ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00875R001500150040-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 16
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 29, 2009
• Sequence Number: 40
• Publication Date: September 11, 1974
• Content Type: REPORT

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Secret
Economic Intelligence Weekly
Secret
CIA No. 8219/74
11 September 1974
Copy N2 394
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ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY
11 September 1974
machinery.
Leaders of the Nine European Community Nations will
meet informally in Paris Saturday in response to French
President Giscard's invitation. The meeting, which
probably is an outgrowth of recent talks between
Giscard and West German Chancellor Schmidt, is likely
to focus on inflation and payments problems. France's
partners probably will probe for elaboration of Giscard's
repeated reference to revival of the European movement,
and both Giscard and Schmidt may put forward
suggestions for streamlining EC administrative
Canada: Dissenting Views on Development Strategy;
Critics contend that the government should stress
increases in the production of raw materials and food-
stuffs rather than focus on the development of manu-
facturing.F______1(See page 5.)
Eurodif Breaks Ground; Work has started on the $2.5
billion uranium enrichment complex at Tricastin in
southern France. (See page 8.)
$3 for the week.
The Major Foreign Currencies halted their slide against
the dollar and closed the week trading within a fraction
of a percent of last Monday's rates. Gold was fixed at
$155.50 an ounce in London Monday afternoon, down
World Copper Prices Hit 1974 Low; Copper prices on
the London Metal Exchange have fallen to a 1974 low of
65.7 cents a pound, the result of sluggish demand, rising
output, and higher stocks. F----](See page 2.)
25X1
Tin Prices on the London Metal Exchange also re-
sponded to market pessimism generated by weakening
demand, falling to $3.98 a pound on Monday; this ends
a two-week climb that reached a 1974 peak of $4.45 last
week.
Canada's first official estimate of the 1974-75 Canadian
wheat crop is 14.8 million tons, down 1 million tons
from earlier unofficial estimates. This figure may be
further reduced after full evaluation of recent frost in
the major wheat growing area is made.
25X1
India: Upswing in G;aii- Purchases; New contracts have
pushed scheduled grain imports in FY 1975 to 2.8
million tons-about half of estimated import needs.
(See page 8.) 25X1
Argentina: Continuing Lags in Grain Shipments; Argen-
tina failed to meet delivery schedules on 1.4 million tons
of grain in first half 1974 because of lack of storage
capacity, port congestion, and incompetent manage-
ment. F - ](See page 7.)
25X1
Sino-Japanese Fertilizer Deadlock Broken; A new con.
tract signed last week will provide China with 900,000
tons of urea and 200,000 tons of ammonium sulphate at
favorable prices. F_____1(Sec page 6.)
I
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COMMUNIST COUNTRIES
Poland. Economic Gains Under Gierek; The Polish
leader will visit the United States in early October with
four years of impressive economic achievements to his
credit. F____](See page 1.)
Brezhnev Comments on Soviet Grain Crop. His short
reference to the grain crop suggests the regime has little
PUBLICATION OF INTEREST
Technical Notes on Petroleum Industry Operations (See
page 9.)
COMPARATIVE INDICATORS
hope for achieving this year's goal of 205.6 million tons. Recent Data Concerning Internal Economic Activities.
page 9.)
More Soviet Gas to West Germany; The USSR has inked Recent Data Concerning External Economic Activities.
another large contract to deliver natural gas to the FRG (See page A-2.)
in return for large diameter pipe. (See
(See page 8.) (See page A-11
u
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Secret
Edward Gierek, First Secretary of Poland's Communist Party and de facto head
of state, will visit the United States in early October with four years of impressive
economic achievements to his credit. The Poland: Economic Indicators
removal of his predecessor, Gomulka, had
been triggered by popular discontent with
living conditions.
