INTELLIGENCE MEMORANDUM CHINA: PROGRESS IN COMPUTERS

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00875R001700040059-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 30, 2006
• Sequence Number: 59
• Publication Date: December 1, 1972
• Content Type: IM

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Confidential
DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Intelligence Memorandum
China: Progress in Computers
CIA
..a :a Y~ cai~ l~
60 NUT DESTROY
Confidential
ER IM 72-176
December 1972
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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
Directorate of Intelligence
December 1972
INTELLIGENCE MEMORANDUM
C1!-HNA: PROGRESS IN COMPUTERS
SUMMARY
1. The efforts of the People's Republic of China (PRC) to establish
a computer industry have not yet led to large-scale production or widespread
application of computers in the economy. Nevertheless, China has
established a viable production base, trained a cadre of computer
technicians, and.adapted foreign computer technology to Chinese conditions
of manufacture and use. Since the beginning of regular production in 1962,
continual improvements have been made in the characteristics of Chinese
computers, but in many respects, those in production today are only as
effective as US computers of 10 years ago.
2. China's computer industry is unlikely to produce more than 70
computers in 1972. Nonetheless, the industry has made the transition from
tube to semiconductor circuitry and is preparing to produce "third
generation" computers using simple forms of integrated circuits (ICs).
Production of third generation computers in significant numbers must await
commercial scale production of the IC components, which presently are
produced only on a laboratory scale.
3. Digital computers now predominate in China's output mix,
although analog computers are produced for special purposes such as process
control and solving mathematical problems. Output in small batches of three
to six computers per batch is common throughout the industry. Manual
methods of assembly prevail. The computer factories must produce for
themselves most special components, such as core memories; normally other
factories supply common electronics components such as silicon transistors.
4. China is in the hardware stage of computer de,relopment.
Domestic computers are still programmed predominently in machine
Note: This memorandum was prepared by the Office of Economic Research
and coordinated within CIA.
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language. To date, little attention has been given to advanced programming
languages. In the next few years, production of standardized models of
computers should expand sufficiently to justify the preparation of program
compilers and other systems software. Then the Chinese will be able to
program in higher level languages' such as FORTRAN and to build up
libraries of standard programs. Some preliminary studies of FORTRAN and
PL-1 (both higher level languages) are now under way.
5. The development of computers in the PRC is concentrated at
research institutes under the Academy of Sciences and is focused primarily
on computers for scientific and engineering applications, particularly those
supporting high-priority military programs. Some effort has been given to
the application of computers to industrial process control. China continues
to be short of computers for high-priority purposes; therefore, the industry
has given little attention to designing or producing computers for business
use.
6. China apparently employs Japanese and West European computers
for its few major data management tasks. These tasks will grow in
importance with the increasing complexity of China's economy and
ultimately will affect domestic computer design and production. Currently,
China lacks the capability to produce the high-quality input-output
equipment needed by data handling computers, a deficiency that will
probably be corrected by importing technology from Japan, Western
Europe, and the United States. Whereas Japan and Western Europe can
supply computer hardware and software for most of China's needs, Peking
may be interested in certain US equipment and technology at the frontier
of the art, particularly rapid access memory systems and fast, reliable
input-output equipment.
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8. This memorandum evaluates the current level of output and the
state of technology in China's computer industry, and it assesses the need
for computers at the present stage of development of the PRC.
9. China's computer industry is still in its infancy. Production in
1972 is not likely to exceed 70 units. Of these about 50 will be digital
computers and the rest analog. This level of output is small compared with
the production in 1971 of more than 1,000 computers in the USSR and
more than 20,000 in the United States. Including imported computers,
China probably has fewer than 1,000 computers in operation, compared
with more than 100,000 in the United States.
10. Of the seven identified computer plants, four produce digital
computers and three produce analog computers (for plant names and a brief
description of Chinese computers, see the Table). Peking Wire
Communications Plant No. 738 has the largest output, between 20 and
30 computers annually. These consist of models DJS-7 and D 'S-6, the latter
being one of China's largest and fastest digital computers. The overall
performance of the DJS-6 is superior to that of the IBM 1410 (first
produced in 1961) but inferior to the IBM 7040 (first produced in 1963).
Plant No. 738 also recently exhibited a prototy a of model DJS-17 a
general purpose digital computer with IC circuitry. 25X1
the plant
probably is preparing to produce the when integrated circuits
become available.
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China: Computer Production Facilities
1972
Model
Initial Year of
Production or
Date Prototype
Completed
Digital Computers
Peking Wire Communica-
DJS-7
1968
tions Plant No. 738 ?
