ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00875R001500150039-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 19
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 28, 2009
• Sequence Number: 39
• Publication Date: September 4, 1974
• Content Type: REPORT

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Secret
Economic Intelligence Weeklyr
ON FILE USDA RELEASE
INSTRUCTIONS APPLY
Secret
CIA No. 8141/74
4 September 1974
Copy N2 386
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ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY
4 September 1974
INDUSTRIAL NATIONS
Paying the Oil Bills: The Japanese, British, and 1!alian
Situations; The three countries have been struggling to
meet oils bills totaling nearly $35 billion for 1974.
(See page 1.)
Japan: Sagging Demand Hits Commodity Markets; The
Japanese economic slump is contributing substantially to
the decline in world prices of certain key commodities.
(See page 3.)
INTERNATIONAL MARKETS
The Dollar continued to advance against most major
currencies last week, gaining from 0.3% to 1.5% relative to
the major European currencies but declined slightly
against the yen. The price of gold increased $4.50 an
ounce during the week.
The EC Commission has proposed that EC agricultural
ministers at their 23 September meeting increase producer
prices for agricultural products an average of 4% in
October. The proposal is in response to pressure from
farmers who are seeking relief from a cost-price squeeze.
The price rise would fail in the middle of a marketing year
that began with an 8.5% increase.
US Trade Surplus with USSR Declines; First half trade
data indicate the US surplus in 1974 will be less than half
of the $1 billion surplus earned last year.
(See page 5.)
US Recalls Spring Wheat Team from USSR; The
premature return was prompted by Soviet refusal to
permit visits to key New Lands areas.0(See
page 8.)
Canada: Transport Problems Impede Grain Exports;
Exports for 1974 probably will fall 1-1/2 million tons
short of earlier expectations.
(See page 4.)
Copper Prices on the London Metal Exchange are coming
under steady downward pressure as a result of weak
demand, rising production, and increasing copper stocks.
Prices on the LME fell by 7 cents last week to a yearly low
of 73.9 cents a pound. The insulated US domestic price is
holding steady at 85 to 87 cents a pound.
See Metal Prices Chart, page A-3.)
Wheat Prices Held Steady through the month of August,
following a dramatic drop beginning in February and a
subsequent rally since June. Cotton prices continue their
steady decline, which began in January. Corn, sugar, and
soybean prices continue upward, with sugar prices
increasing in August 24.8% over a month ago and 248.4%
over Augi.ist 1973. 0(See /-.gricultural Prices
Chart, page A-4.)
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
Major Oil Exporters - A New Force in Economic A.d to
LDCs; OPEC countries pledged $5.4 billion in aid in the
first half of 1974, mainly to Egypt, S; ria, India, and
?akistan. (See page 7.)
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Brazil Reluctant to Join Iron Ore Group; Brazil remains
skeptical of efforts Gy LDC iron ore producers to raise
export prices. F](See page 9.)
25X1 Thailand Corn Exports; Foreign sales will benefit from a
good crop and high prices brought on by the US drought.
(See page 9.)
Indonesia to Cut Timber Output; The government wishes
to bolster sagging export prices and conserve resources.
(See page 9.)
Administrative Changes in Soviet Economic Organizations
suggest that preparations are under way to handle
increased commerce with the United States. All Soviet
industrial ministries have established separate divisions for
dealing with.American trade, and a new department at the
State Planning Committ%;e, Gosplan, is to oversee econ-
omic cooperation with foreign countries. The changes
should increase the flexibility of the bureaucratic struc-
ture that handles foreign trade and thereby facilitate the
flow of Western technology into the Soviet economy.
25X1
High Bulgarian Official to Visit US; Deputy Premier Ivan
Popov will discuss trade relations and large-scale industrial
projects. ~~See page 9.)
Soviet Progress in the Production of Integrated Circuits
(Seepage 10.)
Recenil Data Concerning Internal Economic Activities
(See page A-1.)
Recent Data Concerning External Economic Activities
(See page A-2.)
