AFGHANISTAN SITUATION REPORT

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T01058R000506800001-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 27, 2010
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: August 20, 1985
• Content Type: REPORT

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Directorate of Top Secret
Afghanistan Situation Report
20 August 1985
'19-B A
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Top Secret
copy (1 o 1
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AFGHANISTAN SITUATION REPORT 25X1
in Paktia Province.
The Soviets are mounting a major sweep operation
SOVIETS ENGAGED IN MAJOR SWEEP OPERATIONS
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rents, land prices, and crime.
Tension is increasing between Pakistani residents and
Afghan refugees, who are being blamed for increases in
AFGHAN REFUGEES: A POTENTIAL HEADACHE
opium poppy
production in Nangarhar Province has more than doubled
since last year, increasing total production
Afghanistan this year to more than 300 tons.
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UPCOMING EVENTS 5
20 August 1985
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This document is prepared weekly by the office of Near
Eastern and South Asian Analysis and the Office of
Soviet Analysis. Questions or comments on the issues
raised in the publication should be directed tr F
20 August 1985
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SOVIETS ENGAGED IN MAJOR SWEEP OPERATION (S NF)
in Paktia Province.
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A
Soviet/Afghan air attack spilled over the Pakistani
border on 19 August, killing eight and wounding 12
Pakistanis, according to US Embassy sources in
Pakistan. Cross border shellings into Pakistan also
occurred several times last week.
military activity in the Gardeyz area with the arrival
of a regiment-sized task force and the presence of 25
Hip and 15 Hind helicopters.
In other areas, resistance activity in Kabul declined
last week because of a Soviet sweep outside the city
and tighter security during the recently held local
elections, according to US Embassy sources.
Nevertheless, western Kabul city and the Darulaman
complex were rocketed and insurgents destroyed or
captured 50 vehicles in an attack on a military convoy
south of the capital. Insurgent ambushes and attacks
continue in Ghazni Province, according to US Embassy
a significant increase in
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20 August 1985
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PAKISTANI
Afghanistan
International boundary
-'- Province boundary
* National capital
Province capital
-t Railroad
Road
JB 0 50 100 150 200 Kilometers
0 50 100 150 200 Miles
20 August 1985
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Comment: Cultural barriers and a hostile population
have hampered Soviet efforts to develop human sources
of tactical intelligence since the conflict in
Afghanistan began--forcing them to depend heavily on
their unreliable Afghan partners. Even when the Afghan
intelligence service (KHAD) obtains tactical
intelligence on the location, equipment, command
structure, and plans of insurgent groups, the Soviets
have often failed to respond promptly to these
reports
Refugee migration to urban areas in Pakistan--combined
with the substantial sums of money some of them bring--
are causing sharp increases in urban rents and land
prices, according to a variety of reports. Although
migration has alleviated local labor shortages in the
past, it is now creating labor surpluses that are
depressing wages in some areas. Refugees are opening
numerous small businesses, and in Quetta, Baluchistan,
they dominate industries such as trucking, and sandal
and shoe manufacturing.
20 August 1985
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Comment: Relations between local residents and
refugees are now good, but signs of strain are emerging
in the cities, and overall relations may deteriorate if
the economy declines. The press and government
officials are already blaming Afghan refugees for
70 percent of all crime in Baluchistan. In addition,
Afghans are being held responsible for declines in
wages in some areas and are likely to be blamed, for
example, for the increased unemployment caused in part
by Pakistanis returning from the Middle East.
Pakistanis will also probably resent the refugees as
Last year the province
accounted tor more an a of Afghanistan's 160-
metric-ton opium poppy crop.
they become more visible in the economy.
Opium poppy production in Nangarhar--Afghanistan's
leading poppy-producing province--has more than doubled
since last year to 200 metric tons,
Afghanistan's total opium crop this year will exceed
300 tons.
Comment: The higher opium output is largely due to an
increase in the area cultivated. Nangarhar's produc-
tion alone--if it were all refined into heroin--would
equal five times the average amount of heroin consumed
in the United Sates in one year; Afghanistan's total
production would exceed the amount of heroin consumed
in Europe and the United States combined.
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20 August 1985
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-- Insurgents shot down two MI-24 attack helicopters
on 16 July near Jabal os Saraj at the mouth of the
Panjsher,
The same source reported that insurgents
shot down an unidentified jet aircraft near
Qandahar on 27 July. According to unconfirmed
press reports, insurgents shot down another Soviet
helicopter in Paktia Province on 5 August.
r
Afghan Army enlisted men stood at only 38 percent
of authorized strength in early summer. For
example, the Afghan garrison at Peshghowr, recently
overrun by Masood's forces, totaled only 150 men
and not the reported 400 to 600 troops
blatant, according to the report.
Kabul, are continuing elsewhere in the country.
Regime manipulation of the elections results was
-- Regime media continue to play up elections to local
councils, according to US Embassy sources in
Kabul. The elections, which began on 10 August in
begin in Geneva.
27 August The Fifth Round of indirect talks on
Afghanistan between Pakistan and the
Democratic Republic of Afghanistan will
20 August 1985
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