Since Gierek assumed power in 1970:
? growth in GNP has averaged an
excellent 7% annually;
? crops and livestock have registered
strong gains following the poor
agricultural year of 1970;
? higher farm output has provided
the raw materials to boost output
in the food industry by an average
annual rate of 9-1/2%, compared
with only 3% in 1966-70;
? growth in consumer goods output
has exceeded the growth in pro-
ducer goods for the first time since
1958; and
? investment, spurred by massive
imports of Western machinery and
equipment on credit, has increased
even faster than GNP and consump-
tion.
Healthy elements in this growth include
a less doctrinaire internal economic policy
and a greater willingness to take advantage of
Average Annual Percentage Growth
Gross national
product
4-1/2
7
Agricultural
output
6-1/2
Industrial
output
8
10
Producers' goods
9
10
Consumer goods
6-1/2
10.1/2
Fixed investment
8
18
Per capita
consumption
4
7-1/2
Poland: Foreign Trade
Total imports
3,608
7,862
Total exports
3,548
6,432
Imports from
developed West
901
3,431
Exports to
developed West
962
2,063
Imports from
United States
58
315
Exports to
United States
93
190
Imports from
West Germany
143
924
Exports to
West Germany
181
431
Imports from
United Kingdom
191
376
Exports to
United Kingdom
152
258
Note: Comments and queries regarding the Economic Intelligence Weekly are welcomed. They may be directed
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trade opportunities with the West. However, the expansion of imports can hardly
continue at the extraordinarily high rate of recent years. Poland's hard currency
debt increased from about $1.2 billion in 1970 to $2.7 billion at yearend in 1973,
and the current debt-service ratio of 20% will rise sharply in 1975-77 when
repayments start on the new credits.
The developed West now accounts for 44% of Polish imports and 32% of exports,
compared with 25% and 27%, respectively, in 1970. The rise in trade with West
Germany has been especially pronounced; since 1970, West Germany has replaced the
United Kingdom as Poland's principal western trading partner.
Trade with the United States has boomed since ljierek came to power. Imports
from the United States increased fourfold during 1971-73. Meanwhile, exports to
the United States merely doubled, with hams still accounting for more than a third
of the total. Consequently, the United States had a trade surplus with Poland last
year for the first time since 1964. The surplus widened in the first half of 1974, as
US exports to Poland increased 56% while imports grew 319o' over the comparable
1973 period.
Promotion and financing of US-Polish trade will be high on the list of topics
that G i e re k will raise in Washington. Warsaw's desire for Western
technology-together with the availability of Exim Bank credits-has resulted in
machinery contracts with US firms worth about $225 million since the beginning of
1973. Because of its rapidly increasing debt burden, Poland has asked to defer
repayments of about $50 million on its PL-480 debt during 1975-77. Meanwhile,
Poland continues its interest in cooperative deals with the United States.
Negotiations are currently under way with US mining, electronics, and motor vehicle
interests.
Copper prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) have fallen from an
April 1974 peak of $1.52 a pound to a low of 65.7 cents on 9 September. This
drop is due to:
? continuing growth in copper production;
2
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? declining consumption of refined copper, attributable to weakening
demand in industrial countries; and
? rapid buildup of LME stocks in the past six months.
The insulated US producers' price has so far held steady at 85 to 87 cents a pound;
it undoubtedly will come under pressure if cheaper copper is imported in substantial
amounts.
Copper Prices
C per pound
London Metal Exchanc c t`j
Non-Communist Copper
Production and Consumption*
(Metal Content)
Million Tons
Refined Consumption
(Includes net purchases and
est.
'Differences between refined copper production and
mine production represent mainly production
from scrap. Differences between refined copper
production and consumption reflect inventory changes
for producers and traders but not fabricators.
Consumption includes copper refined from both
primary and secondary materials but excludes
direct use of scrap.
