ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00875R001500140033-1
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 16
• Document Creation Date: December 20, 2016
• Document Release Date: March 21, 2006
• Sequence Number: 33
• Publication Date: September 27, 1973
• Content Type: REPORT

 Approved For Release 2006/04/19 : CIA-RDP85T00875R001500140033-1 25X1
Secret
Economic Intelligence Weekly
25X1 AGENCY A ...:
Secret
CIA No. 7805/73
27 September 1973
Copy No.
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 25X1 Approved For Release 2006/04/19 : CIA-RDP85T00875R001500140033-1
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SI",(:RET
CONTENTS
Soviet Turbines for US Hydro Powerplant 1
US Representation at the Fall Canton Fair I
Peru and Cerro Corporation Reach an Impasse I
Progress on a Siberian Truck Plant 2
Worldwide Food Developments 3
Chile: The Junta's Economic Policy Begins to Take Shape Austerity
for the people and reversal of some of Allende's socialization
measures are in prospect.
Pakistan: Floods Cause Economic Setback Damage will slow
government development expenditures and hurt the trade balance. 6
International Monetary Davelopments Intervention by the
European central banks plus tightened French and Belgian controls
helped stem another large-scale speculative attack on the European
joint float.
Uranium Enrichment Developments The Soviet Union signed its
second enrichment contract with the West; meanwhile, the initial
price of enrichment from the tripartite's plants was publicized.
9
New Round of Canadian Manufacturing Expansion Booming
investmnent should stimulate US-Canadian trade.
10
Comparative Indicators
Recent Data Concerting Domestic and External
Economic Activity Inside Back Cover
Note: Comments and queries on the contents of this ublication are welcomed. They may be directed
to
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SE.CRE'J'
ECONOMIC INTELLIGENCE WEEKLY
Notes
Soviet Turbines for US Hydro Powerplant
The USSR, after persistent efforts, has an excellent chance to win
a contract to supply generating equipment for a US hydroelectric
powerplant. Energomasheksport teamed up with Westinghouse to submit
the low bid for eight 53-megawatt generating units for the Rock Island
Dam on the Columbia River. The team made three proposals, with bids
ranging from $36.4 million to $39.9 million, compared with a $47.4 million
bid by Allis Chalmers, their closest competitor. Westinghouse would
manufacture the generators, and the Lenin rad Metal Works the turbines.
I I
US Representation at the Fall Canton Fair
A record number of US businessmen are scheduled to attend the
Canton Fair that begins on 15 October. The Chinese plan to invite most
old customers and increase the number of newcomers to broaden contacts
with US firmr: and increase the number of products traded. Peking increased
US representation from 40 Americans at the spring fair of 1972 to about
160 last spring. 25X1
Peru and Cerro Corporation Reach an Impasse
Cerro Corporation has broken off negotiations for sale of its Peruvian
mining properties, following Lima's refusal to grant export permits for zinc
concentrates already sold and at the pier. Cerro and Peru have been
negotiating the sellout since 1971, the company asking $175 million and
Lima offering only $12 million. The company's move could result in
immediate nationalization of the properties, but such a step would be costly
to Peru. Even Peruvian officials doubt that the mines and smelter could
be operated without company technicians. Moreover, Peru is still attempting
to find $200 million to $300 million in external financing to complete
development of the Cuajone copper mine. Expropriation of Cerrn would
frighten investors and probably matte financing of this and other projects
more difficult to obtain. 25X1
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Progress on a Siberian Truck Plant
Reports out of Moscow have focused attention on Soviet-GM
negotiations involving technical assistance for a new Siberian heavy truck
plant to be built near Krasnoyarsk by the early 1980s. The truck plant,
contrary to press reports, will be smaller than the Kama plant. It will
manufacture about 70,000 diesel transport trucks (14 to 20 ton capacity)
per year, compared with 150,000 trucks (8-11 tons) planned for Kama.
