ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00875R001500140038-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 22
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 21, 2006
• Sequence Number: 38
• Publication Date: November 1, 1973
• Content Type: REPORT

 Approved For Release 2006/04/19 : CIA-RDP85T00875R001500140038-6
Secret
Economic Intelligence Weekly
AGENCY A! .
Secret
CIA No. 7826/73
1 November 1973
Copy N2 263
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CONTENTS
Pi
Notes
China's First Direct Purchase of US Oil Equipment
EC Rigidity Stalls Multilateral Trade Negotiations
Economic Impact of the War on Israel Costs cif the fighting to date
have not been particularly great, but uncertainties concerning the
tinning and nature of a settlement could adversely affect the longer
term prospects for the economy.
Syria: Costs of the Conflict and Prospects for Recovery Large
financial commitments from other Arab countries will help Syria
offset the costs of the recent conflict and get its economy back to
normal.
Availability of Arab. Oil Arab oil cutbacks and embargoes are
continuing, but the cease-fire will allow some eastern Mediterranean
pipeline deliveries to resume.
e
Worldwide Grain Developments 6
Chile's Copper Prospects Copper production will play a key role in
economic recovery. 7
The United Kingdom: Cooling Off Flagging consumer demand,
budget cuts, and restrictive monetary measures portend slower
economic growth.
Comparative Indicators
Recent Data Concerning Domestic and External
Economic Activity Inside Back Cover
Appendix. Arithmetic of the Recent
Oil Price Flikes Inside Back Cover
Note: Comments and queries on the contents of this publication are welcomed. They may be directed
to
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ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY
Notes
China's First Direct Purchase of US Oil Equipment
China has contracted with a US firm for $5.6 million worth of
petroleum exploration equipment. This is the first direct sale; earlier sales 25X1
have been made through third parties. Additional sales for oil recover
technology and drill bits are expected.
EC Rigidity Stalls Multilateral Trade Negotiations
The first meeting of the GATT Trade Negotiations Committee (TNC)
ended ir, deadlock last week because of EC insistence that agricultural
discussions be isolated from all other issues. To let preliminary work begin,
the United States had been willing to sidestep the issue by allowing the
compromise resolution worked out at Tokyo to serve as a guideline for
all working groups. Widely supported compromise proposals by Japan and
the TNC Chairman also foundered when EC representatives were unable
to take a stand even after repeated telephone consultations with Paris. The
EC's inability to modify its negotiating positions without recourse to home
capitals will be a continuing problem during the long negotiations ahead.
I I
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Economic Impact of the War on Israel
The effects of' the recent fighting on the Israeli economy have been
limited. Israeli statements, for example, that the cost of the war has been
$250 million a day and $2 billion in the first week of' the war seem
exaggerated. The Israelis appear to have lumped together the direct and
indirect military costs of the war, the economic costs (including the value
of lost output), and loss of' foreign exchange earnings.
In the civilian economy, Israeli officials estimate the costs of lost
production. to be about $14 million a day, or nearly $300 million for the
three weeks of the war. Some production cuts were felt immediately after
the war started, when mobilization and the loss of Arab workers had reduced
the civilian labor force of 1.2 million by roughly 25%. The impact of this
reduction, however, was later partly offset by the hiring of youths and
women and the employment of foreign volunteers. Reductions in demand
for non-essential goods and services and a drop in civilian construction also
contributed to the drop in output.
Israel was in a sound financial position at the outbreak of hostilities.
Despite a large deficit in its goods and services account, the
balance-ot=payments position was favorable. Foreign exchange reserves
totaled close to $1.5 billion in September. Even with the war, the balance
of payments should end the year in surplus. The deterioration in the trade
and services account, excluding direct military imports, will be more than
compensated by an increase in contributions from abroad. The government
expects to raise almost $2.0 billion from foreign sources -$750 million from
a new development bond issue, and the remainder from world Jewry. Israel
also expects to raise about $600 million domestically by issuing both
compulsory and voluntary bonds and by cutting the development budget.
2
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.Is 14"("R E,1'
It is difficult to estimate the longer term impact of the war on Israel's
economy. It is not clear how fast civilian production will resume or how
domestic demand may react to the settlement terms. The economic boom
following the six-clay war in 1967 came at a time when the economy was
depressed. In contrast, the Israeli economy in early October 1973 was
operating at near-capacity and experiencing rapid inflation. If protracted
negotiations should preclude a rapid demobilization, output would continue
at depressed levels and severe domestic belt-tightening would become
necessary.
