MULTILATERAL DEVELOPMENT BANKS: THEIR ROLE IN LDC FINANCING

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Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/12/22 : CIA-RDP85T01058R000303670001-7 Central Intelligence Agency DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE 3 January 1985 Multilateral Development Banks: Their Role in LDC Financing MDBs. 341 Sumnary Multilateral development banks (MDBs) -- the World Bank and the Inter-American, African, and Asian Development Banks -- play an important secondary role in LDC financing, holding about 15 percent of total LDC debt. The distribution of these loans varies widely among individual countries and regions. The regional MDBs lend to countries that are in the same region as the bank, while the World Bank and its affiliates extend loans on a global basis. To date the largest individual country borrowers from the MDBs on a cumulative basis have been Brazil, Colombia, India, Indonesia, Mexico, the Philippines, South Korea, Turkey, and Yugoslavia. Low income countries in Africa and Asia are most dependent on these loans, with one-third of their debt held by the mid-1970s. MDB loans favor specific sectors of the Third World economy. Agriculture continues to be a major area of importance because of the promotion of food self-sufficiency. Social programs and industrial projects are also major targets for MDB funds, while the energy sector has attracted more funds since Branch o information herein is updated to 31 December 1984. Comments may be directed to Financial Issues Financial Issues Branch, Office of Global issues. The This memorandum was prepared by -25X1 25X1 25X1 ....,r,i,...,,~..,. Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/12/22 : CIA-RDP85T01058R000303670001-7 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/12/22 : CIA-RDP85TO1058R000303670001-7 Lending from official sources -- both governments and MDBs is playing a greater role in the financial rescue packages that are being assembled for troubled debtors. Commercial banks recently have stressed the need for greater official financing for LDCs such as Argentina and the Philippines because the banks are unwilling to be the only provider of funds. In addition, the IMF has requested specific commitments of official credits prior to approval of Fund assistance programs. Nonetheless, we doubt that MDBs will replace commercial banks as a major source of funds for the more developed LDCs. Western industrial governments are unwilling to substantially increase contributions, and there are sound arguments against substantially increased institutional borrowing on international capital markets. MDBs, however, will remain a key source of funds for the poorer LDCs. Increased MDB links with private creditors would be beneficial to all parties, particularly as a complement to the IMF's involvement in short-term economic adjustment. Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/12/22 : CIA-RDP85TO1058R000303670001-7 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/12/22 : CIA-RDP85T01058R000303670001-7 ' I I MULTILATERAL DEVELOPMENT BANKS: THEIR ROLE IN LDC FINANCING History of Multilateral Development Banks Multilateral development banks (MDBs) had their beginning after World War II with the formation of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) -- the World Bank -- as part of the Bretton Woods agreement on international monetary reform. The purpose of the World Bank was, and continues to be, to promote the economic and social development of less developed countries (LDCs). Since its creation in 1945, the IBRD has undergone substantial growth and evolution, expanding from a single institution to a three-part lending operation. The International Finance Corporation (IFC) -- created in 1956 -- attempts to promote and support private enterprise in the Third World by bringing together foreign and domestic investment capital for development projects. The other affiliate, the International Development Association (IDA), was established in 1960 to provide concessional lending to the poorest LDCs. (Table 1) Besides the World Bank group, three other major regional" development banks have been created. The Inter-American Development Bank (IADB) was formed in 1959 in response to a plea from Latin American nations for funds to increase their political and economic cooperation. The United States took the lead and became the major contributor to the bank. US motives for contributing to the IADB, however, were not solely humanitarian in nature; financial journals suggest that the Eisenhower administration chose to support the IADB in order to encourage Latin American nations to manage their countries in a way that was consistent with US policy for the region. Unlike the IADB, which accepts contributions from countries outside the region, the African Development Bank (AFDB) was formed in 1964 by African nations who wanted to control the financing of their economic development. Although the AFDB initially limited its members to African nations, non-regional developed countries were permitte~ to join in 1967 in order to fund the bank's new "soft " 1Pn g facility, the African Development Fund (AFDF). 