WEEKLY SUMMARY SPECIAL REPORT THE THIRD NONALIGNED SUMMIT: THE SWAN SONG OF YUGOSLAV PREDOMINANCE

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CIA-RDP85T00875R001500020044-2
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September 4, 1970
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Approved For Release 2009/08/14: CIA-RDP85T00875R001500020044-2 Secret DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIC-FNCE WEEKLY SUMMARY Special Report The Third Nonaligned Summit The Sn'irn Song of Yugoslav Predominance DSB FILE Copp RETURN TO tE-61 Secret N2 685 4 September 1970 No. 0386/70A Approved For Release 2009/08/14: CIA-RDP85T00875R001500020044-2 25X1 Approved For Release 2009/08/14: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500020044-2 Approved For Release 2009/08/14: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500020044-2 Approved For Release 2009/08/14: CIA-RDP85T00875R001500020044-2 (ON I"iI)F'N'I'IAI, THE THIRD NONALIGNED SUMMIT: The Swan Song of Yugoslav Predominance l he sound of the q;ivel in I_us;lka un (5 Soptenihel will Illilrk the successful culmination u l a Iwo-y(!;n o f f o r t Oil the part of Yuglcisluv President Tito to restore interest in the moribund lionaligiior nlovenu!ul. Whether or lint Belgrade has hoeii successful in hrcathing new life into Iiii nlovenuinl will not he known, however, until months---even years-lifter the gollwiln(l. Beca;ise of the vilryiiul and ultell Coillictiiul interests nod views of thw participants, the Liisoka sunlrnit nlay possibly he the lost world-wide (lhlther inp of nonnlliyned nations. I -lit" lout drat it is hein(l held it '.II is;l trihilte to Tito's prestige uric to the ohility of Belgradc!'s I on!ign Ministry to stinnilatu illturest ill it illoverll(!Ilt thilt two y('.;irs ;rqo wits curlsl(ler(!d d(!acl. The first two d;lys of the nlcetin(l Will he devoted to cunsriltill ion alllung the lorcign ministers, at which lime--hopefully-the thorny problem of whether or not to soot rival Carnbodian and South Vietnamese dolegatibns will be resolved. Thu, Iureigrl ministers arc also expected to decide on whether to seat African liheration rnovenlent cfclegatiorls. The hoods of state will then meet on 8 Soplerilher. The Lusaka gatherirq, howev(or, rev(:oals nonalignnuont at it criticll cross- rood. The aflend;.l is broad enough for oil paiticip;lnis to accept, lour (in- dolibtedly it number of resolutions will be published-includin~l ;i d,mmiciii- tion of the will ill Indochina, support for the P;ilostilliali (;;lust!, mid condellin;ition of the remnants of coloni;llisln in Africa. Cousidorin(I Tito's aqe (78), he cannot he expected to hold non;iliilnnlent lofiether much lun(ler. Therefore, the challenge at Lusaka will bo to lay the foundation for i nonalignment movement drat can survive its most prestigious and foremost advocate. Nonalignment is the stepchild of the cold war. During the late 1940s and 1950s, the dc- velopirig and newly independent nations con- sidered themselves at the mercy of the super- powers. There arose a gradual recognition that the peoples of the Middle East, Africa, Asia, and Latin America might have a common interest in promoting peaceful coexistence and in avoiding an alliance with one or another of the super- powers. This led to the convening of the first nonaligned summit nearly ten years ago. If it were not for Tito, it is safe to say there would be no nonaligned summit in Zambia. He alone of the four original supporters of nonalign- ment (Nehru of India and Sukarno of Indonesia- both deceased-and Nasir of the JAR) has given the movement momentum. Nonalignment began Special Report 4 September 1970 CON hI DEN'!'IAI, Approved For Release 2009/08/14: CIA-RDP85T00875R001500020044-2 Approved For Release 2009/08/14: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500020044-2 (X)NIA I k,N'I'IAC, to take shape as far back as 1947 in the policy objectives and pi onouncements of India's Prime Minister Nehru. In the early 1950s President Tito helped give the movement meaning. In the words of one student of nonalignment, "Tito, the Croatian metal worker, accomplished what Nehru, the Brahmin aristocrat, thought beyond reach--the vitalization of nonalignment." Tito is the most gaveled nonaligned leader, and his personal diplomacy has been a key to the movement's success. The first inkling of Tito's future role on behalf of the nonaligned