ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00875R001500150048-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 21
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: May 14, 2010
• Sequence Number: 48
• Publication Date: November 6, 1974
• Content Type: REPORT

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Economic Intelligence Weekly
Secret
CIA No. 8227/74
6 November 1974
Copy N2 203
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ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY
INDUSTRIAL NATIONS
6 November 1974
1,Vestern Europe: Foreign Workers Under Fire; Rising
unemployment is generating pressure for the reduction of
foreign workers, see page 3.)
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DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
Iran: Oil Revenues, Balance of Payments, and Investment
Flows in 1974; By yearend the Shah will have a
comfortable $9 billion cushion for increased lending and
investment, see page 7.)
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INTERNATIONAL MARKETS
European Interest Rates Sag; The drop in Eurocurrency
interest rates is attributable to the widespread economic
slowdown, the relaxation of US monetary policy, and the
continuing influx of oil money. see page 6.)
The Dollar continued to decline against major European
currencies last week while strengthening slightly relative
to the yen. The continuing decline in dollar interest rates
and growing prospects for a US coal strike were major
factors in the strength of the European currencies, which
gained up to 0.8% against the dollar in the week ending
Secret
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Monday. Gold was fixed at $173.75 an ounce in London
yesterday afternoon 25X1
A Spate of International Meetings by copper, tin, iron ore,
and bauxite producing nations are under way this week.
Measures to bolster metals prices are of paramount
concern to the LDCs. Copper-exporting nations are
considering ways to raise prices, especially since large
Japanese surpluses are now expected to continue into
1975. Members of the International Tin Council are
discussing higher support prices for future buffer stock
purchases. Iron ore producers may agree on establishing a
formal organization but little progress on raising prices is
expected. see Metals Price Chart, page A-3.)
World Bauxite: Export Taxes on Rise; Other Caribbean
exporters are expected to follow Jamaica's lead in
boosting export taxes.
see page 9.)
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Venezuela: Iron Ore Prices to Rise; US mills will have to
pay substantially higher prices after Caracas nationalizes
iron ore properties. see page 11.)
AGRICULTURE
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Spot Prices for Wheat increased 50 cents a bushel in
October, reaching $5.08 a bushel on 4 November. Corn
and soybean prices are hovering bel -mr the 1974 highs
reached in early October. Cotton prices continue on a
downward path. see Agricultural Price
Chart, page A-4.1
Sugar Prices Continue to Soar; Rumors of a 400,000-ton
soviet purchase has sent world prices soaring to 50.5 cents
per pound f.o.b. Caribbean ports. see page
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Japan: Stance at World Food Conference; Tokyo will
prefer to sit back and await a compromise on the
controversial issue of food stocks.
-see page 12.)
COMMUNIST COUNTRIES
COMPARATIVE INDICATORS
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Recent Data Concerning Internal Economic Activity (See
page A-1.)
Recent Data Concerning External Economic Activity (See
page A-2.)
Soviets Short of Rooms for 1980 Olympics; Moscow, Metal Prices (See page A-3.)
which now has 20,000 tourist beds in its hotels, will be
hosting 300,000 to 400,000 visitors. ee Agrkultural Prices (See page A-4.)
page 12.1
PUBLICATION OF INTEREST
Romania: The Economy Since 1970 (See page 131
II
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WESTERN EUROPE: FOREIGN WORKERS UNDER FIRE
Rising unemployment is strengthening anti-foreign sentiment and generating
pressure to reduce the number of foreign workers in the northern countries of
Western Europe. Several governments hope that the 8 million to 10 million foreign
workers will bear the brunt of their anti-inflation measures. Labor-supplying
countries fear that thousands of migrant workers will be forced home, aggravating
their unemployment and balance-of-payments difficulties.
Pressures in Western Europe
Declining industrial production in Western Europe has led to widespread
layoffs and expectations of large-scale unemployment this winter. The slowdown
is particularly acute in several industries with a high concentration of foreign
workers, such as construction, automobile manufacture, and tourism.
