ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00875R001500150007-9
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 29, 2009
• Sequence Number: 7
• Publication Date: February 14, 1974
• Content Type: REPORT

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Secret
il-
Economic Intelligence Weekly
LQAtt GL)py
Return to DSH
1NIUJ7, Hq.
Secret
CIA No. 7926/74
14 February 1974
N?_ 199
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1'a
US-Soviet Trade in 1973 Trade doubled in 1973 with US exports of
grain and machinery leading the way.
US-Hungarian Trade: Much Talk, Little Action Trade would pick
up in long run if ihutga,.v gets MEN status and E:xi,nbank financing.
Argentina's Wheat Situation Traditional importers of' A,geutine
wheat will find supplies short.
Damage to Soviet Winter Grains The extent of winterkill will
depend on February and March weather.
5
World Rice Situation Tight supplies and high prices will continue at
least until fall crops become available.
6
Soviet Bank Established in Vienna
8
Czechoslovakia to Westernize Auto Industry
8
8
9 25X1
Publ' ration of Interest
Summary of a Recent Publication
Comparative Indicators
Recent Data Concerning Domestic and External
Economic Activity
The oil situation is now being covered mainly in
international Oil Developments, published each
Friday morning.
Note: Coninients and queries r::eardine this nuhlicatinn are welcomed. They may be directed to Mrs.
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US-Soviet trade hit a record level in 1973, according to figures just
released. Both US exports and imports more than doubled. The Soviet trade
deficit of nearly $1 billion was the largest ever sustained with any trading
partner. Trade will decline in 1974 because US exports of grain are expected
to fall sharply.
US exports
542
1,187
US imports
96
214
US balance
446
973
? US exports of grain -- almost all wheat and corn -- were
valued at $837 million, up from $364 million in 1972.
i US exports of machinery and equipment, led by automobile-
manufacturing equipment and pipelaying tractors, more than
tripled to a level of $204 million.
s US imports of oil (largely fuel oil) grew more than ninefold
to $76 million.
0 US imports of platinum and platinum group metals increased
to $76 million, nearly double the 1972 level.
? US imports of chrome ore declined to only $6 million, the
lowest level in many years.
US exports would have grown even more if some grain shipments had
not been postponed and if deliveries of equipment for the Karma truck
plant and other projects had not been delayed. US imports, on the other
hand, were larger than expected because of the sharp increase in oil
deliveries.
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US grain exports for 1974 are expected to fall to between $300 million
and $350 million -- only about 401X% of the 1973 level. Machinery and
equipment exports will rise to at least $300 million and perhaps to as much
as $400 million. Taking into account other exports such as steels, chemicals,
wood pulp, and synthetic fibers, we believe that total US sales will equal
about $800 million. US imports probably will increase, particularly if Soviet
oil deliveries to the United States are stepped up. As a result. the Soviet
trade deficit with the United States should be halved in 1974.
US-HUNGARIAN TRADE: MUCH TALK, LITTLE ACTION*
US-I-Iungarian trade amounted to about $50 million in 1973 - far
below US trade with Poland, Romania, or Yugoslavia. Little increase is
expected in 1974. In the longer run, large gains in trade might be generated
by providing Hungary with MFN status and Eximbank credits and by
responding to Hungarian overtures for economic cooperation.
US exports
US imports
US trade balance
9.3
28.3
27.9
22.6
33.0
2.1
6.2
7.8
12.7
16.4
7.2
22.1
20.1
9.9
16.6
US-Hungarian trade languishes despite Budapest's relatively liberal trade
policies and the flurry of high-level US-Hungarian exchanges in 1972-73.
Hungary has the only viable economic reform program in Eastern Europe
(aside from Yugoslavia's) and has pioneered new forms of financing
East-West trade. Secretary Rogers' visit to Hungary in July 1972 was
followed in 1973 by the visit to the United States of Deputy Premier Valyi,
the signing of a Property Rights Settlement, and a stopover in Budapest
by Commerce Secretary Dent.