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Non-Communist production of refined copper is :xpected to increase by 3%
in 1974, to 6.9 million tons. Increases in mined copper will come primarily from
Chile, Zambia, and Zaire, which - with Peru - make up the Intergovernmental
Council of Copper Exporting Countries (CIPEC). Chile plans to produce about
900,000 tons this year, 165,000 tons more than in 1973, as the industry recovers
from the Allende era. Production is now running at this level. Zambia and Zaire
are expected to increase output by a total of 50,000 tons. US production probably
will come close to the 1973 level of 2.1 million toms, in spite of the strike in
July, which cost 150,000 tons of refined copper.
Free World copper consumption in 1974 probably will drop about 1.5% from
the 1973 level, to 6.7 million tons. The excess output of perhaps 200,000 tons
will be added to stocks that remain low because of the worldwide boom in industrial
demand last year. Although copper stocks on the LME, for example, rose from
10,500 tons on 2 April to 68,000 tons on Monday, they are still below the 1972
level.
Japan's slump has been a key factor in the weakening of world copper prices.
The drop in industrial output in the first half reduced Japanese demand for refined
copper, while imports of ores and concentrates continued at high levels under
long-term contracts. Japan consequently began to export surplus production.
Exports reached about 150,000 tons from January through August and may climb
to 200,000 tons (worth about $400 million) by yearend. Production cuts are
unlikely because the industry is reluctant to disturb the import contracts and wants
to make full use of processing facilities. Tokyo is happy to have the added export
earnings to help cover the oil bill.
The CIPEC countries, source of 38% of Free World copper mine production
and half of world copper exports, are increasingly concerned about the recent drop
in prices. They are discussing the possible formation of an organization to establish
buffer stocks and set prices independent of the LME price, currently used in sales
contracts for their exports. Lack of financing to build stocks probably will prevent
an effective move in this direction. Measures to limit production or exports also
appear unlikely, because each country is highly dependent on copper earnings and
is still intent on expanding output.
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CANADA: DISSENTING VIEWS ON DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY
Ottawa's industrial development strategy, emphasizing rapid expansion of
secondary manufacturing to generate employment, is coming under further attack
within Canada. Among those questioning the policy is the Chairman of the
Economic Council of Canada; the Council is an influential research body that advises
the government on long-term economic issues. Canadian techniques for promoting
manufacturing have been responsible for much of the recent friction in economic
relations with the United States.
Critics of the established policy argue that Canada's comparative advantage
lies in production of industrial raw materials and foodstuffs. They claim that
worldwide demand for raw materials will remain strong over the long tern and
will make the exploitation of natural resources more profitable than in the past.
Additional jobs could be created, they argue, by doing more of the primary
processing of commodities within Canada. This alternative development strategy
has great appeal to the resource-rich provinces of the West, which have long
complained that present policy favors manufacturing in Ontario and Quebec. The
Easterners oppose a change in policy direction; some, at least, seem to realize that
accelerated efforts to produce and export raw materials could push up the value
of the Canadian dollar, making their manufactures less competitive abroad.
Opponents of the current industrial strategy also claim that the role of
secondary manufacturing in generating employment has been exaggerated. They
note, correctly, that service industries have been originating many more jobs than
has manufacturing. More important, they point to projections that show much
slower growth in the labor force by the end of the decade. In their vie., Canada
will be entering a period of labor scarcity by that time.
The Trudeau government shows no sign of considering a reordering of
development priorities. In fact, Trudeau reaffirmed these priorities in the recent
election campaign. His FY 1975 budget - to be resubmitted next month -
probably will continue the tax reductions granted in 1973 for manufacturing
industries and will raise income taxes for mining and petroleum companies.
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The longstanding deadlock in Sino-Japanese fertilizer negotiations has been
broken by the sale to China last week of 900,000 tors of urea and 200,000 tons
of amnionium sulphate to be delivered through January 1975.
Prices under the new contract are below world prices, with the Chinese paying
$216 and $108 per ton delivered for urea and ammonium sulphate. The Chinese
justified their demands for lower prices on the basis of having "saved" the Japanese
fertilizer industry during weak market periods in the past. A compromise was made
by the Japanese in lowering their price and by the Chinese in reducing the quantity
demanded. The Japanese acceded to a below-market price because they are eager
to expand political and economic ties with the People's Republic.
