SOVIET GRAIN CROP PROSPECTS AT THE END OF JULY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00875R001500190026-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 11
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 12, 2004
• Sequence Number: 26
• Publication Date: August 1, 1974
• Content Type: REPORT

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Secret
Soviet Grain Crop P%rpects at the End of July
On file Department` of
Agriculture release instructions
apply.
Secret
ER IB 74-6
August 1974
Copy N2 119
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acre
1. Because of dry weather in July, we have reduced our estimate of the
1974 Soviet grain crop from 205 million metric tons to 198 million tons. Even
though the expected crop still would be second only to last year's bumper crop
of 222.5 million tons, it would barely meet rising requirements.
2. Rainfall, the most important short-run determinant of grain output, was
abundant over most of the grain area from mid-April through June, promising a
harvest even larger than the plan target of 205.6 million tons. However, in July,
weather conditions turned sour in a large part of the grain belt.
3. West of the Urals, with the start of the grain harvest, the July rains
were heavy and accompanied by strong winds. Apparently a large part of the mature
grain crop in the Ukraine and in the European RSFSR was lodged. East of the
Urals the rains failed over a wide area at a time when the grain crop had reached
the critical heading stage. In the first half of July, scant rainfall and very high
temperatures prevailed over about 10 million hectares of grain in Tselinograd and
Pavlodar Oblasts in Kazakhstan and in Altay Kray in West Siberia.
4. We estimate that the hot and dry conditions resulted in a loss of about
8 million tons of grain, primarily spring wheat. Citing widespread weather
difficulties, Deputy Minister of Agriculture B. Runov told a group of USDA
officials in August that this year's harvest would be "only average."
5. By early August the rate of harvest was substantially below last year's
level. If nothing else, the wet and lodged crop west of the Urals will reduce quality
of milling grains, particularly wheat. Lowered quality will especially hurt because,
we estimate, far less wheat will be produced this year - 85 million tons, compared
with 110 million tons in 1973.
6. The reduced output would fall at the lower end of the range of estimated
Soviet domestic requirements and export commitments - 198 million to 211
million tons. The regime has the option of drawing down carryover stocks of 20
million to 30 million tons - an option made possible by the record harvest of
1973. At this stage the milling quality of the carryover wheat and international
prices are the keys to prospects for Soviet grain imports in FY 1975.
Note: Comments and queries regarding this publication are welcomed. They may
be directed to of the Office of Economic
Research,
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Status of the Grain Crop
7. Despite above-average winterkill to fall-sown crops and spring sowing
delays in the Ukraine, Belorussia, and the European RSFSR, the grain area to
be harvested is the largest since 1964 (see Figure 1). The current grain crop covers
nearly 130 million hectares (see Table 1).
Annual
Average
Estimated
1966-70
1971
1972
1973
1974
Total
122.1
117.9
120.1
126.7
129.7
Breadgrains
78.7
73.5
66.7
70.1
67
Winter wheat
18.3
20.7
15.0
18.3
19
Winter rye
11.5
9.5
8.2
7.0
7
Spring wheat
48.9
43.3
43.5
44.8
41
Others
43.4
44.4
53.4
56.6
63
8. Within the grain area, a sizable shift took place from wheat to feedgrains:
? Wheat accounted for only 60 million hectares - 5% less than the
area harvested in 1973;
? Spring barley was planted on 30 million hectares - 8% more than
in 1973; and
? Corn grown for grain occupied 5.2 million hectares - 12% above
last year's level.
The emphasis on feedgrain production, particularly barley, at the expense of wheat,
stems from Brezhnev's policy stressing meat production. Barley has the advantage
of usually providing higher yields than spring wheat; on the other hand, it can
be used only to a small extent for bread and flour. Wheat, however, is easily
substitutable between feed and flour. The continuing curtailment of breadgrain
acreage thus entails risks of food grain shortages.
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USSR: grain
harvested area
1960 62 U4 66 68 70 72 74
prelim.
yield
51 1 I I 1 I I I I I I I I 1 1
1960 62 64 66 68 70 72 74
prelim.
production
225,
v,
c
0
175
a7
E
0 150
E
100
1960
figure 1
1
62
1
64
1
66
68
j-
70
74
Prelim.
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Growing Conditions
9. Growing conditions were not as favorable in 1974 as they were in the
bumper year of 1973. In general, temperatures were below-normal throughout much
of the grain area during the growing season, resulting in a slow and uneven
development of the crop. Moreover, a severe cold wave hit the European USSR
in late May. The Soviet press reported a large area of both spring and winter crops
destroyed in Belorussia by ground temperatures as low as -10.6 degrees centigrade.
Another cold snap hit the European USSR in late June. Rainfall over most of
the country, however, was ample through June, and by midyear the regime's goal
of 205.6 million tons appeared achievable.
10. Weather conditions deteriorated in July over much of the grain belt. West
of the Urals, rains intensified and were accompanied by strong winds. A large part
of the grain crop in the Ukraine, Moldavia, Belorussia, and the European RSFSR
was lodged. East of the Urals the rains failed over a wide area of the spring grain
belt at a time when the grain crop had reached the critical heading stage. For
the first half of July, scant rain fell over about 10 million hectares of grain in
Tselinograd and Pavlodar Oblasts in Kazakhstan and in Altay Kray in West Siberia.
At the same time, these areas were subjected to extremely hot temperatures which
raised the moisture requirements of the plants and increased the evaporation rate.