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PAYING THE OIL BILLS: THE JAPANESE, BRITISH,
AND ITALIAN SITUATION'S
Japan, the United Kingdom, and Italy have been struggling to meet oil import
bills that will total nearly $35 billion in 1974. Their approaches to the problem
and their successes to date vary considerably. The United Kingdom and Italy have
arranged adequate financing for 1974, but will face increasing financing difficulties
next year. Japan is reducing its current account deficit and should have little
difficulty financing the remainder.
Japan
Japan so far has coped with the $ 14 billion increase in annual oil costs without
massive public borrowing abroad. In response to the problem, Tokyo has:
? tightened monetary and fiscal policy another notch to hold down
import demand and free more goods for export,
? put direct limits on business investment,
? restricted energy consumption in industry, and
? discouraged investment abroad, except in projects needed to assure
supplies of raw materials, particularly fuel.
As a result 01 these measures and the contractionary impact of the higher oil
bill itself, GNP and the volume of imports has fallen while exports have continued
to increase sharply. Japan's surplus in non-oil trade soared to $6.3 billion in the
first six months of 1974, holding the current account deficit to $5.7 billion.
Long-term capital outflows were reduced to $2.6 billion from $5.5 billion in the
last half of 1973. Short-term commercial bank borrowing not only financed the
resulting $8.3 billion deficit in the basic balance but also brought a $1.2 billion
increase in Japan's official reserves.
Note: Comments and queries regarding the Economiclnreli/sence Weekly are welcomed.
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Secret
Japanese banks are finding it increasingly difficult to borrow short-term funds
to cover longer term financing needs. Tokyo accordingly is now seeking
medium-term loans in international capital markets and from OPEC countries. Japan
has recently arranged a $1 billion, four-year loan from Saudi Arabia. Tokyo will
probably seek further medium-term aid this year to avoid a substantial drawdown
of reserves and further increase in its short-terns debt.
United Kingdom
Unlike Japan, the United Kingdom had a deficit in non-oil trade of $2.4 billion
in the first half of 1974 in addition to its oil bill of nearly $4 billion. Britain's
traditional surplus in service transactions limited the cur,~,nt account deficit to
$4.8 billion - $1 billion less than Japan's deficit.
To meet the deficit expected for 1974, public authorities and private firms
arranged about $4.7 billion in Eurodollar credits. Only $1.7 billion had to be used
in the first half. The remainder of the deficit was financed through other capital
inflows, including sterling deposits by some oil producers and increases in sterling
working balances of international oil companies.
Capital inflows, including those from loans already arranged, will provide
Britain with ample financing for the rest of 1974. The United Kingdom appears,
however, to be receiving a smaller share of oil-related capital flows now than earlier
this year. If this situation continues, London will have to find alternative sources
of funds, which could be difficult.
Italy
Italy has the most formidable payments problem of any major country. The
$3.5 billion cost of oil in the first half of 1974 came on top of a deficit for
non-oil trade and a substantial outflow of long-term capital, raising financing needs
to $6.3 billion.
To make the necessary payments in the first half, Italy borrowed about $2.3
billion in the Eurodollar market, obtained $1.9 billion in short-term credits from
its EC partners, and drew down official reserves by $1.1 billion. By the end of
June, foreign exchange reserves had dwindled to just over $1 billion, although
substantial gold holdings remained.
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Rome's medium-term credit arrangements will carry it through the rest of
the year if the EC grants an expected three-month extension on the $1.9 billion
short-term credit. The $2 billion loan from West Germany, arranged last week,
and Italy's credit position in the IMP give Rome about $3.5 billion in medium-term
resources. With an extension of the EC credit, Rome would have adequate resources
through December.
Italy must now look for funds to meet next year's needs. Problems in arranging
the most recent Eurodollar loan indicate that the government is nearing its limit
for private credit. The use of' gold as collateral in the West German loan has further
prejudiced Italy's private credit position, since lenders would probably want a
similar provision in any new private loan. The most likely source of' n?,w
medium-term credit is through an EC-backed arrangement. Bonn has already
indicated that it will support such a scheme. Now that West Germany has given
direct help to Italy, Bonn is in a strong position to push for Community acceptance
JAPAN: SAGGING DEMAND HITS COMMODITY MARKETS
The Japanese economic slump is con-
tributing substantially to the decline in
world prices of certain key commodities.
