ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00875R001500150014-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 19
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 29, 2009
• Sequence Number: 14
• Publication Date: March 28, 1974
• Content Type: REPORT

Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150014-1 1,4
Secret
Economic Intelligence Weekly
LCjrj C;Ipy
X31 I7, ti.
Secret
CIA No. 8027/74
28 March 1974
Copy N2 204
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SI?( 11 RI 'I'
Beginning with the next issue (3 April) the
Economic Intelligence Weekly will be
published on Wednesday.
Dollar Decline Likely to Continue Problems caused for the
European joint float.
Cash Purchase from West Germany Reflects Soviet Financial
Strength Moscow bypasses credit in arranging for billion-dollar steel
plant.
Japan Seeks More Grain from Non-US Suppliers Grain imports iron,
the United States, which jumped 60% in 1973, will stay about the
same in 1974.
Pa E
France Moves to Curb Trade Deficit Paris takes vigorous measures
to boost exports. 5
China Uses Credits to Finance Growing Imports Peking sheds
traditional reluctance to go into debt. 6
South Korea: Slowdown Ahead Higher oil bills and slack demand
for exports may halve last year's 17% growth rate. 6
EC Sets New Aariiultural Prices Major comprotaises on all sides
permit quick agreement on 1974/75 fare, price,,,. 8
British-French Cooperation on Telephone Switching Systems
US-Romanian Diesel Engine Venture
13
10 25X1
10
11
Note: Comments and queries regarding this publication are welcomed. They may be d:tccted to Mrs.
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Pa ie
11
II
11
EC Export Credit Agreement 12
Chile: Improved Balance of Payments 12
Higher Panama Canal Tolls Spark Protests 12
Summary of a Recent Publication
Comparative Indicators
Recent Data Concerning Internal and External
Economic Activity
'ncc oil situation is now being covorcd mainly in
International Oil Developments, published each
Friday morning.
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S1',(:IZI1'1'
ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY
Articles
DOLLAR DECLINE LIKELY TO CONTINUE
The dollar fell sharply during the last two weeks against all major
cur,.,acies, and a further drop seems likely before the trend is reversed.
By declining 4.5% against the mark and by I-1/2%% to 3% against other
major currencies, the dollar has essentially lost the remainder of the gains
made following the imposition of the Arab oil e.nbargo. Several factors
contributed to the dollar's decline:
? Speculation that Germany's February trade surplus would
be a record and lead to another mark revaluation. Bonn
apparently is withholding official announcement of the
surplus until the currency exchanges close on Friday. We
believe that the surplus will substantially exceed last
October's record $1.6 billion.
? A statement to the press by British Trade Secretary Peter
Shore tli it the United Kingdom was con.;idering new import
controls to reduce the record trade deficit expected in 1974.
(Such controls have now been ruled out.)
G The lifting of the Arab oil embargo, which is expected to
result in greatly increased US oil imports and a further
deterioration in the US trade account.
? The apparent absence of central bank intervention in recent
weeks to support the dollar, coupled with concern about
accelerating inflation in the United States.
As in the past, the dollar's decline was accompanied by internal
pressure on the European joint float. The mark -- traditionally favored by
speculators -- rose to the top of the European currency band, requiring
heavy Belgian and German intervention in the market. The upward
movement of the mark was aided by high German interest rates.
Continuing internal pressure among joint float currencies could force
a mark, and possibly guilder, revaluation or a devaluation of the Belgian
franc. The Belgians, concerned about the competitiveness of their exports,
do not want their currency to appreciate relative to the currencies of trading
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SII"("RI1" '
Percent Change In the Value of the US Dollar
Relative to Selected Foreign Currencies
Compared With January 2, 1973
10r-
~Clrnrrgo In the Trndo-Wofghted
Average Value of the Dollnr'J
J ir, inesc Yen
rte itch
Franc,
l i i i r l r r r I. r_JJ r r r L u ~_l JJ_J_ 1_~LI_11j
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ian '-Lb ' 0 15 77 71
Mar
1973 1974
partners outside the float. The Bundesbank seems determined to maintain
a tight money policy despite Minister of Finance Schmidt's concern with
rising unemployment and Germany's conlnlltment to thr currency band.