An end to the negotiations is not in sight. Meetings on a GM proposal
have continued for several months, and the Soviets are also quietly
negotiating with Ford.
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Worldwide Food Developments
The International Wheat Council now projects a world wheat deficit
of 6 million tons in FY 1974 instead of the 9 million tons forecast earlier.
Recent developments in several countries could further reduce the deficit:
Canada will increase exports by drawing down stock by
2 million tons rather than the I million tons reported
earlier.
Because of improved harvests of wheat and coarse grain, EC
countries are expected to export more than the previously
announced 4.5 million tons.
A bumper wheat harvest will cut Eastern Europe's deficit
below earlier forecasts.
An expectation of a shortage, nevertheless, is keeping prices high,
making it hard for some developing countries to finance imports.
Recognizing this problem, the Director General of the UN Food and
Agriculture Organization has asked the developed countries to curb wheat
imports voluntarily.
Most experts feel that a wheat crisis can be prevented in FY 1974.
A crisis could develon the following year if world import demand remains
high. Stocks used to help meet export demand this year will be largely
depleted by next July in the United States and Canada, the major wheat
cx ortcrs so exports in FY 1975 must be met out of 1974 production.
Chile's Wheat Needs
Chile needs about 400,000 tons of wheat before the December harvest
and 1.3 million tons next year. Rupture of relations with the USSR will
probably deny Chile 30,000 tons of Australian wheat, scheduled to be
delivered in October under a Soviet credit, and 50,000 tons of Bulgarian
wheat, scheduled to arrive in November. Allende had contracted for 250,000
tons of US grain for fall delivery
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Soviets See No Soybean Purchases This Year
Soviet trade officials say that the USSR does not intend to purchase
soybeans from the United States in FY 1974. Delivery of the 1.2 million
tons bought in July 1972 will be completed in November. Output of
sunflower seeds, cotton, and soybeans - the major sources of vegetable
oil -- promises to recover from last year's sharp decline, meeting domestic
needs and permitting normal exports of sunflower oil.
Thailand to Increase Rice Exports
Easing controls on rice exports, the Thai Ministry of Commerce this
week granted traders permission to sell 52,000 tons - some of it high
grade - to Hong Kong, Singapore, and the Middle East. Since early June
only small volumes of low-quality rice have been exported. Tight domestic
supplies were eased slightly by the minor crop in August, and prospects
look good for the major harvest, which begins in December. Officials
apparently expect that high prices and these favorable crop prospects will
encourage private brokers to release stocks. 25X1
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Chile: The Junta's Economic Policy Begins to Take Shape
The military government has announced several steps to bring Chile's
economic mess under control. It has frozen the money supply and begun
to iadjust prices to spur production. The public sector deficit - which
exceeded 20% of GNP under Allende - is to be narrowed by reducing
expenditures, boosting taxes, and putting public enterprises on a self
financing basis. The junta expects to increase dramatically the prices charged
by eovernment-controlled industries while holding down wage increases. F-1 25X1
Once? the source of nearly 20% of government
revenue, t e mines have paid no taxes since 1971 but still have incurred
large losses.
The junta is also planning moves to boost farm output. Individual land
titles will be granted peasants on farms legally expropriated, and farms taken
over illegally will be returned to their former owners. At the same time,
price controls on agricultural products may be lifted to offer further
incentives.
All of these moves indicate that Chile's consumption spree has ended
and that workers' real wages will fall, notwithstanding the regime's repeated
pledge that the workers' gains will be preserved. The regime plans to
announce a fiscal policy soon stressing the need for austerity.
There are indications that the regime will use repression
if necessary to control worker's wage demands.
Santiago has increased efforts to resolve its international financial
problems. Special emissaries have been sent to the monetary talks in Nairobi,
where they are to address a meeting of international agencies to explain
Chile's financial situation.
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Pakistan: Floods Cause Economic Setback
Floods that ravaged Pakistan in August have drastically increased grain
import requirements, dimmed export prospects, and diverted government
funds from development projects to refugee relief and reconstruction.