The physical volume of raw material imports
was slightly lower in the first half of 1974
than a year earlier and will probably decline
in the months ahead because of stagnating
industrial output. Last year, import volume
rose 20%.
Imports of textile and construction
materials have dropped sharply. The Japa-
nese are no longer active in the Australian
wool market and will reduce cotton pur-
chases in the United States and elsewhere.
They probably will buy about 10% less US
cotton in the marketing year that began
1 August than they did in the previous
year. Hardly any new orders have been
placed in recent months in US or other
cotton markets.
Japan: Trends in Import Volume
Percent Change
1973
over
1972
First Half
1974 over
First Half
1973
Crude oil
Coal
and coke
15
3
Refined copper
34
-29
Copper ores
and concentrates
37
10
Iron ore
21
6
Ferrous scrap
116
-47
Bauxite
12
-5
Logs
and lumber
17
.5
Cotton
9
-9
Wool
-6
-48
Grains
and soybeans
14
7
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Inventories of a few commodities are so large that the Japanese are becoming
significant re-exporters. Exports of refined copper may reach 200,000 tons this year,
equivalent to 10% of world exports in 1973. Lead and zinc exports, still small, are also
increasing.
Heavy Japanese selling of refined copper has been an important factor in the
nearly 50?lo decline in price since April. Traditional exporters - Chile and Zambia - are
pressing the Japanese to restrain overseas sales, offering to ship less ores, concentrates,
and refined metal than is stipulated in long-term contracts. The Japanese are reluctant
to alter existing contracts and probably also want to make full use of their copper
refining capacity.
Recent drops in world prices for lead, zinc, wool, cotton, and some wood products
are attributable partly to weak Japanese demand. 25X1
Transportation problems are expected to hold Canadian grain exports 1-1/2
million tons, or 8%, below earlier estimates for the marketing year that began
on 1 August. Exports consequently will not appreciably exceed last year's
shipments of 15.7 million tons. After the transport difficulties of 1973-74, some
customers for Canadian grain no doubt are tempted to turn to more dependable
suppliers.
Strikes are hampering grain deliveries from both the east and west coasts.
Since early August, a strike by Canadian pilots on the Great Lakes has slowed
shipments from the prairie provinces to Montreal. An accident on 26 August in
the Welland Canal - linking Lake Erie and Lake Ontario - is blocking seaway
traffic to "Montreal for at least two weeks. Stocks at Montreal, necessary to keep
shipments moving smoothly, already have been depleted because of the pilots'
strike. In Vancouver, which usually handles half the wheat exports, grain handlers
recently went on strike, following a two-month slowdown.
The Great Lakes pilot strike has entered mediation and may soon be settled.
But no quick settlement of the Vancouver dispute is in sight. At the urging of
the Canadian Wheat Board, Prime Minister Trudeau has pressured the grain
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companies to accept the strikers' demands, so far to no avail. Trudeau is reluctant
to recall parliament - scheduled to return on 30 September - to legislate an end
to the strike.
On the basis of previous experience, the Wheat Board admits that arrears in
deliveries will be difficult to make up. Even if both strikes were settled promptly,
wheat exports could not return to normal before the end of September. Meanwhile,
the Wheat Board worries about the damage to Canada's reputation as a reliable
exporter. China, one of the largest customers, has already complained about delays
in wheat shipments and may look to the United States for extra supplies.
US TRADE SURPLUS WITH USSR DECLINES
First-half statistics indicate that the US trade surplus with the USSR in 1974
will be less than half of the $1 billion surplus earned last year. US exports to
the Soviet Union in the first six months totaled $316 million, down by 55%
compared with the same period in 1973. Meanwhile imports from the USSR climbed
to $188 million, more than double last year.