CASH PURCHASE FROM WEST GERMANY REFLECTS
SOVIET FINANCIAL STRENGTH
Moscow's decision last week to pay cash for West German steelmaking
equipment reflects brighter Soviet export prospects and :educe(l pressure
for Western credits.
On 21 March the USSR and a consortium of three West German firms
signed a contract for the first stage of construction of it $1 billion iron
ore pellet and steel plant at Kursk. Following preliminary agreement on
the project last December, negotiations stalled over the question of
financing.
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Moscow uncharacteristically dropped its demand for concessionary
terms, possibly to avoid a showdown that could endanger Soviet-West
German detente. But another factor was the more sanguine prospects for
the USSR's hard currency balance of payments. Although Soviet imports
of machinery and equipment will grow substantially in 1974, imports of
Western grain are expected to be half' or less of their 1973 level. Much
higher export earnings should move the trade account into balance, an
improvement of approximately $2 billion compared with 1973. Additional
revenues from invisibles and gold sales could provide the USSR wish a hard
currency surplus of as much as $1 billion in 1974. Exports and hard
currency surpluses promise to be even larger in 1975-76.
Sharp increases in world market prices for major Soviet exports --
crude oil, wood products, chemicals -- are the principal cause of the charge
in the trade outlook. Exports to the hard currency area should increase
by 35% per year in 1974-76. Supported by Soviet imports from the Middle
East under barter arrangements, hard currency earnings from oil exports
alone could rise to $3 billion in 1974, pushing total Soviet hard currency
exports to $6 billion -- more than double the i972 lev':d.
With hard currency earnings on the upswing, the USSR will be 1'ss
dependent on long-term credits for machinery imports and can avoid
increasing its already sizable debt burden. Moscow Will Continue to press
for long-term, low-interest credits -- especially for multibillion dollar
projects such as the LNG proposals. But the Soviets now Appear willing
and able to buy for cash when other considerations - economic and
political -- outweigh the advantages of credit.
JAPAN SEEKS MORE GRAIN FROM NON-US SUPPL.IERS
The expected 5% increase in Japanese imports of grain and soybeans
in 1974 will conic largely from non-US suppliers.
Grain imports from the United States, which jumped by 60% in 1973,
will increase only slightly this year. Declining purchases of US wheat are
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SE,,CRE']'
Japanese Imports of Grain and Soybeans
Wheat
Total
United States
Corn
Total
United States
Grain sorghums
Total
United States
Soybeans
Total
United States
1973
1974
1972 Estimated
Projected
5.1 5.4
5.5
2.5 3.5
3.C
6.1 7.7
8.0
3.4 6.5
7.0
3.5 3.7
4.3
2.0 2.7
2.8
3.4 3.6
3.7
3.1 3.2
3.3
expected to largely offset rising purchases of corn and grain sorghums.
Imports of US soybeans probably will increase about 3%, the same as in
1973.
Several developments that led to increased Japanese demand for grain
and soybeans in 1973 will not recur this year. Abnormally large imports
of feed grains were needed to replace rice, a major source of animal feed
until stocks ran out, and to accommodate a big increase in livestock
numbers. In addition, grain and soybeans were imported to build up stocks
in anticipation of shortages. Wheat stocks were raised from 50 days to 70
days of consumption and soybeans from 45 days to 60 days,
no1:withstanding the temporary embargo on US exports last summer.
The sharply higher demand in 1973, combined with crop shortfalls
experienced by other traditional suppliers, led to the surge in imports from
the United States. This year Australia will ship one million tons of wheat
and nearly one million tons of grain sorghums compared with only 235,000
tons and 500,000 tons, respectively, last year. Japanese corn imports from
Thailand, which totaled about 300,000 tons in 1973, are expected to mere
than double this year; imports of South African corn also will pick up.
Total grain imports from non-US suppliers probably will increase by 20%
Japan's recourse to other suppliers will ease pressure oil US wheat
supplies. Tokyo has agreed to halt buying until the 1974 crop is available.
Pressure on US feed grain supplies will continue. Already the largest buyer
of US feed grains, Japan will, increase its purchase s his year by an estimated
600,000 tons, or 7%.