DJS-6
1970
DJS-17
1972
Peking Radio Plant
Unknown
1965
No. 3 a
Shanghai Radio Plant
Unknown
1968
No. 13 a
TQ-3
1972
TQ-11
1972
Tientsin Electronic
441-B-1
1971
Instruments Plant a
Characteristics of Computer
Transistorized central processing unit (CPU).
Performs 2,700 operations per second (OPS).
Has two magnetic memory drums of 12,000
words each, punched paper tape input.
Transistorized CPU. Performs 100,000 OPS.
Has 16,000- to 32,000-word core memory,
punched paper tape input. China's most ad-
vanced computer now in production. Per-
formancefalls between IBM 1410 (1961)
and IBM 7040 (1963).
Integrated circuits in CPU. Performs about
100,000 OPS. Prototype general purpose
computer, probably intended for eventual
production.
Transistorized CPU. Performs 6,000 OPS.
Has ferrite core memory.
Transistorized CPU. Prototype general pur-
pose computer.
Integrated circuits in CPU. Process control
computer with 8,000-word core memory,
performs about 80,000 OPS. Performance
comparable to PDP-7 (1964).
Integrated circuits in CPU. Process control
computer with 16,000-word core memory,
performs about 50,000 OPS. Performance
comparable to PDP-6 (1964).
Transistorized CPU. This is a general pur-
pose computer designed for scientific ap-
plications and process. control. (Formerly,
this plant produced analog computers.)
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China: Computer Production Facilities
1972 (cont)
Initial Year of
Production or
Date Prototype
Model Completed Characteristics of Computer
Digital Computers (cont)
Workshops of the In. 111
stitute of Computing
Techniques in Pekingb
Workshop of the In- 709
stitute of Computing.
Techniques in Shanghaib
Unknown
1970 Integrated circuits in CPU. Prototype general
purpose computer. Performs about 180,000
OPS. Has a 32,000-word memory (to be ex.
panded to 64,000 words, using thin film
technique) and magnetic tape input. Per-
formance similar to US PDP-10 (1967).
1971 Integrated circuits in CPU. Prototype general
purpose computer.
type version of model 709.'
1972 Integrated circuits in CPU. Improved
Workshops of Tsinghua 112
Universityb
Analog Computers
Ch'ung-ch'ing Geo- Unknown
logical Instru-
ments Planta
Peking Radio Plant
No. 18
1971 'Transistorized CPU. Prototype general
purpose computer.
1971 Transistorized CPU.,Designed to analyze re-
corded data from seismic prospecting. Re.
portedly this machine is on 'a par with
similar products of advanced nations.
DMJ-3 1966 CPU contains both transistors and vacuum
tubes; 98 operational amplifiers. Two units
may be connected to permit solution of dif-
ferential equations up to the 40th order.
Accuracy is 1.5%.
DMJ-2 1968 Transistorized CPU. Thirty operational am-
plifiers. Solves differential equations up
to the eighth order. China's first transis-
torized analog computer.
Shanghai Electric Unknown Uncertain Probably produces transistorized analog com-
R
l
Pl
s
e
ay
ant
puters.(In 1966, this plant produced a vac-
uum tube type of analog computer with 24
operational amplifiers.)
a. Major computer plant.
b. Small factories that produce only prototype models.
5
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11. Shanghai Radio Plant No. 13 probably produces fewer than 10
computers annually. Before 1971 the plant produced a transistorized digital
computer, but it is now preparing to produce small digital process control
computers, models TQ-3 and TQ-1 1, which contain ICs. Because ICs are
not available in quantity and because the production processes are new,
the plant probably cannot produce 10 computers in 1973. Tientsin
Electronic Instrument Plant produces five or six general purpose digital
computers annually. Peking Radio Plant No. 3 is believed to produce
between five and 10 small digital computers annually.
12. Production of a small number of analog computers is divided
among Peking Radio Plant No. 1, Shanghai Electric Relay Plant, and the
Ch'ung-ch'ing Geological Instruments Plant. The Peking and Shanghai plants
produce general purpose analog computers for the solution of scientific and
engineering problems. The Ch'ung-ch'ing plant produces specialized analog
computers for use with seismic prospecting equipment.
13. The workshops of design institutes also make a contribution to
computer production. For example, the workshop at the Institute of
Computing Techniques in Shanghai completed the prototype third
generation general purpose digital computer, model 709, in 1971 and is
now assembling a second improved version. Similarly, the Institute of
Computing Techniques in Peking recently completed a prototypic third
generation general purpose digital computer, model 111. In accordance with
China's educational philosophy of "learn by doing," a substantial amount
of production is performed by students in university workshops. Most such
production must be classified as laboratory production, but it exceeds in
scope and volume the notion of laboratory production in industrialized
countries.