In West Germany ? by far the largest employer of foreign labor in Western
Europe ? the unemployment rate for foreign workers was 2.6% in September,
compared with 0.6% a year ago. In contrast, unemployment among the domestic
work force was only 2.3%, compared with 0.9% in September 1973. Recently
publicized forecasts of a 4.3% unemployment rate this winter has heightened West
German concern.
To protect domestic workers:
? West Germany and France have banned the recruitment of foreign labor
from outside the EC and have stiffened penalties on the smuggling of
foreign workers. Bonn is considering a special tax on companies
employing foreigners.
? Switzerland has reduced the number of work permits and has eliminated
exemptions granted for foreign workers in hospitals and schools and on
farms, despite its exceptionally low unemployment rate.
? The Netherlands has put a ceiling on the immigration of foreign workers
and the number of foreigners a firm may hire. The government also is
considering offering "farewell bonuses" to foreigners who voluntarily
return home.
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The Importance of Foreign Workers to Labor Exporting Countries
6%
3%
24%
5%
40%
Foreign workers as a percent
of total labor force
Remittances as a percent
of total current account receipts
8%
11%
27%
??????1?1111MIT
9%
ITALY YUGOSLAVIA TURKEY SPAIN PORTUGAL GREECE
564553 11-74
Effects on Labor-Supplying Countries
Worker remittances constitute almost half of Turkey's current account receipts
and are a primary source of foreign exchange earnings for Portugal, Yugoslavia,
and Greece. Yugoslavia and Greece already are running current account deficits.
A sharp drop in worker remittances could push the current accounts of both Turkey
and Portugal into the red. As a member of the EC, Italy will be partially protected
from cutbacks in the use of foreign labor. Nonetheless, even a moderate drop in
immigrant remittances will rock its already shaky financial position.
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Unemployment in Selected Countries
(Percent of total labor force, seasonally adjusted)
3.0
?6.16
Annual Average Jan 1974
1972.1973
Aug 1974
NETHERLANDS
3.8
Annual Average Jan 1974 Sep 1974
1972.1973
WEST GERMANY
2.0
77.79 1.0
p-x,57,71
4K. V,1
1.0
Annual Average Jan 1974
1972, 973
SPAIN
Annual Average Jan 1974
1972.1973
TURKEY
Oct 1974
Annual Average Jan 1974
1972.1913
FRANCE
1.0 1.0
PRI gal
Sep 1974
2.0
Jun 1974 Annual Average Jan 1974 Ocl 1974
1972.1973
'Not seasonally adjusted.
564554 11-74
9.0
9.0
Annual Average Jan 1974 Aug 1974
1972.1 9 73
YUGOSLAVIA*
Annual Average Jan 1974 Jun 1974
1972.1 9 7 3
ITALY
0.6 0.6 0.7
7.74 GPM PM
Annual Average Jan 1974 May 1974
1 972.1 9 7 3
PORTUGAL GREECE*
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JOGIVI
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Yugoslavia and Portugal would be badly hurt by cutbacks because they have
exported so large a share of their labor. Even without a return of migrant workers,
reouced demand and political uncertainties are leading to higher unemployment
in Portugal, Spain, and Greece. Unemployment already is severe in Turkey (11%)
and Yugoslavia (9%).
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EUROPEAN INTEREST RATES SAG
Short-term interest rates for most Eurocurrencies have dropped in recent weeks
because of the widespread economic slowdown, the relaxation of US monetary
policy, and the continuing influx of oil money. Even though the reduction in
Eurocurrency rates is easing the downward pressure on the dollar, its value continues
to fall.
The Eurodollar rate has led the decline, slipping from 14% to 10% as short-term
US rates have moderated. Growth of bank loans has slowed in most European
countries; economic slack has reduced the demand for loans, and the larger
Eurocurrency banks have become more selective in extending credit. The short-term
deposits of oil exporters now exceed the demand for loans by customers deemed
creditworthy. Eurocurrency rates for three-month deposits of sterling, French and
Swiss francs, and guilders have declined 1 to 3.5 percentage points since August.
These rates now range from 15% to 9%.
