STATUS OF THE SOVIET GRAIN CROP AS OF THE END OF JUNE

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00875R001500190004-8
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: C
• Document Page Count: 13
• Document Creation Date: December 16, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 12, 2004
• Sequence Number: 4
• Publication Date: July 6, 1973
• Content Type: REPORT

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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
Office of Economic Research
Status of the Soviet Grain Crop
On file Department of Agriculture
release instructions apply.
25X1
ER IB 73-4
6 July 1973
". 3:%
Copy No.
ARCHIV?.c, RrkCORD 25X1
PLEA.'-12 ~rrNCL .ARCHIVE:i, 25X1 ARCRIVAI; RECORD
Appro sel ADENTIAL AGENCY AHC1UVLS,
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WARNING
This tloctttncnt contains information affecting the national
(Icfcnse of the United States, within the meaning of Title
18, suctions 793 and 794, of the US Code, as amended.
Its tr.mnsmission or revelation of its contents to or re-
ceipt by an unauthorized person is prohibited by law.
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STAT
MEMORANDUM FOR:
SUBJECT:
Agency Arc hives
Data contained in ER IB 73-4 is inaccurate. This IB has
been superseded by ER IB 73-8.
STAT
OER/St/P/C
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Status of the Soviet Grain Crop
as, of the End of June
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A record sowing of spring grains in the USSR
has more than offset last fall's shortfall in the
sowing of winter grains, raising the total grain
area in 1973 to its highest level since 1965.
So far the weather has been generally favorable
for the development of both winter and spring
grains. On the basis of sown area and the weather
through June, and with average weather in July, the
total gross grain harvest could amount to a record
194 million metric tons (157 million tons of usable
grain). The spring grains, however, will be in a
critical stage of development through July, so
estimates of total grain production still embody a
good deal of uncertainty. Hot, dry weather in July
could reduce the prospective crop appreciably,
while, on the other hand, timely rains would go far
toward ensuring a record harvest.
Even with a record harvest, the Soviets will
need as much as 15 million tons of grain imports
to cover domestic and foreign requirements. If
weather conditions turn out to be below average in
the next few months, they could be in the market
for even more grain in a year when world grain
prices are at record highs. So far this ;-ear they
have bought about 9 million tons, of which 7 million
tons was purchased in the United States.
Note: Comments and queries regarding this publi-
cation are welcomed. They may be directed to
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Discussion
Spring Sowing Campaign a Success
1. The USSR has completed a record sowing of
spring grains. The total seeded by all farms was
about 104 million hectares, 8 million hectares
more than the amount sown in 1972 and 14 million
more than the average sown in 1966-71 (see Table 1).
USSR: Area Planted to Grain1
Annual Average
1966-71
1972
1973
Total
121.4
120.1
128
Winter
grains
31.2
24.1
24
Spring
grains
90.2
96.0
104
Te sown areas reported or 1966-71 and
are from official post-harvest statistics. These
figures generally are about 1/% less than the area
announced in mid-summer, mainly because some of
the summer grain area is used for forage rather
than being harvested for grain.
2. Last fall, because of dry weather, only
about 28 million hectares of winter wheat, rye,
and barley were seeded -- 20% below the average
for the previous five years. With normal amount
of winterkill and some feeding of immature grain
to livestock, probably only about 24 million hec-
tares of winter grain will he harvested -- far
less than the average of 3 million hectares in
1966-71.* The successful caring sowing campaign,
however, more than compensates for the deficit in
winter grains. Indeed, the total area sown to
grain is the largest since 1965.
Winter grains generally account for about one-
fourth of total harvested grain acreage but about
one-third of total grain production. Spring grains
account for the rew inder.
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3. Spring sowing increased particularly in
the RSFSR, where the fall drought had most hindered
the sowing of winter grains (primarily winter wheat
and winter rye). As in 1972, the strategy was to
sow relatively more area to feedgrains (barley,
oats, and corn) than to the lower yielding spring
wheat. This policy, which is designed to provide
maximum support for Brezhnev's livestock program,
risks slighting domestic requirements for bread-
grains.
