ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00875R001500150005-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: December 22, 2016
• Document Release Date: September 28, 2009
• Sequence Number: 5
• Publication Date: January 31, 1974
• Content Type: REPORT

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return to DSO
INI loll Itq.
Economic Intelligence Weekly
lp
ecret
CIA No. 7924/74
31 January 1974
Copy N2 198
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Bauxite Exporters Get Set to Cooperate Their chances to boost
bauxite prices seem good if they can maintain a united front.
Chinese Problems in Getting Japanese Fertilizer Japan, faced with a
petroleum shortage, will supply the PRC with less chemical fertilizer
than anticipated.
Dollars Stay Abroad Foreign private demand has absorbed most of
the dollars sold by the Japanese and French central banks since last
July
Strong Demand for US Soybeans Disappointing prospects for the
1974 Peruvian anchovy catch and Brazilian soybean harvest sustain
demand for US soybeans.
US-Czechoslovak Trade: Mixed Picture US agricultural sales dom-
inated the tripling of trade between 1971 and 1973
First US Sale of Advanced Navigation Equipment to China
US-Bulgaria: Kaiser Sees Green Light
India Keeps the Lid on Private US Investment
Chilean Consumer Gets It Again
Comparative Indicators
Page
Recent Data Concerning Domestic and External Al
Economic Activity
The oil situation is now being Co, ?'red mainly in
International Oil Developments, published each
Friday morning.
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ECONOMIC NTELL IGENCE WEEKLY
Articles
BAUXITE EXPORTERS GET SET TO COOPERATE
Six major bauxite-exporting countries plan to meet in late February
to form an international association similar to OPEC, the oil exporters'
organization. The meeting in Conakry, Guinea, will bring together
representatives of Australia, Jamaica, Guinea, Guyana, Surinam, and
Yugoslavia.
The world bauxite industry has many characteristics that would
facilitate producer cooperation in raising prices.
? The six countries have 85% of the Free World's known
reserves that are commercially exploitable at today's prices
and technology.
? They account for three-quarters of the Free World's bauxite
production and four-fifths of exports.
? The United States gets 78% of its bauxite supply from these
countries - 50% from Jamaica alone.
? Together, the five leading Free World aluminum producers --
Japan, Canada, the United States, West Germany, and
Norway - obtain about 80% (32 million tons) of their
bauxite supplies from these countries.
? Exploitation of the vast deposits of other aluminum-bearing
ores outsi-le the six countries would boost the raw material
costs of aluminum smelters by two-thirds and raise aluminum
production costs by an estimated 25%.
? Although other aluminum-bearing ores are easy to mine by
strip methods, ecological problems would arise and it would
take an estimated siR years to design and build a plant to
treat the ores.
The impetus for cooperation among the exporting countries stems from
the recent stability in bauxite prices at a time when the prices of many
other raw materials have skyrocketed. The United States, for example, has
continued to pay from $10 to $12 per ton for imported bauxite since
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The Five Largest
Imports2 1972
(Minion
Supply Sources for the
Five Major Importers
Bauxite Importers)
Metric Tons)
(Percent)
Total 32.3
Total
00.0
United States 17.9
Jamaica
36.0
Japan
5.0
Australia
21.2
Canada
4.1
Surinam
13.6
West Germany
Guyana
8.3
Norway
2.3
Indonesia
3.7
Dominican Republic
3
6
1.
These countries account for 721i% of the Free World's
M
l
i
.
7
2
primary aluminum capacity.
2. Including alumina, in bauxite equivalents.
a
ays
a
Sierra Leone
.
1.8
Haiti
1.8
Guinea
1.3
Yugoslavia
1.2
Other
4.8
1969. The supplier countries vary in the intensity of their demands. A
couple - Jamaica and Guyana -?? probably are prepared to press hard,
Jamaica perhaps to the point of threatening nationalization of company
properties. Others - Australia, Guinea, and Surinam -- would be more
restrained, especially since they need foreign capital to exploit their large
reserves.
Lined up against the exporters are six vertically integrated,
multinational aluminum companies. They own -- wholly or partly - nearly
all Free World bauxite mines, about 75%, of Free World primary aluminum
capacity, and a substantial share of Free World aluminum-fabricating
facilities.
