INTERNATIONAL ARMS TRANSFERS REPORT AUGUST-SEPTEMBER 1985

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T01058R000405230001-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: April 26, 2010
• Sequence Number: 1
• Content Type: REPORT

25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/04: CIA-RDP85TO1058R000405230001-2
Next 2 Page(s) In Document Denied
Ao;
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/04: CIA-RDP85TO1058R000405230001-2
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/04: CIA-RDP85T01058R000405230001-2
l '
Central Intelligence Agency
International Arms Transfers Report
August-September 1985
Summary
Soviet arms shipments from Nikolayev Pert Facility South through August
of this year have fallen by about 25 percent compared to the same eight month
periods in 1983 and 1984. Most Soviet buyers, including major recipients such
as Iraq and Cuba, have experienced a decline in deliveries. The significant
drepoff is probably the result of a sharp decline in observed Soviet military
agreements with the Third World in 1983, but construction at Nikolayev and a
possible diversion of ante shipping to other ports, such as Leningrad, may
also be contributing to the decline.
Other significant developments include:
o In Asia, North Korea received 10 more MiG-23 aircraft and SA-3s and
Japan has decided to purchase West Germany's 120-um gun for its main
battle tank.
This report, prepared by the Arms Transfers Branch, Office of Global Issues,
describes significant new developments concerning conventional arms
transfers. It includes major agreements and deliveries, important
construction projects, and related financial issues, but is not a complete
listing of all arms transfers. Comments are welcome and may be addressed to
Chief, International Security Issues Division,
Copy _\D.0 of 121
25X1
25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/04: CIA-RDP85T01058R000405230001-2
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/04: CIA-RDP85TO1058R000405230001-2 25X1
o In Africa, the Soviets delivered SA-13s to Angola and MiG-21s to
Mozambique.
o In Europe, Britain, West Germany, Italy, and Spain have agreed to
develop and produce a fighter jointly, and France will proceed with
its own fighter project.
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/04: CIA-RDP85TO1058R000405230001-2
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/04: CIA-RDP85T01058R000405230001-2 25X1
Key Issue
Fall-Off in Soviet Arms Shipments in 1985
Soviet arms shipments from Nikolayev Port Facilities South (NPFS) for the
first eight months of 1985 were about 25 percent below the same periods in
1983 and 1984. Virtually all Soviet shipments of arms to Third World
countries leave fran NPFS in the Black Sea--a port dedicated solely to the
arms trade. As of 31 August, we recorded a total of 105 ship voyages from
NPFS, canpared with 139 ship voyages in the first eight months of 1984 and 138
for the same 1983 period. Similarly, the estimated tonnage of Soviet military
cargoes exported fran Nikolayev dropped about 25 percent this year,
compared with 1984. deliveries of canbat aircraft, 25X1
jet trainer aircraft, artillery, and missile systems have declined
substantially, although tank and armored vehicle deliveries appear to be up
from last year. 25X1
A regional breakdown of deliveries indicates the decline is not limited
in its extent. Most Soviet buyers experienced declines in deliveries this
year, although a few countries, such as India and Vietnam, received more
materiel. Deliveries to Iraq, the premier Soviet arms client, declined to 24
shiploads during January-August 1985, canpared with 32 shiploads in 1984 and
31 in 1983 for the same time frame. Shipments to Cuba are down from the 17
received between January and August 1984 to 9 in the same 1985 period.
There are several possible explanations for the overall decline in
shipments fran Nikolayev. Vie believe the drop in identified deliveries is
largely a result of a sharp decline in Soviet military agreements with most
Third World buyers in 1983. Identified accords that year totalled only about
$4.5 billion, a five-year low, and fewer weapons may have required delivery in
1985. The number of new accords accelerated considerably in 1984, however,
and the pace of deliveries may pick up again in 1986.