25X1
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SI'CRE]'
FRANCE MOVES TO CURB TRADE DEFICIT
Paris last week revealed further plans to trim the large trade deficit
forecast for 1974-75 and to balance the trade account by 1976. The new
plans came hard on the feels of the announceinent of a sobering
$300 million trade deficit for February.
The measures establish an $835 million fund to help finance
investment in export industries, expand risk coverage under export insurance
guarantees, and raise guarantee ceilings for some countries, notably those
benefiting from higher oil reve;iues. Special efforts will be made to promote
exports to Indonesia, Nigeria, and Venezuela - non-Arab oil countries with
ambitious industrialization plans.
Paris has assumed a more aggressive posture since higher oil payments
threatened to turn a previously anticipated surplus into a $3.5 billion deficit
for 1974.
? In mid-January, France withdrew the franc from the
European joint float to protect its reserve holdings and to
improve its competitive trade position.
? It has pursued barter agreements with producing countries
to cover part of the increased oil bill. Agreements have been
signed with Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi; other swaps of
military and industrial equipment for oil are being negotiated
with Iran, Libya, Abu Dhabi, and Kuwait.
? In early March, Paris announced an extensive energy
development program to hold oil consumption at 1973 levels
indefinitely. The key to the program is accelerated
installation of nuclear capacity, which is to generate about
70% of France's electricity by 1985.
The export promotion schemes are unlikely to have an appreciable
impact on this year's trade balance and appear insufficient to restore
equilibrium by 1976, as planned. Export growth will be depressed by
reduced demand in other European countries, which account for 70% of
French sales. The 3% devaluation of the franc (on a trade-weighted basis)
in the first quarter will do little to improve France's competitive position,
and Paris will be vying with Tokyo, Bonn, and other capitals in closing
barter deals with oil-producing countries.
5
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CHINA USES CREDITS TO FINANCE GROWING IMPORTS*
Traditionally reluctant to incur foreign debt, China has been rapidly
expanding its use of short-term and medium-term credit to finance imports
from the non-Communist world.
Increased purchases of grain and machinery last year led to a trade
deficit with non-Communist countries of $400 million to $500 million.
Sizable deficits are expected to continue. China has signed grain contracts
for 1974-76 with Canada, Australia, and Argentina, and additional purchases
from the United States are likely. Deliveries on the "1.2 billion in contracts
for industrial plants signed in 1973 will gather momentum; a like volume
of new contracts is already under negotiation for 1974; and China's needs
for foreign technology and equipment will continue unabated over the next
several years.
China's drawings on foreign credits totaled about $550 million in 1973
and will reach about $1.4 billion in 1974. Even though the ratio of debt
service obligations to exports will rise sharply in 1974 and remain high,
the ratio will almost certainly remain within a manageable limit of 25%.
Continued rapid growth in export earnings - petroleum probably can
provide more than one-half billion dollars annually in a few years - will
help China pursue its present foreign trade policy without dangerously
drawing down reserves, now estimated at $1.5 billion.
If Peking further shifts its policy and follows the Soviet example of
seeking long-term credits and self-liquidating loans, even higher levels of
imports would be possible without greatly increasing annual debt service.
China so far has shown no disposition to follow Moscow's venturesome
example.
For further details, see CIA ER IR 74-7, China: Financing Capitalist 71?ede, March 1974,
SOUTH KOREA: SLOWDOWN AHEAD
Real GNP growth in South Korea "probably will slow to 6% to 8%
compared with the 17% increase of 1973, which had put South Korea
toward this front of the international GNP sweepstakes.
The chief cause of the slowdown will be slack foreign demand for
South Korean goods. The ROK is especially affected by the economic
climate in japan and the United States, which take 70% of its exports.
6
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(teal GNP
Annual Percentage Increase
Exports
Million US $
UNIIEO STATES
JAPAN
OTHER
Trade Balance
Million US $
Industrial Production
Annual Percentage Increase
Imports
Million US $
R UNITED STATES
JAPAN
OTHER
$2,178 x52,294
589
SOUTH KOREA
Selected Economic
Indicators
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Si CRE7'
Because cyclical factors and soaring oil bills will reduce economic growth
in most developed countries, South Korea's exports, by volume, in 1974
probably will increase by only 15%. This increase compares with a 90%
gain last year, when exports accounted for nearly all the growth in GNP.