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Syrian Facilities Damaged In Recent Hostilities
G
I Powerplant i Pactory TURKEY
POL storage + Airport
CU Port
,1/ -- Iskenderun
La.kl. ? t'
e.nlyn.
Mediterranean (b
Ta,IYs e~
sea T
I Hams
SYRIA
r
i LEBANON
Beirut*
ISSAEl.
Tel/Aviv-
rele ( WEST a
? BANK
t+ L t
Damascus
t 1'
?A. Suw.1 d.
0.r,.
0 MILES 50
JORDAN
554838 11-73 CIA
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StsCRE7'
Syria: Costs of the Conflict and Prospects for Recovery
Syria has sustained severe losses in military equipment and economic
assets as a result of the current conflict. The direct and indirect costs of
the war and its aftermath probably will approach $1 billion, roughly
equivalent to halt of Syria's annual output. The oil-rich Arab states will
more than cover these losses, helping to restore normal growth.
The Syrian economy sustained large but by no means crippling damage.
We estimate direct damage to industrial sites and roads, railroads, bridges,
and communication facilities to be $225 million. The petroleum storage
areas at Hims, Baniyas, Latakia, and Tartus were hard hit, as were the
powerplants in Damascus and Hims, which account for well over one-half
of Syria's electric power capacity. Contrary to some earlier reporting, the
country's only oil refinery at Hims was not destroyed, although it was
rendered inoperable by damage to nearby power and storage facilities.
Production losses and curtailed revenues from oil transit fees and
exports could reach $250 million. Because port damage was minimal, the
loss in export earnings probably will not exceed $100 million this year.
Direct losses in military equipment amounted to at least $200 million.
Damage was inflicted on a number of Syrian military installations.
Combined, these losses would total less than $400 million.
it
seems highly likely that other Arab states will provide enough aid to cover
Syria's economic and military losses. In addition, the Arab countries have
been assisting Syria with various forms of economic assistance, including
the supply of badly needed petroleum, food, medicines, and medical teams.
Economic recovery will be aided by the lack of damage to agriculture,
which supplies much of Syria's national output. Syria had either harvested
or sown most of its major crops before the war began. Although the 1973
wheat crop was well below earlier record levels, food supplies appeared
to be good throughout the hostilities. Disruptions in supply and
transportation should gradually be overcome, and industrial cutbacks caused
by direct damage or power losses probably will be restored by early 1974.
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Sh,CRE'1'
Availability of Arab Oil
Arab oil cutbacks and embargoes are continuing, but the cease-fire
has improved the supply situation for southern Europe Saudi Arabia and
Kuwait, which account for 60% of Arab oil exports, initially announced
10'/% reductions in oil production.) Both have since made additional cuts
equal to the amount of their dirc-.t and indirect exports to the United
States. Kuwait has further reduced its production by an amount equal to
its normal exports to the Netherlands. As a result, Saudi and Kuwaiti
production in November will be about 251 less than in September. Libya,
in contrast, has reduced production by only 5% and is not embargoing
shipments to Caribbean and Italian refineries that serve the US market.
Moreover, Libyan National Oil Company sales are not restricted as to
destination.
According to oil minister Otaiba, Abu Dhabi needs to maximize its
revenues and production. Although it is embargoing shipments to the United
States and the Netherlands, it is not cutting back production. As long as
this policy continues, the oil companies can divert non-Arab oil to the
United States and replace it with Abu Dhabi oil.
Eastern Mediterranean pipeline terminals in Syria and Lebanon, which
normally supply Western Europe with about 2 million b/d -- 13% of its
supply - will soon be back to their usual level. The Lebanon terminals
exporting about 1 million b/d of Iraqi and Saudi crude oil are expected
to resume normal operations this week. The Trans-Israeli pipeline, which
supplies Europe with about 400,000 b/d, probably will resume exporting
soon. The Syrian terminal of Baniyas (about 700,000 b/d), which was
damaged by air attacks, will be closed for four to six weeks and then resume
activity at one-half capacity.
