ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY

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Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
CIA-RDP85T00875R001500150035-8
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RIPPUB
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S
Document Page Count: 
15
Document Creation Date: 
December 22, 2016
Document Release Date: 
September 29, 2009
Sequence Number: 
35
Case Number: 
Publication Date: 
August 14, 1974
Content Type: 
REPORT
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Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875R001500150035-8 Secret ON FILE USDA RELEASE INSTRUCTIONS APPLY Economic Intelligence Weekly Secret CIA No. 8138/74 14 August 1974 Copy N2 179 Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875R001500150035-8 Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150035-8 Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150035-8 Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150035-8 Secret ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY 14 August 1974 25X1 Agricultural Prices Move Up; Prices of most US farm commodities have strengthened in the wake of crop losses and low world stocks. F------](See page 4.) appears willing. In India, improved rains have checked deterioration in the fall grain crop. Normal rains during the next two months are still needed. New Delhi is banking on another Soviet grain loan to help meet its food needs. Moscow now Bang!adesh officials continue to dramatize the severity of recent floods to support pleas for additional foreign assistance. Even if damage from the now receding waters proves only moderate, food stocks provide little safety margin. USSR: Dimmer Grain Prospects; Dry weather in July has lowered our estimate of Soviet grain output from 205 million to slightly under 200 million tons. (See page 1.) 25X1 SovietOff icials, after dragging their heels, now agree that a US agricultural team can tour the spring wheat areas in late August. China: Unfavorable Harvest Prospects; Scheduled grain imports for FY 1975 already are up 20% above FY 1974. (See page 2.) Canada: New Beef Restrictions; Recently announced quotas pose problems for US and Australian producers. (See page 3.) political events. The Italians have resumed dollar sales, averaging $50 million a day, to support the lira. Gold was fixed at $152.25 an ounce in London Monday, down slightly for the week. 25X1 25X6 Australia's Labor Government has been given broad powers over mineral and energy development policies under a bill passed last week by the joint session of the Australian Parliament. The legislation-rejected on three previous votes-is designed to further the government's policy of promoting Australian ownership and control of its natural resources. Canberra's toughening attitude toward foreign investment has already resulted in a sharp decline in new investment in the mining industry. Saudi Arabia has initiated a program to spread its rapidly mounting oil wealth among its 6 million people. (See page 7.) In Europe, the dollar strengthened last week, rising between 0.5% and 1.5% against the world's major currencies. Only minimal dollar intervention was neces- sary to smooth out the markets in the face of last week's Copper Prices in London reached a yearly low of 82 cents a pound on Friday. Japanese copper sales boosted LME copper stocks to a yearly high of over 50,001) tons. Prices Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150035-8 Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875R001500150035-8 Secret are likely to start back up in view of the continuing copper strike by some US firms and reports that Japanese sales have ended. Lead and zinc prices remained steady durin the week. The Dominican Republic, by applying for membership in the International Bauxite Association, hopes to strength- an its drive for increased taxes and royalties on its own bauxite exports. (See page 7.) A Reynolds Metal Company Subsidiary in Guyana is awaiting action by the government following a breakdown in negotiations over a proposed tax increase on bauxite, similar to the Jamaican formula. A cabinet meeting was to convene on Tuesday to discuss the possible introduction of legislation to impose Guyana's demands. PUBLICATIONS OF INTEREST Chile: The Junta Struggles for Economic Recovery (See page 8.) Recant Data Concerning Internal Economic Activities (See page A-1.) Recent Data Concerning External Economic Activities (See page A-2.) Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875R001500150035-8 Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150035-8 Secret ON FILE USDA RELEASE INSTRUCTIONS APPLY USSR: DIMMER GRAIN PROSPECTS Because of dry weather in July, we have reduced our estimate of the 1974 Soviet grain crop from 205 million tons to slightly less than 200 million tons. Even though the expected crop would represent the second largest in history, it would barely meet rising requirements. Crop Progress Rainfall - by far the most important short-run determinant of grain output - was abundant over most of the grain area from mid-April through June, promising a harvest even larger than the plan target of 205.6 million tons. In July, weather conditions turned sour in a large part of the grain belt. West of the Urals, with the start of the harvest, rains were heavy and accompanied by strong winds. East of the Urals, the rains failed over a wide area at a time when the grain had reached the critical heading stage. In the first half of July, scant rainfall and very high temperatures prevailed over about 10 million hectares of grain in Tselinograd and Pavlodar Oblasts in Kazakhstan and in Altay Kray in West Siberia. We estimate that the hot and dry conditions resulted in a loss of about 8 million tons of grain, primarily spring wheat. Citing widespread weather difficulties, Deputy Minister of Agriculture B. Runov told a group of USDA officials last week that this year's harvest would be "only average." By early August the harvest rate was substantially below last year's level. If nothing else, the wet and lodged crop west of the Urals will reduce the milling quality of the wheat. Reduced quality will especially hurt because we estimate that far less wheat will be produced this year - 85 million tons, compared with 110 million tons in 1973. Outlook for Imports The reduced output would fall at the lower end of the range of estimated Soviet domestic requirements and export commitments - 198 million to 211 million tons. The regime has the option of drawing down carryover stocks of 20 million to 30 million tons - an option made possible by the record harvest of 1973. At this stage, the milling quality of the carryover wheat is the key to Note: Comments and queries regarding the .Economic Intelligence Weekly are welcomed. Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150035-8 Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150035-8 prospects for Soviet imports in FY 1975. Another factor in Moscow's attitude toward grain imports is price. A number of Soviet agricultural officials have hinted over the past few years that corn and soybeans might be bought to support the livestock program if prices were right. But prices are still high on the world market - and presumably will stay up if US harvest prospects do not improve. China's 1974 grain crop appears unlikely to reach the record 250 million tons harvested last year. Even if the weather were unusually favorable for the rest of the year, the chances of output increasing as fast as population - by 2%, or 5 million tons - are small. Early-harvested grain crops - which normally account for 40% of gain output - were poor because of drought in the north and unseasonable frost in the south. Erratic spring rains, together with unusually low temperatures, have forced changes in acreage patterns that will adversely affect fall-harvested crops. Furthermore, the growth of domestic fertilizer production has slowed, and deliveries from Japan - China's major source of imported fertilizer - have been cut back. Grain imports, meanwhile, are increasing. Contracts for delivery of 9.6 million tons of grain in FY 1975 -- 20% more than in FY 1974 - have already been Chinese Imports of Grain Mi llion Tons FY 1974 FY 19751 Wheat Corn Total Wheat Corn Total Total 5.9 2.1 8.0 9.0 0.6 9.6 United States 3.1 1.7 4.8 2.7 0.1 2.8 Canada 1.6 .... 1.6 4.0 .... 4.0 Australia. 1.2 .... 1.2 1.6 .... 1.6 Argentina .... 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 1.1 Other .... .... .... 0.2 .... 