The Condition of the Crop
4. Plentiful rain in April and May and an
early spring revived the winter grains, which had
been threatened by a dry, cold winter. By 30 June
the accumulated precipitation in the winter grain
districts since last fall was greater than normal
and far larger than last year (see Table 2).
Nevertheless, the moisture conditions for the
winter grains were not as good as those that pre-
vailed in 1970 when the USSR harvested its best
crop.
5. US agricultural attaches, after traveling
through a representative portion of the Ukraine,
Moldavia, -Lhe North Caucasus, and the Central
Black Earth regions, have confirmed Soviet claims
that the ;inter grains are coming along well and
that few fields h,--.d to be reseeded because of
winterkill. As of late June, the only potential
problem for the winter grains was the damage
caused by the heavy rains in the Ukraine and North
Caucasus in late May. The Soviet press reports
that "in many areas cereal crops have been flat-
tened by rains, and great skill and ability will
be required from the machine operators to harvest
them without any wa--tage." On the other hand,
harvesting of winter grains has been completed in
Central Asia and southern Kazakhstan, where "excel-
lent" crops are said to have been gathered. Because
crop development is advanced this year, harvesting
of winter grains will begin 8-10 days earlier than
normal in the North Caucasus and the southern
Ukraine, and almost all of the USSR's winter grain
crop should be harvested by late July.
3
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Cumulative Precipitation in Winter and Spring Grain Areas1
Millimeters
Winter Grains
Spring Grains
Annual Average
Annual Average
1961-73
1970-71
1972
1973
1961-73
1970-71
1972
1973
October - March
248
303
208
248
207
261
197
217
April - June
140
161
139
170
123
149
134
144
Total
388
464
347
418
330
410
331
361
1. Average rainfall in each of 27 crop districts, weighted by the crop
district's share in production of winter or spring grains in 1966-70.
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6. Favorable weather as well as improved
organization also seems to have given the spring
grains a reasonable start. According to the
Soviet press, "the sowing campaign has been out-
standing for its high rates and good quality of
work. Nearly everywhere, the weather conditions
were favorable for the emergence of sturdy
seedlings." The generalization applies in the
main to the European USSR; in Kazakhstan and
Siberia the weather was frequently "capricious,"
and planting was delayed toward the end or some-
what beyond the optimum periods.
7. Rainfall was more than adequate in many of
the spring grain areas through the end of June.
Total rainfall in April, May, and June was larger
than in any of the last 13 years except for 1970,
the all-time record crop year. By 30 June the
total accumulated rainfall in the spring grain
regions since last September exceeded the average
of the last 13 years by 9%. Apparently, May rains
were so heavy in certain areas that they interfered
with planting. According to a Soviet "agricultural
expert," rain caused "extensive and possibly very
extensive damage" to corn in major growing areas,
where the corn had to be sown as many as three
times. Complaints have also been heard that the
weather is stimulating the growth of weeds.
8. The spring grains, however, are in a very
critical stage. They need adequate rainfall and
cool temperatures in June and July, but in the
first 20 days of June it was extremely hot and
drier than usual in much of the New Lands area of
the Urals, Siberia, and northern Kazakhstan. The
last 10 days of June brought some relief in the
form of above-normal precipitation and cooler
temperatures. Nevertheless, a return in July to
high temperatures (which speed up evaporation and
can shrivel grain in the heading to ripening stage)
and little rainfall could erode the USSR's present
expectation of a harvest substantially better than
the harvests of 1970 and 1971 (see Table 3). Last
year, Siberia and Kazakhstan (which usually produce
almost 30% of the total grain crop) had excellent
harvests, and a marked decline in production in
1973 in these regions would go far to offset the
expected recovery in yields in the Ukraine and the
European USSR.