1. For tables on oil price increases, see the Appendix.
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,S I'C R L' I '
Worldwide Grain Developments
Brezhnev announced last week that the grain harvest would yield a
gross output of more than 215 million tons - almost 18 million tons more
than the previous Soviet estimate. On the basis of yields reported so far,
we recently estimated a gross output of as much as 220 million tons,
equivalent to some 165 million tons of usable grain
Worldwide Wheat
The International Wheat Council is becoming more optimistic about
the world market situation in FY 1974. Its latest assessment puts the
difference between wheat export availability and import requirements at
between a 2 million ton deficit and a 5 million ton surplus. A month earlier,
the Council had forecast a 6 million ton deficit. The new estimate reflects
higher-than-expected output in the EC, Australia, and Canada and prospects
that less wheat will be fed to animals in the EC. The record grain crop
recently announced by the USSR obviously calls for further upward revision
of the Council's estimate.
China-Syria
China has agreed to donate about 12,000 tons of wheat worth about
$2 million to Syria. Delivery of the wheat, representing about 5% of Syria's
annual grain import needs, is expected in late November. This marks the
second time in recent weeks that China, a major wheat importer, has used
wheat exports for political purposes. Earlier, China agreed to provide E y t
with 100,000 tons of wheat, probably also as a grant.
Last week the EC lifted the ban on rice exports and replaced it with
a high export levy. Italy, the EC's only exporter, had been trying to get
the ban removed since September so it could sell some 300,000 tons of
rice from its bumper harvest at the current high world prices. The new
export levy probably will keep most of Italy's surtflus rice within
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SEX.f&E.I
Chile's Copper Prospects
Chilean copper production in 1973 is expected to he around 650,000
to 670,000 tons -- about 8/ below the 1972 level -- and earn about
$ I . I billion in foreign exchange. Improved worker discipline and better
mine m agement can be expected to increase production during 1974 to
as much as 750,000 tons, which would be a record production level. Also,
a large amount of copper concentrate in the form of' converter cleanings
at Chuquicamata could earn an additional $50 million or so in return for
a relatively small investment in transportation facilities. As the primary
source of foreign exchange earnings, copper production will play a key role
in the juntas attempts to bring Chile out of economic chaos.
Substantial expansion of production will depend on Chile's ability to
attract investment and new expertise. To this end, Santiago is tryin to rear,;
some sort of accommodation with maior US comnanicc.
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Fueled by the rapid rise in INSTALLMENT CREDIT- -
0 L__
---
Long-Term Trend
Long-Term
UK RETAIL SALES have soared.
140 (~
11963 100
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION has leveled off- -
INSTALLMENT
CREDIT
OUTSTANDING
1963-100
INDUSTRIAL
PRODUCTION
Long-Term Trend
Coal Strike
but JOB VACANCIES remain at all-time highs.
Thousand
Vacancies
Long-Term Trend
11111111111
1972
1973 Aug
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The United Kingdom: Cooling Off
For once, the Brilish economy ranks near the top of Western Europe's
growth list, but a marked slowdown is indicated for 1974. Strains on
productive capacity are increasing, and the Ileath government may feel
compelled to supplement Stage III of its anti-inflation program with a more
restrictive monetary policy - especially if it hopes to see price rises curbed
before the next election. The trade (Ieficit, which will amount to more
than $4.0 billion this year and remain large in 1974, may encourage the
government to further restrain monetary expansion.
Expansionary budgets in 1972 and 1973, combined with rapidly
increasing hank lending, fostered a consumption-led boom. Gross domestic
product in the first half of 1973 was T%, higher than in the first half' of
1972; retail sales were 14`%o higher; and export volume was up about 13`/x.
Rising installment credit fueled retail sales, while the sterling devaluation
sparked the export boom.
Signs of flagging demand, however, are increasing. Growth of consumer
outlays, which rose at an annual I01/o rate in the first quarter, probably
has already peaked. Much of the first quarter rise resulted from purchases
anticipating the value-added tax introduced on I April. Private consumption
expenditures in the third quarter fell below the average for the first half,
as rising prices and wage restraints began to bite into demand. Budget cuts
announced last May and a recent directive to banks to cut personal credit
except for housing will further cool demand in the coming months.
After rising steeply during 1972 and the first quarter of 1973, industrial
production has leveled oft'. Plant utilization has reached 94%, one of the
highest rates in Western Europe, and the labor market is still tight.