Ongoing construction to expand Nikolayev may also be hindering current
shipments, although Baltic ports such as Leningrad may be taking up some of
the slack caused by construction at Nikolayev. Preliminary evidence covering
the past several months suggests the pace of ship transits through the Danish
Straits has increased, but we lack evidence to determine whether increased
shipments in the North are related to or independent of the construction at
Nikolayev. Moscow could be embarked on a general effort to diversify military
shipments among more ports, but analysis of major weapons deliveries indicates
the decline in shipments of weapons from Nikolayev is not being compensated by
shipments fran other ports, which traditionally have handled nonlethal items
such as trucks.
25X1
25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/04: CIA-RDP85T01058R000405230001-2
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/04: CIA-RDP85T01058R000405230001-2 25X1
Regional Issues
Persian Gulf
Iran. Iran has intensified its efforts to improve air defences and
long-range strike capabilities since July.
Iran probably purchased Chinese-made SA-2s
during Assembl S aker Rafsan'ani's visit to China in late
June.
Saudi Arabia. The Saudis continue to receive equipment and services
fran France under the terms of the 1980 "Sawari" contract. Most
significant is the arrival of the first of four F2000 frigates, armed
with Otanat MK2 anti-ship missiles, Naval Crotale SAMs, and a 100mm
gun. Also delivered were six of the 24 Dauphin helicopters on order;
four are search and rescue variants and two are armed with missiles.
behind in payments to France.
the Saudis are now more than $1 billion
Construction and training activity in
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/04: CIA-RDP85T01058R000405230001-2
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/04: CIA-RDP85TO1058R000405230001-2 25X1
Saudi Arabia for the naval helicopter program has slowed, but deliveries
of equipment have not been affected because France hopes to expand its
arms sales to Riyadh in the future.
The Saudis have decided to buy 40 Tornado ICS fighters and 30 HAWK
trainers fran the United Kingdom, according to published reports.
Embassy sources expect the contract to be signed in late September. The
Tornados will allow the Saudis to replace their aging Lightning
fighters, but will aggravate their shortage of trained pilots, 25X1
In light of US unwillingness to offer F-15s, Riyadh 25X1
cited its desire to diversify its arms sources as the key reason for the
choice of the Tornado over the French Mirage 2000, but the observers
speculate that France's reluctance to accept oil in partial payment was
a factor as well. 25X1
Qnan. Oman's navy took delivery of a new landing ship fran the United
Kingdom in late August. The ship can transport seven Chieftain tanks
and 240 fully-A a need t?roons and has a landi m nad for a Sea Kim
helicopter.
Qatar has decided to purchase 25 tanks and $30 million worth of
artillery ammunition fran France, The
tanks--either the AMX-32 or the AMX-40--will replace older AMX-30s in
Qatar's inventory. The ammunition is probably destined for Iraq, which
fields at least 60 French self-propelled guns.
North Africa/Levant
Egypt has signed deals to improve its missile inventory and Israel has
given a final go-ahead for the Lavi Fighter program.
Egypt. I (reports that Yugoslavia will
overhaul Egyptian SA-2 air defense batteries. Aggressive Yugoslav
marketing reportedly beat out a carpeting offer fran China.
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/04: CIA-RDP85TO1058R000405230001-2
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/04: CIA-RDP85T01058R000405230001-2 25X1
Israel. On 21 August the inner cabinet voted overwhelmingly to continue
the Lavi program, according to Embassy reports. The only two dissenters
in the 10-member cabinet were minister of Finance Yitzhak Moday and
Minister Without Portfolio Ezer Weisman; both voiced familiar concerns
over Lavi's increasing technological sophistication and its resultant
high cost projections . Lavi's central role in providing employment for
Israeli aircraft industries and US financial support have kept Israel's
fractious political leadership behind the program. 25X1
Syria. In late July, Syria delivered at least 33 T-54 tanks to the Amal
militia in Beirut, Syria gave the 25X1
tanks to the Amal conrront pro- a a mi i iamen in the three
West Beirut Palestinian refugee camps. 25X1
Latin America
Nicaragua.
that Nicaragua has
received 18 100-mm antiaircraft guns which were probably delivered on a
Bulgarian merchant ship last October.