First Half
First Half
1973
1974
US Exports
1,187
694
316
Grain
837
511
168
Soybeans
67
67
Machinery and equipment
204
74
102
Chemicals
17
9
11
Iron and steel
14
5
6
Other
48
28
29
US Imports
214
87
188
Oil and oil products
76
18
67
Platinum and platinum
group metals
75
43
83
Diamonds and other precious
stones
17
7
6
Chrome ore
6
2
3
Nonferrous base metals
18
6
12
Other
22
11
17
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The $400 million decline in US sales of agricultural products was responsible
for the fall in exports. Sales of machinery and equipment were lower than
expected -- showing no increase above the 1973 rate. The increase in US imports,
compared with the first half of 1973, was paced by oil and oil products and
platinum group metals. The increase in value of petroleum imports was largely
a function of price.
The data for the first six months suggest that US exports for the year will
fall short of the billion-dollar mark, perhaps totaling $800 million. With less than
$100 million in grain deliveries to be made to the USSR in the last half of 1974,
total exports of agricultural products probably will fall short of $300 million.
Exports of machinery and equipment should be substantially higher in the second
half of 1974 and may reach $300 million to $400 million for the year.
US imports for the whole of 1974 will depend heavily on the volume and
price of imports of oil and platinum group metals. A dcubling of total imports
from the USSR over the 1973 level seems likely - to roughly $400 million.
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MAJOR OIL EXPORTERS-A NEW
FORCE IN ECONOMIC
AID TO LDCs
Economic aid commitments from
the Organization of Petroleum Ex-
porting Countries (OPEC) to LDCs
pushed the worldwide total of official
bilateral pledges for the first half of
1974 to a record $13.4 'billion, almost
double the extensions of the first half
of : 973. Commitments by multilateral
institutions-mostly UN agencies-may
have added another $1.5 billion to $2
billion. Although Western nations (in-
cluding Japan) remained the Third
Estimated Official Bilateral Economic Aid Pledged
to Less PJveloped Countries
World's principal source of bilateral o
aid, their new commitments of $6.1
ion
ed fo le
s th
n
o
bil
l
.........,...
s
aa
hula
p
the total. OPEC countries accounted
for $5.4 billion, or 40%, during the first
half.
Iran provided one-half
of the OPEC total. Teh-
ran's commitment of
$2.6 billion makes Iran
a donor of equal rank
with the United States.
? Kuwait and Saudi Ara-
bia were also major oil
aid donors, extending
about $1 billion and
$ 700 million, respec-
tively.
? Two-fifths of OPEC aid
was allocated to Egypt
arad Syria. Another 35%
went to India and Pakis-
tan.
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Pakistan
a
other
India .1
nb~~
1 January-30 June 1974
Total: US $13.4 Billion
Other
Syria
Cuba `
/te
Egypt 1 Other
a
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OPEC aid to Egypt and Syria consisted largely of Arab grants for war-related
reconstruction and development. Aid to other countries has emphasized agricultural
and industrial projects. Only a small part (possibly as little as 5%) was provided to help
LDCs cope with the high price of petroleum.
The enormous OPEC commitments provide new opportunities for Western
industry because OPEC aid will require external technical expertise, equipment, and
institutional support. The size, geographic concentration, and emphasis on project aid
of the OPEC commitments almost certainly will precipitate a reexamination of the
scope and magnitude of Western aid programs.
US Recalls Spring Wheat Team From USSR
The United States recalled its spring wheat team from the USSR last Friday.
The premature return was prompted by the Soviet refusal to permit the team to
visit key spring grain areas in the New Lands of Siberia and Kazakhstan as originally
agreed. Weather data had indicated a serious drought in some of the areas
subsequently dropped from the team's proposed itinerary. Because of the drought,
we had reduced our estimate of the total crop from 205 million to 198 million
tons, while the USDA had lowered its estimate from 215 million to 210 million
tons. The Soviet obstinacy, the latest and most serious irritant in the US-USSR
Agricultural Cooperation Agreement, tends to confirm the seriousness of the
drought and the determination on the part of the Soviets to conceal the extent
of the crop shortfall.
