AFGHANISTAN SITUATION REPORT

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T01058R000506890001-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 18, 2010
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: September 10, 1985
• Content Type: REPORT

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Directorate of Top Secret,.
Afghanistan Situation Report
10 September 1985
ItC/CB
Top Secret
NESA M 85-10187CX
10 Seltm*er 1985 25X1
Cqw n A l
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FIGHTING SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHI 1 25X1
The focus of the campaign in Paktia Province moved
from Ali Kheyl to Khowst as Soviet troops arrived to
assist ineffective Afghan forces.
NEW SPETSNAZ GARRISONI 2 25X1
The seventh Spetsnaz battalion has constructed a
new garrison in Zabol Province along the important
highway between Ghazni and Qandahar.
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POSSIBLE NEW HELICOPTER IN AFGHANISTAN 2 25X1
A new streamlined Soviet attack helicopter--
possibly the MI-28--was spotted in flight over
Kabul and in Paktia.
WATER SHORTAGES, UPSET POWER, AND FOOD SUPPLIES
Water shortages in Vardak Province and other areas
are disrupting local power supplies and
agricultural production.
10 September 1985
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Fighting was at a high level on both sides
throughout the month. The Soviets conducted
several medium- to large-scale operations in
attempts to dispel the resistance and cut off
supply lines; the insurgents carried out attacks
on Gajoy and Kabul.
This document is prepared weekly by the Office of
Near Eastern and South Asian Analysis and the
Office of Soviet Analysis. Questions or comments
on the issues raised in the publication should be
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10 September 1985
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The Soviets hoped to
avoid involvement in the combat around Khowst, but the
ineptitude of Afghan regime forces and the intensity of
the insurgent siege apparently has prompted the Soviets
t(7 intervene. The Soviets probably will attempt to
surround insurgent positions and sweep the area while
Afghan units serve as blockin forces near the
border.
Casualties on both sides are likely to be heavy as
Soviet and Afghan troops try to oust the well-armed
insurgents, and violations of nearby Pakistani
territory probably will increase. According to press
reports from Peshawar, resistance sources claim that
the guerrillas launched a surprise attack on Afghan
forces at Khowst last Thursday, inflicting high
casualties. Insurgent losses are also high, and the
guerrillas were reinforcing their positions around
Khowst on Sunday. Fighting will intensify as more
guerrillas arrive in the area from Pakistan.
10 September 1985
MESA M 85-10187CX
SOVA N 85-10163CX
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Gajoy, in Zabol Province,
a newly constructed garrison for the 550-man seventh
Spetsnaz battalion in Afghanistan. The garrison is
capable of supporting 1,000 to 1,500 troops and
contains POL, ammunition, communication, and helicopter
Comment: The garrison, strategically placed along the
Ghazni-Qandahar highway, probably is positioned to
secure lines of communication and conduct combat over a
area that stretches from Qandahar to Ghazni and south
to the Pakistan border.
POSSIBLE NEW HELICOPTER IN AFGHANISTAN
US Embassy officials in Kabul sighted a new attack
helicopter in flight over the capital in late August.
The helicopter was reported to be smaller and more
streamlined than the MT-24 attack helicopters that are
currently in-country. The new helicopters were
reportedly painted shiny green, not the standard olive
drab or desert camouflage of Soviet and Afghan
helicopters. According to press reports, the
insurgents are claiming that a new attack helicopter
was used in recent Soviet operations in Paktia
Province.
Comment: The description of the helicopter is somewhat
similar to that of the MI-28 Havoc, a helicopter now in
development in the Soviet Union (see Figure 1). The
Soviets may have decided to test the Havoc in combat
before moving to full production. The Havoc, which is
heavily armed and armored and designed for close air
assault and airmobile support operations, is more
maneuverable, quicker, and can operate in more
stringent visibility and weather conditions than the
12-year old Hind.
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ii
10 September 1985
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A severe water shortage in Vardak Province has
disrupted local agriculture and power production,
Farmers there
expect serious local food shortages, despite adequate
harvests in the rest of Afghanistan. In northeastern
Vardak, the area surrounding the Tachah River
hydroelectric facility has been without power since May
because the water level is too low to generate
electricity. In Kabul,
water shortages, which are worsened by large numbers of
people moving from rural areas to the relative safety
of the city.
Comment: Despite local reports of water shortages and
crop failures, widespread and abundant spring rains
have probably averted what would otherwise have been a
disastrous harvest. Most local food shortages are
primarily the result of disruptions associated with the
war and manpower shortages. Because the war has also
worsened transportation problems within the country,
food distribution has been hampered. Consequently, we
expect local food shortages to continue, even though
harvests appear adequate overall.
10 September 1985
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The Soviet Union and Afghanistan signed a bilateral
agreement in late August that allocates previously
committed Soviet aid to develop Afghanistan,
according to press reports. Afghanistan exports
over 90 percent of its natural gas to the Soviet
Union to settle barter accounts.
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PAKISTAN
Afghanistan
International boundary
Province boundary
* National capital
Province capital
Railroad
Road
50 100 150 200 Kilometers
50 100 150 200 Miles
10 September 1985
NESA M 85-10187CX
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Outlook
The Ali Kheyl operation, the third in this area in a
year, may have yielded the Soviets some temporary gains
in disrupting insurgent supply routes and reducing
insurgent pressure in Paktia, Low gar, and Nangarhar
provinces. the
insurgents took heavy casualties. Nevertheless, in the
absence of a permanent garrison in the area, the
insurgents will be able to resume operations shortly.
The campaign fits the classic Soviet pattern of
supplementing small unit operations in Afghanistan with
periodic large sweeps. Soviet and regime forces
probably will continue regimental-size operations,
particularly if the Soviets judge the Ali Kheyl
campaign a success. In the next three to four months,
Soviet and regime forces almost certainly will be
preparing for the even larger campaigns that
characterize operations in the fall. For their part,
the insurgents are likely to increase their activity in
areas where Soviets have less than adequate control.
10 September 1985
MESA M 85-10187CX
SOVA M 85-10163CX
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Top Secret
Top Secret
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