Cause came during his 1954 visit to India. In an address to the Indian Parliament, Tito called for active cooperation among states with different social systems "to remove all elements liable to impede a broad cooperation between states, large and small," The concept of nonalignment was aided by the Bandung Conference of 29 Asian and African countries, held in Indonesia in April 1955 to promote peaceful coexistence. The Bandung gathering was strictly a regional conference, in- cluding representatives from some states that were clearly aligned. The decisions adopted, however, fitted Tito's own foreign policy objectives as much as if he had taken part in drafting them. The gathering strongly condemned colonialism, advocated universality of membership in the United Nations, and called for disarmament as well as the prohibition of nuclear testing. The first nonaligned surnrnit was held in Belgrade in September 1961. Attended by 25 countries as full members, three countries as official observers, and 19 national liberation movements and Socialist labor splinter groups as unofficial observers, the summit adopted a pro- grz,m whose tenets have become standard non- aligned rhetoric-world disarmament, the closing of foreign military bases, a condemnation of imperialism, and the restoration of the rights of the Palestinians. In addition, the summit called attention to the needs of the developing nations and urged that Communist China be admitted to the UN. The initial achievements of nonalignment were impressive. The various nations accelerated their move toward decolonization through lobby- ing efforts at the UN and in bilateral talks around the globe. Moreover, as a result of a united stand by tine nonaligned countries, the UN Dis- armament Committee was enlarged in 1962, and by their implicit rejection of Moscow's "troika" proposal for leadership of the UN when Dag Hammarskjold was killed in an airplane accident, they contributed to the solution of that crisis. Participants at the first nonaligned summit, September 1961, in Belgrade, Yugoslavia. Special Report 4 September 1970 CONFIDENTIAL Approved For Release 2009/08/14: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500020044-2 Approved For Release 2009/08/14: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500020044-2 CON F11)1,;N'I'IAL Tito, Ben Bella, and Nasir in Cairo on the eve of the second nonaligned summit in October 1964. The cohesion that marked the initial phase of nonalignment. and promised so much, was, how- ever, short lived. By the time the second summit was held ill Cairo ill October 1964, the earlier harmony and unity were gone. Forty-seven nations were on hand as full members and ten as observes, but along with the increased dumber of participants, contradictory regional interests and rivalries flared. Indonesia's President Sukarno spearheaded a pro-Ch:nose, anti-inlperialist,and anti - peaceful coexistence platform that clearly wrecked the meeting. Through the united efforts of Tito, India's Prime Minister Shastri, and Nasir, the con- ference was able to end on a positive note by condemning colonialism acld stressing the eco- nomic needs of the third world. The diversity of interests displayed at Cairo, the growing detente in East-West relations, as well as the end of most colonial rule in Africa tool< much of the punch out of nonalignnrenl. In the succeeding years, the movement waned and ap- peared to be on the verge of extinction. A. nunl- Special Report her of world events, however, convinced T1 ito that nuIt it ligmnMI It dii in Id he revived acrd actively pursued, These inchidecl the Soviet occultation of Czechoslovakia, the continuation of the Will in Indochina, and the failo e to resolve the Middle Last crisis. Beginning in 1968, Yugoslavia re- newed its activity ill sccpport of convening it third nonalignment scnrurlit. Yugoslavia's call for a viable nonaligned nroven-rent brought hope to the third world by offering an alternative to leaning on either the Last or West. Furthermore, f rte's message is based on the example of Belgrade's past successes as well as on an appeal to emerging governments as cu-equals. Yugoslavia's problems are much ill(,' same as those of many third-world nations. Large parts of the County remain backward, and it is still struggling for national identity, intecrlal collesioo, and political independence. In spite of all