1 "Soft window" facilities are designed for lending to the poorest LIEs, which are unable to meet the terms of general MOB loans. 25X1 25X1 25X1 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/12/22 : CIA-RDP85T01058R000303670001-7 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/12/22 : CIA-RDP85TO1058R000303670001-7 Table 1 Major Multilateral Development Banks World Bank (IBRD) International Finance Corporation (IFC) International Develop- ment Association (IDA) Inter-American Development Bank (IADB) African Development Bank (AFDB) Asian Development Bank (ADB) Head- Year quarters Est. Washington 1945 Washington 1956 Washington 1960 Washington 1959 Abidjan, 1964 Ivory Coast Manila, 1.965 Philippines No.of Members ...'"," Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/12/22 : CIA-RDP85T01058R000303670001-7 -"" Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/12/22 : CIA-RDP85T01058R000303670001-7 A third major regional development bank, the Asian Development Bank (ADB), was created in 1965. Asian countries relied heavily on non-regional capital to establish the ADB, with the United States and Japan contributing the largest sums. The ADB also established the Asian Development Fund (ADF) in order to provide concessional funds to the region's poorest members. Operations of MDBs MDBs operate much like commercial banks. A board of directors approves individual bank loans while the representatives of member countries vote on policy matters. All MDBs are funded primarily by members' subscriptions and by borrowing on international capital markets. Since MDBs attempt to promote long-term development projects in the Third World, however, their lending terms are more concessional than those of commercial banks. Structural Organization MDBs, like many international organizations, were established by the efforts of various member nations. The major contributors to MDBs are Western industrial nations, with the remaining contributions coming from regional member countries. In all cases, the amount of capital a country contributes to an MDB determines that country's voting power. A country's voting power, in turn, determines its representation on an MDB's board of directors. This board oversees bank operations and elects the bank president in addition to approving loans. Each MDB also has a second governing body, the board of governors, which is comprised of one delegate from each member country. The board of governors meets annually to elect the board of directors and vote on policy matters. The distribution of voting power varies among individual MDBs. The World Bank's voting is controlled by Western industrial nations, which have about 59 percent of the total votes as opposed to 41 percent for the LDCs. The United States is by far the most influential IBRD member with more than 19 percent of the votes. These same patterns exist in the IDA and IFC. Among the regional development banks, the regional members control the majority of the votes in each case (ADB- 64 percent, AFDB- 65 percent, and IADB- 93 percent). The United States is a major shareholder in each of these MDBs. (Table 2) Funding In order to finance their lending for development projects, MDBs obtain funds from three sources (Table 3): o Member countries provide capital subscriptions, known as general capital increases (GCIs). A GCI, which is authorized periodically by each MDB, is composed of two parts. One portion of a member country's subscribed capital -- known as "paid-in" capital -- is distributed 25X1 25X1 r..~..? ~~ Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/12/22 : CIA-RDP85T01058R000303670001-7 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/12/22 : CIA-RDP85TO1058R000303670001-7 Table 2 MDBs: Member Countries' Voting Power, 1983 IBRD Percent of Total IDA Percent of Total United States 19.20 United Sta tes 19.54 United Kingdom 6. t5 West Germa ny 7.14 West Germany 5.97 Japan 7.06 Japan 5.94 United Kin gdom 7.01 France 5.03 France 3.74 China 4.09 Canada 3.45 India 4.01 India 3.27 Italy 3.47 Italy 2.58 Canada 3.22 Sweden 2.40 Netherlands 2.65 Saudi Arab ia 2.22 Australia 2.24 Netherlands 2.00 Belgium 2.19 China 1.90 Saudi Arabia 1.98 Brazil 1.70 Brazil 1.89 Argentina 1.69 Indonesia 1.38 Australia 1.44 Venezuela 1.35 Belgium 1.21 Sweden 1.31 Spain 1.20 Others 27.93 Others 30.45 IFC Percent of Total IADB Percent of Total United States 25.53 United Stat es 35.00 United Kingdom R.63 Brazil 12.12 West Germany 5.81 Argentina 10.59 France 5.17 Mexico 7.80 Japan 4.48 Venezuela 5.68 Canada 3.68 Canada 4.58 India 3.48 Chile 3.33 Italy 3.36 Colombia 3.33 Netherlands 2.56 Peru 1.43 Belgium 2.43 Uruguay 1.31 Australia 2.16 Japan 1.13 Brazil 1.81 United King dom 1.01 Argentina 1.75 West German y 0.91 Saudi Arabia 1 .65 France 0.89 Indonesia 1.32 Italy 0.89 Venezuela 1..28 Spain 0.89 Sweden 1.25 Bolivia 0.86 Others 25.65 Others 36.66 "'~"" Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/12/22 : CIA-RDP85TO1058R000303670001-7 ~- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/12/22 : CIA-RDP85T01058R000303670001-7 I I Table 2 (cont.) MDBs: Member Countries' Voting Power, 1983 AFDB Percent of Total Percent of Total Nigeria 8.21 United Sta tes 17.97 United States 5.86 Japan 8.99 Libya 5.09 India 8.59 Japan 4.85 Australia 7.89 Egypt 4.60 Canada 7.18 West Germany 3.67 South Kore a 6.93 Algeria 3.58 Indonesia 3.86 Canada 3.36 Philippine s 3.51 France 3.36 West Germa ny 3.16 Zaire 3.32 United Kin gdom 3.07 Morocco 3.03 New Zealan d 2.42 Zimbabwe 2.77 Malaysia 2.15 Zambia 2.62 Pakistan 1.81 Ivory Coast 2.57 France 1.51 Ghana 2.49 Italy 1.30 Italy 2.21 Thailand 1.30 Ethiopia 1.75 China 1.13 Others 36.66 Others 17.23 25X1 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/12/22 : CIA-RDP85T01058R000303670001-7 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/12/22 : CIA-RDP85T01058R000303670001-7 Table 3 1 MDB RESOURCES - 1983 (Million US $) Paid-In Capital ------- Borrowings Reserves, Accumulated Net Income ---------- ----------- Total Primary Resources --------- Callable Capital -------- IBRD 4,968 45,015 4,342 54,325 51,042 IDA2 n.a. n.a. n.a. 30,452 n.a. IFC 544 583 263 1,390 n.a. IADB 1,250 2,476 1,487 5,213 12,355 AFDB 1,321 1,224 145 2,690 3,964 1,658 3,418 1,133 6,209 9,852 ----------------------------- 1 Data for the IBRD, IDA, and IFC are for fiscal year 1984 (1 July 1983 - 30 June 1984). 2 The IDA obtains its resources primarily from subscriptions, supplementary resources, contributions, and transfers from the IBRD. Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/12/22 : CIA-RDP85T01058R000303670001-7 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/12/22 : CIA-RDP85TO1058R000303670001-7 to the MDB. The remainder of the subscription -- or "callable" capital -- is held on reserve by the member country and can be drawn upon by the MDB at any time should the MDB encounter liquidity problems. To date, no MDB has ever requested the backing of callable capital. o The MDBs borrow on international capital markets by selling bonds to governments and private investors. Because large amounts of callable capital back :VIDB bond issues and debtor governments traditionally have agreed not to default on MDB loans, MDB bond issues receive extremely high ratings from investors (usually AAA). MDBs, therefore, are able to acquire a large portion of their resources in the bond market. o The banks also retain earnings from MDB loan portfolios and other investments. Fees and interest earned on loans to member countries and interest realized on reserve holdings are included here. Lending MDB member countries receive funds' primarily in the form of loans tied to specific development projects. Prior to approval of a loan, a study is undertaken by the MDB to determine the feasibility of the project and the ability of the borrower to repay the loan. When a member country receives a project loan, it is usually issued in a hard currency -- such as US dollars, Japanese yen, or British pounds. Another type of MDB lending is cofinancing, which involves the joint financing of a development project by an MDB and other sources outside the borrowing country. The three main categories of cofinancing partners are: official sources, which include governments, their agencies, and multilateral financial institutions; export credit agencies; and private financial institutions, including commercial banks, insurance companies, and pension funds. Cofinancing has not been used to a great extent in recent years because of the difficult market conditions affecting the availability of private-sourced credits. The amount of cofinancing in the past few years has been about $6-8 billion, most of it being provided through the World Bank. Over the past decade, the lower income LDCs have received the greater number of cofinancing loans, but the high income countries have obtained a larger amount of funds. Most of the cofinancing has gone toward projects in the energy, industry, transportation, and agriculture sectors. An additional type of MDB loan, which is unique to the World Bank, is the structural adjustment loan (SAL). Structural adjustment lending was introduced in 1980 as the IBRD's way to help developing countries that were experiencing serious balance- of-payments problems following the 1979 oil price hikes. The Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/12/22 : CIA-RDP85TO1058R000303670001-7 ----w-- Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/12/22 : CIA-RDP85T01058R000303670001-7 basic objectives of an SAL are: o To support a program of specific policy changes and institutional reforms to contribute to a sustainable balance-of-payments position over the medium and long term. o To provide foreign exchange to assist a country in meeting the transitional costs of needed structural changes. o To act as a catalyst for lending by other creditors to help ease the balance-of-payments situation. The SAL -- which is similar to an IMF Extended Fund Facility arrangement -- is monitored by the World Bank on a regular basis over the life of the loan, usually one year. If the time required to accomplish needed reforms extends over several years, a series of SALs