Unemployment -- at 2.3% of the labor force in mid-October, compared
with 3.5`%% it year earlier -- is at its lowest since the Tories took office,
and job vacancies are at their highest since 1951.
The government has been hoping that rising investment would make
the boom self-sustaining. Fixed investment in manufacturing -- in its first
upturn since 1970 -- increased No in the first half of 1973 over the previous
six months, and recent business surveys indicate that most companies plan
to expand capacity further. Inventories, however, were rebuilt rapidly in
the first half of 1973, and, if consumer spending decelerates abruptly, the
upsurge of investment may not continue.
With the economy cooling, imports are expected to rise less rapidly
next year. As world demand declines, export growth also should slow, but
less severely. The government had hoped that these changes and more
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United Kingdom: Balance of Payments
'72
Current account
balance
-73
475 -3
55
173
-840
-420
.8502
Of which:
Trade balance
-542
-73 -8
10
-278
-1,286
-931
-1.366
Long-term
capital
balance
-428
-596 -3
06
-906
-248
159
N.A.
Basic
balance
-501
-122 -6
61
-733
-1,087
-261
NA.
Short-term
capital,
including
errors and
c.nissions
649
-2,588 4
67
263
1,2543
1,2153
N.A.
Official
settlements
balance
148
-2,710 -1
93
-470
1. Not seasonally adjusted.
2. OER estimate.
3. Including capital transfers.
WHOLESALE PRICES continued to climb even faster
than RETAIL PRICES during Stage II.
I STAGE''I STAGE II
100 L~l__1_L__I I I_ I I I R I =' l I I" ':1 I I I I I I I _J
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D
1972 1973
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favorable terms of would reduce the trade deficit, which in 1973
will amount to $4.0 billion to $4.5 billion. The recent increases in .,il prices
will cut into tlu hoped-I'or improvement by adding some 31/0 to total import
value next year, assuming that the volume of oil imports is about the same
as in 1073.
't'hrough the third quarter of 1973, the trade deficit has been covered
by official borrowing overseas, short-term capital inflows. and continued
growth in net receipts from services and transfer payments. Anticipating
a continuing need to finance trade deficits through increased capital inflows,
London is relaxing some regulations affecting borrowing abroad.
The trade deficit and continued rapid inflation have already encouraged
the government to restrain monetary expansion. Up nearly 17% in 1972,
the money supply has risen at an annual rate of about 1 l%/o this year. The
Bank of England in July called for 1 170 of commercial bank deposits to
be frozen, and it subsequently boosted its minimum lending rate to the
market to more than 11%. In September, banks were told to cut back
on less essential lending. The Governor of the Bank of England has said
that he will take additional steps if growth of the money supply does not
slow even more.
The wage and price controls introduced in November 1972 clearly have
had little impact. In September, consumer prices were up by 0.9% from
August and 9.3'%o from a year earlier. Under Stage II, in effect since early
this year, the government was able to curtail wage increases, a major source
of pressure on prices. Price increases for imported raw materials, however,
kept consumer prices moving upward at a brisk pace. Wholesale prices
continued to climb even more steeply. In the first seven months of 1973,
wholesale prices of basic materials and fuels purchased by manufacturing
industry - products with a heavy import content - rose 24%, compared
with the same period a year earlier.
Under Stage III, starting today, controls on wages and prices are being
loosened. Even if the labor unions comply with the official guidelines, wages
will go up at least 10% in 1974 and add to inflationary pressures, because
a sizable gain in productivity is unlikely. Moreover, a broader definition
of allowable costs could permit price increases larger than under Stage H.
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DOMESTIC ECONOMIC INDICATORS
wlI(lLISl1II I'IIIC(S
nii.11101
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41
88
10
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81
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11 1111:13
Aug
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181
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11tiomI Kingdom
1.1 11
Il l
11
United Kingdum
Sep
!3
.
1
IL,lly
1:1 1
It
!1 7
3 4
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Aug
13
.
84
19'1
I
1/:
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Canada
Jul
13
83
191
255
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11111 I M11unls
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United States
Sell
73
0.3
49
74 197
.3 131 111
Japan
Sup
73
7 it
82
146 ' 195
Wusl (; h Illy. 11,1
11 !r
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West Gerlll;Illy
Aug
13
it I
5 1)
7
1b
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111 4
9!I
France.