Agricultural losses, according to official estimates that may be inflated,
include:
? 700,000- 1 million tons of private wheat stocks
? 50,000-100,000 tons of the current coarse grain crop
? 350,000-500,000 tons of the current rice crop
? 150,000 tons of the current cotton crop.
Some independent observers place the wheat losses at less than 500,000
tons and cotton losses at 75,000 tons.
If the assessments are correct, this fiscal year's planned foodgrain
imports will nearly double to about 2 million tons. Government food stocks
should sustain the population for the next few months, but imports will
be needed before next spring's harvest. That harvest could be small and
late if the government fails to replace farmers' seed and fertilizer stocks
by the October-December planting season. In addition, damaged irrigation
systems must be restored.
Destruction of up to 20% of the cotton and rice crops could reduce
exports by $150 million to $200 million, nearly one-fourth of last year's
earnings. Contracting for raw cotton and coarse rice exports has been
suspended, but existing contracts will be honored and exports of the
high-quality rice from the new crop will continue.
Relief and reconstruction costs will strain the Pakistani budget severely.
The floods seriously affected some 10 million people, of whom about
one-third are homeless. Most of the 50 countries responding to Islamabad's
plea for assistance have made only token donations. The United States is
the major donor, providing 100,000 tons of wheat and other aid valued
at about $25 million.
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SECRET.
International Monetary Deselopments
Intervention by the European central banks plus tightened French and
Belgian controls helped stein another large-scale speculative attack on the
European joint float, following the 5% revaluation of the Dutch guilder
on 15 September. Speculators, sensing another realignment, bought marks
and Belgian francs, the prime candidates for revaluation, and sold French
francs, the weakest European currency for several weeks.
Pressures on the joint float have been strongest when the mark and
the French franc were at the band extremes. Speculative pressures against
the French currency increased the spread between the commercial franc -??
supported by the central banks -- and the financial franc. Last Thursday
the financial franc sold at a 5% discount relative to the commercial franc;
normally the spread in either direction has been about I%-2%. The Belgian
franc was also under heavy upward pressure, forcing Brussels to buy the
French currency.
Total intervention in the week beginning 17 September amounted to
about $1.6 billion. The Bundesbank and Bank of France together probably
accounted for more than 90% of the total, with the Bundesbank buying
French francs and the Bank of France selling marks and Belgian francs.
This intervention was by far the largest since June, when speculators forced
Bonn to revalue the mark.
Paris and Brussels took several actions to increase the cost and reduce
the funds available for speculation:
? The Bank of France raised the discount rate from 9.5% to
11.5%, the highest since World War II, and now closer to
other European rates;
? The French government told banks not to lend francs to
foreigners;
? Brussels reimposed a negative interest rate on Belgian franc
deposits held by foreigners.
Short-term interest rates for Eurofranc deposits skyrocketed while the
Euromark rate dropped, sharply increasing the cost to speculators of
converting externally borrowed French francs into mark deposits. The
spread between the commercial and financial rates for the French franc
also narrowed to 3% by Monday, and the franc moved well off the band
floor. Finally, speculators probably backtracked when they saw that no
more immediate exchange rate changes were forthcoming.
7
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SECRET 27 September 1973
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SECRET
The European float will remain subject to recurrent speculative
pressures, and more exchange rate changes are likely if the float is to survive.
Speculators will continue to seek profits by attacking the Europeans' fixed
exchange rate system, particularly when the exchange rates are -- or at least
appear to be - out of line with existing economic conditions. The surprise
guilder revaluation and the continuing absence of the pound sterling and
the lira from the European band further dim the already dubious prospects
for European monetary union. The maintenance of the joint float is
indispensable if union is to be achieved. 25X1
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Uranium Enrichment Developments
Foreign competition will begin to cut into the US monopoly of
uranium enrichment during the next decade. The United States earned $375
million in the first seven months of 1973 for these services. The USSR
has entered the market, and a West German - British - Dutch consortium
is preparing to do so.
