INTELLIGENCE MEMORANDUM

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00875R001700030046-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 1, 2010
• Sequence Number: 46
• Publication Date: March 1, 1972
• Content Type: IM

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Secret
Intelligence Memorandum
Petroleum in North Vietnam: A Review of Developments
in 1971
CIA
DOCUMENT SERVICES BRANCH
FILE COPY
DO. NOT DESTROY
Secret
ER IM 72-46
March 1972
Copy N2 51
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WARNING
This document contains information affecting the national
defense of the United States, within the meaning of Title
18, sections 793 and 794, of the US Code, as amended.
Its transmission or revelation of its contents to or re-
ceipt by an unauthorized person is prohibited by law.
GROUP 1
b ck,d.d from aute,,m c
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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
Directorate of Intelligence
March 1972
INTELLIGENCE MEMORANDUM
PETROLEUM IN NORTH VIETNAM:
A REVIEW OF DEVELOPMENTS IN 1971
Summer
I. North Vietnam's petroleum supply position improved during
1971. Imports, mostly diesel fuel and gasoline, advanced 8% to a record
406,000 metric tons, almost all from the USSR. Consumption probably
increased slightly during the year with no evidence of shortages. Stocks
on 1 January 1972 were somewhat higher than at the beginning of 1971
and appeared to be sufficient for about three months' supply.
2. Storage and distribution facilities also were expanded. A major
250 kilometer (km) pipeline network linking Hanoi with the Vinh area was
nearing completion in early 1972. Construction of the dual pipeline system
westward from Bai Chai (near Haiphong) continued toward Hanoi. When
the two systems are joined near the capital, North Vietnam will be able
to import petroleum at Bai Chai port and transport it by pipeline into
the Laotian infiltration system. Capacity of the principal storage facilities
in North Vietr.z:,, was increased by more than 30% in 1971, principally
at Hanoi and Haiphong. Dispersed storage sites also increased, primarily
along North Vietnam's proliferating pipelines. Total storage capacity
throughout the country is now almost two and one-half times the
pre-bombing level and is less vulnerable to attack.
3. Further improvement of North Vietnam's petroleum position is
expected in 1972. Imports probably will be higher than in 1971. Indeed,
during the first two months of 1972 they were more than 60% above the
comparable 1971 level. Discharging of tankers into the pipeline system at
Bai Chai could begin when port facilities are completed. Current exploration
Note: This memorandum was prepared by the Office rf Economic Research
and coordinated within CIA.
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for oil, apparently being conducted by Soviet technicians, is unlikely to
result in production of crude oil in commercial quantities over the next
several years, and meanwhile the country will continue to depend on
imports. The USSR will almost certainly continue to meet North Vietnam's
basic requirements.
Discussion
Imports
4. The record volume of imported petroleum products, slightly above
the 1968 high, accounted for 17% of the volume and 2% of the value
of total seaborne imports. Receipts of petroleum followed the same seasonal
pattern as in previous years (see the chart), peaking at 52,100 tons in May
and falling to 9,300 tons in September Petroleum deliveries
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North Vietnam: Imports of Petroleum, by Month
Thousand Metric Tons
60
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O
1967 1968 1969
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invariably decline during the third quarter when Soviet tankers are diverted
to the Northern Sea Route. The decline was accentuated in 1971, however,
by the limited gasoline and diesel stocks at Soviet Far East ports in August
and September and port congestion at Haiphong in June and July.
5. The USSR supplied 93% of the seaborne petroleum deliveries in
1971 85% from the Soviet Far East and the remainder from
the Black Sea area. Soviet-flag vessels handled all of these deliveries, most
of them in small tankers of 4,000 deadweight tons (DWT), and nine
deliveries in tankers of more than 10,000 DWT. Eastern Europe continued
to supply small quantities of specialty products, mostly lubricants.