Strong domestic demand will help ease the impact on industry. The
government estimates that industrial output will rise 15% this year compared
with 35% in 1973. Most industrial firms should be able to adjust to the
lower growth rate without difficulty; firms that borrowed heavily to expand
their capacity last year could face bankruptcy.
As for inflation, wholesale prices rose 15% during 1973 because of
runaway prices for imported foodstuffs and raw materials. Since December,
prices have risen another 20%, in part because of the trimming of price
controls. The rate of inflation should slow during the second half of 1974,
especially if world prices of fuels and foodstuffs level off.
Higher oil prices and slackening export growth will boost the current
account deficit to an estimated $1 billion in 1974, up from $340 million
in 1973. Because industry is a heavy user of petroleum products, South
Korea's oil import bill will increase by about $600 million - more than
for any other LDC except Brazil and India.
To offset the current account deficit, Seoul hopes to attract $1 billion
in long-term capital and substantially increase short-term borrowing, to $400
million. Korea will be aided in obtaining funds by the notable improvement
in its foreign debt position last year. Debt service payments equaled only
10% of export earnings in 1973 compared with 20% in 1971.
In surprisingly short order, EC agricultural ministers reached agreement
last week on Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) support prices for the
upcoming crop year.
A compromise was struck between countries such as the United
kingdom that are intent on holding down retail food prices and countries
such as France that want to curry favor with strong domestic farm
organizations. Fear that a stalemate would threaten the whole CAP structure
helped speed the key decision to raise farm prices by an average 8-1/2% --
less than Paris wanted but more than the EC Commission had recommended.
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S UIC 1Z 111" 1'
Selected Factors ie EC Grain Marketing
Prices
(US $ Per Ton)
19 March 1974
1973 Imports
CAP Support
Domestic
from the
United States
(1974/75 Crop Year)
Market
hnportst
(Thousand Tons)
Wheat (Durum)
221
290
300
2,100
Corn
132
156
145
10,000
11--rley
134
159
146
270
Because EC market prices on most farm products exceed the new
support prices, consumers will not immediately be affected. Imports of
agricultural goods, especially grains from the United States, will be able
to enter the EC without a levy so long as world prices remain at their
present level.
In the few cases where new support prices exceed current market
prices, deviations from EC policy were conceded. The United Kingdom and
Ireland, for example, are allowed to subsidize calf and pig farmers directly
rather than burden consumers with support price increases. To avoid a
reduction in the CAP support price for butter, Britain was authorized a
higher government subsidy than that allowed other members. Italy was
granted another year's special subsidy for olive oil.
In a conciliatory gesture to Paris, the ministerial council also adopted
a CAP program to encourage soybean production, which is currently
extremely small. The anticipated regulations are expected to take the form
of production subsidies rather than the traditional CAP import levies.
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British-French Cooperation on Telephone Switching Systems
Plessey Telecommunications of Britain and CIT/Alcatel of France have
agreed to jointly develop and manufacture digital telephone switching
systems for marketing in Western Europe and in the less developed countries.
The agreement, which stands as a challenge to the American-dominated ITT
on world export markets, has been hailed as the most significant
telecommunications venture since the formation of the Common Market.
Plessey estimates potential sales of digital switching centers at $1.2 billion
per year by 1980
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US-Romanian Diesel Engine '/enture
The Cummins [?ngine Company, a major US manufacturer of diesel
engines, expects to reach agreement soon with Romania on a joint venture
to build 17,000 engines a year at Romania's CIAT plant. Cummins would
supply licenses, technology, and certain components and receive one-third.)
ownership and a share in the profits from new markets. Cummins would
also buy a third of the engines for its overseas markets and various
components for use in its US and foreign plants.