may be provided. SALs usually consist of two tranches, one of which is disbursed on signing of the agreement and the other upon satisfactory completion of IBRD review. Since the inception of the SAL program, the IBRD has approved 27 SALs in 16 countries for a total of over $4 Killion. Kenya, Turkey, and Bolivia were the first recipients of SALs, during FY1980. The number of SALs approved by the IBRD jumped to seven in FY1981, but the total has remained in the 5-7 range through FY1984. The IFC differs from other MDBs in that it also makes equity investments in private companies in its member countries. These investments are always undertaken with others; local investors and financial institutions are particularly important, providing more than half the financing for ventures assisted by the IFC. Even though it holds equity in companies, the IFC rarely gets involved in the management of the firms. The IFC maintains a continuing interest, however, through field visits and periodic consultations with management. The IFC's investment portfolio changes over time as it sells some of its shares to other investors, preferably in the country where the company is Because MDBs attempt to promote long-term economic and social development in LDCs, their lending terms differ from those extended by commercial banks on the international capital markets. (Table 4) Commercial banks generally provide short- and medium-term financing at market interest rates, while MDBs extend long-term credits at concessional or below-market rates. Most commercial bank credits are based on floating interest rates such as LIBOR -- the London Interbank Offer Rate -- but MDBs traditionally have extended loans at fixed interest rates over the life of the loan. The IBRD and IADB, however, have changed their lending policies somewhat in the past year. These MDBs 25X1 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/12/22 : CIA-RDP85T01058R000303670001-7 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/12/22 : CIA-RDP85TO1058R000303670001-7 Table 4 COMPARATIVE MDB LENDING TERMS As of 1 July 1984 Current Lending Rate (Percent) Type of Rate Commitment Fee (Percent) Other Service Charge (Percent) Maturity (Years) Grace Period (Years) -------------------- 1 Average 1984 loan terms for LDC borrowers. Commercia' ADB Banks 1.00 0.75 0.25-0.50 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/12/22 : CIA-RDP85TO1058R000303670001-7 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/12/22 : CIA-RDP85TO1058R000303670001-7 still fix the interest rate on their loans, but the rate is adjusted periodically based on the institutions' cost of funds. The terms on loans from the IDA and the other "soft window" facilities are considerably easier than those of standard MDB project loans. For example, the IDA charges no interest on its loans and offers a 50-year maturity, including 10 years of grace. These soft loans are directed to the poorest LDCs; the IDA only lends to countries with an annual per capita GNP of less than $806 (in 1982 dollars). Fif LDCs currently are eligible under this criterion. The Importance of MDBs Many LDCs -- particularly poorer countries in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia -- are unable to obtain commercial bank credits because of their generally low credit ratings. MDBs, along with Western governments, provide the bulk of financing to these countries. About one-third of the some $65 billion in medium- and long-term debt held by low income LDCs in Africa and Asia is owed to multilateral creditors. This is in contrast to a figure of about 15 percent for all LDCs. In recent years, MDB lending has played a diverse role. In addition to providing funds to bolster the financial position-s of specific countries, MDBs also have promoted the growth of certain sectors of the Third World economy. Whether distributing loans on a regional or sectoral basis, certain countries and sectors have attracted more emphasis than others. (Table 5) Regional Distribution Although all LDC debtors seek MDB funds, the distribution of MDB loans varies widely among individual countries and regions. The regional MDBs -- IADB, ADB, AFDB -- by definition lend only to countries that are in the same region as the bank. The World Bank, IDA, and IFC. however. extend loans on a global basis. 25X1 25X1 South Korea, Turkey, Colombia, the Philippines, and Yugoslavia, have the largest cumulative borrowing totals from the IBRD. 25X1 The IDA's lending has been directed primarily to countries in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. India, China, and Bangladesh were the largest individual IDA recipients in fiscal 25X1 World Bank lending over the past five years has increased to all regions, with the most funds being directed toward Latin America. Close behind in terms of lending volume are South Asia, East Asia, and North Africa/Middle East. East and West Africa have obtained an increasing amount of IBRD credits, but they still lag far behind the totals of the other regions. During FY 1484, the largest individual borrowers from the IBRD were India, Brazil, and Indonesia. These three