The Soviet Union was the first to challenge the US position when
it negotiated a small contract with France in 1971. It recently concluded
another agreement -- a $90 million contract with the Italian firm Agip
Nucleare. Soviet prices for enrichment work, recently revealed in a quotation
to a. West German firm, are pegged to the US price. The quoted price of
$34.20 per separative work unit is 5% less than the current US charge. In
1980 the Soviet price will be 4% below the scheduled US price of
about $41.
Soviet enrichment costs probably are below those of the United States,
primarily as a result of cheaper electric power. The USSR apparently is
pricing its enrichment services to capture some Western business, yet
maximize foreign exchange earnings. An agreement with a German utility,
RWE, is believed imminent, and talks have also been held recently with
Sweden, Japan, Switzerland, and General Electric.
URENCO, the operating arm of the tripartite group, inas proposed an
initial charge of 120 DM ($48.60) per SWU. URENCO, which expects to
find a market in the European Community, plans two small demonstration
plants in the United Kingdom and the Netherlands by 1976. Its first
contract, with a West German utility, is anticipated later this year, but
delivery is not likely before 1980.
Although the United States is losing its monopoly, Free World demand
should exceed enrichment capacity in the West beginning in the early 1980s
and provide enough business for eve one in a market probably worth more
than $2 billion annually by 1985.
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New Round of Canadian Manufacturing Expansion
Ottawa's midyear survey reveals that manufacturing industries intend
to accelerate investment outlays in 1973 following two years of decline.
Investment is expected to increase by 19% to US $3.5 billion and probably
will rise further in 1974. The increase should assure a high level of US
machinery and equipment exports to Canada but eventually will mean more
competition with US goods in other markets.
Nearly all industries are planning higher investment outlays, with
particularly large increases being scheduled in textiles, petroleum refining,
and chemicals. A major exceptior is the pulp and paper industry, which
is relying nn more efficient use c : existing equipment to raise production.
The economy's rapid advance since late 1972 has left many industries
operating close to full capacity. Investment also has been encouraged by
Parliament's approval in July of corporate tax cuts and accelerated
depreciation for capital equipment. Climbing interest rates probably will
not dampen investment plans, because most companies are flush with cash.
The tax cuts will allow many industries to finance expansion internally
without major borrowing.
The planned expansion suggests that manufacturers are optimistic
about future exports. Ottawa is striving to reduce dependence on the United
States by seeking broader access to other foreign markets. Japan, already
a major customer for Canadian raw materials, is being urged to import more
Canadian manufactured goods. Expanded manufacturing capacity, combined
with effective devaluation of the Canadian c.irrency through its link to the
US dollar, will place Canadian industry in a good position to capitalize
on a successful outcome of the new round of GATT negotiations. Ottawa
is pushing for further tariff reductions on manufactured goods, which have
been the fastest growing category of Canadian exports in recent years.