Short-term rates already have dropped within the Netherlands. West German
rates may soon follow suit, since the central bank cut some short-term rates by
one-half of a percentage point late last month.
Central banks probably are to:?rating or even seeking an easing of European
short-term interest rates to keep their currencies from becoming overly attractive
to the dollar. The aim of maintaining competitive trade positions thus is
conflicting with anti-inflation goals. At their last meeting in Basel, European central
bankers indicated they wished to continue their tight monetary policies. But if
dollar rates continue to decline, they probably will permit further reductions in
other rates to limit the upward pressure on their own currencies
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Percent Per Annum
Interest Rates for Three-Month Deposits
of Selected Eurocurrencies
20 ? ?
18
16
14
12
10
French Franc
US Dollar
Nether/ands
G oi/dei?
__I I
8 7 14 21 28 4 11 18 25 2 9 16 23 30 4
Aug Sep Oct
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IRAN: OIL REVENUES, BALANCE OF PAYMENTS,
AND INVESTMENT FLOWS IN 1974
Nov
Gigantic oil receipts in 1974 will give the Shah a $9 billion cushion in foreign
reserves. Iran's foreign payments surplus this year will total $8 billion, despite
substantially increased imports and investment outflows. The bulk of Iran's
skyrocketing reserves are held in dollars.
The escalation of oil receipts during the second half of 1974 reflects the
two-month lag in payments by the companies and the bundling of retroactive
payments agreed to at midyear.
Despite the ballooning of exports in the second half, increases in imports
and capital outflows will result in roughly equal payments surpluses for the two
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Iran: Estimated Oil Receipts, 1973-74
Billion US $
1974
Total
1st
2d
3d
4th
1973
Qtr
Qtr
Qtr
Qtr
Total
Total
3.3
2.3
4.1
5.5
5.4
17.3
Receipts, excluding retro-
active payments
3.3
2.3
3.9
4.9
4.8
15.9
Retroactive payments
0.2
0.6
0.6
1.4
Iran: Balance of Payments, 1974
Million US $
Estimated
1st Half
Projected
2c1, Half
Projected
Year
Export receipts
6,935
11,420
18,355
Oil
6,415
10,900
17,315
Non-oil
520
520
1,040
Import payments (f.o.b.)
3,620
4,030
7,650
Trade balance
3,315
7,390
10,705
Net services
-235
-300
-535
Current account balance
3,080
7,090
10,170
Capital account (net)
900
-2,900
-2,000
Balance of payments and inc:ease in reserves
3,980
4,190
8,170
halves of 1974. Through June, imports of industrial and military goods increased
markedly, whereas capital outflows under the Shah's foreign lending and investment
program were just getting under way.
During the second half, imports are slowing because of increased port
congestion and other transportation bottlenecks while capital outflows are picking
up momentum. Iran is prepaying about $1.5 billion of its high-interest debt. It
is also laying out an estimated $2 billion in credits, investments, and advanced
payments for industrial installations, as follows:
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Million US $
Pakistan
250
India
140
IMF
700
IBRD
275
United Kingdom
400
France
300
Iran has just begun to develop the institutions and expertise for its newfound
role as major lender and investor. In August, it established a subministry for
investment and foreign aid within the Ministry of Economics and Finance. The
Shah will continue t ? determine how and where Iran's money will go
WORLD BAUXITE: EXPORT TAXES ON RISE
Other Caribbean exporters are expected to follow Jamaica's lead in boosting
bauxite export taxes. Pressure for higher taxes is being intensified at the meeting
this week of the International Bauxite Association in Georgetown, Guyana. Early
action by non-Caribbean exporters such as Australia and Guinea seems unlikely.
Attendance at Meeting
Charter Members Applicants for Membership Observers
Australia Dominican Republic Indonesia
Guinea Ghana Malaysia
Guyana Haiti
Jamaica
Sierra Leone
Surinam
Yugoslavia
Jamaica increased the export tax by 500%, to about $12 per ton, and linked
future increases to US aluminum prices. The other Caribbean exporters --
accounting for 30% of US bauxite and alumina supplies -- have already taken steps
to boost levies.
