beirut suggest President Gemayel has
reached an agreement with the militia leaders on sharing
customs revenues. Nevertheless, the government's action
demonstrates further progress in the extension of its
authority. It probably is part of a strategy aimed
whittling away at the power of the Lebanese Forces.
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First Deputy Foreign Minister Korniyenko arrived
in Turkey yesterday for a brief visit. The Soviet
Ambassador last Sunday told Turkish Foreign Ministry
officials that Korniyenko wanted to discuss unspecified
bilateral matters. The Turks say they believe the Soviets
may want to reassure Turkey that its interests were not
harmed during Premier Tikhonov's recent visit to Greece.
They also anticipate the Soviets probably will also pro-
mote the Warsaw Pact's nonaggression proposal made in
Prague in January and other Soviet initiatives designed
to undermine NATO solidarity on INF and other issues.
Comment: Assuaging possible Turkish concerns about
Tikhonov's visit almost certainly is high on Korniyenko's
agenda. Moscow wants to maintain a balance in its re-
lations with Ankara and Athens.
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USSR: Reorganizing Agriculture
The leadership has renewed the Brezhnev regime's
commitment to creating agro-industrial associations at
the district level--the controversial centerpiece of
the "food program"--which would shift some of the deci-
sionmaking process away from local and ministerial bureau-
crats to agricultural specialists and district farm
authorities. Deputy Premier Nuriyev recently boasted
that over 99 percent of the districts have now organized
these associations. Many specialized production organ-
izations of at least two of the agricultural ministries
have been abolished, and their subordinate farms were
put under the authority of the associations.
Comment: These changes are intended to streamline
the complex agricultural bureaucracy of the Brezhnev era.
After a slow start, establishment of these associations
has accelerated--even though most of them probably exist
in name only. The improvement of managerial efficiency
will depend largely on how much independence eventually
is given to the associations. It also will depend on the
degree of authority the agricultural ministries retain
after their reorganization is completed.
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EAST GERMANY: Military Manpower Problems
mi nary currently calls up about 90,000 each year--
primarily from a pool of about 130,000 18-year-olds--
but it expects in the early 1990s only about 96,000 will
be entering draft age annually. Increasing competition
for workers with the civilian sector adds to the mili-
tary's manpower problem. As one small remedy, the
authorities in 1982 stopped granting automatic student
deferrals.
Comment: Military leaders also could increase the
percentage of reservists on active duty. The government
eventually may extend the military service obligation
to 24 months from 18. Such measures, however, probably
would increase dissatisfaction among young people and
gain new adherents for the nonofficial peace movement.
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