countries, along with Mexico, Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/12/22 : CIA-RDP85TO1058R000303670001-7 LI I Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/12/22 : CIA-RDP85TO1058R000303670001-7 25X1 I I Tahle 5 MDB LENDING 1980 1981 1982 1983 I BRD Number of Loans 140 150 136 129 Commitments (Mil US$) 8,809 10,330 11,138 11,949 Disbursements (Mil US$) 5,063 6,326 6,817 8,580 IDA Number of Loans 106 97 107 106 Commitments (Mil US$) 3,482 2,686 3,341 3,575 Disbursements (Mil US$) 1,878 2,067 2,596 2,524 IFC Number of Loans 56 65 58 62 Commitments (Mil US$) 811 612 846 696 Disbursements (Mil US$) 587 530 374 381 IADB Number of Loans 88 81 79 74 Commitments (Mil US$) 2,309 2,493 2,744 3,045 Disbursements (Mil US$) 1,432 1,542 1,663 1,730 AFDB Number of Loans .63 72 77 79 Commitments (Mil US$) 571 636 766 930 Disbursements (Mil US$) 220 200 280 353 ADB Number of Loans 58 54 56 53 Commitments (Mil US$) 1,436 1,678 1,731 1,893 Disbursements (Mil US$) 579 667 795 937 Data for the IBRD, IDA, and IFC are for FY1981-FY1984. 25X1 -??-,r.t.>.?,?~?>? - ? . Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/12/22 : CIA-RDP85TO1058R000303670001-7 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/12/22 : CIA-RDP85TO1058R000303670001-7 year 1984. Moreover, India is by far the largest cumulative IDA borrower, with Bangladesh and Pakistan a distant second and third, respectively. The regional distribution of IFC loan commitments and equity investments is weighted more heavily toward the more developed LDCs. Latin America (especially Brazil, Mexico, and Argentina), Asia (India, Indonesia, South Korea, Pakistan, and Thailand), and Europe and the Middle East (Yugoslavia, Turkey, and Egypt) have the largest volume of cumulative IFC assistance. In recent years, however, the IFC has attempted to direct more of its lending to Africa in order to encourage private-sector development in a region that has been far behind other LDCs in the area of private investment. Sectoral Distribution MDBs favor certain countries when distributing funds, but they also favor specific sectors of the Third World economy. o Agriculture traditionally has been a major area of concentration for MDB funds because of the historical importance development specialists have attached to promoting food self-sufficiency in developing countries. About one-third of all MDB lending in 1980 went for agriculture projects. Among the MDBs exami-ned in this paper, only the.IFC, which primarily supports industrial development, fails to allocate a substantial portion of its funds to agriculture. o Social programs -- which include projects for education, population, health, and nutrition -- also account for a large part of MDB lending. These sectors are viewed by MDBs as essential to development for LDCs. o The energy sector has taken on greater importance since the mid-1970s. MDBs have boosted their lending for energy projects to promote development of domestic energy sources as a substitute for high-cost imported energy. o The IFC devotes most of its lending to projects involving light and heavy industry. The other MDBs also have directed more of their lending to the manufacturing sector in an attempt to boost LDC exports and import substitution. Other sectors, which have varying degrees of importance among MDB lending, include transportation, communication, and tourism. (Table 6) 25X1 25X1 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/12/22 : CIA-RDP85T01058R000303670001-7 Li ? Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/12/22 : CIA-RDP85T01058R000303670001-7 25X1 Table 6 MDB LENDING BY SECTORS (Percent) 1975 1980 1983 IBRD Agriculture 28 22 21 Industry/Development Fin. 28 19 23 Transportation 19 16 13 Social Programs 8 14 11 Energy 11 25 22 Non-Project 5 4 10 Tourism 1 0 0 IDA Agriculture 40 46 39 Industry/Development Fin. 17 6 7 Transportation 11 6 16 Social Programs 10 12 21 Energy 2 24 9 Non-Project 20 6 8 IFC Agriculture 5 4 7 Light Industry 19 14 2 Heavy Industry 44 44 52 Fuel and Minerals 14 25 29 Service Industries 0 4 3 Financial Institutions .18 9 7 IADB Agriculture 24 27 16 Industry/Development Fin. 14 11 25 Transportation/Communication 22 20 6 Social Programs 16 16 16 Energy 22 23 32 Non-Project 2 2 2 Other 0 1 3 AFDB Agriculture 21 27 23 Transportation 28 26 24 Utilities 32 24 33 Industry/Development Fin. 8 16 10 Social Programs 11 7 10 ADB Agriculture 26 Industry/Development Fin. 8 Transportation/Communication 19 Social Programs 39 Energy 0 Other 8 69 29 7 19 3 1 13 29 7 22 0 0 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/12/22 : CIA-RDP85T01058R000303670001-7 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/12/22 : CIA-RDP85T01058R000303670001-7 Lending to Debt-Troubled LDCs Lending from official sources -- governments as well as MDBs -- is playing a greater role in the financial rescue packages that are being assembled for troubled debtors. Commercial banks recently have stressed the importance of greater official financing for LDCs such as Argentina and the Philippines because the banks are unwilling to be the only provider of funds. In