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? Guyana imposed a tax on metal grade bauxite in September against the
small Reynolds operation, retroactive to 1 January; the company refusal
to pay has set the stage for long-expected nationalization of its Guyana
properties.
? The Dominican Republic has rejected an Alcoa offer to double tax and
royalty payments and is threatening the company with more stringent
tax legislation.
? Haiti is demanding a tax increase in negotiations with Reynolds scheduled
to resume 11 November.
? Surinam has notified Alcoa that it wishes to begin negotiations; company
officials expect the government to demand a tax hike similar to the
Jamaican increase.
Except for Guyana, these countries have moved cautiously in the face of strong
resistance by the aluminum companies. As marginal bauxite suppliers, they are
vulnerable to company threats to close down operations ? now given increased
credibility by the response of Reynolds to Guyanese demands. Company leverage,
on the other hand, has been weakened by the tightness of world bauxite supplies,
the long lead times required to expand alternative supplies, and an unpromising
investment climate elsewhere. Reynolds, for example, has deferred action on a large
Australian project mainly because of government demands for a 51% equity share.
United States: Source of Bauxite
and Alumina Suppliesi
1973
Origin
Percent
Total
100.0
Domestic
8.7
Jamaica
39.2
Australia
20.6
Surinam
16.7
Guyana
6.7
Dominican Republic
4.5
Haiti
1.4
Other
2.2
1. Metal content. Including imports of the US Virgin Islands.
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Meanwhile, Jamaica has opened the second phase of' negotiations with two
of its six foreign aluminum companies. Kingston is demanding 51% equity
participation in the subsidiaries, a sharp increase in the share of bauxite refined
into alumina locally, and reversion of bauxite reserves. The government appears
willing to ease its previous tax measures in exchange for company concessions on
the new demands.
Producing countries outside the Caribbean will move more slowly. Although
Australia wants increased bauxite revenues, the Whitlam government is being pressed
by rising unemployment to ease restrictions on direct foreign investment. In Guinea,
exports to the United States from large newly deve1oped deposits are only now
getting under way, and additional foreign capital is needed to complete projects.
-x- -x-
VENEZUELA: IRON ORE PRICES TO RISE
US mills will have to pay substantially higher prices for Venezuelan iron ore
after Caracas nationalizes the industry in December.
The government has told US Steel's local subsidiary that after nationalization
it will renegotiate prices on contract exports to Western Europe, about 40% of
the total ? a move that will bring higher prices. It also will seek higher prices
for shipments to the United States, which constitute 11% of total US supplies.
Prices for Venezuelan ore in recent months have been running about 20% below
the average for other US ore imports.
Venezuela is in a strong position to demand higher prices since it is not
concerned about export volume. In view of its large oil revenues, Caracas can afford
to conserve its iron ore reserves for use by its own steel industry, which is expected
to absorb all domestic production by 1985. Caracas also is aware that US Steel,
which now absorbs or resells 85% of iron ore exports, needs access to Venezuelan
ore for five to seven more years.
The new prices will be set with an eye toward avoiding short-term
unemployment and ?tinr disruptions in the transition to government ownership.
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Notes
Japan: Stance at World Food Conference
Japanese delegates will maintain low profile at the World Food Conference.
While agreeing that developed nations must help increase food output in the LDCs
and continue food aid, Tokyo wants to avoid specific targets in the final resolutions.
It prefers to sit back and await a compromise on the issue of food stocks. The
Japanese are willing to establish larger reserves either in Japan or in the United
States to meet their own requirements but oppose arrangements that would earmark
any portion for aid to other countries. Although Tokyo favors using stocks to
help stabilize prices, it will not openly oppose US proposals that stress availability
of supply. Japan's only initiative has been to propose a food information system
aimed at preventing repetition of unexpected grain purchases by the USSR and
China, which jeopardize Japanese access to supplies.