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High Bulgarian Official to Visit US
The Bulgarian Deputy Premier, Ivan Popov, will be in Washington on 23 and
24 September to discuss trade relations. Popov also will visit several American firms,
including kaiser Industries, with which Bulgaria is negotiating a multibillion dollar
contract for alumina, steel, and shipbuilding facilities. This is the first official US
visit by such a high-ranking Bulgarian official -- a clear signal by Sofia of its desire
to improve economic relations with the United States. Popov no doubt will inquire
about US Exim Bank credits to help finance technology imports for Bulgaria's
next five-year plan (1976-80).
Brazil Reluctant to Join Iron Ore Group
Brazil's reported decision to attend an October meeting of LDC iron ore
producers as an observer rather than a full participant will handicap efforts to
unite on price increases. Brazil -- the largest LDC iron ore exporter - is investing
heavily to expand iron ore exports 60% by the end of the decade. Given the
numerous iron ore exporting countries, Brazil remains skeptical of plans to raise
prices by restricting exports.
Thai Corn Exports
Thailand, fourth-ranked corn exporter, will benefit from a good crop and from
price increase.. brought on by the US drought. The Thai have apparently boosted
output about 1 million tons more than 1973 in the crop now being harvested.
Of the total 2.4 million tons available for export - compared with 1.4 million
in 1973 -- Japan has contracted for 1.2 million; another 800,000 is to go to Taiwan
and other East Asian countries; and the remainder is still uncommitted. Thai grain
dealers are already badmouthing government output estimates to assure the highest
possible prices on foreign sales.
Indonesia to Cut Timber Output
Indonesia, the largest supplier of Asian hardwood logs, has decided to reduce
production by 15% in an effort to check declining timber prices. Supporting the
government's move, the Indonesian Timber Association and the Indonesian
Exporters Association have recommended an even larger cutback of 30%. The new
regulation is in keeping with gc,'ernment plans to conserve timber resources and
promote domestic processing. Japan, which imports 70,, of Indonesia's timber,
is not likely to suffer from the cutback; Japanese demand has tapered off, and
stockpiles are sufficient for three or fouv months' consumption. Indonesia, however,
could find its export earnings from timber falling as much as 1510 below the 1974
target of $1 billion.
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Publication of Interest'
Soviet Progress in the Production of Integrated Circuits
(ER RP 74-17, September 1974,
This publication surveys the development of the Soviet integrated circuit (IC)
industry in terms of the quantity and value of production, the types and quality
of devices, and the patterns of consumption. The inexperience of Soviet industry,
outdated production techniques and equipment, and insufficient supplies of
high-quality materials have kept IC output low - so low that usable output is
limited largely to the highest priority military and space applications. To find a
quick solution to its problems and to keep from falling further behind the West,
the USSR is seeking a major inflow of Western (mainly US) IC production
know-how and equipment.
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INTERNAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS
GNP'
C
t
t M
k
A
A
l
WHOLESALE PRICES
ons
an
ar
et Prices
ver ago
nnua
Growth Hale Since
Industrial Average Annual
f
h
Percent Chunuu
ruwt
Hate Since
I'
r
Cl
Latest
Quarter
Note Previous I Year Pieviuus
Quarter 1970 Earlier Quarter
e
cont
mngu
Latest front Previous IYear 3 Months
United States
74 11
1 -0,3
1 3.0
-1.1
-1.2
United States
Manth
Jul 74
Month
2
7
19711
9
3
Eaitier
25
1
Eailinr
34
2
Japan
7411
0.4
5,5
-3.8
1.0
Japan
Jul 74
.
1.1
.
11
3
.
34
2
.
13
2
West Germany
74 I
1.2
3.5
1,5
5.0
West Germany
Jun 74
0.2
.
7
0
.
13.1
.
3
10
France
United Kingdom
73 IV
74 I
1.8
-3.5
5.8
1.9
5.7
-4.4
7.3
-13.3
France
United Kingdom
Jul 74
Jul 74
-0.4
1.5
.
12.8
11.2
32.5
25.0
.
-0.4
20.9
Italy
73 IV
1,9
3.7
5,3
7.7
Italy
May 74
0.7
14.5
43.0
36.6
Canada
74 I
1.7
5.4
3.0
7.0
Canada
May 74
0.8
11,2
23.5
30.4
Average Annual
Growth Hato Since
Average Annual
Growth R
t
S
Prcmu Chongn
latest from Previous I Year 3 Months
Month Month 1970 Earlier Earlier *1
United States Jul 74 0 4
5
0
6
e
ince
a
latest roar Previous 1 Year 3 Months
Month Manttt 1,9711 Earlier Earlier
.