Trade suffers from high tariffs on both sides. Hungarian goods are
denied MFN status, and US products are subject to the highest levies raider
Hungary's tariff system. The Hungarians claim that mutual tariff reductions
* This is the fifth in a series of articles on current developments and prospects fc, US economic
relations with the East European countries.
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would boost their imports from the United States to more than
$100 million annually. Budapest has directec' practically all its hard
currency purchases to traditional West European suppliers - notably West
Germany and Austria - in part because they offer medium-term credits.
If Washington extends Eximbank credits, US-1-lungaria n trade should expand
substantially, following the Romanian and Polish examples.
Long-run prospects for US sales are promising. Budapest already has
presented a long list of possible US-1-lungarian trade opportunities: a
cellulose plant, leather-processing facilities, a resort hotel chain, equipment
for the Adriatic oil pipeline, automation technology, and expansion of the
production of plastics, aluminum, copper, electronic components, and
medical instruments. Concrete negotiations have not begun on these
proposals.
In the nieantime, trade in 1974 will rise slowly. US exports still will
consist mainly of agricultural products; soybeans alone made up more than
one-half of US sales in the first nine months of 1973. Largest non-food
exports are tractors, planters, and gas compressors. Hungary's most
successful exports to the United States have been canned hams and light
bulbs.
ARGENTINA'S WHEAT SITUATION
Official Argentine forecasts place the 1973/74 wheat crop at about
6.5 million tons. with 2.3 million tons available for export. Crop estimates
appear to have been inflated for domestic political reasons. We believe
output is unlikely to exceed 5.6 million tons, because of a drop in the
area sown and adverse weather. Some 1.2 million tons should be available
for export. At this level, traditional importers of Argentine wheat may find
themselves forced to buy on the open market, particularly in the United
States, Canada, and Australia.
Brazil, which normally imports about I million, tons from Argentina,
will probably be left out in the cold. Deliveries to Brazil last year were
270,000 tons below commitments. Shipments remaining on the 1972/73
contract with Brazil, together with commitments made to other countries,
already exceed I million ton,.
Argentina's wheat production also suffers from institutional problems
such as rigorous price controls, a cornerstone of Peron's economic policy.
Besides discouraging planting last year, low ceiling prices led to widespread
smuggling to neighboring countries where prices are higher. This year,
incentives to smuggle wheat will be even greater as shortages in border
countries drive black market prices to higher levels.
4
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History of Winterkill
in the Soviet Union
Million Hectares
10
Area Sown "'ten
The loss in Soviet winter
grains to winterkill is likely to
match or exceed the average of
201%? of sown area of the last
ten years. Given reasonable
weather from here on, the
reseeding of damaged areas to
spring grains may yet produce a
normal 1974 grain crop. Nevcr-
thelcss, since reseeding is cen-
tered on feed grains, the bread-
grain harvest would still fall
below last year's level.
Last fall the Soviet Union
planted about 37 million hec-
tares of winter grains, slightly
above plan and roughly equal
to the average sown area in
1968-72. As in past years,
about two-thirds was seeded in
winter wheat, the remainder in
rye and barley. A wet fall
delayed sowing operations in
some area, and an early cold
spell over most of the European
USSR slowed the development
and reduced the hardiness of
0 1 11111111111. 1111 1
1958 60 68 70 74
*Sown In the prdceding fall for harvest In l e given year,
"Also Includes same fall sown grains used is gr',en
forage crops for livestock In the spring. v
Area o: Winter Grains Lost as a Percent
of Totul Area Sow' to Winter Grains
40
01 1 I I I
1988 eo
52632 2.74
L'I I I L I I .I j
70
L
73
the grain.
The snow cover needed to
insulate the plants from killing
air temperatures was thin or
absent over most of the area
through January. An unusual
thaw in late December fol-
lowed by a sudden cold spell in
mid-January damaged sowings in the northeastern Ukraine, the Central Black
Earth Region, and the Lower Volga. The extent of the damage will depend on
the weather in February and March, a period when dangerous thawing and
refreezing may occur.