Cooler temperatures and heavy rains came duri:ig the third week of July - too
late to save much of the crop.
11. We estimate that the hot and dry conditions resulted in a loss of about
million tons of grain. primarily snrinQ wheat
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Estimate of the Crop
12. On the basis of sown area, the weather through July, and average rainfall
and temperatures during August and September, the grain harvest is estimated to
reach about 198 million tons. This would be the second largest crop in Soviet
history - about 10% below last year's record. It would fall at the lower end of
the range of estimated Soviet domestic requirements and export commitments --
198 million to 211 million tons.
crop conditions were as follows in early
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Grain prospects at the end of July 1974*
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* Major grain regions account for 92% of total production.
583999 8-74 CIA
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? In the North Caucasus, Volga, West Kazakstan, and Ukraine regions,
accounting for nearly half the crop, yields are at or near record
levels. The crop in Ural'sk Oblast, for example, was recently
described in the Soviet press as "the best in recent years."
Wheat leaf rust disease, which was reported earlier in the Ukraine
and Krasnodar Kray, has not prevented good yields.
? In northern European USSR, the Urals, and West Siberia, the source
of about one-third of the grain output, a good crop is on hand.
Yields are average or better nearly everywhere; over much of this area
only the persistent cool weather coupled with late planting is pre-
venting an excellent crop.
? In northern Kazakstan and southern Siberia, the crop ranges from
fair to poor, with conditions generally best in the north and worst
in the south. Yields range from about 15 centners per hectare in
Kustanay Oblast to less than 3 centners in Pavlodar Oblast and Altay
Kray. The Soviet press has not assessed the condition of the grain
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crop in this area; silence usually means the crop is in trouble;
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? In the northeastern Urals, the 9 million-ton grain crop is unusually
vulnerable. Cool conditions throughout most of the maturation
period have prevented the crop from overcoming a 3-week delay
in planting. Chances are one in four that a killing frost will hit
the crop before it ripens.
14. The adverse July weather, coupled with late spring planting and slow
maturation of the crop in most areas, has hampered harvesting operations. By the
first week of August, only 21% of the total crop area had been threshed, compared
with 30% in 1973 and an average -)f 36% during 1970-72 (see Table 2).
USSR: Progress in Harvesting Grain Cropsl
1970-72 Annual Average
1973
Cumulative
Area
Threshed
(Thousand
Hectares)
Cumulative
Proportion
Threshed
(Percent)
Cumulative
Area
Threshed
(Thousand
Hectares)
Cumulative
Proportion
Threshed
(Percent)
Cumulative
Area
Threshed
(Thousand
Hectares)
Cumulative
Proportion
Threshed
(Percent)
Total
Before
113,200
100.0
118,000
100.0
120,000
100.0
10 July
4,262
3.8
3,682
3.1
2,500
2.1
16 July
10,597
9.4
8,170
6.9
4,682
3.9
23 July
19,917
17.6
15,607
13.2
8,996
7.5
30 July
29,430
26.0
23,500
19.9
15,500
12.9
6 August
40,474
35.8
35,800
30.3
25,500
21.2
13 August
50,314
44.4
47,850
40.6
1. Including till pulses and grain, except corn, grown on state and collective farms. Excluding grain area sown on
small plots by individuals and area sown on subsidiary farming enterprises operated by non-agricultural firms and
organizations.
15. In European USSR, the lodging of grain, together with the slow and
uneven maturation of the crop, adds to the traditional problems of the authorities
in mobilizing manpower to cut, thresh, dry, and transport the crop. Above-normal
losses probably are being experienced because cut grain left in the fields to dry
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is not being threshed on schedule. According to one Soviet commentator, delays
in threshing of 5 days may cause losses in yield up to one centner per hectare.
If these conditions continue through the remainder of the harvest, grain output
may drop below the projected 198 mllion tons. The problem is particularly acute
with the wheat harvest. Even if the entire crop is harvested, wet and lodged wheat
will prove of inferior milling quality. Last year, when this problem also was
encountered, the size of the wheat harvest (110 million tons) assured enough
milling-quality grain to satisfy the demand for bread. This year, much less wheat
will be produced - perhaps only 85 million tons.
16. The drought-stricken areas in the New Lands present a different set of
harvest problems. Early ripening in these areas has caught harvesters somewhat
unprepared. Usually, men and machines move across the Soviet grain belt harvesting
as the crop ripens. This year, the combination of a late-ripening crop west of the
Urals and an early crop in the New Lands has complicated harvesting schedules
and may lead to large losses. Another harvesting problem in the drought area is
the condition of the crop; "the grain crop is undersized and difficult to gather,"
according to one Soviet report.
Grain Trade Prospects
17. The Soviets have kept out of the world grain market so far this year.
About 1 million tons of grain (primarily wheat and corn left over from the 1972
and 1973 contracts with the United States) remain to be delivered in FY 1975.
If the crop does not deteriorate substantially during the next month, the Soviets
probably will not purchase foreign grain in FY 1975. A harvest of 198 million
tons probably would cover minimum domestic requirements and export
commitments, and the regime can exercise its option of drawing down carryover
stocks. A question remains, however, on the milling quality of the carryover wheat.
Moscow may want to import wheat in spite of carryover stocks.
18. A second important factor in Soviet attitudes toward grain imports is
price. At present, grain prices on the world market are high and will remain high
if US harvest prospects fail to improve.
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