this, however, Belgrade has made great strides both economically and socially. Moreover, antler Tito's leadership, Yugoslavia's neutrality toward the superpower; is backed up by its actions: Belgrade does business with both the Last and West, but it maintains an independent foreign policy. \5,nulicoomcen1 (111(1 ) tic(P.sluriu Belgrade owes a great deal to rlonalignnrent. Not only is it time vehicle by which Yugoslavia emerged from diplomatic isolation in the early fifties, but it has enabled Tito to play an active and far greater role ill international politics than he otherwise could have nrauagecl. As a i e'.rill, Oonalignnrent gave Yugoslavia a source of pi isle and acconrplishnrerlt no other policy could Offer. Belgrade, however, has of ferecl the third world sonlethiog Olore tangible than just the theory of nonalignment. Since the mid-1950s, it has extended slightly over `900 million in credits and other assistance to some 40 less developed countries i0 Africa, Asia, and Latin Acucr ic.a. Almost all of the credits have been given to finance Yugoslav exports of capital equipment 4 September 1970 (;ON 1 " ! ! )LN'I'IAI, Approved For Release 2009/08/14: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500020044-2 Approved For Release 2009/08/14: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500020044-2 CON F I DEN'I'IAI, and for associated technical assistance. The largest recipients have been India, Indonesia, Pakistan, the UAR, and Iran. Included in the wide variety of complete projects financed are hydroelectric and thermal electric power stations, food pro- cessing plants, building-materials factories, textile pftnts, ships, port facilities, water-supply systems, and geological exploration. Most recently, the Yugoslavs signed a two- year program of technical cooperation with the East African countries of Kenya, Uganda, Tan- zania, and Zambia. In connection with the sum- rnit itself, Belgrade is picking up the bill for the physical plant in Lusaka. The 60 "prestige" houses as well as the c-nference hall are being built with Yugoslav money and by Yugoslav tech- nicians. Although the Yugoslav aid program does not depend directly on Western grants and credits, the large volume of such assistance to Yugoslavia has put it in a, better position to con- tinue its own economic aid program. Backed up by the extension of credits, Bel- grade's policy has called for a rising share of trade with the less developed countries, both to provide outlets for exports that cannot compete in West- ern markets and to acquire needed raw materials. The results of this policy have been far less than hoped. Many of the recipients of Yugoslav credits have been slow to draw upon them-only $300 million had been drawn and an additional $140 million definitely contracted for by the end of 1967. Moreover, difficulties in arranging mutually satisfactory exchanges of goods have led to a near stagnation of Yugoslavia's clearing trade with less developed countries in recent years. Trade turn- over with this area last year accounted for only 9 percent of total Yugoslav trade compared with 11 percent in 1966. The aid program itself is not without its critics and problems. A number of Yugoslav of- ficials ask why Belgrade offers technical assistance to developing countries when large parts of Yugo- slavia remain backward and woefully in need of assistance. Moreover, Belgrade's assistance has not Special Report - 4 - always been well planned or smoothly executed. Yugoslav businessmen have in the past committed themselves to projects they were totally unpre- pared to handle and haveshown naivete in thinking that Yugoslav responsibility ended with the com- pletion of the projects. As a result, the Yugoslavs have left finished plants and projects in the hands of totally unprepared and unqualified bureau- crats. 