Soviets Short of Rooms for 1980 Olympics
The Soviets face the mind-boggling task of accommodating 300,000-400,000
visitors to the summer Olympic Games in 1980. Embassy Moscow reports that
the head of Intourist, S.S. Nikitin, is in the early stages of panic. Moscow now
has roughly 20,000 tourist beds in hotels, and they are already so crowded that
lntourist must rent 6,400 residential apartments. Prior to the selection of the USSR
as host for the Olympic Games, Moscow had plans for 45 new hotels, with a
total of 20,000 beds, to be corn leted b
would have to be revised.
: I
Sugar Prices Continue to Soar
itin admitted that this plan
Rumors of a 400,000-ton Soviet purchase from the Philippines in the face
of ever tightening world supplies has sent world sugar prices soaring 33% in the
last three weeks to 50.5 cents per pound f.o.b. Caribbean ports. Adverse weather
has already hurt production in the European Community and Eastern Europe and
apparently is now threatening damage to the Soviet crop. The poor outlook is
forcing the EC and the Communist countries to turn to the world market because
the availability of additional supplies from preferential Caribbean sources is limited
by prior commitments to other customers.
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STAT
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Publication of Interest*
Romania: The Economy Since 1970 STAT
(ER RP 74-23, November 1974,
Romania boasts a 9% economic growth rate, thanks to tight central control,
accelerated imports from the West, and self-sufficiency in energy and foodgrains.
At the same time, Romania remains one of the poorest natirqs in Eastern EuropL.
Industrial output has grown rapidly -- with emphasis on machine building and
chemicals. Agriculture has slowly expanded, output being held down by poor
weathef in 1973 and 1974. Romania has become the first Warsaw Pact nation
to conduct more than one-half of its trade with non-Communist countries.
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INTERNAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS
GNP
Const ;?91 Market Prices
Percent Change
WHOLESAtE PRICES
Average Animal
Industrial
Growth Rate Since
Percent Change
Average Annual
Growth Rale Since
Idlest horn Previous I Year Previous latest hum Previous I Year 3 Months
(barter Quarter 19/0 father Quarter Month Month 19711 Earlier a r her
United States
74 III
-0.7
3.2
-2.3
-2.9 United States
Sap 74
0.8
9.8
27.9
26.5
Japan
7411
0.6
5.7
-3,3
2.4 Japan
Sep 74
0.1
11.1
303
9.5
West Germany
74 II
- 6.7
3.1
1,1
- 2.9 West Germany
Sop 74
0.3
0.9
14.7
7.3
France
73 IV
1.7
-10
0.0
7.0 France
Sep 74
-1.0
11.8
27.9
-7.1
United Kingdom
74 I
-3.5
1.9
-4.4
-13.3 United Kingdom
Sop 74
1.5
11.5
25.7
1 9 .9
Italy
73 IV
1.9
3.7
5.3
7.7 Italy
Jul 74
2.5
16.3
47.1
24.2
Canada
74 II
0
5.7
4.9
0 Canada
Jul 74
2.0
11.2
24.6
12.2
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION' CONSUMER PRiCES
Average Annual Average Annual
Growth Rate Since
Growth Rale Since
Percen1 Change
PeRent Change
1,11USI Prom Previous 1 Year 3 Months Latest horn PrIvious 1 Year 3 Months
Month Month 1970 Earlier Earlier*. Month Month 1970 Earlier Earlier
United States
Sop 74
01
4.0
-1.0
-0.2 United States
Sep 74
1.1
6.6
12.1
13.7
Japan
Sop 74
0.2
5.2
-6.9
-13.5 Japan
Sop 74
1.6
11.7
23.8
19.1
West Germany
Aug 74
0
2.5
-3.8
-7.9 West 5ermany
Sop 74
0.3
0.1
7.3
2.9
France
Aug 74
0
6.2
4.1
12.4 France
Sep 74
1.1
8.3
14.7
13.3
United Kingdom
Aug 74
1.2
2.9
1.2
7.5 United Kingdom
Sop 74
1.7
10.4
17.1
8.7
Italy
Aug 74
-4.8
3.6
-0.6
0 Italy
Aug 74
2.1
10.3
20.5
28.9
Canada
RETAIL SALES*
Aug 74
0.4
5.0
5.3
-3.6 Canada
MONEY SUPPLY?