Poland and the USSR are charging record prices in international
markets for urea. Poland will export 180,000 tons to India for $285 per
ton, more than four timts the $65 price Indio paid to Poland in early
1973. Poland also exported 50,000 tons to the Philippines for $250 per
ton and 10,000 tons to Thailand at a price of $310 per ton (f.o.b.). In
January the USSR sold 40,000 tons to Indonesia for $265 per ton,
compared with the price of $150 per ton charged four months earlier.
11
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EC Export Credit Agreement
The EC is nearing an accord that would set a minimum interest rate
of TA on export credits and establish limits on their duration. At present,
some governments subsidize exports by making up the difference between
the contracted and the market rate of i~iterest. West Germiny strongly
supports the EC proposal; France and Italy have been reluctant to go along.
Once EC members coordinate their positions they intend to ask other
principal e ,-porting countries, particularly the United States and Japan, to
adopt similar credit terms.
Chile: Improved Balance of Payments
Record copper exports and last week's rescheduling of $490 million
of the $641 million debt repayments due major Western creditors have
improved the outlook for Chile's 1974 balance of payments. High prices
and record output will raise copper exports to an estimated $1.6 billion.
The trade deficit now is expected to be only $200 million, despite food
and petroleum imports of $1.0 billion. Even with these improvements, the
balance-of-payments problem remains serious. Additional foreign credits will
be required to cover the deficit this yoar.
Higher Panama Canal Tolls Spark Protests
Several west coast Latin American countries, led by Peru, are vigorously
protesting possible increases in Panama Canal tolls. Representatives at a
recent meeting of the OAS Special Committee for Consultation and
Negotiations contended that a proposed 20% hike in charges would have
detrimental effects on key economic sectors. Forty percent of Peru's foreign
trade passes through the canal; the increase would probably add more than
a million dollars to an alnoady difficult balance-of-payments situation.
Publication of Interest
Growing Competition in the World Market for Uranium
Enrichment Services
(CIA ER I'; 74-6, March 1974,
This report assesses recent developments and prospects in the world
market for enriched uranium to fuel nuclear powerplants, with emphasis
on non-Communist countries. It reviews estimates of demand for enriched
uranium, summarizes changes in enrichment capacity, and considers whether
planned capacity will be able to satisfy growing requirements for uranium
enrichment services.
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 GNP"
Coos) lot Market Prices
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
RETAIL SALES"
Current Prices
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
united Kingdom
Italy
Canada
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Canada
Eui, -Dollars
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I'en.col Chaney
lalesl hoop Prevmus
Quarter Quarter
73 IV
73 IV
73 IV
73 111
73 III
73 I
'3 IV
28 March 1974
Office of Economic Research/CIA
INTERNAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS
0.4
1.4
0.1
0.9
1.3
0.8
2.8
1910
4.7
0.3
3.1
5.6
3.9
3.1
6.1
Percent Champ
lalesl from Previous
Month Month 197U
Feb 74 -0.6 4.8
Jan 74 1.3 8.9
Doc 73 0.9 4.4
Dec 73 -4.4 5.7
Jan 74 -6.7 0.1
Doc 73 - 7.5 4.4
Dec 73 -0.1 6.3
Percent Change
lalesl ruin Previous
Month Month 19111
Feb 74 - 0.7 9.8
Nov 73 3.4 14.6
Dec 73 0.5 7.8
Nov 73 -2.4 5.6
Nov 73 03 12 1
Aug 73 6.7 12.4
Doc 73 -0.9 10.6
Represenlatrve Rates
Primo finance paper
Call money
Interbank loans(Worths)
Call money
Local authority deposits
Finance paper
Three-month deposits
Averup! Annul
Growth (late Solon
I Year
E.alhel
4.11
7.3
3.4
0.1
6.11
5.2
7.2
CONSUMER PRICES
Avmnge Annual Averuj' Annual
Growth [late since Growth Rate Since
---- Ihn --
cool Change --
latest Iron Prewons
month Month 19111
Feb 74 1.3 5.6
Jan 74 4.3 10.2
Jan 74 0.7 6.2
Jan 74 1.7 7.1
Feb 74 1.7 9.5
Dec 73 1.4 7.7
Feb 74 1.0 5.8
I Year
[aihcr
1.6
10.8
6.2
2.1
-7.0
12.8
4.7
Average Annual
Growth Rate Since
I Year
Earlier
6.0
27.4
5.8
15.2
14.8
19.0
13.7
8 Mar
15 Mar
15 Mar
15 Mar
15 Mar
15 Mar
Pluwnus
Quarter
1.5
5.8
0.3
3.8
5.2
3.4
11.6
3 Mudhs
Earle.
