AFGHANISTAN: PRELIMINARY 1985 GRAIN OUTLOOK

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T01058R000304310001-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 7
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 19, 2010
• Sequence Number: 1
• Publication Date: April 26, 1985
• Content Type: MEMO

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MEMORANDUM FOR: (See Distribution List)
SUBJECT: Afghanistan: Preliminary 1985 Grain Outlook
and on water availability for the remainder of the season.
1. The attached memorandum is a preliminary outlook for the
1985 Afghan grain crop. It focuses on weather conditions thus far
tenuous food situation.
2. Two additional crop reports will be forthcoming. The
second, scheduled for August, will include a more detailed
discussion of crop conditions and make some qualitative judgments
about prospective crop size. The final report, to be published
late this year, will provide a comprehensive look at regional
crop conditions,give our best estimate of 1985 wheat output--a
useful indicator of total food production--and assess Kabul's
OGI,
and meteorological data. Comments and questions are welcome and
may be addressed to the Chief, Agricultural Assessments Branch,
3. This report is based on analysis of
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Attachment:
Afghanistan: Preliminar 1985 Grain Outlook
GI M 85-10123, April 1985
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NGA, USAF, Review Completed
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I I
SUBJECT: Afghanistan:-, Preliminary 1985 Grain Outlook
OGI/SRD/AAB (April 1985)
Distribution:
1 - Amb. Morton Abramowitz, State
1 - Mr. Geof frey Kemp, NSC
1 - Mr. Elmer Klumpp, Agriculture
1 - Mr. Charles W. Greenleaf, Jr., AID
1 - Mr. Dennis Murphy, State
1 - Mr. George S. Harris, State
1 - Ms. Lillian Harris, State
1 - Ms. Phyllis Oakley, State
1 - Mr. Peter Modley, State
1 - Mr. Michael Egbert, State
1 - Mr. Jonathan Olsson, State
1 - SA/DDCI
1 - Executive Director
1 - DDI
1 - DDI/PES
1 - NIO/NESA
1 - D/NESA
1 - C/NESA/SO
1 - C/NESA/SO/P
1 - NESA/SO/P
1 - CPAS/ISS
1 - D/OG I , DD/OG I
1 - C/OG I/SRD
5 - C/OG I /S RD/AA B
1 - C/OGI/EXS/PG
8 - OGI/EXS/PG
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Afghanistan: Preliminary 1985 Grain Outlook
Timely, widespread rains since late March have replenished
Afghanistan's critically low irrigation supplies, thereby
averting a major crop disaster. As a result of the rainfall, we
believe that there are now sufficient amounts of water to sustain
the winter wheat crop--Afghanistan's principal food grain--until
harvest. Prospects for the summer crops such as corn, rice, and.
cotton are less promising, however, because the mountain
snowpack--the main source of water for these crops--is smaller
than normal this year.
Background
Afghanistan produces some 85 percent of its food and
industrial crops on irrigated land. Water for the irrigation
system comes primarily from the snow-fed rivers flowing out of
the central mountain region, and is augmented by spring rains.
Because little rainfall occurs after April, the rivers depend on
snow melt to maintain their flaw during the late spring and 25X1
summer, when the demand for water is high. As a result, snow
accumulation during the winter is an important factor determining
crop production, especially summer crops, in Afghanistan.
Equally vital to Kabul's crop output is the proper fun
of the country's fragile irrigation network.
In the province:25
an an ran, w ere arge num ers of farms have been
abandoned because of the intense fi hting, the irrigation system is
non-functional. 25X1
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198 5 Weather Summary
Analysis of meteorological data--although generally sparse
and incomplete--indicates that average snow depth this spring in
Afghanistan during the mid-March to mid-April period was as much
as 40 percent less than in 1984.2 Qhe smaller snowpack coupled
with generally dry weather during March caused irrigation
supplies--as measured by the amount of water seen flowing in
rivers and streams -to reach critically low 25X1
levels by late Marc is pro em was remedied, however, by
widespread, abundant rainfall from 29 March to 13 April. Some areas
i
rece
ved as much or more rain during this period than their yearly
ave ra a accordin weather reports. In addition, mid-Ap25X1
and that irrigation canals
are full. 25X1
Preliminary Outlook for the 1985 Grain Crop
Although it is still too early in the crop season to
quantitatively estimate 1985 grain production in Afghanistan, the
recent rains precluded what almost certainly was shaping up to be
a major harvest disaster. We believe that the irrigated winter
wheat crop--about 80 percent of total wheat output--now has
enough water to survive until harvesting begins in late May. The
dryland winter wheat crop, grown in the northern plains region,
also benefited from the rainfall. Wheat is the staple crop in
The outlook for Afghanistan's summer crops--mainly corn,
rice, and cotton--is less favorable. Because of the smaller-
than-normal mountain snowpack, we expect many of the country's
rive rs and streams to run dry before these crops mature. The
resulting shortage of irrigation water will reduce grain yields
and may prompt fa rmers to cut back on planted area as well. The
magnitude of crop damage will depend on what stage of growth the
plants are in when irrigation supplies are depleted. Crops are
most vulnerable to moisture stress during flowering--the stage
2 Snow depth in the spring is a good indicator of snowfall
during the winter and of water availability for spring and summer
irrigation. Snow depths were calculated by the US Air Force from
snow brightness measurements taken from meteorological satellite
imagery and from estimated snow accumulations based on analysis
of temperature, cloud cover, and cloud type. This information
was supplemented, when available, with precipitation amounts
3
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FIGURE 1.
AFGHANISTAN:
Intemationsl boundary
- - Intemel sdministrative boundary
? National capital
O Intemel edminiatrative capital
Railroad
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FIGURE 2.
AFGHANISTAN: SNOW DEPTH , MID-MARCH TO MID-APRIL
1985 COMPARED TO 1984
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