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Table 3
USSR: Grain Production
Million Metric Tons
Gross
Production
Net 1
Production
Annual average 1961-65
130
106
Annual average 1966-69
163
131
1970
187
150
1971
181
148
1972
168
134
1973
Plan
197
160
Forecast2 194
157
Estimate of usable grain, which excludes ex-
cess moisture, wastage, and trash.
2. Assumes average rainfall and temperatures in
July.
Outlook for Production
9. On the basis of the sown arer., the weather
through June, and average July rainfall and tempera-
tures, the gross grain harvest could be about 194
million tons, or 157 million tons of usable grain.*
This would be a record crop, although somewhat less
than the 1973 goal of 197 million gross tons.
10. The harvest of winter grains has already
started, and all of the early reports speak of good
to excellent yields -- a confirmation of the high
production forecast for the North Caucasus and
southern Ukraine. In the spring grains area, how-
ever, the July ,'eather will determine the size of
the standing harvest, while the conditions in
August and September will decide whether the grain
will ripen in time to be threshed before winter
sets in. The dependence on July conditions can be
illustrated by estimating average July rainfall
and temperatures for each crop district from official
* - The estimates are derived from weather-yield
regressions for all grains in 27 crop districts
covering the years 1961-71 (see the Appendix).
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Soviet long-range weather forecasts. The above-
normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation
predicted in these forecasts, when incorporated in
the estimates of yields, reduce the total expected
grain harvest from 194 million to 174 million
gross tons.
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Grain Imports
11. Even if a record crop of 194 million tons
is harvested, the USSR will still need substantial
grain imports to meet domestic and export require-
ments in fiscal year (FY) 1974, perhaps as much as
15 million tons.
12. During March and April the USSR chartered
enough world shipping to carry 10 million tons of
grain annually from North American ports to the
Black Sca in addition to the 9 million to 10 mil-
lion tons available from its own fleet. So far
this year, new Soviet grain purchases have amounted
to about 9 million tons for delivery by the end of
FY 1974. Of this, some 7 million tons will come
from the United States, and more than one-half
of the total will be wheat. Some of these purchases
are slated for delivery this summer and fall and,
therefore, should probably be viewed as covering
shortfalls in the 1972 crop. Thus, more than
6 million tons must still be purchased to cover
estimated requirements for FY 1974.
13. It appears that the USSR has not contracted
for much grain recently, probably a result of
several factors. World grain prices are at record
highs, and the US grain export controls introduce
an additional uncertainty. Moreover, the USSR
will probably wait and see what the July weather
will be. If July is hot and dry, significantly re-
ducing crop prospects, it will need even larger
imports than originally anticipated.
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APPENDIX
Derivation of Harvest Prediction for 1973
The predicted grain harvest for 1973 is based
on a linear regression model which estimates the
influence of weather and a time trend on grain
yields in each of 27 crop regions in the period
1961-71 and uses the results to forecast a yield
for each region in 1973. The weather variables
used in this analysis include cumulative precipi-
tation from September through March and monthly
precipitation and average monthly temperatures
from April through July.* For those regions in
which no statistically significant relationship
between time and grain yields can be determined,
the model considers only the influence of the
weather variables in forecasting yields for 1973.
For six additional regions, forecast yields are
derived from time trends alone because weather
data are not available for these regions.
The forecast yields for all 33 regions are
then multiplied by estimates of the 1973 harvest
area to obtain the predicted harvest of 194 million
gross tons of grain. Because the model does not
account for all the variation in yields (e.g.,
weather in August-September as well as variations
resulting from changes in fertilizer usage and
sowing and harvesting techniques, etc.), there is
still a good deal of uncertainty in the forecast
of total production. C,z the basis of the. standard
error of the aggregate forecast, there is one
chance out of three that the total grain crop will
be either less than 187 or more than 200 million
gross tons.
* Temperature and precipitation data for July
1973 were estimated as the average for July in the
period 1961-72.
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Major Grain Growing Regions in the USSR
Economic Region
Boundary
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