In the near term, we believe that the exports: would be unable to
raise bauxite prices substantially.
? Free World bauxite supplies seem plentiful: for example, in
the United States, the strategic stockpile contains almost a
year's supply.
? Woi.J-wide constraints on aluminum output to conserve
energy will hurt bauxite demand during the next couple of
years.
About 30% of company bauxite-producing capacity still
remains outside the six countries and can be drawn on in
an em. rgency.
2
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Principal Bauxite Holdings of the Major
Aluminum Companies
Primary Other
Aluminum Company of Canada Jamaica Australia
France
Malaysia
Brazil
Guinea
A'"minum Company of America Surinam Jamaica
Australia
Dominican
Republic
United States
Guinea
Reynolds Metals Company Jamaica United States
Guyana
Haiti
Ghana
Kaiser Aluminum and Chemical Jamaica India
Corporation Ghana
Pechiney Compagnie de Produits France Guinea
Chimique et Electrometal- Greece
lurgiques
Schweizerisches Aluminum Sierra Australia
A. G. (Alusuisse) Leone France
Italy
? The four smaller countries depend heavily on export earnings
from bauxite, and their foreign exchange reserves are
inadequate to support a prolonged disruption of exports.
Over the longer term, the exporting countries probably could push
bauxite costs up to the point - perhaps two-thirds above the present level --
that would trigger a company shift to alternative sources of
aluminum-bearing ores. The strong long-run demand for aluminum will tend
to lower company resistance to exporter demands, especially since the share
of total aluminum costs represented by bauxite will remain small. Moreover,
increasing Communist country requirements for Free World bauxite will
further reinforce the exporters' bargaining power. 25X1
3
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China, the world's largest buyer of nitrogen fertilizer, imported
one-third of its requirements in 1973, with Japan the leading supplier.
In response to the tightening of world supplies and soaring prices, China
has raised the 1974 production target of the fertilizer industry and stepped
up the construction of new fertilizer capacity. At the same time, the PRC
has laid the groundwork for a major long-term expansion in its
petrochemical industry. In 1973, China contracted for an unprecedented
$1 billion of foreign petrochemical equipment. Included are 1 I of the
world's largest urea plants with a capacity five times China's present urea
capacity. These plants will not begin production until 1976.
China: Sources of Nitrogen Fertilizer
Nutrient Weight in Million Tons
Imports
Year
Total
Domestic
Production
Total
From Japan
1970
2.98
1.50
1.48
0.75 (51 %)
1971
3.37
1.89
1.48
0.95 (64%)
1912
3.85
2.31
1.54
1.15(75%)
1973
4.16
2.78
1.38
0.93 (67`70)
In spite of the decline expected in imports, China's total supply of
nitrogenous fertilizer should rise appreciably in 1974, though not as much
as the planners had an,icipated or agriculture could profitably absorb.
China's potential for increasing crude oil exports to Japan appears to be
giving the PRC a preferred position in securing Japanese fertilizers. The
PRC may also receive increased amounts of fertilizer from such secondary
suppliers as Kuwait, Romania, and Venezuela.
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Foreign private demand has absorbed most of the dollars sold by the
Japanese and French central banks since last July. By mid-January, official
Japanese and French reserves together had dropped by $7 billion, partly
because of exchange market intervention. During the same period, US
short-term liabilities to foreigners, rather than decreasing, increased slightly,
indicating that few of the dollars sold by Japan and France returned to
the United States. Moreover, US liabilities do not appear to have declined
appreciably as a result of the further $1 billion drop in French and Japanese
reserves that followed the float of the franc on 19 January.
Most of the dollars sold by foreign central banks probably have gone
into private holdings in the Eurodollar market, which offers higher interest
rates than does the United States. This probably accounts for the recent
sharp decline in interest rates for short-term Eurodollar deposits. These
holdings remain a US liability. Nonetheless, talk of a dollar glut has given
way to the realization that dollars will be required to pay burgeoning oil
import bills.