0.2 2 Secret Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150035-8 Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875R001500150035-8 signed, and more purchases are likely. The US share of these purchases has declined as a result of Peking's dissatisfaction with US corn and of its deliberate policy of diversifying sources of supply. In the past year, China has concluded three-year agreements with Canada, Australia, and Argentina to provide more than 4 million tons of grain annually through 1976. The long-term program to end dependence on imported grain and chemical fertilizers - a program built around the purchase of 13 urea fertilizer complexes - will not help until near the end of the decade. In the interim, Chinese agricultural producL.n and the need for foreign grain will remain sensitive to weather conditions. Canadian quotas on beef and cattle imports threaten to hurt US and Australian sales and intensify market disruptions caused by EC and Jap- anese import bans. The quotas follow soon after Ottawa lifted the ban on imports from the United States- imposed because of possible contami- nation by DES, a growth hormone in cattle feed. The quotas, instituted as part of a program to protect Canadian pro- ducers, are for one year beginning 12 August. They restrict total imports to the 1969-73 average-126 million pounds of fresh and frozen beef and veal and 83,000 head of cattle, other than young animals bought for feed- ing. Canada is a major foreign market for US beef and cattle, accounting for $148 million in sales in 1973-50% of US beef exports and 80% of cattle exports. The US quota will be about 18 million pounds of fresh and frozen beef and veal and all 83,000 head of cattle. The quota and the short-lived DES import ban are expected to reduce US beef and cattle exports to Canada this year to about 60% of the 1973 level. Canadian Imports of Cattle and Beef and Veal 3 Secret Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875R001500150035-8 Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875R001500150035-8 Australia's quota of 47 million pounds ends its hopes for a sizable rise in deliveries to Canada. Australia had previously been stung when Japan, a major customer, prohibited beef imports through 1974. These developments could stimulate increased Australian exports to the United States and put pressure on beef prices later this year. New Zealand, the third largest beef exporter to Canada, has a quota 27% above its beef and veal sales to Canada in 1973. AGRICULTURAL PRICES MOVE UP Prices of most US farm commodities entering international trade have strengthened following several months of decline from record highs. Low world stocks, withholding of commodities by farmers, and speculative buying prompted by adverse weather are contributing to the pressure on supplies. Price increases since early June for wheat, corn, and soybeans reflect mainly market reaction to dry weather and crop losses in the United States and Canada. Prices will remain sensitive to crop production announcements, to developments in world livestock markets, and to Asian and Soviet import requirements. Booming demand for sugar in the face of tight supplies has intensified pressure on prices. Free market prices for raw sugar have almost doubled since January to a record high of about 30 cents per pound. Because of low world stocks, buyers are jittery about harvest prospects and are making precautionary purchases. Cotton prices, in contrast, have continued to decline since last winter's high of 80 cents per pound. This decline reflects forecasts of increased world production in 1974/75, importers' decisions to draw down their large stocks, and a depressed consumer market for textiles in most developed countries. 4 Secret Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875R001500150035-8 Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150035-8 Secret AGRICULTURAL PRICES WHEAT o Jul Jul 1972 73 74 SUGAR SOYBEANS o L Jul 1972 73 74 Lo-_1------ __ .-- t .. Jul Jul FOOD INDEX* O O 0 200 100 1._ l ? Jul 1972 73 74 This Is a compiled index by the Economist for 16 food commodities which enter international trade. Commodities are weighted by 3-year moving averages of Imports Into industralized countries. Frices in US $) COMMODITiES 12 Aug Week Ago Month Ago Yeai Ago Wheat-Kansas City #2 Hard Winter (bushel) 4.21 4.33 4.37 5.19 Corn-Chicago #2 Yellow (bushel) 3.43 3.52 3.22 3.38 Soybeins-Chicago #1 Yellow (bushel) 7.69 6.30 6.37 10.59 Sugar-World Raw New York #11 (pound) 0.2980 0.2925 0.2400 0.0905 Cotton-Memphis 1'/i'o' (pound) 0.51 c0 0.5375 0.5395 0.6275 Secret Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150035-8 Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150035-8 Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150035-8 Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875R001500150035-8 Secret Saudi Arabia: People to Share in Oil Wealth The Saudi council of ministers has decided on a series of actions to lower the cost of living and spread oil income among the people. Government