-
.
4.0
Uni
ted State
s
Jul74
0.8
6
2
11
8
12
2
Japan
Jul 74
0
6.2
-6.7
Jap
an
Jul 74
1.8
.
11.5
.
25.2
,
11
9
West Germany
May 74
0.0
3.2
-2.9
We
st Germa
ny
Jun 74
0.4
6.3
0.9
.
0.5
France
Jun 74
0.8
6.2
3.3
-1.1
Fra
nce
Jul74
1.3
8
2
14.4
15.3
United Kingdom
Jun 74
0
2.1
-2.8
20.3
Uni
ted Kingd
om
Jul 74
0
9
.
10.6
17.1
14.0
Italy
Jun 74
5.7
5.8
0.5
3,9
Ital
y
Jul 74
.
2
4
9.9 18.7
22.3
Canada May 74 -0.5
8.2
2.6
2.5
Can
ada
Jul 74
.
0.8
6.6 I 11.3
1
RETAIL SALES*
Current Prices Average Annual
Growth Hale Since
-
Average Annual
Growth Rate Since
Percent Chango
Latest Irani Previous I Year 3 Months
Month Month 1970 Earlier Earlier"
United St
Percent Change
latest front Previous 1 Year 3 Months
Month Month 1970 Eailier Earlier
ates
Jul 74
4.2
10.2
8.4
1 4.6
Unit
ed State
s
Jul 74
0.1
5.9
5
1
5
3
Japan
Apr 74
1.2
12.5
13.8
-5.8
Jap
an
May 74
3.0
17.9
.
14.6
.
19
8
West Germany
France
May 74
May 74
0
6.2
8.0
8.5
3.5
18.1
3.8
1.3
Wes
Fran
t German
ce
y
Jun 74
Feb 74
2.0
-0.3
9.2
12.0
5,3
9.2
.
10.4
16
5
United Kingdom
May74
0
11.2
16.2
7.4
Unit
ed Kingd
om
Jun 74
- 0.6
8.7
0.8
.
8
3
Italy
Feb 74
8.8
19.0
35.9
36.7
Italy
Doc 73
2.8
21.2
17.9
.
22
1
Canada Jun 74 0.1
12.2
17.7
17.9
Can
ada
Jul 74
-0.7
12.7
9.6
.
13.5
Representative Rates latest
U
I Year 3 Months I Month
Date Earlier Earlier Earlier
nited States
Dealer-placed finance paper
Aug 7
11.43
8
50
9
00
9
00
Japan
Call money
Aug 7
13.50
.
7.50
.
12.00
.
12.83
West Germany
Interbank loans(3Months)
Aug 21
9.46
13.75
9.00
9.116
France
Call money
Aug 7
13.38
8.69
13.00
13.00
United Kingdom
Sterling interbank loan (3 ma)
Aug 21
12.66
13.75
12.89
13.34
'Seasonally adjusted.
"
Canada
Finance
a
er
Average for latest 3 month' compared
p
p
Aug 21
11.63
8.08
11.50
11.58
with average for
revious 3
onth
Euro-Dollars Three-month deposits
Aug 21
13.49
11.31
11.83
12.86
p
s.
m
4 September 1974
Office of Economic Research/CIA
Note: US data provided fey US government agencies
Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150039-4
 Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150039-4
EXTERNAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS
EXPORTS"
10.0.
United States
Japan
West Germany
Franco
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
IMPORTS'
fo.b.
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
TRADE BALANCE"
f.o.b/l.o.b.