Sep 74
0.E,
6.7
10.9
9.7
Current Prices
Average Annual
Growth Rate Since
Average Annual
Growth Rate Since
Percent Change
Per Lent Change
Latest from Previous 1 Year 3 Months Latest heel Previous 1 Year 3 Months
Month Month 19711 Earlier Earlier Month Month 1970 Earlier Earlier "
United States
Sep 74
-1.2
9.7
8.6
17.8 United States
Sep 74
0.1
5.8
5.8
2.2
Japan
May 74
4.7
13.0
15.9
-1.7 Japan
Jun 74
1.6
17,9
15.7
17.6
Wqst Germany
Jun 74
? 1.5
7.7
2.0
1.5 West Germany
Aug 74
0.8
9.1
9.6
10.9
France
MbY 74
6.2
8.5
18.1
1.3 France
Jun 74
1.3
12.7
10.7
15.6
United Kingdom
Jun 74
3.3
11.9
14.7
8.3 United Kingdom
Sep 74
-0.4
8.5
2.4
5.1
Italy
Apr 74
0.9
17.4
27.0
34.0 Italy
Jan 74
0.1
20.7
22.7
22.5
Canada
Aug 74
2.7
12.9
19.4
24.9 Canada
Sop 74
-0.7
11.8
6.6
-6.1
MONEY-MARKET RATES
Percent Rate oh Interest
1 Year 3 Months 1 Month
Representative Rates Latest Date Earlier Earlier Earlier
United States
Dealer-placed finance paper
Oct 23
9.38
7.75
11.45
10.93
Japan
Call money
Oct 9
12.50
8.75
12.90
13.00
West Germany
Interbank loans (3Monihs)
Oct 23
9.70
14.31
9.20
9.46
France
United Kingdom
Call money
Sterling interbank loan (3 ma)
Oct 9
Oct 23
13.13
11.49
11.13
-1 2.63
14.00
13.39
13.75
*Seasonally adjusted.
11.71, **Average for latest 3 months compered
Canada
Finance paper
Oct 23
10.85
8.97
11.53
11.19 with average for previous 3 months.
Euro-Dollars
Three-month deposits
Oct 23
10.65
9.58
13.31
11.60
6 November 1974
Office of Economic Research/CIA Note: US data provided bylklgovernment agencies
Al
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EXPORTS*
fat
EXTERNAL
talent Month
ECONOMIC INDICATORS
EXPORT PRICES
Emu:alive usS
Percent Change
Million US $ hieing Latest hour Naomi%
Million US $ 1974 1973 Change Month Month
United States
Sep 74
8,280
71,675
50,428
41.9 United States
Sop 74
0.7
Japan
Sop 74
4,494
38,859
25,796
50.6 Japan
Sep 74
0,5
West Germany
Sop 74
7,247
65,851
48,743
35.1 West Germany
Aug 74
-0.6
France
Sep 74
4,015
34,313
26,057
28.7 France
Jun 74
1.5
United Kingdom
Sep 74
3,295
26,098
21,148
26.2 United Kingdom
Jul 74
Italy
Aug 74
2,404
19,020
13,533
40.6 Italy
May 74
1,9
Canada
Aug 74
2,871
21,021
16,329
28.7 Canada
May 74
1.4
IMPORTS" EXPORT PRICES
Lob.
Latost Moth
C ii trio (alive
Million US $ Percent
1974 19/3 Change
Million US $
United States
Srp 74
8,520
73,922
50,491
48.4
Japan
Sep 74
4,079
39,474
22,737
73.6
West Germany
Sep 74
5,433
47,852
37,050
29.2
France
Sep 74
4,229
37,388
25,306
46.0
United Kingdom
Sep 74
4,174
35,643
24,341
46.4
Italy
Aug 74
3,173
24,337
15,140
60.7
Canada
I Aug 74
2,860
20,590
14,884
38.3
TRADE BALANCE"
Latest Month Cumulative (Million US $)
Million USS 1974 1973
utie4
United States
Sep 74
-233 1 -2,347
-63
Japan
Sop 74
415 I -616
3,059
-3,674
West Germany
Sep 74
1,814 I
17,959
11,692
6,306
France
Sep 74
-214
-3,073
1,051
-4,125
United Kingdom
Sep 74
-879
-8,945
-3,193
-5,752
Italy
Aug 74
-7011
-5,311
-1.607
-3,704
Canada
Aug 74
11
432
1,445
-1.014
BASIC BALANCE"
Current and Long?Term-Capital Transactions
Latest Period
Cu u e (Million US SI
Million US S 1974 1973 Change
United States?