addition, the IMF has requested specific commitments of official credits prior to approval of Fund assistance programs. The emphasis on increased involvement by all creditors in LDC financial packages has highlighted the need for continued MDB lending. The Outlook for MDBs Despite the slow but steady annual growth in MDB commitments, the participants of the June 1984 London Economic Summit -- the Western industrial nations -- called for an "expanding role" for the World Bank in the Third World debt crisis. The Summit communiques did not specify the participants' expectations for expansion of the World Bank's role, but new provisions could include: supplementary technical assistance, increased lending, or more concessional lending terms. If the World Bank and other MDBs are to ease the plight of LDCs by providing them with additional funds, however, the MDBs must obtain additional resources. Although the potential for generating supplemental funds exists, problems will arise as MDBs attempt to expand their capital bases. MDBs rely heavily on GCIs to finance their lending during the period of time for which funds were allocated. If an MDB decided to increase present lending, then it would have less funds available for subsequent lending under the current GCI.. For example, the World Bank is not due for another GCI until FY 1986. If the Bank were to substantially increase flows to LDCs in 1985, less money would be available to fund projects currently being planned for FY1986. The GCI scheduled for FY1986 is not assured, however. Confrontations between member countries and the IBRD could arise over the total amount of the proposed GCI and over changes in voting power because of reductions or augmentations in a country's subscribed capital. In addition, many member countries face budgetary constraints that could affect the timing and the amount of any proposed new commitment. Member nations also could question the World Bank's request for additional funding because the IBRD maintains a growing reserve of undisbursed funds and because retained earnings nearly equal yearly lending. The World Bank possesses the greatest retained earnings-to-disbursements ratio of any MDB; in some years retained ea rnin s have equalled 70 percent of all IBRD lending. 25X1 25X1 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/12/22 : CIA-RDP85T01058R000303670001-7 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/12/22 : CIA-RDP85TO1058R000303670001-7 Because of the complexities of obtaining member approval for GCI and the time lag involved in receiving these funds, MDBs may have to borrow funds on the international capital markets to raise capital. Most financial observers believe the current outlook for increased MDB borrowing in capital markets is favorable. Even though most MDBs have stated in their program projections that they intend to increase borrowing, they cannot do so indefinitely because their capital-to-borrowing ratios would fall, resulting in lower bond ratings. This might cause investors to withdraw funds from the MDB bond market. A more feasible method of providing additional support to debt troubled LDCs is through increased use of cofinancing. Although cofinancing has not proved as effective as many MDBs had anticipated, the World Bank for one is proposing a new scheme to restructure its cofinancing program. The plan involves channeling initial loan repayments to the private investor with the World Bank being repaid later. Although this new approach would appear to enhance the attractiveness of cofinancing, problems exist that could hinder its growth: o First, LDCs may decide not to-engage in cofinancing. .Since many of the debtors receive IMF assistance, they must comply with IMF-supported austerity measures and economic performance targets. A sudden inflow of cofinancing funds could cause debtors to surpass money supply targets. For example, press reports have stated that Brazil probably will reject a $2 billion cofinancing program for this reason. o Second, there could be a lack of support from private creditors. Although the World Bank's new scheme seems to provide favorable terms to creditors engaging in cofinancing, there would be no official guarantee of repayment under the new program. Actually, private creditors receive no substantial benefits from cofinancing over direct investment in LDC projects. Nonetheless, we expect that MDB lending will continue to play an important, but secondary role in LDC financing. MDBs will remain major sources of long-term loans especially for development projects in poorer LDCs who continue to need to borrow at concessional rates. MDBs will not replace commercial banks as a major source of funds for the more developed LDCs, however. Despite calls for a greater role for the World Bank in the LDC debt situation, we believe the unwillingness of Western industrial governments to substantially increase contributions will restrict the power and influence of MDBs, including the World Bank, keeping the burden of LDC financing on commercial banks. 