25X1 These problems will not prevent the Yugo- slavs from continuirig their assistance program, however, inasmuch as it has enhanced their image and political influence in the third world. the Yugoslavs are the most appreciated whites in Africa-they are able, conscientious, and do not come as missionaries of a particular cause." Moreover, the Yugoslav brand of socialism holds some appeal for new nations. Not only is "socialism" a potent political word- rightly or wrongly conjuring up thoughts of social justice, economic improvement, and political democracy, but Yugoslavia's decentralized system of enterprise management holds a great deal of fascination for the third world. The UAR's Corporation Law, adopted in early 1966, may well reflect Yugoslavia's experience with autonomy for plant managers. Belgrade has given a great deal to nonalign- ment, but it has also taken much. Because of it, Yugoslav influence and prestige have grown out of proportion for a country its size. Psychologi- cally at least, this has helped make it difficult for Moscow to bring overt pressure on Belgrade to rejoin the Communist bloc. In Moscow's eyes, nonalignment has only compounded the sins of Yugoslavia's erring ways. The Soviets are well aware of the attraction Bel- grade holds for the developing nations and view its nonaligned activity as working at cross pur- poses and undercutting Soviet influence. How- ever, as long as nonalignment attacks colonialism and imperialism in terms acceptable to the Soviet Union, the Kremlin must tolerate it. The prob- lem, as Moscow sees it, is than. Yugoslavia takes its 4 September 1970 CONFIDENTIAL Approved For Release 2009/08/14: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500020044-2 Approved For Release 2009/08/14: CIA-RDP85T00875R001500020044-2 CON 1 II)1~;NTIAI, nonaligned neutrality seriously. It not only criti- cizes US involvement in South Vietnam but de- nounces the Soviet occupation of Czechoslovakia, and insists that both the US and Soviet fleets withdraw from the Mediterranean in the interest of peace. Belgrade began preparing for the upcoming summit early in 1968 but did not succeed in mustering enough support for a preparatory con- ference until 1969. In July of that year, 51 non- aligned nations met in Belgrade in what was a well-managed and low-key affair, but they hesi- tated to call a summit. The next step was a meeting of the foreign ministers of the nonaligned states in New York last September during the 24th UN General As- sembly session. I t was then decided to proceed with plans for a summit, and a second prepara- tory conference was set for this April in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. Tito and wife on arrival in Tanzania last Febru- ary as Yugoslavia's charismatic president continued his drive to drum up support for nonalignment. Before the Dar es Salaam gathering, how- ever, Tito began to use the power of his personal diplomacy to gain support for the summit. In late January and February lie toured eight east African nations, praising the merits of nonalign- ment at every stop. Tito's tour was paralleled by that of Dimce Belovski (head of the Yugoslav mass organization SWAPY) through seven west Special Report - 5 - President of the Revolutionary Command Council of Sudan, Jaafar Numayri,welcoming President Ti`o to Khartoum last February. African nations, and by Foreign Minister Tepavac's excursion to southeast Asia in March. Tito's tactic apparently worked. The meet- ing in Tanzania was attended by 51 countries and, to the surprise of many, proceeded swiftly and efficiently, side-stepping potential pitfalls and postponing settlement of the Cambodian and South Vietnamese representation problem until the summit itself. In all, approximately 74 nations have been approached on attending the meeting in Lusaka, and the latest count indicates 45 will be repre- sented. An anticipated additional 17 would raise this total to 62. Among the government heads committed to attend are Tito, India's Prime Min- ister Gandhi, and Emperor Haile Selassie of Ethiopia. Representatives of most of the African national liberation movements are expected to be on hand, as are delegates from the Palestinian Liberation Movement. The motives of those attending the Lusaka gathering are as varied as are the participants. For Cairo, as well as most of the Arab world, the 4 September 1970 CONFIDEN'1'IAI, Approved For Release 2009/08/14: CIA-RDP85T00875R001500020044-2 Approved For Release 2009/08/14: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500020044-2 CONFIDENTIAL DELEGATIONS EXPECTED TO ATTEND THE NONALIGNED SUMMIT Position on Cambodia Heading Delegation Afghanistan Premier Nur Ahmad Etemadi Algeria S Foreign Minister Bouteflika Botswana L President Seretse Khama Burundi President Micombaro Cameroon Vice President Muna Central African Republic President Bokassa Ceylon s Prime Minister Mrs. Bandaranaike Chad President Tombalbaye Congo (B) Congo (K) L President Mobutu