-4.0
7.5
9.0
0
-17.7
22.3
9.9
3 Maulhs
Earlier"
- 3.4
32.0
7.6
20.1
21.9
5.0
9.3
I Year
Latest Date Earlier
15 Mar I 7.75 6.63
12.50 5.50
11.13 8.44
12.13 7.50
15.50 7.61
b.38 5.13
8.88 8.63
WHOLESALE PRICES
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
3 Months
Earlier
8.75
10.00
13.00
11.88
15.94
9.50
11.00
1 Month
Earlier
7.38
12.00
10.63
12.00
15.69
8.50
8.31
Avuralle Annual
Grnwih flat(! since
I'rncenl fhaugr ------ -----
lalesl Irani Prevmus
Month Month 19711
Fob 74 1.4 I 7.4
Full 14 s.8 11.3
Doc 73 0.9 5.3
Jan 74 5.3 10.0
Full 74 2.9 9.3
Nov 73 1.6 9.0
Doc 73 0.6 8.5
Percent Clumme
Latest from Previous
Month Month
Feb 74 1.2
Dec 73 0.1
Doc 73 0.9
Doc 73 5.0
Feb 74 0.5
Sop 73 1.4
Feb 74 0
19111
7.4
17.5
9.1
13.2
9.0
20.7
13.0
I Year
hu her
17.6
37.6
8.8
26.6
15.5
21.1
18.3
1 Year
[artier
10.1
23.1
7.4
10.3
13.2
12.5
9.6
Average Annual
Growth (late Since
1 Year
Earlier
6.1
16.7
0.2
9.7
3.6
23.3
11.6
"Seahonally adjusted.
-Average for latest 3 months compared
with average for previous 3 months.
3 Months
Eaihen
29.8
89.7
11.0
50.0
31.3
17.5
19.5
3 Months
Earlier
12.1
41.9
11.8
13.6
19.0
14.5
9.9
3 Months
Earlier
9.2
14.7
5.1
14.2
0.2
24.7
13.3
Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150014-1
 Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150014-1
EXTERNAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS
EXPORTS"
Iub
United States
Japan
West Germany
Franca
Uif iIaL' Kingdom
Italy
Canada
IMPORTS'
fob
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
Cunudalwe
latest Molllh --
_...._.._...... Million us S
Million US 3 1973 1972
Jan 74 I 7,110 70,790 49,221
Feb 74 3.623 35,989 27,910
Jan 74 7,014 67,643 46,725
Feb 14 3,412 36,671, 26,378
Jan 74 2,261) 2P,'I93 2,,809
tec 73 2,553 22,286 18,570
a, t 74 2,444 25,197 20,266
Latest Month
Million IIS $
Jan 74 6,470
Feb 74 4,036
Jan 74 4,907
Feb 74 3,714
Jan 74 3,132
Dec 73 2,973
Jan 74 2,226
TRADE BALANCE'
l.o.b /I oh.
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
I'un:eul
Change
43.8
2)1.9
44.8
1,9.1)
24.2
20.0
24.3
Percent
Chanec
24.3
69.5
35.9
39.7
37,6
44,4
23.6
Jan 74
Feb 74
Jan 74
Feb 74
Jan 74
Dec 73
Jan 74
73 IV
Feb 74
Dec 73
73 III
73 III
72 IV
73 III
BASIC BALANCE"
Current and Long-Term Capital Transactions
United States'
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
640
-414
2,027
-303
-852
-420
218
Cumulative
Million US s
1973 I11/]
69,076
32,314
51,644
35,272
33,873
24,033
23,504
3,675
15,999
1,402
-5,480
-2,548
1,892
55,553
19,003
37,990
25,250
24,619
17,196
18,051
-6,332 8,046
8,854 -5,178
8,735 7,264
1,129 273
-1,749 -3.731
1,374 -3,922
1,414 478
Million US S 1973
I 200 1,186
1,670 -9,702
193
- 1,482
-521
800
238
1,950
- 2,139
1,840
N.A.