74 It
-2,740
-954
-2,164
1,210
Japan
Sep 74
211
-9.048
-6,674
-2,374
West Germany
Aug 74
-424
4,558
5,817
-1,259
France
73 IV
-475
NA.
-2,472
NA.
United Kingdom
74 t
84
84
-1.033
1,117
Italy
74 I
- 2,037
-2,037
975
-3,012
Canada
74 II
-445
-613
-6
-608
OFFICIAL RESERVES
Billion US $
Latest Month
1 Year 3 Months
End at Billion US S Jun 1970 Earlier Earlier
United States
Sep 74
15.9
14.5
12.9
14.9
Japan
Oct 74
13.5
4.1
14.0
131
West Germany
sop 74
32.8
8.8
35.3
34.2
France
Sep 74
8.6
4.4
11.2
8.2
United Kingdom
Sep 74
7.2
2.8
8.4
6.7
Italy
Jun 74
5.3
4.7
6.0
6.7
Canada
Sep 74
5.9
4.3
5.7
6.1
*Slasonally adjusted.
boverted Into US dollars at current market rates of exchange.
3 November 1974 A 2
National Currency
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
IMPORT PRICES
National Currency
Avotogu Annual
Lit 11,01 Hato Since
_
I Neat 3 Months
19711 Eat liar Earlier
12.0
29.9
30.7
15,9
23.8
-1.3
14.8
13.4
-3.3
14.7
11.5
33.5
13.5
25.4
30.4
13.6
30.8
74.7
14.7
43.2
55.2
Average Annual
Growth Hale Since
l'ocent Change
Latest front Previous I Yu,. 3 Months
Month Month 1970 Earlier Earlier
Sop 74 0.7 12.8 29.9 30.7
Sep 74 -0.4 11.0 39.7 23.6
Aug 74 2.0 5.8 22.6 24.8
Jun 74 3.3 11.1 28.5 42.5
Jul 74 1.0 13.8 33.3 29.6
May 74 1.3 13.9 40.2 52.3
May 74 0.7 12.2 37.3 44.7
Average Annual
Growth nate Since
P Rent Chant
Latest I our Newlin
Month Month
e
I Y ic
1970 Earii?I'li 3 Mult
Ct Earlier
United States
Sep 74
-0,2
19.4
54.3
22.0
Japan
Sep 74
-0.5
16.8
75.6
4.3
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Aug 74
Jun
Juluuln 7i 44
3.1
0
D.4
157..65
21.3
6351..35
57.1
3237..0
17.9
Italy
May 74
01
25.5
85.5
45.3
Canada
May 74
4.7
11.0
30.4
62.8
EXCHANGE RATES Spot Rate
As di 1 Nov 74
Percent Change how
US S
18 Dec 19 Mar 25 Oct
Per Unit Dec 66 1971 1973 1974
Japan Vial
0.0933
20.62
2.49
-12.49
-0.06
West Germany (Deutsche
0.3888
54.65
25.30
9.80
0.03
France Pm.)
0.2140
5.99
8.68
- 2.90
0.61
United Kingdom sniiiciiio
2.3370
-16.25
-10.31
-5.04
0.17
Italy Ora)
0.0015
-6.25
-12./3
-15.20
0
Canada loom
1.0158
10.13
1.80
1.81
-0.10
TRADE-WEIGHTED EXCHANGE RATES".