Cuba S Cyprus N President M akarios Ethiopia Emperor Haile Selassie Equatorial Guinea President Macias Ghana N Prime Minister Kofi Busia Guinea S President of National Assembly Leon Maka Guyana Prime Minister Burnham India N Prime Minister Gandhi Indonesia L President Suharto Iraq Vice President Hardan Abd al-Ghaffar Kenya Vice President Moi Laos L Prince Souvarna Lenanon Foreign Minister Majdalani Liberia L Vice President Tolbert Malaysia L Deputy Prime Minister Razak Mali N Foreign Minister Sory Coulibaly Mauritania S President Ould Daddah Morocco Foreign Minister Abdelhadi Boutaleb Nepal King Mahendra Rwanda L Foreign Minister Sylvester Nsanzimana Senegal Both Foreign Minister Gueye Sierra Leone N Prime Minister Stevens Singapore L Premier Lee Kwan Yew Somalia S Foreign Minister Omar Arteh Sudan S President Numa,ri Swaziland Prime Minister Dhlamini Tanzania S President Nyerere Tunisia UAR S Foreign Minister Riad Uganda President Milton Obote Yugoslavia S President Tito Zambia President Kaunda S = Sihanouk L = Lon No[ N = Neither Cambodian Representative Also expected to attend as official or unofficial observers are: Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Equador, Gambia, Japan, Jordan, Kuwait, Malawi, penu, Jamaica, Somalia, Syria, Trinidad and Tobago, the Vatican, Colombia, the Yemen Arab Republic, Turkey and Venezuela. Special Report - 6 - 4 September 1970 CCINFTI T'M'I'TA 1 Approved For Release 2009/08/14: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500020044-2 Approved For Release 2009/08/14: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500020044-2 CONFIDEN'L'IAL, AFRICAN LIBERATION MOVEMENTS LIKELY TO PARTICIPATE AT THE SUMMIT" African National Congress Popular Movement for the. (ANG or SAANG) Liberation of Angola (MPLA) South West African People's Zimbabwe African National Union organization (SWAPO) (ZANU) Mozambique Liberation Front Zimbab African Peoples Union (FRELIMO) (ZAPU) Mozarnbiquo Revolutionary African Pa-:y for the Indo- Committee (COREMO) pendency, of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAGIC) Lusaka summit marks a return to overt support for nonalignment. Obviously the Arabs hope to gain support for their cause against Israel. It also provides them with a convenient forum from which to gain a strong endorsement of the rights of the Palestinians. Nasir, originally a major sup- porter of the movement, has had little time to devote to nonalignment since the June 1967 war, and he only returned to the fold after meeting with Tito last February at Aswan. India, by virtue of its historical ole in non- alignment, is committed to attend. New Delhi, however, even before Nehru's death, had begun changing its concept of nonalignment. Although its basic principle-zvoiding commitments to any great-power alliance system-has been maintained, Indian interest in association with a nonaligned bloc has waned, and the country's interests are now concentrated on South Asia. It is going to Lusaka with a view toward protecting its own particular interests and to see what benefits there may be for it in refurbishing its fading image as a leader of the nonaligned nations. For Indonesia, Asia's other giant neutral, the summit at first held out prospects of reasserting its international posture after several years of preoccupation with domestic policy following Sukarno's ouster. The overthrow of Cambodian Prince Sihanouk and Djakarta's strong support for Lon Nol has-to many who will be gathered at Lusaka-undercut Indonesia's credentials as a nonaligned nation. Special Report The Black African states take a particular pride in the summit because it is being held in Zambia. The attitudes of the various countries concerning the merits of nonalignment vary, but there is a general consensus that with Lusaka as host, the entire region has gained new prestige. Economic cooperation will be foremost in the minds of many Africans attending. Furthermore, for a few short days the world will be focusing on an international conference in which they will play a vital role. The Black African states, there- fore, have a vested interest in the success of the conference and will work toward this end. Some 12 Latin American countries may be in Lusaka. Each has its own reason for attending, but all view their presence as a means of self- expression. As the nations of Latin America move away from the United States