14. Output of computers is still too small for serial production
methods. The plants assemble them by hand in batches of as few as three
and as many as six. Only Peking Wire Communications Plant No. 738
employs such modern techniques as machine insertion of components,
automatic back panel wiring, automatic core testing, and computerized
circuit testing. One of the results of low-volume production is the continual
introduction of minor changes, either to circumvent parts problems or to
improve the design. Consequently, minor but significant differences appear
in the architecture of individual machines of the same model.
Level of Technology
15. In most respects, Chinese digital computers in current production
have performance characteristics similar to those of US computers produced
in the early 1960s. They are not, however, readily adaptable to multiple
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access use, time sharing, or the management of large amounts of data. The
hardware deficiencies responsible for the relatively low level of performance
of Chinese computers are (1) low operating speeds (a maximum of 100,000
operations per second - OPS), (2) small internal memory size (32,000
words maximum), and (3) inferior peripheral equipment.
16. Considering that China has produced computers only during the
last 10 years, notable progress has been made. By 1966, computers with
vacuum tube circuitry, first produced in 1962 on the basis of Soviet models,
had been supplanted completely by fully transistorized models. Central
processing units (CPUs) appear to employ conventional resistor-transistor
logic circuits. The DJS-6, which was first produced in 1970, is the most
advanced digital computer in regular production. It is capable of about
100,000 OPS and has up to 32,000 words of memory capacity. Another
advanced model, the DJS-7, is a transistorized, desk-size, scientific computer
that is capable of 2,700 OPS, has 24,000 words of memory capacity
contained on two magnetic drums, and employs a punched paper tape input
device.
17. The present conversion of Shanghai Radio Plant No. 13 to
production of third generation process control computers, models TQ-3 and
TQ-11, is a new benchmark in the development of China's computer
industry. Both the TQ-3 and TQ-11 are small machines that incorporate
simple ICs in their CPUs. The TQ-3 is capable of about 80,000 OPS and
has a core memory capacity of up to 8,000 words. The TQ-1 I is a somewhat
larger machine with a core memory capacity of up to 16,000 words, but
its speed of 50,000 OPS is slower than that of the TQ-3. US computers
with similar characteristics, e.g., Digital Equipment Corporation's PDP-6 and
PDP-7, were first produced in 1964.
18. The prototype third generation general purpose digital computer,
model 111, developed by the Institute for Computing Techniques in Peking
is China's most advanced machine. Its operating speed of 180,000 OPS and
core memory of 64,000 words represent a substantial improvement over
models in current roduction.
The most complex of the four different ICs used
has only five transistors, but there are a total of 15,000 ICs distributed
!.ni 1,150 circuit cards of 12 different types. The employment of a large
number of circuit cards of a standard design facilitates manufacture of
circuit subassemblies.
19. The series production of model 111, or of a computer of
comparable design, is probably several years away because the required ICs
can be produced only on a laboratory scale at present. Problems of quality
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control appear to be the major obstacles to production of ICs on a
commercial scale. However, the number of ICs needed for current
production of models TQ-3 and TQ-I I can be satisfied by laboratory scale
production.
20. Internal memory in the CPUs of Chinese computers is provided
by ferrite cores with internal diameters as small as 0.032 inch. These cores,
which have access times as short as 2 millionths of a second, perform well
in comparison with US cores which typically have internal diameters
between 0.018 and 0.024 inch and access times of less and I millionth
of a second.
21. In sharp contrast to the core memories, Chinese input-output
equipment is poorly made, unreliable, and of obsolescent design. This
criticism applies particularly to the mechanical drives for paper and magnetic
tape, line printers, and external drum memories. The deficiencies stem
primarily from the generally lagging development of the precision machine
products industry. In addition to problems of quality, the variety of
peripheral equipment is limited. Typically, Chinese computers are equipped
only for input from paper tape and keyboard, and for output to line printer
and keyboard. Input from card readers has not been observed, and neither
card readers nor card punch equipment are believed to be produced in China.
Currently plotters are produced for graphic output; however, a cathode ray
tube which was demonstrated recently in connection with a prototype
computer may be produced before long. Because of frequent failure of
peripheral equipment and the low rate at which output is printed,
domestically produced computers in current use cannot realize the full
capabilities of their CPUs.
Programming
22. Chinese programmers customarily use machine language to
program domestic digital computers. As computers come into wider use
in the PRC, expecially for data handling jobs, people who are not computer
experts and who have little knowledge of computer construction will be
drawn into programming work. Moreover, the large computers that China
is developing will be able to serve more users if they are equipped with
software suitable for multiple access and time sharing. As a result, China's
computers eventually will have to be fitted with compilers so that they
can be programmed by large numbers of users in higher level languages,
such as FORTRAN. It is not practical to try to teach large numbers of
people to program computers in machine language.
