AFGHANISTAN: LATE SEASON 1985 GRAIN OUTLOOK

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T01058R000405260001-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 9, 2009
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: September 30, 1985
• Content Type: MEMO

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3 0 SEP 1965
MEMORANDUM FOR: (See Distribution List)
Chief, Strategic Resources Division, OGI
SUBJECT: Afghanistan: Late Season 1985 Grain Outlook
1. The attached memorandum--the second in a planned series
of three agricultural reports on Afghanistan--contains the late
season outlook for the 1985 grain crops. It focuses on weather
conditions thus far and compares production prospects this year
with last year's estimated production.
2. The first report in this series provided an early spring
crop outlook. The final report will provide a comprehensive, look
at regional crop conditions, give our best estimate of 1985 wheat
ss Kabu
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asse
output--Afghanistan's principal grain--an
November
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situation. It will be disseminated in ear
3. This report is based on analysis of
meteorological data. Comments and questions are welcome an
may addressed to the Chief, Agricultural Assessments Branch,
OGI,
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Attachment:
Afghanistan: The 1985 Late-Season
A ricultural Outlook F___] GI M-85-10259
September 1985
NGA Review Completed
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SUBJECT: Afghanistan: Late Season 1985 Grain Outlook
OGI/SRD/AABI ((September 1985)
Distribution:
1 - Amb. Morton Abramowitz, State
1 - Mr. Jock Covey, NSC
1 - Mr. Elmer Klumpp, Agriculture
1 - Mr. Charles W. Greenleaf, Jr., AID
1 - Mr. Dennis Murphy, State
1 - Mr. George S. Harris, State
1 - Ms. Lillian Harris, State
1 - Ms. Phyllis Oakley, State
1 - Mr. Peter Modley, State
1 - Mr. Michael Egbert, State
1 - Mr. Jonathan Olsson, State
1 - SA/DDCI
1 - Executive Director
1 - DDI
1 - DDI/PES
1 - NIO/NESA
1 - D/NESA
1 - C/NESA/SO
1 - C/NESA/SO/P
1 - NESA/SO/P
1 - CPAS/ISS
1 - D/OGI, DD/OGI
1 - C/OGI/SRD
5 - C/OGI/SRD/AAB
1 - C/OGI/EXS/P
8 - OGI/EXS/PG -G-CPI(C)
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Afghanistan: The 1985 Late-Season Agricultural Outlook
A preliminary crop survey of key grain-growing areas in
Afghanistan indicates that the 1985 wheat crop will be larger
than last year's estimated 2.7 million tons, which equaled the
estimated average for 1980-84.1 Other grain crops are also
expected to do better than average. The droughty conditions
which began last year and continued through the winter were
alleviated by timely spring rains, which began in late March and
continued intermittently throughout most of this year's growing
season. Irrigation water, dangerously low early in the year, was
replenished in time for the winter grains to produce above
average yields. The dryland crops which are totally dependent on
spring precipitation and the summer crops that are heavily
dependent on irrigation water, should also produce above average
yields.
The abandonment of agricultural fields is extensive in some
combat areas near the Pakistani border, but these fields
represent only a very small portion of Afghanistan's agricultural
land and their loss should not significantly reduce total grain
production. Furthermore, the loss of much of this grainland has
been offset by the expansion of cultivated land elsewhere within
Afghanistan. In addition, some land previously used for
industrial crops such as cotton and sugar beets has been diverted
to food production.
Background
This preliminary assessment of the agricultural outlook in
Afghanistan is based on the analysis of weather data 0 25X1
of the most important agricultural areas of the 25X1
country. These areas include the irrigated cropland in the
vicinty of Kabul, and in Jalalabad, Qandahar and Herat provinces,
and the principal dryland farming areas in the northern provinces
(Badghis, Faryab, Jowzjan, Balkh, Samangan, Konduz, Takhar,
Badakhshan, and Baghlan). 25X1
Afghanistan contains approximately 8 million hectares of
arable land, less than half of which is cultivated due to limited
supplies of water. Some 3.3 million hectares of the arable land
1 The 1980-84 wheat production average is based on both Foreign 25X1
Agriculture Organization and CIA estimates. We believe
statistics published by the Afghan government are normally 25X1
derived from very limited and unreliable information. 25X1
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are irrigated, but because of fallowing practices, only about
three-fourths of this area is cropped each year. Irrigated land
produces approximately 85 percent of the country's food and
industrial crops. Dryland crops occupy about 900,000 hectares
and are concentrated mainl in the foothills of the northern
plains region. 25X1
Some 85 percent of Afghanistan's food and industrial crops
are produced on irrigated land. Water for the irrigation system
comes primarily from the snow-fed rivers flowing out of the
central mountain region and is augmented by ground water and
spring rains. Since little rain normally falls after May, the
principal rivers depend on snow melt and mountain springs to
maintain their flow during the late spring and summer when demand
is high. However, A appears to have departed from
the norm this year. 25X1
1985 Weather Summary
Afghanistan suffered a serious water short ge until the last
week of March. secondary rivers 25X1
and most feeder streams were dry or nearly dry during March; much
lower than in March 1984. Irrigation canals were running, but
with greatly reduced flow. The outlook began to change on 31
March when a deep low pressure area with an associated frontal
system moved across the country from west to east, dropping
unusually large amounts of rain. For example, in Farah Province,
a weather station recorded 106 mm, an amount equal to its average
annual rainfall. A second system moved across the country during
the first week in April. Rivers, irrigation canals and
reservoirs were replenished, and in the mountains where the
precipitation*fell as snow. th ed snow fields expanded.