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
Million US $
Jul 74 8,307
Jul 74 4,879
Jun 74 6,320
Jul 74 3,900
Jul 74 3,23;
Jun 74 2,270
Jun 74 2,853
Mullen US $
1974 1973
54,916 37,970
20,499 19,709
42,786 29,793
20,110 20,260
20,234 10,109
13,285 9,401
15,465 12,148
Purcuel
change
44.0
40.1
43.0
20.0
25.0
41.3
27.3
- Million US S Purcenl
Million US S 1974 1973 Chnngo
Jul 74 9,038 56,907 38,870 43.8
Jul 74 4,726 30,921 16,937 82.7
Jun 74 4,828 30,420 23,250 30.8
Jul 74 4.515 28,508 19,405 46.5
Jul 74 4,402 27,521 18,398 49.6
Jun 74 2,827 16,852 10,708 57.4
Jun 74 2,735 . 14,931 11,101 34.5
Jul 74
Jul 74
Jun 74
Jul 74
Jul 74
Jun 74
Jun 74
EXPORT PRICES
US $
United States
Julian
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
EXPORT PRICES
National Currency
United States
Japan
West Germany
Franca
flailed Kingdom
Italy
Canada
IMPORT PRICES
National Currency
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
Avernun Annual
Growth limn Since
Percent U11111106
latest final llrqviotj%
Morrill Month
Jul 74 I 0.5
Jul, 74
Jun 74
Apr 74
Mar 74
Fob 74
Apr 74
0.9
-3.8
3.5
1.2
1.7
3.2
I Year 3 Montle,
Enrliur EnrliL,
10711
11.7
17.1
14.6
14.2
11.0
10.2
14,8
25.7
35.1
10.0
18.4
10.4
15.9
43.0
14.3
29.7
24.8
70.9
49.0
6,8
70,7
Average Annual
Oruwlh Rate Since
PitCeul Change _-
Lalust free Previous
Month Month 1910
Jul74 0.5 11.7
Jun 74 2.7 10.2
Jun 74 0.2 4.7
Apr 74 4.3 10.2
Mar 74 4.2 11,8
Fab 74 3.1 11.6
Apr 74 2.7 12.5
Percent Change
lolesr floor Prevmus
Month Munlh
-729
152
1,491
-615
-1,168
-556
-82
-992
-1,422
12,366
-2,393
-7,287
-3.566
534
1973
-909
2,852
6,543
801
-2,289
-1,307
1,047
change
-83
-4,274
5,824
-3,194
-4,998
-2,259
-512
BASIC BALANCE"
Current and Long?Torm-Capital Transactions
Latest Period. Cumulative (Million US S)
Million US S 1973 1972
United States' 74 1 2,065 2,065 -1,008
Japan Jul 74 -632 -9.052 -5,158
West Germany Jun 74 285 4,783 1,464
France 73 IV -431 -2,471 -369
United Kingdom 73 IV -1,394 -3,164 -1,954
Italy 7311 -336 639 971
Canada 741 -195 -195 -191
Jul 74
Jun 74
Jun 74
Apr 74
Mar 74
Feb 74
Apr 74
2.4
2.3
0.2
4.8
6.4
16.4
-1.5
JapanlYea) West Germany Mark)
Iic
t Mark)
France lit tool (Pound
United Kingdom sarlhrg)
Italy (lira)
Canada (never)
Change
3.071
-3,894
3,320
-2,102
-1.210
-332
-4
US $
Per Unit
0.0033
0.3756
0.2073
2.3167
0.0015
1.0119
1 Your
Earlier
25.7
44.5
17.7
28.3
26.4
31.8
38.2
3 Months
Earlier
14.3
30.6
13.5
54.4
44.5
58.5
62.0
Average Annual
Growth Rate Since
I Year 3 Months
Earlier Earlier
52.3 27.1
83.2 21.7
27.7 9.9
56.4 131.9
60.9 107.4
88.1 280.8
27.6 I 57.1
197)1
19.5
17.7
6.4
15.3
20.9
24.2
9.9
Percent Change limn
18 Dec 19 Mar
Dec 66 1971 1)173
19.79 1.79
49.40 21.D4
2.67 5.28
-16.98 -11.09
-5.37 -11.92
9.70 1.41
-13.09
6.07
-5.94
-5.86
-14.41
1.42
23 Aug
1974
0.21
-0.87
0
?0.25
-0.26
-0.76
OFFICIAL RESERVES TRADE-WEIGHTED EXCHANGE RATES"`
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
Billion US S As of 30 Aug 74 Percent Change Irony
1 Year 3 Months 18 Dec 19 Mar 23 Aug
End of Billion US S Jun 1970 Earlier Earlier Dec 66 1971 1973 1974
Jul 74 14.9 14.5 12.9 14.6 United States 1-13.60 -4.37 2.20 0.43
Jul74 13.2 4.1 15.2 12.7 Japan 10.66 -2.08 -14.68 0.38
Jun 74 34.2 8.8 32.3 32.9 West Germany 29.15 12.27 7.26 -0.56
Jul 74 8.3 4.4 11.8 8.1 France 1-17.24 I -3.89 -6.35 0.52
Jul 74 6.7 2.8 6.6 7.0 United Kingdom -35.33 -21.14 -6.75 0.09
Jun 74 5.3 4.7 6.0 8.7 Italy 1-25.12 I -23.82 -IC 92 0.15
Jul 74 6.0 4.3 5.8 6.2 Canada 7.47 0.87 2.51 -0.70
'Seasonally adjusted.