5
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Last year's low rate of winterkill (6%) was a key factor in the bumper wheat
harvest. Winter grains have a special importance in the USSR. Although
normally accounting for less than one-fourth of total harvested area, they
furnish about one-third of total grain prod'ccion and almost half of the
breadgrain crop (wheat and rye). On the sown area that survives the winter,
yields are less variably; than for the principal spring grains; the yields of
surviving winter wheat average almost twice those of spring wheat.
WORLD RICE SITUATION
Tight supplies and higher prices for rice will further SC1UCCZC the
undernourished rice-consuming nations at least until the fall crops become
available. Although rice exports in 1974 are expected to be 10%-l 5% above
last year's drought-reduced level, demand is pushing up prices for spring
shipments. World prices have risen by one-half since October and are now
nearly three times the level of a year ago.
World rice output is expected to exceed 300 million tons in the crop
year ending 31 July, compared with 290 million last year. Most of the
increase in India, Bangladesh, Taiwan, and the Philippines will be consumed
domestically. But output gains in some of the major rice exporting countries
should permit 1974 world exports of between 7.2 million and 7.5 million
tons, compar,d with 6.4 million last year. Exports from Thailand, Burma,
Italy, and Egypt will account for most of the increase.
Thailand alone may account for one-half of the increase in exports.
Last year, Thailand cut its exports by 60% because of a drop in production
and low carryover stocks. With an improved crop this winter, the
government estimates that 1974 exports will increase to 1.2 million tons
from 880,000 last year. The government, after a year of domestic shortages
and reduced exports, only began issuing price quotations on this year's crop
in mid-January, two months later than usual. This export estimate probably
is conservative; exports may well reach 1.5 million tons.
Burma and Italy have lifted export bans as their new crops have become
available. Burma may use some of its rice to bargain for oil imports, and
Italy is holding out for high prices and selling in small ,amounts.
6
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Total
7,956
8,300
6,445
7,200
- 7,500
Australia
186
172
190
230
Brazil
129
149
125
0
Burma
800
510
100
300
China
900
800
900
900
Egypt
515
456
350
500
Italy
438
428
200
500
Japan
900
200
650
380
Pakistan
467
300
700
600
Thailand
1,576
2,076
880
1,200
- 1,500
United States
1,415
2,034
1,950
2,000
Other
630
1,175
400
600
1. Forecast, based mainly on information from US :ice specialists, who touted Asia
in September-October 1973, and from reccr. agricultural attache rcnorts/
Rice:Trends in Export Prices 1971- Jan. 1974
US $ Per Ton
100
Jan. Apr. Jul. Oct.
1971
United States*
Thailand***
World Exports of Milled Rice
Jan. Apr. Jul. Oct. Jan. Apr. Jul. Oct. Jan.
1972 1973 1874
*Average price for the month in New Orleans.
**Thailand did not quote prices from 7 March 1973 until January 1974.
7
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Demand continues strong. Middle Eastern mid African countries, which
bought increased amounts of US rice in 1973 because of the Thai ban
on exports, are still in the market. Indonesia, the Philippines, and Sri Lanka
also are looking for large amounts. Consumer nations will no, find the
amounts they are seeking before the next crop is harvested late in 1974.
S-)me importing nations may fight high rice prices by shifting to substitute
grains, such as wheat, to fill requirements. Such action would case the
pressure on rice prices, at the same time aggravating an already tight wheat
market.