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UINI,101G:illlllI
DOMESTIC ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Average Annual
- Growth Rate Siitc
Average Annual
Growth Rate Suics
Percent Change
aul
Irom Previous
I Yen
3 Months
Latest Irnm Previous
I Year
:1 Months
Penud
Period
1070
Earlier
Earlier
Period Period
1970
Earlier
Earlier
GNI"
Quarter
Prevloue
Quarter
United States
71 II
no
5 1
0.4
2.5
United States
Aug 73 0.4
4.8
7.5
5.2
Japan
7311
1.4
9.1
13,0
6.9
Japan
Aug 73 2.1
5.2
17.4
23.4
Vilest Germany
/3 II
-1 1
39
7,2
-4.2
West Germany
Aug 73 0.4
4.9
7.5
7.4
France
73 I
3.3
6.1
5.1
13.11
France
Jul 73 1.5
6.7
J4.9
13.9
United Kingdom
73 N
0.7
4.6
9.5
2.7
United Kingdom
Aug 73 1.0
7.1
7.1
13.3
Italy
73 I
0.8
3.1
5.2
3.4
Italy
Jun 73 2.3
.7.5
18.2
23.2
Canada
7311
019
0.1
6,9
3.7
Canada
Jun 73 1.8
7.5
18.1
15.8
United States
Aug /3
0.4
6.0
10.6
10.5
United States
Aug 73 1.8
4.9
7.5
11.4
Japan
Jul 73
-0.4
8.7
19.2
9.9
Japan
Jul73 0.7
1.3
11.9
11.0
West Germany
Jun 73
-2.8
3.7
6.7
0
West Germany
Aug 13 -0.1
5.8
7.2
2.5
France
Jun 73
-1.5
7.1
8.9
0
France
Jul 73 08
6.2
7.4
10.6
United Kingdom
Jun 73
04
39
10.4
-1.4
United Kingdom
Jul 73 0.4
? 8.5
9.4
7.0
Italy
Jim 73
-I V
2.9
10.2
31.7
Italy
Jul 73 0.6
7.2
11.8
12.6
Canada
Jul 73
0.1
8.9
10.7
4.4
Canada
Aug 73 1.3
5.4
8.3
13.0
United States
Aug 73
0.3
11.0
12.4
11.4
United States
Aug 73 0.4
7.7
616
8.2
Japan
May 73
0.5
11.9
21.3
15.0
Japan
Jun 73 0.8
18.7
29.9
ILIA
West Germany
Jul 73
-1.8
8.4
6.4
-7.0
West Germany
Jul 73 -3.4
9.0
3.1
-21.5
France
May 73
6.7
5.3
13.4
9.5
France
Apr 73 2.6
13.3
14.1
14.4
United Kingdom
May 73
0.8
9.8
1 I,1
-14.0
United Kingdom
Jul 73 2.3
17 7
13.0
12.9
Italy
Feb 73
9.0
11.5
18.8
24.1
Italy
Mar 73 1.0
10.9
18.3
-3.7
Canada
Jun 73
0.5
10.4
10.4
-0.3
Canada
Jul 73 1.4
13.8
15.9
15.5
Percent Rai. III Inlarest
United States
Prime finance paper
Sep 21
9.00
12 Months 3 Months .1 Month
Earlier Edrher Eviler
5.00 7.83 9.00
Japan
Call money
Sip 14
8.75
4.25 8.63 7.50
West Germany
Interbank loans (3 months)
Sep 14
14.00
5.25 13.50 13.75
France
Call money
Sep 21
10.75
4.00 8.50 9.38
United Kingdom
Local authority deposits
Sep 21
13.13
4.60 6.32 14.25
Canada
Finance paper
Sep 21
8.75 '
5.25 7.00 8.25
Euro-Dollars
Throe-month deposits
Sep 21
11.06
6.12 8.94 11.50
27 Sap 73
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EXPORT PRICES
(US $1
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
EXTERNAL. ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Average Annual
Growth Rate Since
Percent Change
Lewis from Previous I Vast 3 Monlhe
Period Period 1910 Earlier ? Elliott
Jul 73 2.2 7.3
Jun 73 1.1 11,5
Jun 73 4.7 13.2
May 73 0.1 11.8
Jul 73 -0.9 10.8
Apr 73 0.9 8.2
May 73 0.7 5.8
EXPORT PRICES
(National Cu(rency)
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
16.8 31.5
19.9 32.9
22.7 42.8
16.8 27.1
16.1 20.3
9.8 24.7
10.2 21.8
Jul 73 2.2 7.3 18.8 31.5
Jun 73 1.2 0.9 4.3 26.7
Jun 73 -2.2 0.8 -0.2 -3.7
May 73 -2.3 3.7 3.5 -4,6
Jul 73 1.1 8.7 11.4 12.2
Apr 73 2.8 5.7 10.4 28.0
May 73 0.5 4.4 11.4 21.4
IMPORT PRICES
(National Currency)
United States
Japan
West Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Canada
Jul 73 1.7 10.1 19.2 ' 15.1
Jun 73 0.7 0 4.9 s 7
Jun 73 -1.6 0.1 3.3 3.2
May 73 2.2 4.0 7.7 29.3
Jul 73 3.3 12.2 31.7 39,7
Apr 73 3.3 8.5 18.7 49.2
May 73 1.4 4.7 8.9 28.6
Latest Period 1 Year 3 Months
End of Jun 1970 Earlier Earlier
United States Jul 73 14.0 18.3 13.1 14.0
.Japan Aug 73 15.1 4.1 16.4 15.9
West Rermany Aug 73 37.9 8.8 24.6 ' 32.2
France Aug 73 10.3 4.4 10.0 11,9
United Kingdom Aug 73 8.5 2.8 8.1 6.7
Italy Jun 73 6.0 4.7 6.4 8.3
Canada Aug 73 5.6 4.3 6.2 6.1
EXPORTS'
(f.o.b.)
