ECUADOR: AN OPPORTUNITY GOING, GOING, NEARLY GONE

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00875R002000210024-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 4
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 28, 2006
• Sequence Number: 24
• Publication Date: November 23, 1964
• Content Type: MEMO

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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE A G E N C Y
OFT, ICE OF NATIONAL ESTIMATES
23 November 1964
STA 3 T MEMORANDUM NO. 53-EJ (Internal ONE Working Paper --
CIA L'iatribuLion Only)
1. Thn Military Junta, which acized power in July 1963
from the discredited Aroaenena regime, had widespread support
and an opportunity to undertake far-reaching change.* Although
it declared its intention to effect badly needed political
and social reform before returning power to an elected civil
government, its performance hag been (eLsappoiuting. It has
initiated some useful, tzough modeEst, measures, e,g., an
agrarian reform law, a civil service act,, and several finan-
cial improvements. But there measures, of which implementa-
tion has been slow, fall sh;rt of the reforms needed. And the
outlook is not bright for more vigorous action during the next
few months.
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2. The Junta has loot some of its initial popular support
and is encountering increasing criticism within the military.
There ~.s wrangling and disagreement among its members.* The
one seemingly bright star, General Gandara, has faded perceptibly,
though he has served as a partial brake on the ambitious Colonel
F`reile. We think the possibility hao increased that the Junta
will be realigned or replaced, perhaps as a result of a bid by
Fireia.e for sole po rer. Freile has a powerful trump card: the
Air Force, competent and loyal to him, can pose a threat to the
capital while enjoying immunity at a base in the Galapagos Islands,
some six hundred miles off the coast; on occasion, he has moved
his planes to the Galapagos to intimidate the other Junta non-
bers.
3. In accompaniment to these rumblings within the mili-
tary, Ecuador's disparate political groups have voiced demands
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for elections and a "return to constitutionalism."* The Inrtios,
however, arc as peraonallatic and archaic as ever. There is a
dearth of responsible politicyl Leaders and a plethora of dema-
gogues. Unhappily, the demagoguna ucuei ly win in Ecuador
Velasco Ibarra has been four-times elected to the Presidency,
thrice deposed). A military candidate mi,ht be nominated, the
unsavory Colonel Freile a likely possibility.
4. In short, the prospects are not promising. Ecuador has
yet to have a revolution, peaceful. or otherwise, irhich will end or
materially lesson the power of the short-sighted oligarchy which
dominates the country. The longer this revolution is delayed,
the more likely that its ultimate course will be violent and ex..
treme; under these circumstances, the Coi=uni cta, now few and
badly divided, could be expected to gain much. The Junta has
bumbled along for almost el.ghteen month u; it may continue to do
so. In any event, about the most that can now be realistically
expected from it or ozy li%ely successor regi=--, military or
civilian, is more of the c5ale.
* The Junta has stated that it will annnuce in January its plan
for the "return"; a possible turnover date is next summer or
fall. Tb Junta, however, is almost certai dy not in agreement
on the matter.
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