Srp
13
0 !1
6 4
19
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1:1 nl
8!
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United Kingdom
Sep
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t) 9
84
93
138
Italy
A I
/:1
I., !I
1!13
Italy
Aug
/:1
013
7.2
117
85
I, III.1111 Auq
% 1 811 I8
Canada
Sep
13
06
55
85
II /
Avrr.np' Ammdl
lirnwIll liit Sunr
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I'1'll I'III (. h?I II II I'
I Mnnlhs
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I 311111 I'rnvuuls I Yna1 :1 Months
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t Mnnth !I/II
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101
95
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Sep
7:1
-113
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c;{
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J 131.111
.,3,333
/ I
7 I
171
143
Jap
an
Jul
3
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177
I I I
1.2
Wes
t German
y
Jul
13
- 1 1
90
48
139
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348
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ed Kingd
om
Srp
13
/ I
106
8 !I
99
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May
/3 7 3
11 3
2114
22.3
Italy
Apt
13
2 8
111 4
191
1;3 1
I;?madd 11,1
1:1 J 4
113
13 7
1.5
Can
ada
Aug
73
1 5
139
1 5.5
14.6
I Year ;1 Months I hIt1 IWI
I ?1111 IIII. Earlier ['Iffier
1(111113/ Stalls
Pnme hnance paper
70 Oct
l 88
5 13
8.13
8 50
.I.Ipa11
Call money
I!1 Oct
It 7!i
4 ;18
725
8 75
Wesl (ielnlJny
Interbank loans( IMonth':I
213 Oct
14 2!i
112
14 25
1375
France
Cl)) ntnriuy
20 Oct
I I l5
5 88
8 38
10 75
1)11131!/ Knnldnnl
Inl:al authnrdy deposits
26 Oct
12 91
4 82
10 38
13 13
'Seasonally adjusted.
"
1111111
1 Ilance 31,131111
78 Oct
9 00
5 13
7 63
815
Average for latest 3 months compared
with average for previous 3 months.
[Ill) UuII,lrs
Three month dl!pnslts
7P) Oct
9 38
594
11.19
1038
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EX POHJS?
fill)
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
IMPORTS'
fill)
United Status
Japan
West Germ ny
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
TRADE BALANCE'
f(l) /fu h
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
EXTERNAL ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Mdllan US $
Suit 13 6.448
Still /3 :1.1211
Sup 13 6.2)18
Sup /3 3.141
Su(. 13 2,584
Aug /3 1.11!1()
Jul 13 2.11/6
Sup 73
Scp 13
Sup /3
Sap 13
Sep 13
Aug /3
Jul 13
Million US S
5.575
2.125
4.435
311(11
3.(118
2.31 1
1.94!)
Sap 73
Sep 73
Sep 13
Sep 13
Sep 13
Aug 13
Jul 73
Million US $
B73
Million US $ I'ulcnnl
11)13 1912 Change
50,610 35,869 411
25.158 28,165 11 (
48,869 34,034 43.6
2(1,142 19 206 :1!1 2
1,226 111.139 21/ 11
3 469 11.699 134
1,;,!118 11,252 23.1
Million US S Nicoll]
1913 HI? Change
50.456 48.6791 24.0
12 1 54 13 573 li:1 8
31,245 21.8)15 33.9
25 690 18.436 .19 J
24.429 11.941 36 2
15(114 10.996 37 I
12.917 10,616 22.2
1973 1972
154 1 -4.810
40.2 3.604
1.832 11.624
741) 1.1152
- 434 -3,21)4
427 1.564
126 941
6.061
6,228
769
1.203
903
635
Change
4,964
-3.051
5.396
284
7.0(11
-2.488
305
BASIC BALANCE"
Current and Long-Term Capital Transactions
latest Period Cumulative /Million US SI
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
Million US S 1973 1972
7311 -800 - 1.700 -5,700
Aug 13 -770 -5.926 1.257
Jul 73 136 1605 3 593
131 -576 -576 -524
73 1 -995 - 995 -4413
72 IV 8110 NA 2.983
731 -272 -272 -117
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
End of
Sep 73
Sep 13
Aug 73
Sep 73
Sap 73
Jul 73
Sep 73
Billion US S Jun 1970
1411 1 16.3
148
37 '1
99
64
57
55
4.1
88
4.4
2d
47
4.3
I Year
Earlier
13.2
16.5
24.6
160
61
6.5
6.2
Cha,0n) e
40
-7.183
1.988
-52
-549
NA.
