PAKISTANI ATTITUDES TOWARD AFGHANISTAN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T01058R000406510001-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 22, 2010
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: July 3, 1985
• Content Type: REPORT

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DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE
3 July 1985
Pakistani Attitudes Toward Afghanistan
Summary
President Zia is not wavering in his support for
the Afghan insurgency and retains broad public backing
for his Afghan policy.
media. criticism has increased in recent
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weeks. The political opposition also is tryin
g to
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exploit the issue to revitalize itself and und
ermine
the government.
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Zia's program to restore gradually democratic rule to
Pakistan has set the stage for an unprecedented public debate--
much of it critical--on Islamabad's Afghan policy. The tone of
the debate has been influenced in part by the continued high rate
of cross-border air attacks and violations into Pakistani terri-
tory, some of which have resulted in Pakistani casualties. The
visits by Zia and the Provincial Governor of the North-West
Frontier to the village of Swir in the Chitral, the scene of a
particularly deadly Afghan attack late last month, illustrate the
government's sensitivity to the potential political fallout from
the cross-border attacks.
This memorandum was prepared byl Ithe 25X1
Pakistan/Afghanistan/Bangladesh Branch, South Asia Division,
Office of Near Eastern and South Asian Analysis. It was
coordinated with the Directorate of Operations. Information as
of 30 June 1985 was used in its preparation. Questions and
comments should be directed to Chief, South Asia Division, at
State Dept. review completed
c
Central intelligence Agency
NESA.M# 85-10131
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0 .G 1. I' c .L
charged that Zia is letting Pakistan be used by the United States
as a pawn in its confrontation with the USSR in Afghanistan. 25X1
Thanks in part to the relaxation of government controls,
media criticism of Zia's Afghan policy has increased in recent
weeks. Some newspaper editorials have questioned why the govern- 25X1
ment has yet to respond to the Afghan attacks; others have
Pakistani intolerance 25X1
of the large Afghan refugee presence has led to growing anti-
American sentiment because of the belief that the United States
is opposed to a political solution that would allow the repatria-
tion of the refugees to Afghanistan. US diplomats in Karachi
also note some public disenchantment with the refugee presence
because of inflationar pressures and a sharp increase in crime
rates. 25X1
Opinion in the National Assembly
The newly elected National Assembly has the potential to
become the main forum for views critical of Pakistan's--and US--
policy toward Afghanistan, but the contentious debate that
opposition politicians had hoped to generate during the recently
concluded session of the Assembly did not materialize. The gov-
ernment kept the topic off the agenda and forcefully defended its
support of the insurgents in response to questions. Those dele-
gates who spoke out on Afghanistan all expressed concern about
the number of cross-border attacks and the deteriorating security
situation in the border areas. Zia's critics also accused the
government of risking further escalation of the conflict. Other
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members, however, supported the government, and a few even urged
the government to respond more forcefully to future Afghan air
attacks. Contrary to expectations, the demand for direct talks
with Kabul to settle the Afghanistan conflict was not widely
voiced in the Assembly.
Zia's Views
In our judgment, Zia's Afghanistan policy is based on what
he sees as the need to prevent the Soviets from controlling
Afghanistan and using it as a base to threaten and destabilize
Pakistan. He also knows that Pakistani support to the Afghan
insurgents has helped Islamabad secure increased military and
financial assistance from the United States, China, Saudi Arabia,
and Western Europe.
We believe Zia's concern with containing the spread of
Soviet power and influence is heightened by Moscow's close rela-
tions with New Delhi. US Embassy reporting indicates Zia and
senior Pakistani officials fear that India and the USSR are con-
spiring to'weaken and neutralize Pakistan so that its policies do
Zia believes that the United States and Pakistan share a
common interest in opposing Soviet control of Afghanistan. He
probably is not concerned that a US-Soviet dialogue on
Afghanistan will undermine support for Pakistan and its Afghan
We believe public debate will grow, particularly after
martial law ends, and complicate Zia's decision making on
Afghanistan. Zia is sensitive to charges that his policies serve
policy.
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US--not Pakistan's--interests and undermine Pakistan's security
by increasing Soviet and Indian hostility. In this regard, Zia
views the UN-sponsored indirect talks with Afghanistan at Geneva
as a means to show diplomatic flexibility, to deflect domestic
criticism of his support of the resistance, and to put political
pressure on Moscow.
Zia is unlikely to change his policy solely because of grow-
ing public disenchantment. Zia's perception of US support and
reliability, the level of Soviet military pressure along the
border with Afghanistan, the state of relations with India and
Pakistan's economic well-being will all be considerations in
Zia's calculations.
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SUBJECT: Pakistani Attitudes Toward Afghanistan 25X1
DDI/NESA/SO/P
(3 July 84) 25X1
Mr. Charles Dunbar
Special Assistant on Afghanistan
Department of State
Washington, DC 20520
Captain Edward Louis Christensen, USN, Chief, South Asian
Regional Plans and Policy Branch, Department of Defense, Room
2E973, The Pentagon, Washington, DC 20301
Mr. Marion Creekmore, Deputy Director, Policy Planning Staff,
Department of State, Room 7312, Washington, DC 20520
Dr. Stephen P. Cohen, Policy Planning Staff, Department-of State,
Room 7312, Washington, DC 20520
Mr. Herbert G. Hagerty, Director, Pakistan, Afghanistan, and
Bangladesh, Bureau of Near Eastern and South Asian Affairs,
Department of State, Room 5247, Washington, DC 20520
Mr. James P.,Covey, Special Assistant to the President and Senior
Director, Near East and South Asia Affairs, National Security
Council, Old Executive Office Building, Room 351, Washington, DC
20506
Mr. Lewis Amselem, Desk Officer, Pakistan, NEA/PAB, Department of
State, Room 5247, Washington, DC 20520
Mr. Robert Peck, Deputy Assistant Secretary, NEA Bureau,
Department of State, Room 6244, Washington, DC 20520
Mr. Ron Lorton, Deputy Director, Office of Analysis for Near East
and South Asia, Bureau of Intelligence and Research, Room 4636,
Department of State, Washington, DC 20520
Mr. Michael Malinowski, Office of Analysis for Near East and
South Asia, Bureau of Intelligence and Research, Room 4636,
Department ok State, Washington, DC 20520
Mr. Darnell Whitt, Intelligence Adviser to the Under Secretary of
Defense for Policy, Room 3E228, The Pentagon, Washington, DC
20301
(continued)
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SUBJECT: Pakistani Attitudes Toward Afghanistan 25X1
External Distribution (continued)
Dr. Dov S. Zakheim, Assistant Under Secretary for Policy
Resources, Room 3D777, Department of Defense, Washington, DC
20301
Mr. Ronald P. Zwart, Special Assistant for South Asia,
International Security Affairs, Near Eastern-South Asia Region,
Department of Defense, Room 4D765, The Pentagon, Washington, DC
20301
DDI
DDI Registry
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PDB Staff
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