STRONG DEMAND FOR US SOYBEANS
US soybean exports in 1974 should better last year's recordbreaking
level. The outlook for world, soybean demand is much less certain because
of the impact of the oil crisis on economic growth and trade. Nevertheless,
failure of both Peruvian fishmeal production and Brazilian soybean
production to meet earlier domestic forecasts should insure continuation
of a strong r,;: rket for US soybeans at prices at least equal to average 1973
prices.
A recent Peruvian survey of the fishing grounds found anchovy stocks
to be only one-third normal amounts. Despite the return of an optimum
ocean environment nearly one year ago, the fish population has recovered
much more slowly than expected. At present rates, anchovy stocks may
not reach norm. 1 levels until 1976, if ever. Depending on Peruvian
government limits to be set next March, the 1974 catch could total
2 million to 4 million tons, down sharply from the 7 million to 8 millior.
tons previously expected. At best, fishmeal production could reach 800,000
tons, double last year's depressed output but far below normal levels. If
Peru decides to rebuild its depleted stocks, exports will recover even less.
Brazilian competition in soybean markets may not be as strong as had
been anticipated by some soybean traders. Brazil's 1974 soybean crop is
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now estimated at about 6 million tons, about I million tons below trade
Forecasts prevailing a few months ago. Even though production will exceed
the 4.8 million - ton crop of 1973, high prices for competing crops and
seed shortages prevented bean plantings from expanding as inuch as
expected. This year's exports should tc,tal about 4.5 million tons, nearly
a million tons above last year's I,,vel.
US-CZECHOSLOVAK TRADE: MIXED PICTURE*
US agricultural exports boosted trade turnover with Czechoslovakia
to about $170 million in 1973, double the 1972 and more than three times
the 1971 level. But US agricultural exports -- and total US-Czechoslovak
trade -- probably will not increase much this year.
Year
Total
US
Exports
US
Imports
US
Balance
1965
39.7
19.3
20.4
-1.1
1970
50.7
27.2
23.5
3.7
1971
50.8
29.0
21.8
7.2
1972
89.1
62.9
26.2
36.7
1973 (nine months)
128.4
97.3
31.i
66.2
Almost 901/o of US sales to Czechoslovakia were farm products -
two-thirds soybeans, the remainder cattle hides -- compared with 701% in
1972. Higher world prices for agricultural commodities were responsible
for much of the increase in the value of exports; second, the rise in the
dollar value of the Czech crown inflated total trade by perhaps one-fifth.
A good 1973 Czech harvest and probable increases in Soviet grain deliveries
should hold clown Prague's agricultural expenditures in the United States
this year.
For a number of years, Czechoslovakia has been window shopping for
machinery in the United States' few contracts have resulted. Czech
* This is the third in a series of articles on current developments and prospects for US economic
relations with the East European countries
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non-agricultural imports have been mainly paper products and small items
of equipment such as office machines and measuring instruments.
Czech sales to the United States - aimost totally restricted io
consumer goods such as shoes, glassware, and furniture -- have grown slowly.
In 1974, Prague plans to increase its imports of machinery and
equipment from the West. Czech industry, which long ago lost its enviable
reputation for quality and technological leadership, especially needs
petrochemical technology and electronic equipment. Large purchases from
the United States would require more progress in current political
negotiations. The major issues under discussion are financial counter
claims - $72 million :n US property nationalized by Prag:e after the "-var
and $70 million in Czech gold held by the United States. More than one
Czech official has suggested that the value of the gold would be spent on
TTC.
7
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First US Sale of Advanced Navigation Equipment to China
The Unitcd States has made its first sale of' inertial navigation systems
to th,, PRC. Peking will install the Litton LTN-51 system -- one of the
best on the market today -- aboard four of the Boeing 707s it plans to
use for international flights. The other six Boeing 707s purchased in 1972
will use conventional navigation systems
US-Bulgaria: Kaiser Sees Green Light
Kaiser Industries and the Bulgarian Ministry of Foreign Trade
concluded a memorandum of understanding on industrial and economic
cooperation on 26 January. Party First Secretary Zhivkov reportedly told
the Americans that they now have a priority position to participate in
projects worth as much as $17 billion to $20 billion during a 20-year
period. According to the memorandum, Kaiser will study a number of'
projects, including a 12-million-ton steel complex, a 2-million-ton cement
plant, and possibly a 150,000-ton aluminum combine. Kaiser agreed to seek
financing for the projects and to be repaid largely in products.