Notes
Soviet Bank Established in Vienna
Donaubank A. G., the USSR's latest addition to its chain of banks
in the West, will begin operations in Vienna on I April with a capitalization
of about $5 million. The bank will specialize in financing transactions
between Austria and the USSR and other CEMA countries. Although a
few Soviets will occupy the top posts, Donaubank will be staffed mainly
by Austrian nationals. Besides Donaubank, Soviet banks in the West include
Moscow Narodny Bank in London (established in 1916) with branches in
Beirut (1963) and Singapore (1971); Banque Commerciale pour L'Eur,pe
du Nord in Paris (1921); the Russo-Iranian Bank in Tehran (1923); Wozchod
1-landelsbank in Zurich (1966); and Ost-West Handelsbank in Frankfurt
(1971). New York, Montreal, and Luxembourg have been identified as
possible locations for new banks or branch offices in the Soviet overseas
system.
Czechoslovakia to Westernize Auto Industry 25X1
Czec;ioslovakia has allocated $1.8 billion to modernize and expand
its automotive industry. Under the program, production probably will reach
about 300,000 cars a year in the late I 970s, nearly twice the present level.
Car design will be tailored to Western tastes; most of the increased output
is intended for hard currency markets, principally in Western Europe.
Western, especially US, technology and equipment will be used extensively.
General Motors is watching for .n opportunity to assist, while the US
machine tool industry anticipates sizable contracts.
8
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The Economic Situation in South Vietnam, January 1974
(CIA ER IR. 74-1, January 1974,
This report reviews the performance of South Vietnam's economy
during 1973. It highlights the continued stagnation of industry, the sharp
increase in consumer pria;s, and the decline in the volume of economic
assistance and imports. Developments in January 1974 include (a) continued
inflation, (b) a sharp decline in black market prices, and (c) a government
move toward a unified exchange rate system.
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DOMESTIC ECONOMIC INDICATORS
GNP'
WHOLESALE PRICES
Constant Market Prices
Aver ego Annual
Growth Ilnte Since
Industrial
Percent Change
talent Irnm Previous I Year I'revi nos
Latest
flintier Ouarter 1 !170 Earlier Qua let
Munch
United States
73
111
5.0
5.7
3.7
United States
Doc 73
Japan
73
111
0.5
10.0
2.0
Japan
Jun 74
West Germany
73 III
3.3
5.3
U.S
West Germany
Doc 73
France
73 II
6.2
8.7
2.9
France
Nov 73
United Kingdom
73
111
4.5
11.3
3.9
United Kingdom
Doc 73
Italy
73
1
3.1
5.2
3.4
Italy
Nov 73
Canada
7 3
111
5.7
6.9
1.7
Canada
Nov 73
Average Annual
Growth Rate Since
Percent Change
talent Irnm Previous 1 Year 3 Morphs
Month Month 1970 Earlier Earlier''
United States
Doc. 73
-0.2
5.6
5.4
1.3
Japan
Dec 73
-2.0
8.7
11.9
13.3
West Germany
Oct 73
-1.1
3.8
6.5
7.7
Frar'ce
Nov 73
1.5
7.3
7.4
-2.6
Unl ad Kingdom
Nov 73
0.4
3.5
4.1
1.6
(trty
Dec 73
-7.5
4.4
12.8
22.3
uanada
Oct 73
1.8
6.4
7.5
-4.4
RETAIL SALES-
Current Prices Average Annual
Growth Rate Since
Percent Change