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
Nicaragua would need more advanced radars, 25X1
25X1
25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/04: CIA-RDP85T01058R000405230001-2
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/04: CIA-RDP85T01058R000405230001-2 25X1
surface-to-air missiles, or advanced fighters to threaten high-
performance aircraft seriously. 25X1
Venezuela, Ecuador, Colombia, Mexico.
in Hong Kong reports NORINCO recently
opened offices in Panama, registered under the name "China United
Trading Company." China is creating a front firm to give
local governments the opportunity to buy military equipment fran China
without using more visible government to government channels. Beijing
is probably focusing on econanic gains in these sales, rather than any
effort to obtain political influence.
Peru. The new Peruvian president, Alan Garcia, announced in early
August that his government will cut the number of Mirage 2000 fighters
on order from France fran 26 to 13. We believe Lima's continuing
foreign debt problems forced a cutback in the size of the purchase, but
President Garcia claims the reduction is part Peru's efforts to
encourage restraint in South American arms purchases. Peru will have
difficulty financing even a smaller number of aircraft.
East Asia
North Korea. North Korea received 10 more MiG-23 fighter aircraft fran
the Soviet Union in late August. This brings the total number of MiG-
23s in North Korea to 26,
Soviets have delivered at least 30 SA- sur ace-to-air missi e
transporters, which will significantly improve the mobility of North
Korea's low-to-medium altitude air defense equipment.
Japan. Japan announced in August it would buy up to 150 West German
120-mm guns for its next generation main battle tank. The decision was
based on two factors: Tokyo decided the West German gun was superior to
the Japanese 120-mm gun under development and hopes the sale is seen in
Western Europe as a symbol of its willingness to reduce Japan's large
trade surplus. Japan joins the US in selecting the Rheinmetall 120-mm
gun for their respective main battle tanks.
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
2bA1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/04: CIA-RDP85T01058R000405230001-2
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/04: CIA-RDP85TO1058R000405230001-2 25X1
South Asia
India continues to look to Western Europe to modernize its aircraft
inventory and expand its naval presence in the Arabian Sea,
India. India agreed to buy the aircraft carrier Hennes, 11 Sea
Harriers, and 26 Sea Eagle missiles from the United Kingdom in August,
will give New Delhi the capability to deploy one carrier on each
coast. India also decided to buy six Mirage 2000 fighters from France
in the first follow-on to the 1982 deal for 40.
New Delhi will
probably try to use the purchase to pry concessions from Moscow for MiG-
29 fighters.
Looking Ahead
India may take delivery of its first SA-8 SAM system and KILO class
submarine by the end of the year. Pakistan will probably decide whether
it will continue with plans to buy 150 Chinese F-7 fighters and upgrade
them with US engines and avionics. Argentina may finalize a deal to
supply Indonesia with frigates, military aircraft, and other hardware in
exchange for oil. Finally, the long delayed delivery of four Italian-
built minehunters to Malyasia will likely occur in the next few
Africa
The Soviets delivered air defense equipment and jet fighters to Angola
and Mozambique.
Angola. Angola continues to upgrade its air defense forces, having
received SA-13 SAMs from the Soviet Union in late July.
This
upgrade to the air defense network supplements earlier acquisitions of
SA-2, SA-3, SA-6, SA-7, SA-8, and SA-9 SAMs. The delivery of this new
weapons system reflects a continued Soviet commitment to enhance
Angola's defenses against possible South African air attacks.
Nigeria.
25X1
25X1
25X1
LZDAI
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/04: CIA-RDP85TO1058R000405230001-2
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/04: CIA-RDP85TO1058R000405230001-2 25X1
Lagos
also 25X1
is beginning to replace its aging L-29 jet trainers, having received six
Aermacchi MB 339s fran Italy recently and reaching agreement with
Czechoslovakia for 24 L-39s.