-155
3 .Mmllhs
Car her
14.0
152
32
102
10
6.4
6.0
EXPORT PRICES
US S
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
EXPORT PRICES
National Currency
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
IMPORT PRICES
National Currency
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
AvetagII Annual
Growth Italy Since
Percent Change --- -' - -- _ -- -
Latest hum Previous I Yuan 3 Months
Month Merrill 1910 Earlier Earlier
Aug 13 39 84 22 5 357
Jul 13 4 3 12 8 23 6 400
Aug 73 2 / 15 6 32 3 76 2
Jun 73 92 155 337 51
Aug 7:1 06 105 123 11!1
Jun 13 79 92 I 12 9 2
Jun 73 -0.6 5 b 10.4 1 1.8
Average Annual
Growth (late Since
I'ercenl Change ------
latest Ircnl Pruviuus
Merrill Month
Aug 73 1
Jul 73
Aug 73
Jun 73
Aug 73
Jun 73
Jul 73
39
4.2
-)9
38
2.0
2.5
0.5
Pelcerl Change -
latest fruit It uvmus
Month Month
Aug 73
Jul 73
Aug 73
Ju?r 73
Aug 73
Jun 73
Jun 73
EXCHANGE RATES Spot Rate
As of 26 Oct 73
JapanlYenl
West Germany (Martklche
France (rlanc) IPuund
United Kingdom Sterling)
Italy (lira)
Canada (ouear)
US S
Per Unit
.003d
0.4113
0.2369
2.4370
0.0018
1.0049
Dec 66
36.46
63.60
17.34
-12.67
10.06
8.94
I Year
19111 Earlier
84 22.5
2.2 85
09 -08
56 131
92 10.8
6.6 13.1
4.2 12.0
3 MonUls
Cur nor
35.7
38 I
44
14 6
186
26.9
11.8
Average Annual
Growth Rate Since
1970
10.6
06
-02
3.1
13.3
10.8
4R
i Year
Earlier
20.6
80
26
56
34.1
24.8
10.6
3 Months
Earlier
19.2
12.3
9,1
7.3
42.6
54 4
13.4
18 Dec
1971
15.95
32.55
20.31
-6.47
2.44
0.71
19 Mar
1973
-1.00
16.15
7.49
-0.98
-0.45
0.72
19 Oct
1913
0.24
- 0.82
- 0.67
- 0.04
0.11
0.34
As of 26 Oct 13
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingd '^t
Italy
Canada
Dec 66
-19.67
22.70
30.80
-11.37
-35.64
-17.16
4.83
18 Dec
1971
-10.11
8.69
13.78
1.84
-21.37
- 15.97
- 1.72
19 Mar
1913
-3.33
-3.36
8.75
O.P7
-6.93
-9.13
- 0.07
19 Oct
1973
0.0!
0.29
-0.55
-0.26
0.21
0.30
0.38
'
"Converted SsesonNly adjusted. -Weighting is based on each listed country's trade with 16 other industrialized
Nov Intppdollars roved PorI~elease ` etl'~'/04/19 : CIA-Rq o sge1~b'6i1n Bl3Sb61oe-rate variations
I Nov 73 3 pp
 Approved For Release 2006/04/19 : CIA-RDP85T00875R001500140038-6
S11;CI(E,I'
Arithmetic of the Recent Oil Price 1-likes
On 16 October the Persian Gulf members of the Organization of
Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) announced a unilateral 70% increase
in posted prices for crude oil. This action was followed quickly by large
posted price increases in Libya and Venezuela. The following tables show
the relationship between the posted prices and the estimated actual sales
prices. F7 I
99
SECRET I November 1973
 Approved For Release 2006/04/19 : CIA-RDP85T00875R001500140038-6
SE,C:RE I'
A-2
}, RR I November 1973
Approved For Release 2006/04/ 9`:~TA'-F7IP85T00875R001500140038-6
 Approved For Release 2006/04/19'~ 'c iA'RbX85T00875R001500140038-6
(UNCLASSIFIED)
SECRET 1 November 1973
Approved For Release 2006/04/19 : CIA-RDP85T00875R001500140038-6