India Keeps the Lid on Private US Investment
Re' ent proposals by both Gillette and Burroughs for investing in India
apparently have been rebuffed. Gillette proposed to produce razcr blades
on a large scale, to export from 80% to 100'7r, 01' its o' tput, and to provide
the capital, the know-how, and the export market. The Gillette proposal
foundered over the Indian requirement for an equity position that would
have given India operating control over the organization.
Chilean Consumer Gets It Again
Increases in world petroleum prices are adding to the problems of the
Chilean consumer, already suffering under the junta's austerity program.
Chileans are now paying prices 170% higher than last week's for regular
gasoline, 400% higher for liquefied gas, and 550'/o higher for kerosene. The
8
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the poor are particularly hard hit since kerosene is their primary cooking
and heating fuel. The rise in fuel prices has already resulted in increases
in bus and taxi fares of more than 100% and is threatening a crisis in
domestic transportation
9
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DOMESTIC ECONOMIC INDICATORS
GNP"
CunstarI Markus Prices
Average Annual
Growth note Since
WHOLESALE PRICES
Industrial
Averagu Annual
Glaw1h Hale Since
I'nicent Chnngu
Latest train Previous 1 Year Previous
Percent Change
latest Irani Previous I Year :t Manna
Quarter Quarter 19111 [Bill-it Cuellar
Month Month 19711 Ear her Earlier
United States
73 III
0.9
5.0
5,7
3.7
United States
Doc 73
0.0
15.0
32.0
Japan
73 111
0.5
8.5
10.0
2.0
Japan
Doc 73
0.9
29.0
01.0
West Germany
73 III
0.1
3.3
5,3
0.5
West Germany
Nov 73
5.1
8.2
8.3
France
73 II
0.7
0.2
8.7
2.9
France
Nov 73
n.6
19.9
27.4
United Kingdom
73 III
0.9
4.5
11.3
3.9
United Kingdom
Doc 73
8.9
10.2
15.8
Italy
73 I
0.8
3.1
5.2
3.4
Italy
Nov 73
9.0
21.1
17.5
Canada
73 111
0.4
5.7
0.9
1.7
Canada
Nov 73
10.2
24.8
6.1
Avera
Growth
ge Annual
Halo Since
Average Annual
Growth Rate Since
Percent Change
Latest train Previous I
Year 3
Months
I'en:ont Change
latest Item Previous
1101; 3 Months
Month Month 1970 E
arlier Ea
rher
Month Month
19711 Earlier Earlier
United States
Dec 73 1
- 0.2 I
5.6
5.4
1.3
Unite
d States
Doc
73
0.7
5.2
8.9
9.5
Ja
an
Nov 73
1.2
1
7.7
15.3
Japa
n
Doc
73
3.6
9.1
19.1
21.0
p
West German
Oct 73
-1.1
0.5
7.7
West
Germany
Nov 73
1.3
8.1
7.4
9.5
y
France
Nov 73
1.5
7,4
-
2.0
Franc
e
Doc
73
0.0
0.7
8.5
10.9
United Kingdom
Nov 73
0.4
4.1
1.6
Unite
d Kingdo
m
Doc
73
0.7
8.9
10.6
14.8
Italy
Nov 73
10.1
2
0.2
3
5.3
Italy
Dec
73
1.7
7.7
12.3
13.4
Canada
Sep 73
1.8
8.3
-3.4
Cana
da
Dec
73 I
0.6
5.9 9.1 0.7
RETAIL SALES'
Avera
Current Prices
Growth
ge Annual
Rate Since
Average Annual
Growth Hale Since
Percent Change