The Chinese have resisted rising fertilizer prices more than other Asian
importers. Indonesia, Thailand, and India are paying more than $300 per ton of
urea delivered - an increase of more than 200% over last year's prices. China has
broken off trade negotiations rather than pay these prices. For example, Peking
still has not signed contracts with the European fertilizer cartels that have supplied
the PRC in past years.
The breakthrough with the Japanese improves the outlook for an adequate
supply of nitrogenous fertilizer in China next spring. Romania, a dependable
supplier in the past, should augment the supply.
Prospects for Chinese purchases of fertilizer under equally favorable conditions
are not promising for 1975-76. Japan is likely to feel less indebted to the Chinese
next year, and word fertilizer prices probably will remain high. The PRC fertilizer
bottleneck will began to ease in 1976, when the first of the 13 imported
ammonia-urea complexes is scheduled to begin producing. In anticipation of' the
startup of these plants, the Chinese recently purchased 10 heavy duty fertilizer
packaging systems from a US company. Each system is capable of handling 15
50-pound bags per minute - ample capacity for these ammonia-urea complexes.
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ARGENTINA: CONTINUING LAGS IN GRAIN SHIPMENTS
Argentina failed to meet delivery schedules on 1.4 million tons of grain during
the first half of 1974 because of:
? insufficient storage capacity,
? port congestion created by a general expansion of exports and a lack
of deep-draft facilities, and
? incompetence of th? National Grain Board in scheduling exports and
managing the flow of grain to ports.
The current backlog plus heavy commitments for the remainder of the year
means that delays will continue into 1975. Argentina has promised shipment of
more than 5.2 million tons of grain during the second half of the year in addition
to the delayed tonnage. It shipped only 5.5 million tons in second half 1973,
when the flow of grain was better managed.
Argentina probably will sell abroad about 2 million tons of wheat, 2 million
tons of corn, and 1 million tons of sorghum in the first half of 1975. Under
the best of cenditiors, Argentina would still have an estimated backlog of 500,000
tons by mid-1975. More likely, the delayed tonn will be closer to the present
backlog.
Improper scheduling of shipments from the interior to ports and poor
management have resulted in losses this year of 1.0 ::zillion tons of sorghum and
small amounts of corn. These losses forced the National Grain Board to suspend
further export sales of sorghum in late July and exasperated good customers such
as India. Although A: entina will not immediately lose markets, a! enated customers
may turn to more reliable suppliers once the current world shortage eases.
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India: Upswing in Grain Purchases
India purchased 700,000 tons of US, Argentine, and Canadian wheat during
the past two weeks, pushing scheduled grain imports in FY 1975 to 2.8 million
tons - about half of minimum import needs. Faced with tight grain markets and
below-normal monsoon rains, Now Delhi abandoned its ceiling of $150 a ton for
foreign wheat. India has discussed with US officials a need for 8 million tons of
concessional grain imports from all sources during the next 18 months. Instead of
the resumption of PL-480 deliveries, the government wants to obtain US grain on
long-term credits or on barter or through the United Nations.
Brezhnev Comments on Grain Crop
Communist Party General Secretary Brezhnev described the 1974 Soviet grain
crop as "not bad" in a 7 September speech at Novorossiysk. In a one-paragraph
reference to the crop, Brezhnev predicted that many oblasts in the western part
of the country will produce enough grain to fulfill their commitments while
admitting that the crop in Siberia and Kazakhstan was in trouble. Contrary to
Western press stories, Brezhnev did not predict that the national goal of 205.6
million tons will be met this year. The short shrift afforded the crop in his speech
and the admission of d1ficulties in the New Lands suggest that the regime holds
little hope for achieving the plan figure.