Latest train Previous I Year 3 Months
Mouth Month 1910 Earlier Earlier"
United States Jan 74
2.5
10.4
5.9
0.8
Japan Sep 73
4.8
13.9
25.3
26.0
West Gsimany
Oct 73
4.1
9.1
9.2
1.2
France
Oct 73
2.2
6.5
12.5
3.1
United Kingdom
Nov 73
0.7
12.1
14.8
21.9
Italy
Aug 73
0.7
12.4
19.0
5.0
Canada
Nov 73
0.3
10.1
10.5
8.0
United States
Representative Rates
Prime finance paper
Latest
25 Jan
Pate
8.00
Japan
Call money
18 Jan
11.50
West Germany
Interbank loans (3 Months)
25 Jan
11.63
France
Call money
1 Feb
14.00
United Kingdom
Local authority deposits
1 Feb
16.13
Canada
Finance paper
?5 Jan
8.75
Euro-Dollars
Three-month deposits 1 Feb
9.00
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
Percent Change
Latest roan Previous
Month Month
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
I Year
Earlier
5.75
5.12
8.00
7.22
6.66
5.25
7.38
11.19
Average Annual
Grnwth (late Since
Percent Change
Irnm Pniwnus I Year
Mnnllt 1970 Earlier
2.7 6.6 15.0
5.5 10.4 34.0
0.9 5.3 8.8
3.3 8.6 19.9
1.2 8.0 10.2
1.6 9.0 21.1
1.1 10.2 24 ,0
I'i heat Chang
Latest train Previous
Doc 73
Doc 73
Doc 73
Dec 73
Doc 73
Doc 73
Dec 73
Jan 74
Oct 73
Nov 73
Nov 73
Dec 73
Aug 73
Doc 73
-0.5
-0.1
2.5
-0.4
-0.2
1.1
3.0
3 Months
Lather
32.0
114,0
I I_ 0
27.4
15.0
17.5
6.1
Average Annual
Growth Palo since
1970
5.2
9.1
6.2
6.7
P9
7.7
5.6
I Year
Earlier
8.9
19.1
7.9
8.5
10.6
12.5
9.1
3 Months
Earlier
9.5
21.8
12.4
10.9
14.8
14.5
6.7
Average Annual
Growth Rate Since
1970
7.2
18.2
8.9
11.9
9.6
20.8
13.0
I Year
Earlier
5.4
22.7
4.4
5.2
3.8
23.4
11.7
15.50 ??Awnp~ for 61biN'9 months I omp~nd
3 Months
Earlier
7.9
15.0
-1.6
6.6
U.9
28.5
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EXTERNAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS
EXPORTS"
Intl
Mdlum (15 S . 1'nn:r!nt
Million (IS S 1973 1911 ,bump'
United States
Doc 13
0,930
70,79(1
49,221
43.11
Japan
Doc 73
3,412
36,192
27,910
29.11
West Germany
Doc 73
5,430
07,755
40,727
450
Franco
Dec 73
3,170
36,030
20,308
39.5
United Kingdom
Dec 73
2,304
211,461
22,875
74 4
Italy
Nov 73
2,004
19,031
16,549
19.8
Canada
Dec. 73
2,206
24,829
211,175
23,1
IMPORTS,
fob.
Cumulative
Million US S Percent
Million US S 1973 1912 Change
United States
Dec 73
5,900
69,070
55,553 24.3
Japan
Dec 73
3,404
32.455
19,003 I 711.9
West Germany
Doc 73
4,520
51,727
37,991
36.2
France
Doc 73
2,972
35,428
25.208
40.2
United Kingdom
Doc 13
3,154
33,946
24,027
37.8
Italy
Nov 13
1,981
21,973
15,296
43.6
Canada
Dec 13
2,189 23,341
18,835
23.9
TRADE BALANCE'
f.a.b./f.o.b.
Million US S 1973 1972 Chomp
United States
Dec 73
940
1,714
-6,332
8,046
Japan
Doc 73
-53
3,737
8,854
-5.146
West Germany
Dec 73
910
16,028
8,735
7,293
France
Dec 73
205
1,408
1,129
278
United Kingdom
Dec 13
-770
-5.485
-1.751
-3,734
Italy
Nov 73
23
-2,143
1,253
-3,395
Canada
Dec 73
17
1.487
1.340
147
BASIC BALANCE-
Current and Long?Term?Capilal Transactions
1972 Change
United States'
13 III
2,54n
990
-8.400
9.390
Japan
Dec 73
-1,191
-9,770
2,184
-11.954
West Germany
Oct 73
925
3,445
3,867
-421
France
73 II
17
-559
-202
-357
United Kingdom
73 III
- 522
-1,844
-1,347
- 497
Italy
12 l
boo
N.A.