267
1972
-9,838
2,137
4.506
- 202
-1,252
2,983
574
Chan
11,839
-616
- 1,838
- 587
N.A.
- 308
Latest Month
End of Billion US S Jut 1970
Jan 74 14.6
Feb 74 11.9
Jan 74 32.2
Feb 74 7.5
Feb 74 6.0
Jan 74 6.0
Feb 74 6.2
16.3
4.1
8.8
4.4
2.8
4.7
4.3
1 Year
Father
13.1
19.1
23.7
10.6
5.9
5.8
6.2
'Seasonally adjusted.
"Converted into US dollars at current market rates of exchange.
28 Marco 1974
3 Mmttlis
Earber
14.4
13.2
35.0
8.6
6.6
6.2
EXPORT PRICES
11SS
United Status
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
11 it Iy
Canada
EXPORT PRICES
National Currency
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
It..iy
Canada
IMPORT PRICES
National Ccrroi:r.y
United ot, as
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
Avenole Aueual
(inlwih Hate Since
I'urcenl Change
Latest from 14eviow, I Yeal 3 Munihs
Mondt Month Illlll Luber Luhur
Jan 74 11.0 10.2 26.6 21.5
Nov 73 -0.8 13.2 27.4 11.6
Ouc 73 -0.0 12.4 25.7 18.3
Oct 73 2.6 15.9 31.9 15.7
Doc 73 0.1 8.7 17.3 12.4
Sep 73 3.4 11.2 22.3 51.7
Nov 73 4.9 9.5 22.5 42.9
1'cu.enl Change -
Latest Inuo Ptovunis
Month Month 19111
Jun 74 0.0 10.2
Nov 73 3.6 4.8
Dec 73 2.1 2.4
Oct 73 1.8 6.6
Dec 73 3.1 9.8
Sep 73 08 7.7
Nov 71 I 4.6 8.0
I'clcent hhange
Latest Irons Plevinus
Aver,me Annual
Glowlll Hale Slott!
1 Yen
[mhel
26.6
14.9
4.3
10.7
18.8
18.7
24.5
3 Months
Lill hel
27.5
34.1
17.6
34.9
334
21.4
40.1
Ave, age Annual
Growth Hale Since
I Yon
[Jr her
34.4
19.8
13.8
14.3
43.1
34.2
13.6
Month Month 19111
Jan 74 3.7 14.3
Nov 73 3.7 4.6
Dec 73 4.7 3.3
Oct 73 -1.5 5.3
Dec 73 5.2 1)1.4
Sep 73 0 13.2
Nov 73 0.3 5.5
EXCHANGE RATES Spot Rate
As of 12 March 74
Japanohinl)
West German 1Uosdle
V Mamrcl
France eland IPuund
United Kingdom SIerlulgl
Italy ILral
Canada (Dollar)
Us3
Per Lne
0.00:161
0.39060
0.2086,1
2.34050
0.00160
1.02980
Dec 66
30.84
55.37
3.32
-16.13
0.12
11.64
TRADE-WEIGHTED
As of 22 March 74
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
18 Uec
1971
11.18
25.88
5.94
-10.17
-6.80
3.21
19 Mal
197"1
-5.07
10.31
-5.35
-4.90
-9.44
3.22
Dec 66
-17.13
19.40
32.38
-18.75
_3 5.43
-20.81
8.53
10 Dec
1971
- 7.70
5.54
15.33
-5.34
-21.18
-19.53
1.92
19 Mar
1973
-0.98
-6.43
10.30
- 7.78
-6.79
-12.67
3.56
3 Months
[ar her
31.0
54.2
35.2
53.1
44.1
8.1
15 Mar
1974
1.86
3.50
1.07
0.32
2.36
0.20
15 Mar
1974
- 1.19
1.39
1.89
-1.05
- 1.08
0.50
-0.13
"'Weighting is based on each listed country's trade with 18 other industrialized
countries to reflect the competitive impact of exchaege?rate variations
among the major currencies.
Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150014-1