More Soviet Gas to West Germany
The USSR has signed a third contract with West German firms to deliver
natural gas in return for large-diameter pipe. The Soviet Union will deliver 53 billion
to 88 billion cubic feet of gas per year to Ruhrgas AG in 1978-2000, and as
part payment Mannesmann AG will supply 900,000 tons of pipe worth $150 million
to $200 million.
Soviet earnings from this deal could reach $1.8
billion to $3.0 billion. Under the 1970 and 1972 contracts, the USSR agreed to
deliver about 247 billion cubic feel per year in 1973-92 at a substantially lower
prig.
25X1
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Work has started on the Eurodif uranium enrichment plant at Tricastin in
southern France. Excavation began in August for the $2.5 billion complex, which
will include a gaseous diffusion facility and four associated nuclear generating plants.
Full operation of the enrichment plant is scheduled for 1981. If Eurodif meets
its target, it will become the largest supplier of uranium enrichment services
outside the United States. Eurodif already holds contracts with electric utilities
in Japan, West Germany, Switzerland, and Eurodif member countries (France, Italy,
Spain, and Belgium).
Technical Notes on Petroleum Industry Operations: A Compilation
of Articles from International Oil Developments
This collection of articles covers technical aspects of petroleum industry
operations, including exploration, production, transportation, storage, and
processing of crude oil and natural gas. The text is illustrated by numerous charts
and photographs.
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INTERNAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS
GNP'
Constant Market Prices Average Annual
Growth Rota Since
-
WHOLESALE PRICES
Average Annual
Industrial
Growth (lute Since
Percent change
Latest train Prawmrs I Year Previous
Percent Change
Latest train Preweris I Year 3 Months
Ouarter Ouerler 1970 Earhnr Ouarter
Month Month 1970 Earlier [other
United States
74 II
-0.3
3.0
-1,
'-1.2
United States
Jul 74
2.7
9.3
25.1
34.2
Japan
7411
0.4
5.5
-3.8
1.0
Japan
Jul 74
1.1
11.3
34.2
13.2
West Germany
74 1
1.2
3.5
1.5
5.0
West Germany
Jun 74
0.2
7.0
13.1
10.3
France
73 IV
1.8
5.8
5.7
7.3
France
Jul 74
-0.4
12.8
32.5
-0.4
United Kingdom
741
-3.5
1.9
- 4,4
-13.3
United Kingdom
Jul 74
1.5
11.2
25.0
20.9
Italy
73 IV
1.9
3.7
5.3
7.7
Italy
May 74
0.7
14.5
43.0
35.0
Canada
741
1.7
5.4
3.0
7.0
Canada
Jun 74
0.1
10.9
23.5
16.1
Average Annual
Growth Rate Since
Average Annual
Growth Rate Since
Percent Changi
latest from Previous I Year 3 Months
Month Month 1970 Earlier Earher??
Peiceni Changi
Latest train Previous
Month Month
1 Year 3 Months
1970 Earlier Earlier
United States
Jul74
0
4.5
-0.6
4.0 Unite
d States
Jul 74 I
0.8 I
6.2
11.8
12.2
Japan
Jul74
0
6.2
-1.8
-6.7 Japa
n
Jul 74
11.5
25.2
11.9
West Germany
Jun 74
- 3.0
2.4
-1.9
-0.0 West
German
y
Jul 74
6.2
6.9
5.2
France
Jun 74
0.8
6.2
5.0
2.2 Franc
e
Jul 74
8.2
14.4
15.3
United Kingdom
Jun 74
0
2.1
-2.8
15.2 Unite
d Kingdo
m
Jul 74
10.6
17.1
14.0
Italy
Jun 74
5.7
5.8
6.5
3.9 Italy
Jul 74
9.9
18.7
22.3
Canada
Jun 74
0.6
6.2
3.3
-2.0 Cana
da
Jul 74
6.6
11.3
15.9
RETAIL SALES'
Current Prices Average Annual
Average Annual
Growth Hale Since
Growth Hate Since