"Converted Into US dollars at current market rates of exchange.
Approved
"'Weighting is based on each listed country's trade with 16 other industrialized
countries to reflect the competitive impact of exchange-rate variations
among the major currencies.
 Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150039-4
METAL PRICES
(Monthly Average Price)
COPPER
(Wire l or)
40l I --I -
Jul Aug
972 73 74
1501-- 1 -L-- -
Ju1l 73 ug
125 L-L
Jut
Cupper-LME (C per pound)
Copper-US (C per pound)
Lead-LME (C per pound)
Lead-US (C per pound)
Zinc-LME (C per pound)
Zinc-US (C per pound)
Tin-LME (C per pound)
Tin-US ((: per pound)
Steel scrap ($ per long ton)
Platinum ($ per troy ounce)
L Jul .J
74
30 Aug Week Ago Average AvAug 73
erage
73.9 80.9 87.3 94.1
85.6 85.6 85.6 59.5
24.4 24.7 24.8 19.7
24.5 24.5 24.5 16.5
44.3 47.9 50.0 41.2
35.0 35.0 34.8 20.3
423.1 403.5 386.8 226.1
432.0 424.0 426.6 243.6
111.8 112.2 126.7 55.1
N.A. 188.5 190.1 165.1
'Approximates world market price frequently used by major world producers and traders,
although only small quantities of these metals are actually traded on the LME.
"Producers' price, covers most primary metals sold in the United States.
f Quoted on New York market. tf Composite price for Chicago, Philadelphia, and Pittsburgh.
Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150039-4
LEAD
101 1 ]- -
Jul Aug
972 73 74
O
~- 100
rn
c
0
J
I-
a 7b
STEEL SCRAP
101 I I
Jul Aug
1972 73 74
PLATINUM
2511..._-----1
Jul Aug
 Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150039-4
AGRICULTURAL PRICES
(Monthly Average Price)
WHEAT
01" 1 La
Jul 972 73 74
SUGAR
SOYBEANS
01 1 -_l_-J
Jul 1972 73 74 Aug
COTTON
oJ L--I I
1972 73 748
FOOD INDEX*
0
0
200
J1972 73
Aug 0J g
74 1972 73 74
10o L___L I
Jul
1972 73
Aug
74
* This is a compiled index by the Economist
for 16 food commodities which enter nternationai
trade. Commodities are weighted by 3-year moving
averages of imports Into industrailzed countries.
COMMODITIES
30 Aug
Week Ago
Jul 74
Average
Aug 73
Average
Wheat-Kansas City #2 Hard Winter($ per bushel) 4.28
4.41
4.34
4.71
Corn-Chicago #2 Yellow ($ per bushel)
3.53
3.73
3.29
2.91
Soybeans-Chicago #1 Yellow ($ per bushel)
7.29
7.61
6.80
9.08
Sugar-World Raw New York #11 (0 per pound)
34.3
33.8
25.4
9.1
Cotton-Memphis 1'/,e ($ per pound)
0.5680
0.6600
CORN
Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150039-4