25X1 25X1 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/12/22 : CIA-RDP85TO1058R000303670001-7 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/12/22 : CIA-RDP85T01058R000303670001-7 Even so, discussions among financial analysts continue over what role the IBRD, in particular, should play in LDC adjustment and the Bank is examining additional ways in which it can assist LDCs within the constraints of limited funds. For example, the IBRD has held discussions and consultations with official export credit agencies in OECD countries on ways to boost export credits to LDCs through increased cofinancing. The IBRD also has developed a proposal for a multilateral investment guarantee agency -- independent of the IBRD -- that would encourage investment in LDCs by issuing guarantees to investors. Overall, we believe greater MDB links with private creditors would be beneficial, particularly as a complement to the IMF's involvement in short-term economic adjustment. The MDBs and the IMF, however, will need to better coordinate their activities -- with clear lines of responsibility drawn,-- in order to maximize the benefits for developing countries. Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/12/22 : CIA-RDP85T01058R000303670001-7 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/12/22 : CIA-RDP85TO1058R000303670001-7 ANNEX: MDB Lending to Individual Countries This annex contains tables that show individual country borrowing from the six MDBs discussed in this paper -- the World Bank (IBRD), the International Development Association (IDA), the International Finance Corporation (IFC), the Inter-American Development Bank (IADB), the African Development Bank (AFDB), and the Asian Development Bank (ADB). The data cover the most recent year's loans along with the cumulative borrowing totals since the inception of the individual MDBs. Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/12/22 : CIA-RDP85TO1058R000303670001-7 ____ Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/12/22 : CIA-RDP85T01058R000303670001-7 MDB Lending to Individual Countries WORLD BANK (IBRD) (Million US $) FY1984 Total Cumulative FY1984 Cumulative (FY1947-84) Total (FY1947-84) Latin America Argentina 0 Africa 1,918 Botswana 45 222 Bahamas 0 23 Burundi 0 5 Barbados 14 60 Cameroon 22 560 Belize 0 5 Congo 0 112 Bolivia 0 299 Ethiopia 0 109 Brazil 1,604 9,942 Gabon 0 69 Chile 0 605 Ghana 0 207 Colombia 464 4,145 Guinea 0 75 Costa Rica 0 407 Ivory Coast 251 1,339 Dominican Rep. 4 296 Kenya 145 1 167 Ecuador 0 694 Liberia 0 , 156 El Salvador 0 216 Madagascar 0 33 Guatemala 50 346 Malawi 18 93 Guyana 0 80 Mali 0 2 Haiti 0 3 Mauritania 0 126 Honduras 20 504 Mauritius 60 189 Jamaica 45 642 Nigeria 438 2 574 Mexico 576 7,316 Senegal 0 , 165 Nicaragua 0 234 Sierra Leone 0 19 Panama 74 545 South Africa 0 242 Paraguay 30 458 Sudan 0 166 Peru 1.23 1,667 Swaziland 6 67 Trinidad/Tobago 0 125 Tanzania 0 318 Uruguay 0 456 Togo 0 20 Venezuela 0 383 Uganda 0 8 Regional It 0 43 Upper Volta 0 2 Zaire 0 220 East Asia Zambia 75 679 Australia 0 418 Zimbabwe 96 477 China 616 1,179 Regional 0 251 Fiji 0 84 Indonesia Japan 1,033 0 7,018 South Asia 863 Bangladesh 0 46 Korea, South 769 5,249 Burma 0 33 Malaysia 70 1,680 India 1,721 7 275 New Zealand 0 127 Pakistan 132 , 1 229 Papua New Guinea 49 194 Sri Lanka 12 , 149 Philippines 183 4,062 Singapore 0 181 Taiwan 0 329 Thailand 153 3,466 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/12/22 : CIA-RDP85T01058R000303670001-7 _..._ Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/12/22 : CIA-RDP85TO1058R000303670001-7 MDB Lending to Individual Countries IBRD (continued) (Million US $) FY1984 Cumulative Total (FY1947-84) Europe/Middle Algeria East/N.Africa 418 1,619 Austria 0 106 Belgium 0 76 Cyprus 44 240 Denmark 0 85 Egypt 458 2,487 Finland 0 317 France 0 250 Greece 0 491 Hungary 239 478 Iceland 0 47 Iran 0 1,211 Iraq 0 156 Ireland 0 153 Israel 0 285 Italy 0 400 Jordan 130 351 Lebanon 0 117 Luxembourg 0 12 Malta 0 8 Morocco 966 2,510 Netherlands 0 244 Norway 0 145 Oman 15 77 Portugal 73 1,016 Romania 0 2,184 Spain 0 479 Syria 30 536 Tunisia 135 1,347 Turkey 794 5,241 Yugoslavia 451 4,233 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/12/22 : CIA-RDP85TO1058R000303670001-7 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/12/22 : CIA-RDP85TO1058R000303670001-7 Latin America Argentina Barbados Bolivia Brazil Chile Colombia Costa Rica FINANCE CORPORATION (IFC) (Million US$) FY1984 Cumulative Total (FY1956-84) Dominican Rep. Ecuador El Salvador Guatemala Guyana Haiti Honduras Jamaica Mexico Nicaragua Panama Paraguay Peru Trinidad/Tobago Uruguay Venezuela Regional South Asia Afghanistan Bangladesh India Nepal Pakistan Sri Lanka Europe/Middle Cyprus Egypt Finland Greece Iran Israel Italy Jordan Lebanon Morocco Oman Portugal Spain Tunisia Turkey Yemen AR Yugoslavia INTERNATIONAL FY1984 Cumulative Total (FY1956-84) MDB Lending to Individual Countries 42.7 0.3 0 61.2 0 6.8 0 0 0.1 0 0 0 0 0 0 25.2 0 0 0.3 9.2 0.7 0 0 43.7 3.0 27.4 0.1 East/N.Africa 0 8.0 0 0 0 0 0 0.7 0 0 0 14.5 0 1.0 150.0 0 64.7 Africa 220.0 Botswana 0.3 Burundi 9.3 Cameroon 1044.3 Congo 56.4 Ethiopia 126.4 Gambia 6.7 Ghana 18.9 Guinea' 28.0 Ivory