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6. China's share of seaborne petroleum deliveries rose from 2% to
6%. The volume from the People's Republic of China (PRC) - 24,600
tons - was the highest since 1968. Some 21,000 tons arrived in three
voyages by the Taipieng, a Chinese-chartered Somali-flag tanker operated
by a Macao firm. These were the first tanker deliveries from China since
February 1969. Some drummed petroleum was delivered in 1971 by Chinese
dry cargo vessels, mostly in a 3,000-ton shipment to Vinh.
7. Fragmentary information suggests that railborne petroleum
deliveries in 1971 amounted to only about 15,000 tons, about the same
as in the last several years. Some 5,000 tons, mostly solvents and a few
lubricants, came from the Soviet Union. The Chinese sent 9,000 tons of
unspecified petroleum by rail in February and March and about 5.00 tons
of diesel fuel for flood relief in September.
Consumption
8. About 396,000 tons of petroleum products probably were
consumed in 1971, slightly more than in 1970 (see Table 3). Increased
activity necessitated by the extensive flooding from August through
North Vietnam: Estimated Petroleum Supply
and Consumption
1971
Thousand Metric Tons
1969
1970
1971
Stocks on hand, 1 January
104
109
100
Imports
389
375
406
Total supply
493
484
506
Less total consumption
384
384
396
Stocks on hand, 31 December
109
100
110
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November and the continuing industrial recovery caused the increase in
consumption. The use pattern is indicated by the product mix of 1971
imports - 216,000 tons of diesel fuel, 136,000 tons of gasoline, 33,000
tons of kerosene, and 20,000 tons of lubricants and other specialty products.
This mix is about the same as in 1970. Most of the diesel fuel and gasoline
was consume-4 by military and public civil transport as well as by the
construction industry. Only the kerosene was destined primarily fcr private
consumption.
Pipelines
9. During 1971 the North Vietnamese made considerable progress
in expanding their petroleum pipeline network (see the map). Work was
started on an apparent extension from the northern terminus of the
presently serviceable Panhandle system in the Vinh area to Hanoi -- a
distance of about 250 km. By the end of the year, two segments of pipeline
totaling 238 km had been observed in this area. The longer segment extends
225 km from a point 7 km south of Hanoi to a point 18 km north of
Cu Dai (30 km northwest of Vinh). The shorter segment extends north
from Cu Dai for 13 km. It is likely that the entire system connectingVinh
with Hanoi will be completed early in 1972.
10. About 20 km of pipe was laid during 1971 along the dual pipeline
system leading from a small port near Bai Chai toward Hanoi. This extended
the pipeline some 70 km west of Bai Chai to the Song Rang River, 9 km
northwest of Hai Duong. As of February 1972, trenches had been dug to
within 50 km of Hanoi. There are still several gaps in the first 70 km,
primarily at river crossings.
11. At present, petroleum is delivered to the Panhandle system,
primarily to the Quang Khe and Vinh areas, on small North Vietnamese
coastal vessels loaded from larger foreign-flag tankers off Haiphong. When
the new pipelines are completed, North Vietnam will be able to transport
petroleum by pipcime from the port of Bai Chai to Hanoi and from Hanoi
into Laos. During 1971, some dredging was noted at Bai Chai along the
quay and in the nearby channel, a quay wall was constructed, and fill dirt
was brought in. Considerable additional work, especially extensive deep
dredging, will be necessary before this new oil port, with its shallow draft
and limited docking facilities, can be used to optimum capacity.
12. A new spur of pipeline parallel to Route 137 southwest of Quang
Khe was constructed during the year, perhaps part of an extension through
the Ban Karai Pass into Laos. This spur would provide another feeder line
into the Laotian logistical system.
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Storage
13. In 1971, reconstruction of damaged and destroyed petroleum
storage facilities was accelerated and expansion of dispersed facilities
continued. Total storage capacity was increased about 11% (see the
tabulation) and by 1 January 1972 was almost two and one-half times the
pre-bombing level.