Mozambique. In late July, indicated a
Soviet delivery of at least two MiG-21 Fishbeds. Mozambique has also
reached agreement with Great Britain for approximately $500,000 worth of
quartermaster supplies and training.
Burundi. In late July, Libya delivered a large consignment of military
equipment, including small arms, rockets, ammunition, and two Italian-
made SF 260 Marchetti training aircraft, which can be armed.
Zimbabwe. Harare concluded a $43 million deal with Agusta of Italy for
10 transport helicopters, The aircraft
may be used in a support role by Zimbabwe's forces in Mozambique.
Madagascar. The Soviet Union announced it will donate an MI-8 HIP
helicopter to Madagascar.
Europe
Britain, West Ge many, Italy, and Spain have agreed to develop and
produce jointly a new air superiority fighter for introduction about
1995. The group was formed after the four countries could not
accamodate France in a five-nation European fighter aircraft program.
France had been demanding a major share of the plane's production work
for French industry and wanted the fighter to be a relatively
unsophisticated, export oriented, ground attack aircraft. France will
now build its own fighter, called the Rafale, independently and procure
300 copies. a prototype is scheduled
to fly in mid-1986. The four partners plan to build about 700 fighters
for their own air forces, and are scheduled to begin talks in September
to settle the issues of project definition, administrative structure,
harmonization of military requirements, and work shares. They hope to
have these matters resolved in time for full scale development to begin
in the spring of 1986.
Looking Ahead
The meetings of the new fighter consortium should resolve all the
outstanding issues easily, While
national military requirements predaminate, the partners are united in
their need for an air superiority fighter, and have worked together in
similar projects--Britain, Germany, and Italy are veterans of the
Tornado program and the three have already made plans to accomodate
Spain, according to press reports. The major long-term problem for the
group and for France's Rafale will be financial: each aircraft will
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/04: CIA-RDP85TO1058R000405230001-2
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/04: CIA-RDP85TO1058R000405230001-2 25X1
cost about $5 billion to develop, according to our estimates, and the
group fighter is already projected to cost $30 million per plane. cost
overruns and the relatively small production runs for domestic services
may create budgetary problems for each fighter, possibly resulting in
fewer procurements or cuts in the producers' other military programs.
25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/04: CIA-RDP85TO1058R000405230001-2
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/04: CIA-RDP85TO1058R000405230001-2 25X1
Table
Significant International Arms Transfers
Recipient Supplier
Amount
(million $) Remarks
SA-2s
Unknown equip.
$ 430
Delivery
Agreement
Iraq USSR T-72 tanks,jet $ 400 Agreement
fighters
1 F2000 frigate
missiles; 6 Dauphin
helicopters
Delivery
Delivery
Egypt Yugoslavia SA-2 battery overhaul
Nicaragua
Bulgaria
Agreement
5,000 Sagger msls. $ 22 Agreement
18 100-mm AA guns
10 MiG-23s
30 SA-3 transporters
Delivery
Delivery
Delivery
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/04: CIA-RDP85TO1058R000405230001-2
 Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/04: CIA-RDP85TO1058R000405230001-2 5X1
Recipient
Supplier
Item
Amount
(Million $)
Remarks
Japan
FRG 150
1
20-mm tank guns
--
Agreement
India
UK He
rme
s AC Carrier
$ 56
Agreement
26
Se
a Eagle Msls
$ 260
Agreement
11
Se
a Harriers
Angola
France 6 M
ir
age 2000s
Agreement
Delivery
Nigeria
25X1
Mozambique
Italy
USSR
Delivery
Agreement
Delivery
Unk
Tra
no
in
wn items &
ing
$ .5
Agreement
Burundi
Libya Sma
ll
arms
Delivery
roc
Amm
2 j
ke
un
et
ts
ition
trainers
Zimbabwe
Italy 10
he
licopters
$ 43
Agreement
Madagascar
USSR 1 M
I-
8
$ 3.9
Grant aid
agreement
25X1
25X1
Declassified in Part - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2012/01/04: CIA-RDP85TO1058R000405230001-2