Coast 1.1 Kenya 18.2 Lesotho 2.0 Liberia 1.5 Madagascar 10.5 Malawi 10.4 Mali 755.5 Mauritania 9.5 Mauritius 7.8 Niger 13.9 Nigeria 65.5 Rwanda 3.1 Senegal 23.5 Sierra Leone 32.1 Somalia 10.0 Sudan Swaziland 0.3 Tanzania 2.6 Uganda 267.1 Upper Volta 1.1.4 Zaire 191.9 Zambia 35.7 Zimbabwe Regional 5.9 East Asia 196.4 Australia 3.1 Fiji 67.1 Indonesia 42.5 Korea, South 10.5 Malaysia 1.0 Philippines 94.9 Taiwan 9.1 Thailand 99.1 Regional 2.0 25.8 20.7 22.8 389.3 7.0 421.7 0 0 0 1.5 0 3.0 60.0 0 1.3 47.2 0 0.2 0 0 0 0 0 0 4.9 0.3 3.2 0 0 0 0 3.9 2.9 0 0.6 5.8 2.3 0 0.4 5.6 15.3 5.2 15.8 3.0 60.0 14.8 12.3 116.3 0.3 0.7 15.2 25.8 2.9 20.0 2.4 2.1 27.1 1.1 36.2 2.1 0.4 33.0 8.5 11.8 17.1 0.5 5.7 91.4 40.3 0.7 0 0 7.1 34.6 1.0 0 0 57.7 1.1 1.0 6.0 169.3 171.7 9.7 159.7 9.8 226.7 1.1 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/12/22 : CIA-RDP85TO1058R000303670001-7 -?------- - Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/12/22 : CIA-RDP85TO1058R000303670001-7 MDB Lending to Individual Countries INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION (IDA) FY1984 Total (Million US $) Cumulative FY1984 Cumulative (FYi961-84) Total (FY1961-84) Latin America Africa Bolivia 0 105 Benin 35 209 Chile 0 19 Botswana 0 16 Colombia 0 20 Burundi 5 183 Costa Rica 0 6 Cameroon 0 253 Dominica 0 5 Cape Verde 0 7 Dominican Rep. 0 22 C.A.R. 0 79 Ecuador 0 37 Chad 0 79 El Salvador 0 26 Comoros 8 33 Guyana 0 39 Congo 0 75 Haiti 19 224 Djibouti 6 15 Honduras 0 83 Eq.Guinea 6 10 Nicaragua 0 60 Ethiopia 105 605 Paraguay 0 46 Gambia 21 56 St.Vincent 5 5 Ghana 125 406 Regional 0 14 Guinea 47 202 South Asia Guinea-Bissau 8 53 Afghanistan 0 230 Ivory Coast 0 8 Bangladesh 393 2,940 Kenya 65 697 Bhutan 9 9 Lesotho 15 85 Burma 55 665 Liberia 18 107 India 1,001 12,530 Madagascar 31 426 Maldives 0 8 Malawi 83 409 Nepal 149 505 Mali 71 319 Pakistan 175 2,021 Mauritania 8 87 Sri Lanka 55 710 Mauritius 0 20 Niger 12 226 East Asia Nigeria 0 36 China 424 734 Rwanda 9 218 Indonesia 0 932 Senegal 62 349 Korea, South 0 111 Sierra Leone 22 111 L aos 0 53 Somalia 32 227 Papua New Guinea 0 113 Sudan 91 873 Philippines 0 122 Swaziland 0 8 Solomon Islands 4 10 Tanzania 35 788 Taiwan 0 15 Togo 0 197 Thailand 0 125 Uganda 123 490 Vanuatu 2 2 Upper Volta 7 254 Vietnam 0 60 Zaire 67 562 Western Samoa 0 14 Zambia 22 131 Zimbabwe 0 54 Europe/Middle East/N.Africa Regional 75 92 Egypt 981 Jordan 85 Morocco 51 Syria 47 Tunisia 0 75 Turkey 0 179 Yemen AR 56 395 Yemen PDR 17 171 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/12/22 : CIA-RDP85TO1058R000303670001-7 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/12/22 : CIA-RDP85TO1058R000303670001-7 MDB Lending to Individual Countries INTER-AMERICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK (IADB) 1983 Total (Million US $) Cumulative (1961-83) Argentina 80 2,717 Bahamas 0 5 Barbados 5 66 Bolivia 59 916 Brazil 441 4,476 Chile 548 1,552 Colombia 406 2,141 Costa Rica 42 686 Dominican Republic 96 901 Ecuador 83 1,126 El Salvador 15 609 Guatemala 168 793 Guyana 0 118 Haiti 19 226 Honduras 130 670 Jamaica 120 406 Mexico 286 3,119 Nicaragua 31 466 Panama 112 637 Paraguay 49 509 Peru 265 1,431 Trinidad and Tobago 0 19 Uruguay 50 427 Venezuela 30 334 Regional 0 686 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/12/22 : CIA-RDP85TO1058R000303670001-7 _ Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/12/22 : CIA-RDP85T01058R000303670001-7 MDB Lending to Individual Countries AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK (AFDB) 1983 Total Cumulative (1967-83) (Million US $) 1983 Total Cumulative (1967-83) Algeria 0 24 Malawi 21 114 Angola 61 63 Mali 1 109 Benin 0 79 Mauritania 0 57 Botswana 38 126 Mauritius 0 33 Burundi 12 116 Morocco 32 114 Cameroon 24 116 Mozambique 0 119 Cape Verde 2 34 Niger 3 67 C.A.R. 15 78 Nigeria 0 7 Chad 0 43 Rwanda 32 105 Comoros 0 57 Sao Tome 0 8 Congo 0 87 Senegal 5 75 Djibouti 13 14 Seychelles 9 21 Egypt 22 144 Sierra Leone 0 48 Eq.Guinea 5 21 Somalia 5 61 Ethiopia 55 179 Sudan 0 69 Gabon 20 69 Swaziland 11 59 Gambia 21 69 Tanzania 22 138 Ghana 31 96 Togo 0 69 Guinea 44 100 Tunisia 47 170 Guinea-Bissau 6 53 Uganda 38 126 Ivory Coast 14 65 Upper Volta 14 75 Kenya 56 166 Zaire 72 215 Lesotho 16 81 Zambia 27 127 Libya 0 0 Zimbabwe 7 46 Liberia 19 91 Regional 34 117 Madagascar 76 123 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/12/22 : CIA-RDP85T01058R000303670001-7 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/12/22 : CIA-RDP85T01058R000303670001-7 25X1 MDB L AS ending to Individual C IAN DEVELOPMENT BANK ( 1983 Total ountries ADB) (Million US $) Cumulative (1967-83) Afghanistan 0 95 Bangladesh 273 1,320 Bhutan 5 5 Burma 80 486 Cook Islands 0 3 Fiji 0 46 Hong Kong 0 102 Indonesi a 426 2,366 Kampuche a 0 2 Kiribati 0 2 Korea, S outh 193 1,776 Laos 14 51 Malaysia 82 885 Maldives 0 1 Nepal 83 380 Pakistan 312 1,766 Papua Ne w Guinea 28 165 Philippi nes 235 1 835 Singapor e 0 , 181 Solomon Islands 8 23 Sri Lank a 35 356 Taiwan 0 100 Thailand 114 1 360 Tonga 2 , 8 Vanuatu 2 Vietnam 45 Western Samoa 37 Sanitized Copy Approved for Release 2009/12/22 : CIA-RDP85T01058R000303670001-7