1?r::ncipal storage
term,:nals
38
49
64
Dispersed storage
Tanks
75
80
90
Drums
80
85
85
Military and industrial
sites (tanks)
5
5
5
14. More than 60% of the net increase in 1971 was brought about
by restoration of the principal storage terminals (see Table 4). At the
Haiphong terminal, five tanks totaling about 7,400 tons of new capacity
were completed during the year, and another 4,000-ton tank neared
completion. At Hanoi, four large vertical tanks and several small
underground tanks were completed, adding 8,800 tons of capacity. At Bac
Giang, four of the large vertical tanks were dismantled, reducing capacity
by 1,100 tons. These tanks may have suffered some damage in the 1966
bombings and may not have been in use since that time.
Dispersed Storage Sites
15. Photography revealed about 220 storage sites
in widely dispersed groups of small horizontal tanks buried in shallow
excavations and covered with earth. The total capacity of this dispersed
storage is 90,000 tons, an increase of about 10,000 tons during 1971. Most
of the new capacity is associated with the expansion of the pipeline systems.
However, a sizable dispersed storage site, unrelated to any pipeline, was
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North Vietnam: Location and Estimated Capacity
of Principal Petroleum Storage Terminals
Capacities as of 1 January
JCS Coordinates (Metric Tons)
Target
Number Name North East 1966 1970 1971 1972
Haiphong 20 52 106 39 40,620 9,800 12,700 20,100
Hanoi 21 03 105 53 30,620 7,300 8,500 17,300
Vinh 18 40 105 53 1,350 2,500 5,300 5,300
Nguyen Khe 21 10 105 51 7,500 7,800 7,800 7,800
Ha Gai 21 16 105 50 9,910 7,720 9,800 9,800
Bac Giang 21 16 106 11 2,260 1,900 1,900 810
Nam Dinh 20 25 106 11 0 600 2,900 2,900
Do Son 20 42 106 47 2,860 0 0 0
Viet Tri 21 17 105 26 1,400 20 20 20
Dnong Nham 21 01 106 30 4,130 0 0 0
under construction near Kep Airfield at the end of the year. Near Trai
Son, a segment of dual pipeline was extended in 1971 from a box canyon
toward the main section of the pipeline, suggesting that the canyon may
become the site of a sizable storage facility. The following tabulation shows
the distribution and estimated capacity as of 1 January for the stated year
(based on the midpoint of a range) of operational dispersed tank storage
facilities:
As of
1 January 1972
As of
1 January 1971
Location
Thousand
Tons
Percent
of
Total
Thousand
Tons
Percent
of
Total
Above 21?
27
30
25
31
Between 20?
59'
and 20?
20
22
16
20
Between 19?
59'
and 19?
7
8
6
8
Between 18?
59'
and 18?
19
21
1b
20
Between 17?
59'
and 17?
17
19
17
21
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16. Small containers, principally 55-gallon drums, continued to be
used extensively in North Vietnam for petroleum storage and distribution.
At the outset of 1972, this capacity probably amounted to 85,000 tons.*
Many of these drums are sent southward for use by VC/NVA forces
throughout Indochina. Since many of these containers probably never return
to North Vietnam, the estimate of drum storage in North Vietnam probably
is inflated.
17. The estimated capacity of the bulk petroleum storage facilities
at military and industrial installations remained at 5,000 tons during 1971.
The "floating" storage capacity represented by barges, rail tank cars, and
tank trucks in North Vietnam is sizable but difficult to estimate. The
operational pipeline system, another form of storage, could hold about
2,000 tons when filled.
Oil Exploration
18. Exploration for oil apparently is under way in North Vietnam,
but there is no evidence of discoveries. At least two Romanian drilling rigs
were delivered to North Vietnam in 1969
Prospects
for finding oil in commercial quantities are uncertain; even if it is discovered,
exploitation would take several years. Meanwhile, North Vietnam will
continue to depend on outside sources for its petroleum.
* This estimate is derived from the tonnage of petroleum shipped to North Vietnam
in containers on dry cargo vessels since the beginning of 1966, reduced by 15% annually
to reflect estimated losses from attacks, normal use, and accidental destruction.
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1 January 1972
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