Latest rem Previous 1
Year 3
Months
Percent Change
Latest Item Previous
I Year 3 Months
Month Month 1970 E
arlier Ea
rlier"
Month Month
1970 Earlier Earlier
United States
Dec 73
-1.3
10.2
7.8
4.1
Unite
d States
Dec731
0.6 I
7.2
4.9
3.7
Japan
Sep 73
4.0
13.9
25.3
26.0
Japa
n
Oct 73
-0.1
18.2
22.7
15.0
West Germany
Oil 73
4.1
9.1
9.2
1.2
West
German
y
Oct 73
-0 5
8.3
-0.8
-8.9
France
Oct 73
2.2
8.5
12.5
3.1
Franc
e
Oct 73
-0.9
11.8
5.8
0
United Kingdom
Aug 73
0.7
11.1
12.1
14.8
Unite
d Kingdo
m
Doc 73
-0.2
9.6
3.8
-8.9
Italy
Aug 73
6.7
12.4
19.0
5.0
Italy
Jun 73
2.8
20.8
22.2
26.5
Canada
Nov 73
0.3
10.1
10.5
8.0
Cana
da
Doc 73
3.0
13.0 11.? 2.9
United States
Repre;eniatsve Rates
Prime finance paper
Latest
25 Jan
Date
8.00
IYear
Earlier
5.75
3 Months
Earlier
7.88
1 Month
Earlier
8.00
Japan
Cell money
18 Jan
11.50
5.12
8.75
12.00
West Germany
Interbank loans (3 Months)
25 Jan
11.83
8.00
14.25
13,00
France
United Kingdom
Call money
Local authority deposits
25 Jan
25 Jan
15.00
15.50
7.50
5.74
11.25
12.91
11.88
16.91
'Seasonally adjusted,
'*Average for tdtsst 3 months compared
Canada
Finance paper
25 Jan
8.75
5.25
9.00
9.50
with average for previous 3 months.
Euro-Dollars
Three-month deposits
25 Jan 9.19 8.44 9.38 10.13
31 Jan 74
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EXTERNAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS
EXPORTS'
1 (0)
Cumulative
Million US S Vincent
Million US $ 1973 1972 Change
Unitod Slates
Doc 73
0,030
70,790
49,221
43.8
Japan
Doc 73
3,412
36,937
27,078
20.9
West Germany
Nov 73
6,751
02,405
42,409
46.9
France
Dec 73
3,170
30,030
20,390
39.6
United Kingdom
Doc 73
2,384
211,401
22,076
24 4
Italy
Nov 73
2,004
10,831
10,549
19.8
Canada
Oct 73
2,149
20,233110,420
23.2
IMPORTS"
(0b.
ercen
Million US S 1973 1912 Changa
United States
Doc 73
5,990
69,070
55,553
24.3
Japan
Doc 73
3,464
31,910
18,995
68.0
West Germany
Nov 73
4,972
47,270
34,465
37.2
France
Doc 73
2,972
35,426
25,268
40.2
United Kingdom
Doc 73
3,154
33,940
24,627
37.0
Italy
Nov 73
1,981
21,973
15,296
43.6
Canada
Oct 73
2,100
19,020
15,483
23.0
TRADE BALANCE'
f.o.b./I.o.b.
Million US S 1973 1972 Change
United States
Dec 73
940
1,714
-0.332
8,046
Japan
Doc 73
-53
4,019
8,883
-4,804
West Germany
Nov 73
1,779
15,130
8,004
7,132
France
Doc 73
205
1,408
1,129
278
United Kingdom
Dec 73
- 770
-5,485
-1.751
-3,734
Italy
Nov 73
23
-2,143
1.253
-3,395
Canada
Oct 73
43
1,213
957
257
BASIC
Current and Long Torm Capital Transactions
Latest Period Cumulal,ue IMillron US S)
Million US S 1973 1972 Change
United States'
73 111
2,54n
990
-8,400
9,390
Japan
Dec 73
-1,191
-9,662
2,184
-11,846
West Germany
Oct 73
925
3,445
3,867
-421
France
73 II
17
-559
-202
-357
United Kingdom
73 III
-522
-1,844
-1,347
- 497
Italy
72 IV
800
N.A.
2,983
N.A.