latest Cumulative. (Million US $I
Penal Million US S 1973 1912
United States Jul 73
Japan Aug 73
Well Germany Aug 73
France Aug 73
United Kingdom Aug 73
Italy Jun 73
Canada Jul 73
IMPORTS'
(f.o.b.)
hint
Pend
United States Jul 73
Japan Aug 73
West Germany Aug 73
France Aug 73
United Kingdom Aug 73
Italy Jun 73
Canada Jul 73
5,869
2,880
6,084
3,208
2,522
1,937
2,071
Jon-Jul 38,158 27,492
Jon-Aug 22,832 17,700
Jon-Aug 42,602 30,166
Jon-Aug 23,501 18,908
Jon-Aug 18,639 14,742
Jon-Jun 9,419 8,868
Jon-Jul 14,054 11,252
Cumulative (Million US S)
Million US S 1973 1972
5,762 Jon-Jul 38,861 .31,348
2,922 Jon-Aug 19,429 11,818
4,794 Jon-Aug 32,810 24,628
3,198 Jon-Aug 22,688 16,300
3,010 Jon-Aug 21,417 15,821
2,212 Jan?Jun 10,720 8,092
1,946 Jon-Jul 13,055 10,616
TRADE BALANCE'
Latest
Period Mdlinn Its S
1973 1912
-703 -3,856
3,202 5,882
9,792 5,540
812 608
?2,778 -879
-1,241 776
999 635
United States Jul 73 107 Jon-Jul
Japan Aug 73 -42 Jan-Aug
West Germany Aug 73 1,890 Jan-Aug
France Aug 73 12 Jan?Aug
United Kingdom Aug 73 -488 Jan-Aug
Italy Jun 73 -275 Jon-Jun
Canada Jul 73 125 Jan-Jul
EXCHANGE RATES (Spot Rate)
As of 21 Sep 73 US$
Per Unn Dec 60
Percent Change loom
18 Dec 71 19 Mar 73 14 Sip 73
Japanlyeni 0.0038 39.53 16.01 -0.95 0.05
West Germany(Mefp) ch' 0.4148 64.92 33.61 17.09 1.12
France (Franc) Pound 0.2358 18.79 19.76 6.99 1.07
United Kingdom~terrng) 2.4205 -13.26 -7.10 -1.85 0.40
Italy (Lira) 0.0018 10.87 3.20 0.28 0.45
Canada (Dollar) 0.9919 7.53 -0.59 -0.58 0.12
TRADE-WEIGHTED
As of 21 Sep 73
EXCHANGE RATES
Percent Change tram
United States -19.15 -9.57 -2.79 -0.54
Japan 22.92 8.90 -3.16 -0.18
West Germany 32.05 14.97 9.92 -0.32
France -12.02 1.22 -1.21 -0.23
United Kingdom -36.09 -21.76 -7.31 -0.44
Italy -16.34 -15.15 -8.31 -0.68
'Seasonally Adjusted Canada 3.56 -2.98 -1.32 -0.04
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