numerous pools of standing 25X1
water throughout the country. Unseasonable rain in varying
amounts also fell over wide areas during the remainder of April,
May, and June. Surprisingly, still more rain fell in the
northeast provinces during the normally dry month of July. When
last observed , rivers and streams in most 25X1
areas of the country were still flowing well above normal and
significantly higher than last year. 25X1
1985 Production Outlook
Despite last winter's precipitation shortfall, we believe
that this year's grain harvest will be better than last year's
estimated 2.7 million tons and the estimated average of recent
years--1980 to 1984. In addition to weather data, Landsat
imagery lof
the principal Afghan grain-growing areas were analyzed throughout
the growing season. to check the
availability of water in the irrigation systems; to determine
crop health during critical growth stages; and to make a rough
estimate of the size of the harvest based on the number and
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density of post harvest straw shocks.2 This preliminary
analysis suggests that:
o The irrigated winter grain crop, mainly wheat, should
produce above average yields--slightly better than last
year.
o The dryland grain crop, mainly wheat, should produce
above average yields--considerably better than last
year's crop which had suffered an estimated 25 percent
reduction due to drought.
o The irrigated summer crops, consisting of mostly corn and
rice, should produce above average yields--slightly
better than last year.
Because most food shortages in Afghanistan have resulted from
crop failure in the dryland region, the above average estimate
for dryland grain production and the average to above average
estimates for the other large producing regions indicates that
Afghan food supplies will be adequate this year.
harvest and procurement activities in
neighboring countries, which are generally affected by the same
weather patterns as Afghanistan, also support our assessment of
above average Afghan crop prospects. The size of the gratin
harvest in south Uzbek, SSR--which adjoins the Afghan dryland
area on the north--was above plan in late June, according to
Moscow domestic radio. Unclassified reporting from Pakistan--to
the east of Afghanistan--indicates that grain procurements for
the May-July period ran about 10 percent higher this year than
last.
Impact of Military Activity on Agriculture
Our preliminary analysis of the principal agricultural areas
revealed no large-scale deliberate destruction of crops or
irrigation sytems by Soviet or Afghan military forces. Military
action such as bombing and armored vehicle traffic is estimated
to have damaged less than one percent-,of the total agricultural
area.
Agricultural activity in the Panjer Valley in 1985 was
nearly non-existent. Apparently the continued presence of Soviet
and Afghan military forces discouraged farmers from returning to
the valley. Cultivation evidence was observed only in a small
2 Because of the direct relationship between the amount of grain
harvested and the amount of straw shocks observed in the fields,
this methodology provides a reliable indication of relative
difference in grain yields from one year to the next.
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area near the southern entrance and near the northern end of the
valley. Most of the villages in the central part remain
abandoned and the fields unattended. Grain production in the
valley accounts for less than two percent of total.nationa125X1
the Konar Valley, site of , 25X1
recent heavy military actions, shows a steady decline in
population since the Soviet invasion. Approximately 50 percent
of the population has left since 1979. The majority of the
abandoned land is on the eastern side of the Konar River. The
remaining agriculture in the valley suffered some minor damage
this year from military operations. Vehicle tracks through the
agricultural fields and the military take over of some villages
are evident. Near the entrance to the valley a significant
amount of agricultural land around Jalalabad Airfield was
abandoned from 1984 to 1985. It appears this abandonment was
caused by increased military activity in the Konar Valley area,
or an attempt by the military to secure a larger security zone
around the nearby airfield. The agricultural area abandoned in
and near the entrance to the Konar Valley equates to less than 2
percent of Afghanistan's grain producing area. 25X1
Military operations this summer in and around Herat had no
significant impact on grain production since most of the
activities occurred after the main grain harvest was completed.
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