Canada
73 11
93
-151
434
-585
I Year 3 Modths
End of Billion US $ Jun 1970 Earlier Earlier
United States
Dec 73
14.4
16.3
13.2
14.0
Japan
Dec 73
12.2
4.1
18.4
14.8
West Germany
Oct 73
39.8
8.8
23.9
42.4
France
Nov 73
8.8
4.4
10.0
11.2
United Kingdom
Dec 73
6.5
2.8
5.8
6.4
Italy
Oct 73
6.2
4.7
6.3
5.7
Canada
Dec 73
5.8
4.3
6.1
5.5
'Seasonally adjusted.
"Converted Into US dollar) at current market rates of exchange.
EXPORT PRICES
IISS Avnragu Annu
Growth (late S
al
ince
Percent Change-....----......_._
_..
Latest from I'reunns I Year
Month Month 1970 father
3 Montle
tailor
Unitod Slates
Nov 73
1.4
9.2
21.5
111.11
Japal,
Oct 73
1.8
13.0
25.0
28.11
West Germany
Oct 73
2.0
15.5
38 2
-5.2
France
Sop 73
1.0
15.5
35.2
1 I.5
United Kingdom
Sell 73
-1.8
P.0
12.8
-8.1
Italy
Aug 73
2.4
10.7
18.4
40.5
Canada
EXPORT PRICES
Sup 73
2.2
7.5
17.0
33.5
National Currency Average Annu
Growth (late S
al
ncu
I'r.n:ent Change -----------
--'-_
Latest (rum Pruvima I Year
Month Month I!I111 ,rlie,
3 Munlhs
Earlier
United States
Nov '13
1.4
9.2
215
18.8
Japan
Oct 73
2.0
3.8
11.1
31.5
West Germany
Oct 73
1.7
1.8
4.6
4.5
France
Sell 73
2.7
0.3
14.3
12.4
United Kingdo,
Sap 73
0.5
9.1
12.8
15.5
Italy
Aug 71
0.8
7.6
16.7
30.0
Canada
IMPORT PRICES
National Currency
Sop 73
2.2
0.3
A
Gr
103
verage Annu
owth Rate Si
33.5
al
nce
Percent Change
Latest from Previous I Year
Month Month 1910 Earlier
3 Mmrihs
Earlier
United States
Nov 73
3.4
12.3
26.9
33.5
Japan
Oct 73
2.4
3.5
16.8
29.4
West Germany
Oct 73
1.9
0.7
4.3
16.8
France
Sop 73
4.0
6.0
11.9
45.1
United Kingdom
Sep 73
5.5
14.8
41.5
65.2
Italy
Aag 73
I 3.5
13.4
34.2
72.6
Canada
Sep 73
0.7
5.4
12.5
11.5
EXCHANGE RATES Spot Rate
As of 25 Jan 74
US S 18 Dec 19 Mar
18 Jan
Per Unit Dec 66 1971 1973
1974
Japanlvenl
West Germany 10eui lche
Mark
00033
0.3519
21.17
39.98
2.96
13.41
-12.10
-0.82
0.30
-1.04
France IFrancl Ipound
0.1908
-5.50
-3.10
-13.43
- 5.4 5
United Kingdom Sterling)
2.2025
-21.07
-15.47
-10.50
0.71
Italy final
0.0015
-6.93
-13.37
-15.82
-4.18
Canada IDolar)
1.0111
9.62
1.33
1.34
0.37
As of 25 Jan 74
18 Dec 19 Mar 18 Jan
Dec 66 1971 1973 1974
United States
-11.53
-2.32
4.31
0.18
Japan
13.32
-0.31
-12.14
0.46
West Germany
28.61
11.79
6.82
0.55
France
-20.02
-6.63
- 9.10
-4.65
United Kingdom
-36.02
-21.84
- 7.49
1.39
Italy
-20.51
-19.27
-12.43
-2.85
Canada
8.37
1.75
3.37
0.45
"'Weighting Is heated on each listed country's trade with 16 other industrialized
countries to reflect the competitive impact of exchange-rate variations
among the major currencies.-
Approved For Release 2009/09/29: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500150005-1
Cu mulanve
blest Month
-"`----- Million US $ P
t