2,983
NA.
Canada
73 II
93
-151
434
- 585
United States
End of
Dec 73
8rlhan US S
14.4
Jun 1970
16.3
I Year
Earlier
13.2
3 Mcdlhs
Easier
14.0
Japan
Jan 74
11.6
41
17.9
14.0
West Germany
Dec 73
33.0
8.8
23.8
35.3
France
Jan 74
8.3
4.4
10.0
10.1
United Kingdom
Jan 14
6.2
2.8
5.7
6.8
Italy
Dec 73
6.4
4.7
6.1
6.5
Canada Jan 74
5.9
4.3
6.0
5.8
14 Feb 1914.
EXPORT PRICES
Average Annual
Iii twth I(alu Since
Latest hum Previous I Yuan 3 Months
Mouth Meath 19711 falhur [arlur
United Status
Dcc
73
4.1
103
20.7
44.7
Japan
Oct
73
1.8
130
25.9
28.8
West Germany
Oct
73
26
15.7
39.1
2.6
France
Sep
73
1.0
15.5
35.2
115
United Kingdom
Nov 73
0G
0.9
111.6
2.3
Italy J
Sop
73
2.3
11.3
22.4
:17.11
Canada
Oct
73
1.7
7.9
19.5
31L8
EXPORT PRICES
National Currency Average Annual
Growth [laic Since
Ihu r.e nt Change
Lateu1 from Previous I Year 3 Merrill,
Month Month 19111 Earlier father
United States
Dec 73
10.3
20.7
44.7
Japan
OLI 73
3.0
I1.;
31.5
West Gernla v
Oct 73
1.0
4.6
4.5
France
Sop 13
6.3
14.3
12.4
United Kingdo
Nov 73
9.0
10.4
2(1.5
Italy
Sop 73
7.7
18.7
21.4
Canada Oct 73
6.7
21.3
30.3
IMPORT PRICES
Average Annual
National Currency
Growth Hate Since
Percent Change -- ----
latest hum Pnwnus I Year 3 Willis
Month Month
1970 Earlier tartar
United States
Dec 73
.
4.7
13,5
32.5
65.3
Japan
Oct 73
2.4
3.5
16.8
29.4
West Germany
Oct 73
1.9
0.7
4.3
16.8
France
Sep 7J
4.0
6.0
11.9
451
United Kingdom
Nov 73
4.2.
151
30.3
52.1
Italy
Sep 73
0
13 2 1
34.2
44.1
Canada Oct 73 I'D
5.5 I
13.9
9.2
EXCHANGE RATES Spot Rate
Percent Change hem
us S 8 Dec 19 Mal ( Feb
iet Unit Dec 66 1971 1973 1914
Japan(Yen)
l
euische
0.0034
22.40
4.00
-11.20
0.30
West German
y
Mark)
0.3630
44.39
16.98
2.51
-0.38
France IF,ancl
P
0.1994
-1.24
1
27
-9
53
-0
60
1
uwud
United Kingdom SIerlmill
2.2350
-19.91
.
-14.22
.
-9.18
.
-1.32
Italy (Loa)
0.0015
- 5.3 7
-11.92
-14.41
-0.53
Canada (Dollar)
1.0191
10.48
2.13
2.14
0.65
TRADE-WEIGH1ED EXCHANGE RATES'"
As of 8 Feb 74 Percent Change from
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
18 Dec 19 Mar I Feb
Dec 66 1971 1973 1974
-13.11
-3.86
2.18
-0.11
13.73
0.08
-11.76
0.36
29.23
12.37
7.38
-0.13
-17.94
-4.59
-7.05
-0,30
-26.44
-22.22
-7.84
-1.28
-21.59
--20.33
-13.49
-0.21
8:7;1 2.11 3.73 0.75
countries to renuch the competitive, impact of exchange-rate. variations
among the major, currencies,
Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150007-9