Percent Changi
latest heat Previous I Year 3 Months
Month Month 1970 Earlier Earlier''
Percent Change
Latest from Previous
Month Month
1 Year 3 Months
1970 Earlier Earlier
United States
Jul 74
4.2
10.2
8.4
14.6 Unite
d States
Jul 74 I
0.1 I
5.9
5.1
5.3
Japan
Apr 74
1.2
12.5
13,8
-5.8 Japa
n
May 74
3.0
17.9
14.8
19.8
W^st Germany
Jun 74
-0.5
7.7
2.0
-0.1 West
Germany
Jun 74
2.0
9.2
5.3
10.4
Ftunce
May 74
6.2
8.5
18.1
1.3 Franc
e
Feb 74
-0.3
12.0
9.2
16.5
United Kingdom
May74
0
11.2
16.2
7.4 Unite
d Kingdo
m
Jun 74
- 0.6
8.7
0.8
8.3
Italy
Feb 74
8.8
19.0
35.9
36.7 Italy
Jan 74
0.1
20.7
22.7
22.5
Canada
Jun 74
0.2
12.2
17.8
18.1
Cana
da
Jul 74
-0.7
12.7
9.6
13.5
Representative Rates Latest Date
I Year 3 Months I Month
Earlier Earlier Earlier
United States
Dealer placed finance paper
Aug 28
12.00
9.00
9.00
11.45
Japan
Call money
Aug 21
13.75
7.50
12.00
13.00
West Germany
Interbank loans (3Months)
Aug 28
9.50
3.75
9.50
9.20
France
Call money
Aug 7
13.38 I
8
89
13.00
13.00
United Kingdom
Sterling interbank loan (3 mal
Aug 28
12.64
.
14.44
12.85
13.39
'Seasonally adjusted.
??Av;rage for Iat.ut 3 months compared
Canada
Finance paper
Aug 28
11.78
8.30
11.35
11.53
w,rh overall for previous 3 months.
Euro-Dollars
Three-month deposits
Aug 28
13.91
11.51
11.86
13.31
11 September 1974
Office of Economic Research/CIA
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EXPORTS"
1.0.1).
United States
Japan
West Germany
Franco
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
EXTERNAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Cunudnl lve
Lalusl Month ---'------...-----
Million US $
Jul 74 8,307
Jul 74 4,878
Jul 74 7,024
Jul 74 3,000
Jul 74 3,237
Jun 74 2,270
Jul 74 2,753
EXPORY PRICES
IJS$
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
IMPORTS'
f.o.b.
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
TRADE BALANCE'
f.o.b./I.o.b.
Unite4 S!ates
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
Latest Month
Millie:: US S
Jul 74
Jul 74
Jul 74
Jul 74
Jul 74
Jun 74
Jul 74
9,036
4,726
5,860
4,515
4,402
2,827
2,778
Million US $
1074 1073
54,915 37,070
20,498 19,789
50,007 23,881
20,110 20,200
20,227 10,109
13,285 0,401
18,218 14,287
Percent
Clumuu
44.0
40.1
41.3
28.9
25.0
41.3
27.6
Curnulaliva
Million US S Percent
1974 1913 Change
55,900 38,879 43.0
30,921 16,037 82.7
30,353 27,908 30.3
28,508 19,405 46.5
27,507 18,398 49.8
10,852 10,708 57.4
17,709 13,056 35.6
Latest Month
Jul 74
Jul 74
Jul 74
Jul 74
Jul 74
Jun 74
Jul 74
Million US S 1974
-728 I -991
152
1,958
-615
-1,166
-556
-25
-1,422
14.345
-2,393
-7,340
-3,568
510
Change
-83
-4,274
6,373
-3,194
-5,051
-2,259
-721
C CEF
~ASt and LA ppp~
rtent ong.Term'Capital Transactions
Latest Period cumulative (Million US $I
United States'
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
74 I
Jul 74
Jul 74
73 IV
74 I
73 11
741
Million US S 1973
I 2,065 I 2,065
-631
288
-431
84
-336
-195
-9,051
5.069
-2.471
84
639
-195
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
1973
-909
2,852
7,972
801
-2,289
-1,307
1.231
1912
-1,006
-5.158
1.438
-369
-1,033
971
-191
1 Year
End of Billion US $ Jun 1970 [other
Jul 74 14.9 14.5 12.9
Aug 74 12.9 4.1 15.1
Jul74 33.5 8.8 34.1
Aug 74 8.5 4.4 11.2
Jul 74 6.7 2.8 6.6
Jun 74 5.3 4.7 8.0
Aug 74 5.9 4.3 5.6
'Seasonally adjusted.