salaries, including the military, are due for a substantial boost, to the benefit of a half million people. The price of domestic fue! will be reduced to the lowest level in the world; gasoline is already pegged at 28 cents per gallon. Housing will be subsidized; all Saudis will be eligible for interest-free, 15-year loans covering 70% of the cost. Electricity rates will be halved. Up to now, most of the 6 million Saudis have had little opportunity to share in their country's rapidly mounting wealth. Dominican Republic to Join Bauxite Group Santo Domingo has formally applied for membership in the International Bauxite Association, made up of seven bauxite-producing countries which account for 84% of US bauxite and alumina supplies. The Dominican Republic, the source of 4.5% of US supplies, hopes to strengthen its position in its current negotiation with an Alcoa subsidiary for increased taxes and royalties. At the same time, membership in the group will bring pressure on Santo Domingo to hold oat in the negotiate m for no less than the Jamaican tax increase formula. The move thus may complicate US efforts to persuade the government to restrain its demands. 7 Secret Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875R001500150035-8 Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150035-8 Secret Publication of Interest Chile: The Junta Struggles for Economic Recovery (ER IM 74-10, August 1974, The memorandum describes the efforts of Chile's military junta (a) to restore economic order, (b) to deal with an inflation that will exceed 300% in 1974, (c) to increase agricultural and copper production, and (d) to return Chile to a market economy. GDP will probably grow 6%-7% this year, and Chile's international payments position will be the best since 1970, as a result of record copper earnings. Full economic recovery and stabilization, however, appear to be several years away. a Secret Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150035-8 Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150035-8 INTERNAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS GNP' Censlunl Market Prices Average Annual Growth Rate Since Wl(LESAI.E PrtlClis Average Annual Industrial Growth note Since Latest Percent Change Iran) Previous 1 Year Previous Percent Chang-0 Latest from Previous 1 Year 3 Months Ouerter Ouster 1970 Eorher ouster Month Month 1970 Earlier Earlier United States 7411 I -0,3 1 3.8 -1,1 -1.2 United States Jul 74 2.7 9.3 25.1 34.2 Japan 741 -5.0 -3.6 -18.6 Japan Jun 74 1.3 11.2 35.3 11.2 West Germany 74 I 1.2 1.5 5.0 West Germany Jun 74 0.2 7.0 13.1 10.3 France 73 IV 1.8 5.7 7.3 France Jun 74 -1.0 12.8 34.3 13.0 United Kingdom 74 I - 3.5 - 4,4 -13.3 United Kingdom Jun 74 1,3 10.9 24.2 25.4 Italy 73 IV 1.9 5.3 7,7 Italy May 74 0.7 14,5 43.0 35.0 Canada 741 1.7 3.0 7.0 Canada May 74 0.8 11,2 23.5 30.4 Average Annual Growth Rate Since Average Annual Growth Rate Since Percent Change Percent Change Latest from Previous t Year 3 Months Latest from Previous I Year 3 Months Month Month 1970 Eorher Earlier" Month Month 1910 Earlier Earlier United States Jun 74 0 4.6 - 0.1 2.4 Unit ed States Jul, 74 1.0 0.1 11.1 11.7 Japan Jun 74 -2.5 6.8 -0.9 -7.1 Jap an May 74 0.3 11.3 23.1 15.7 West Germany May 74 1.1 3.5 0 -0.7 Wes t German y Jun 74 0.4 6.3 6.9 6.5 France May 74 2.4 8.1 2.4 -1.1 Fran ce Jun 74 1.1 8.0 13.8 16,9 United Kingdom May 74 -1.1 2.2 0.2 22.4 Unit ed Kingdo m May 74 1.4 10.5 16.0 25.3 Italy Jun 74 5.7 5.8 6.5 3.9 Italy Jun 74 1.3 9.5 16.6 16.9 Canada May 14 - 0.5 6.2 2.6 2.5 Can ada Jun 74 1.3 6.5 11.4 15.5 RE.TAII. SALES* Current Prices Average Annual Growth Rate Since Average Annual Growth Rate Since Percent Change Latest from Previous 1 Year 3 Months Percent Change Latest from Previous I Year 3 Months Month Month 1970 Earlier Earlier" Month Morih 1970 Earlier Earlier United States Jul 74 4.2 10.2 8.4 14.6 Unit ed States Jul 74 -0.1 6.7 5,4 9.5 Japan Mar74 -4.8 11.1 6.6 -1.8 Japa n Apr 74 -t).6 17.4 10.5 16.7 West Germany Mar74 -1.3 8.2 5.6 14.6 Wes t German y Apr74 C3 9.1 0.4 9.5 France Apr 74 -3.1 6.1 15.0 5.5 Fran ce Feb 74 -0.3 11.9 9.0 14.9 United Kingdom Mar 74 1.3 12.0 9.4 6.5 Unit ed Kingdo m Jun 74 - 0.6 8.1 0.8 8.3 Italy Dec 13 3.1 17.2 25.5 47.1 Italy Dec 73 2.6 21.2 17.9 22.1 Canada May 74 5.1 12.4 18.2 17.7 Cana da Jun 74 -2.0 13.0 11.2 21.2 1 Year 3 Months I Month Representative Rates Latest Date Earlier Earlier Earlier United States Dealer-placed finance paper Aug 7 11.43 8.50 9.00 9.00 Japan Call money Jul 31 13.25 7.50 12.00 12.63 West Germany Interbank loans(3Months) Aug 7 9.44 15.08 8.70 9.10 France Call money Jul 31 13.50 8.75 12.88 14.25 ll 'S d d United Kingdom Sterling interbank loan (3 ma) Aug 7 13.08 11.75 13.29 13.27 easona y a juste . "Average for latest 3 months compared Canada Finance paper Aug 7 11.63 7.50 11.15 11.05 with average for previous 3 months. Euro-Dollars Three-month deposits Aug 7 13.60 11.50 11.74 13.91 14 August 1974 Office of Economic Research/CIA Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150035-8 IXi'I UIS" I,o.b. Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150035-8 EXTERNAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS EXPORT PRICES United States Japan West Germany France United Kingdom Italy Canada IMP(1 PT S" 1.011. United States Japan West Germany France United Kingdom Italy Canada TRADE 13AI.ANCE" United States Japan West Germany France United Kingdom Italy Canada Million US $ Million US $ 1074 1013 Jun 74 8,357 40,008 32,110 Jun 74 4,841 24,020 10,890 Jun 74 0,320 42,780 29,813 Jun 74 4,058 22,210 10,918 Jut, 74 3,215 17,040 13,013 Jun 74 2,270 13,285 9,401 May 74 2,802 12,812 10,077 Percent change 46.1 47,5 43.5 31.3 25.2 41.3 27.1 Percent Chango 41.8 84.6 30.8 47.2 49.3 61.8 32.3 Jun 74 Jun 74 Jun 74 !-in 74 Jun 74 Jun 74 May 74 moron us S Million US $ 1914 1973 8,022 40,871 33,068 4,649 26,195 14,190 4,844 30,517 23,330 4,137 23,995 16,303 4,333 23,145 15,498 2,817 17,271 10,872 2,635 12,196 9,220 Million US $ 1974 1973 Jun 74 I -265 -263 I -948 Jun 74 1 -8 I -1,575 , 2,501 Jun 74 Jun 74 Jun 74 Jun 74 May 74 1,476 -81 -1.119 -547 167 12,280 -1,779 -6,100 -3,986 616 6,483 815 - 1,885 -1,271 858 Change B85 -4,075 5,785 -2,395 -4,215 -2,714 -240 BASIC BALANCE`" Current and Long-Term-Capital Transactions Latest Period Cumulative (Million US $I United States' Japan West Germany France United Kingdom Italy Canada Million US $ 1973 1972 741 2,065 2,065 -1,006 Jun 74 -1,206 -8,420 -4,373 Apr 74 860 3,253 917 73 IV -431 -2,471 -369 73 IV -1,394 -3,164 -1,954 7311 -336 639 971 741 -195 -195 -191 United States Japan West Germany France United Kingdom Italy Canada End of Billion US S Jun 1970 Earlier Jun 74 14.9 14.5 12.9 Jul 74 13.2 4.1 15.2 Jun 74 34.2 8.8 32.3 Jun 74 8.2 4.4 11.6 Jun 74 6.7 2.8 7.0 Jun 74 5.3 4.7 6.0 Jul 74 6.0 4.3 5.8 'Seasonally adjusted. "Converted Into US dollars at current market rates of exchange, 14August 1974 Change 3,071 -4,047 2,336 -2,102 -1,210 -332 -4 3 Months Earlier 14.6 12.7 32.9 8.1 6.4 6.7 6.2 United States Japan West Germany Franco United Kingdom Italy Canada EXPORT PRICES National Currency United States Japan West Germany France United Kingdom Italy Canada IMPORT PRICES National Currency United States Japan West Germany France United Kingdom Italy Canada Percent Chungu- Lutest from Previous Month Mantle Jun 74 I 3.1 1 Jun 74 Mny74 Mar 74 Mar 74 Jan 74 Apr 74 0.9 4.4 0.2 7.2 -1.2 3.2 1970 11.0 17.1 16.1 13.1 11.0 10.0 14.8 Average Annual Growth Rate Since Pncon Chongo Latest train Previous Month Month 1970 Jun 74 3.1 11.8 Jun 74 2.7 10.2 May 74 1.6 4.7 Mar 74 3.4 8.8 Mar 74 4.2 Jon74 4.9 Apr 74 2.7 Percent Change Latest from Previous Month Month Jun 74 i 0 I Jun 74 May 74 Mar 74 Mar 74 Jan 74 Apr 74 2.3 2.9 5.9 6.4 10.8 -1.5 EXCHANGE RATES Spot Rate As of 9 Aug 74 JapanlYen) West Germany 1Martk)cho France (Franc) (Food United Kingdom Sterringl Italy (Liral Canada loaner) US S Per Unit 0.0033 0.3865 0.2107 2.3720 0.0015 1.0238 Dec 86 19.75 53.74 4.36 -15.00 -4.18 10.99 1970 18.5 17.7 6.5 14.2 20.9 19.6 9.9 18 Dec 1971 1.76 24.56 7.01 -8.97 -10.81 2.61 19 Mar 1973 -13.12 9.15 - 4.40 -3.62 -13.33 2.62 United States Japan West Germany France United Kingdom Italy Canada Dec 86 -15.03 9.89 30.33 -17.76 -34.51 -25.90 8.25 Average Annual Growth !Iola Since I Year 3 Months Earlier Earlier i 28.0 , 14.7 36.1 30.6 12.8 19.4 19.1 43.0 29.7 96.7 8.7 49.6 9,8 /8.7 1 Your Earlier 28.0 44.5 14.9 20.2 26.4 31.3 38.2 11.8 10.9 12.5 3 Months Earlier 14.7 30.6 23.1 32.7 44.5 52.2 82.0 Average Annual Growth Rate Since 1 Year Earlier 47.8 83.2 25,5 52.1 60.9 65.5 27.8 18 Dec 1971 -5.76 -3.63 13.38 -4.38 -20.33 -24.57 1.65 19 Mar 1973 0.81 -15.43 8.36 -6.83 -5.96 -17.86 3.29 3 Moths Earlier 34.8 27.7 16.5 177.0 107.4 125.4 57.1 2 Aug 1974 -0.54 - 0.57 - 1.36 -0.52 -0.71 0.10 2 Aug 1974 0.27 -0.44 -0.04 -0.93 -0-20 -0.17 0.30 "'Weighting is based on each listed country's trod, with 18 other industrialized countries to reflect the competitive impact of exchange-rate variations among the major currencies. Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150035-8