23. Recently, the Chinese have been working on ALGOL-60 compilers
for several computers, including the advanced prototype computer
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(model 111) under development at the Institute of Computing Techniques
in Peking. ALGOL-60 is a high-level computer language, designed principally
for scientific and engineering applications. It is not convenient for data
processing programs.
24. The Chinese are beginning to look ahead to the eventual expansion
of the use of computers for data handling, as evidenced by their recent
interest in FORTRAN and PL-1 programming. Both of these higher level,
general purpose languages are suitable for data processing as well as
mathematical problem solving. Programming specialists at the Institute of
Computing Techniques in Peking are examining FORTRAN and PL-1 with
a view to developing a compiler for the third generation computers under
development. To justify the effort of developing compilers for new
computers, the industry will have to do a better job of standardizing models
and avoid the many ad hoc modifications that creep into its product, both
in the producing factories and in the user's facilities.
Computer Applications
many of Chinas computers are at universities and
research institutes. They are employed in the solution of scientific and
engineering problems both for the civilian economy and for the development
of weapons systems. Among the weapons systems that China has developed
with the help of computers are nuclear weapons, guided missiles, fighter
aircraft, jet engines, and naval vessels. Some of the civilian engineering and
scientific problems on which China uses computers are the analysis of
structures such as buildings, bridges, and dams; the analysis of electrical
networks; and weather forecasting.
26. Industrial process control in China employs a relatively small
number of computers, most of which have been imported from Japan and
Western Europe for this purpose. For example, process control computers
are used at the Lan-chou Oil Refinery and at the Shih-ching-shan Iron and
Steel Plant.
27. China has not reported extensively on data processing
applications, but has indicated that computers of both domestic and foreign
origin have been used for processing census data and for economic planning
and accounting. Other applications in China are believed to be central
inventory control, central banking, and railroad traffic management.
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Factors Affecting Applications in China
28. In its present stage of technological development, China needs
hundreds of computers in its universities and technical institutes to spread
understanding of computer capabilities and to foster competence in their
use among scientists and technical students who up to now have had little
or no contact with computers. Except for those scientists at the few
institutes engaged in the development of advanced weapons or of computers
themselves, most of China's scientific community is just beginning to
become familiar with computers.
29. In China the collection, processing, transmission, storage, and
arrayment of economic data at various administrative levels are now
performed by clerks armed with abaci and desk calculators. At present,
with its vast population, China could not rationally allocate computer
capacity to replace this legion of clerks. However, as the economy develops,
the task of collecting, analyzing, and disseminating economic data with
sufficient speed and accuracy will exceed the capacity of manual methods.
The successful operation of a centralized system of economic management
in China will then depend on, among other things, the speeding up of data
preparation by machine methods.
30. In the area of industrial process control, China has made only
slow progress despite the large gains in the productivity of capital equipment
that can be obtained by the use of computers. For example, process control
computers can make decisions and take corrective action in processes such
as smelting and rolling steel, petrochemical production, and electric power
distribution that result in a greater volume and higher quality of product
from a given set of production equipment. To date, most applications of
process control are found in whole plants imported from the West, but
as domestic computers for process control become available in larger
numbers, production processes will be adapted to take advantage of these
gains in productivity.
31. At present, the most urgent factor behind China's concentrated
efforts to produce bigger and faster central processing units probably is
the strategic weapons program. Using computers, China can save time in
the development of nuclear weapons and their missile delivery systems, in
the calculation of the orbits for space vehicles, and in a variety of other
scientific calculations necessary for weapons development. Moreover, a
system of command and control that can direct the deployment and
engagement of the nascent strategic forces requires tl.e coordination and
manipulation of large data inputs -- strong stimuli for developing efficient
data handling computers.
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Dependence on Foreign Technology
32. In the last eight years, China has augmented domestic production
by importing some 50 computers valued at about $20 million from Japan,
France, West Germany, and the United Kingdom. Most of these have been
medium-scale, data handling computers not yet produced in China and
process control computers that have been delivered as integral parts of
imported whole plants. In addition, China has imported large amounts of
peripheral equipment.
By reading the foreign technical literature and
studying imported computers, the Chinese have kept up with current
developments in the computer field. However, they have selected for
domestic production only those features of foreign computers that are
adaptable to Chinese manufacturing conditions and that provide computers
appropriate to current needs.
34. At present, China's greatest need for foreign technology is in the
production of peripheral equipment (such as disc and drum memories,
magnetic tape drives, and line printers) and of certain advanced components
(such as multilayer circuit boards). Because US equipment is preeminent
in these areas, China may wish to obtain some of it from the United States
to copy, and may even wish to obtain technical advice or complete facilities
for its production.
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