"Converted into US dollars at current market rates of exchange.
Chance
3,071
-3,893
3,831
-2,102
?,117
- 332
-4
3 Months
Earlier
14.6
13.2
33.8
8.1
7.0
8.7
P2
EXPORT PRICES
National Currency
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
IMPORT PRICES
National Currency
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
Average Annual
Growth 11111e Since
Latest bunt I'rpvious I Your 3 months
Mnnlh Month 111111 (oilier Earlier
Jul 74 I 0.6 11.7 26.7 r 143
Jun 74
Jun 74
Apr 74
Apr 74
Apr 74
May 74
Average Annual
Growth Role Since
I'eu: ml Change --'----------
Latest Irma Previous 1 Year 3 Months
Monllr Merrill 19111 Eurhur Earlier
Jul 74 0.5 11.7 25.7 14.3
Jun 74, 2.7 10.2 44.5 30.6
Jun 74 0.2 4.7 17,7 13.5
Apr 74 4.3 10.2 20.3 54.4
Apr 74 3.8 12.6 28.8 57.7
Apr 74 ' 5.6 13.8 39.6 63.6
May 74 0.8 12.4 38.2 49.2
EXCHANGE RATES Spot Rate
As of 0 Sep 74
US S
Per Unit
JapanlYera 0.0033
West Germany IMartklche 0.3750
Francelr and (Pound 0.2075
United Kingdom Staling) 2.3110
Italy (Lira) 0.0015
Canada (Dollar) 1.0108
Percent Change final
18 Dec 19 Mill
1971 1973
1.76 -13.12
20.85 5.90
5.38 -5.85
-11.31 -6.10
-12.15 -14.63
1.30 1.31
Latest train Provums I Yeas
Month Month 197(1 Earlier
Jul 74 2.4 19.5 52.3
Jun 74 2.3 17.7 83.2
Jun 74 1.7 6.9 29.7
Apr 74 4.8 15.3 56.4
Apr 74 3.5 21.5 61.6
Apr 74 5.4 26.0 90.b
May 74 3.4 10.6 30.0
0.9 17.1 36.1 29.7
-2.4 15.0 20.3 31.8
3.5 14.2 10.4 70.9
5,9 12.5 23.9 109.7
5.8 13.3 29.4 73.0
1.5 14.9 44.1 ' 60.1
Dec Go
19.75
49.16
2.7 7
-17.19
-5.62
9.58
TRADE-WEIGHTED EXCHANGE RATES*
United States
Japan
We Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
Dec 66
-13.25
11.55
29.30
-16.84
-34.88
-25.18
7.48
Average Annual
Growth Rate Since
3 Months
Earlier
27.1
27.7
16.9
131.9
89.5
163.4
54.7
30 Aug
1974
-0.03
-0.16
0.10
-0.25
-0.26
-0.11
18 Dec
1971
-4.02
-1.96
12.41
-3.51
-20.7U
-23.88
0.88
19 Mar
1973
2.54
-13.77
7.40
-5.91
-6.32
-16.96
2.52
30 Aug
1914
0.35
0.85
0.15
0.38
0.43
-0.04
0.01
"'Weighting is based on each listed country's trede with 18 other industrialized
countries to reflect the competitive impact of exchange-rate variations
among the major currencies.
Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150040-2