As of Nu 14
Percent Change horn
18 Dec 19 Mar 25 Oct
Dec 66 1971 1973 1974
United States
-14,47
-5.19
1.40
0.00
Japan
12.29
-1.22
-13.03
-0.06
West Germany
31.00
14.00
8.96
-0.11
France
-16.03
-2.68
-5.15
0.58
United Kingdom
-35.38
-21.13
-6.70
0.08
Italy
-28.59
-27.23
-20.27
-0.14
Canada
7.65
1.06
2.70
-0.12
***Weighting is based on each listed country's trade with 18 other industrialized
countries to reflect the competitive impact of exchange-rate variations
among As major currencies.
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METAL PRICES
(Monthly Average Price)
140
120
c ^ 100
a.
a.
80
COPPER
(Wire bar)
L- ondon Metal
Exchange*
(LME)
60-
40
Jul
1972
500
TIN
Oct
73
74
450 -
400 -
350
a.
0.300
4.>
250
200
exrkk,10,
150Jul I
1972 73
504545 10.74
C Per Pound
5
150
125
65.0
? 100
a)
33314 0
0.43 75
LME*
Oc
74
COMMODITIES
V>
50
STEEL SCRAP
us tt
25 _L i Oct
Jul
1972 73
74
2
.0
0 Per Pound
250
225
8 200
2
V>
175
150
a
125O' l_ 1 Oct
?
Jul
1972 73
Major
Producer Price
74
Cash Prices
Sep 74 Oct 73
4 Nov 28 Oct Average Average
65.7 94.1
82.3 59.5
24.3 21.5
Copper-LME (C per pound)
63.9
63.2
Copper-US (0 per pound)
75.6
75.6
Lead-LME (o per pound)
24.7
24.2
Lead-US (C per pound)
24.5
24.5
Zinc-LME (0 per pound)
36.8
36.5
Zitic-LIS (0 per pound)
38.0
38.0
Tin-LME (0 per pound)
331.7
329.2
Tin-US (0 per pound)
366.2
361.0
Steel scrap ($ per long ton)
N.A.
119.7
PlatInum,US dealer ($ per troy ounce)
184.0
188.0
Platinum-US producer (Spar troy ounce)
190.0
190.0
24.5 16.5
41.0 53.0
37.4 20.4
414.7 245.0
416.0 245.9
114.4 67.4
171.6 167.6
190.0 158.0
*Approximates world market price frequently used by major world producers and trader,,
although only small quantities of these metals are actually traded on the LME.
**Producers price, covers most primary metals sold in the United States.
Quoted on New York market. ft Composite price for Chicago, Philadelphia, and Pittsburgh.
A-3
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0
83.1
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AGRICULTURAL PRICES
(Monthly Average Price)
S Per Bushel
6
5
4
3
2
1
J
1972
WHEAT
4.96
.
1 d
l?r"
Oct
?
40
30
-o
20
a.
10
73
74
0 I
Jul
1972 73
Oct
?
15
10
$ Per Bushel
5
SOYBEANS
8.36
0 Oct
e_.
Jul
1972 73 74
0.9
0.6
-o
co
7., o
a_ -.11 200
o
Zr) o
F-
0. o)
co .-
COTTON
$ Per Bushel
1
OJ 1_J
1972 73
300
250
0.3
Jul
74 1972 73
74
150
100
Jul
1972 73
Oct
?
74
309
FOOD INDEX* 1.1
/
1
I
Oct
74
* This is a compiled index by the Economist
for 16 food commodities which enter international
trade. Commodities are weighted by 3-year moving
averages of imports Into Industrialized countries.
COMMODITIES
Cash Prices
4 NoV
28 Oct
Sep 74
Average
Oct 73
A ?erage
Wheat?Kansas City #2 Hard Winter ($ per bushel)
5.08
5.01
4.38
4.72
Corn?Chicago #2 Yellow ($ per bushel)
3.61
3.54
3.56
2.37
Soybeans?Chicago #1 Yellow ($ per bushel)
8.15
7.30
7.59
5.62
Sugar?World Raw New York #11 (0 per pound)
50.50
43.00
34.40
9.60
Cotton?Memphis 1Y,W ( $ per pound)
0.4460
0.4290
C.4900
0.7560
564644 10.74
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