politically, nonalign- ment becomes more attractive. Most of them are leery of both the USSR and the US, and therefore are willing to explore nonalignment as an al- ternative. In an effort to avoid the friction and tension that marred the Cairo summit, a broad, clearly defined agenda has been drafted for the Lusaka gathering. The major points for discussion will be: 1) a general review of the international situation; 2) the democratization of international relations as well as tha safeguarding and strengthening of peace, freedom, development, and cooperation; 3) the safeguarding of national independence, sovereignty, territorial integrity, and equality among states-including support for liberation movements and a strong anticolonial stance; and 4) the economic development and self-reliance of the nonaligned states. More iarrowly d3fined issues will include a strong restatement of support for the rights of the P;,lestinian Arabs. Portuguese, Rhodesian, and South African policies toward the blacks will come under strong attack as will Britain's decision to resume limited arms sales to South Africa. There also may be some movement toward 4 September 1970 CONFIDENTIAL Approved For Release 2009/08/14: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500020044-2 Approved For Release 2009/08/14: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500020044-2 CON Fl I )EN' I 1 AL developing a program of closer economic and technical cooperation between the nonaligned states with an emphasis on self-reliance. In addi- tion, support for Communist China's admittance to the United Nations is anticipated. The summit is expected to praise the first 25 years of the United Nations. Moreover, a special resolution calling for the strengthening of that organization (to be presented at the 25th UN General Assembly jubilee session) will be drafted. Among other things, the resolution is scheduled to call for the implementation of the 1960 UN Declarations on Decolonization, a statement of respect for national sovereignty and territorial integrity, the formulation of an international de- velopment strategy for the 1970s, a proclamation to make the 1970s the "Decade of Disarma- ment," and a "Declaration for Peace, Freedom, Development, and Democratization of Interna- tional Relations." A number of problems will have to be dealt with, however, i * the gathering is to be a success. First and foremost is the question of seating the rival Cambodian delegations. The preparatory meetings simply avoided the issue by referring it to the summit. At the moment neither the Sihanouk no,, the Lon Nol representatives appear to have enough support to win a seat, and a large number of prospective participants are in favor of recognizing neither. Many of those going to Lusaka who might otherwise favor seating Sihanouk or his group are concerned about the danger of setting a precedent in recognizing a government in exile. Despite rumors to the contrary, there is no evidence that Sihanouk intends to put in a per- sonal appearance at Lusaka. The possibility, how- ever, cannot be ruled out. Just what the impact of his presence would mean is difficult to say, but Lon Nol supporters are concerned that it could start a stampede on Sihanouk's behalf that would end in the seating of his government. For its part, the Lon Nol regime is actively lobbying for admission at Lusaka. Two delega- Special Report lions have been dispatched to Africa to present the Cambodian Government's case for a seat at the summit. The effort appears to be in vain, and best indications are that few, if any, converts will be made. All Lon Nol can realistically hope for is that these governments will abstain on the Cam- bodian question. At the moment, a quick count of the delegates committed to Lusaka indicates Lon Nol simply does not have enough support to gain a seat. The best bet now is that the issue will die in committee. Also touchy is the problem of seating the Communist Provisional Revolutionary Govern- ment of South Vietnam. As in the case of the Sihanouk delegation, a large number of those countries planning to attend the conference are wary of setting a controversial precedent. Furthermore, a great many of the delegates main- tain ties with Saigon, and the seating of the Viet Cong could cause the conference to Lreak down by making it impossible for nations such as Indonesia to continue its participation. It is un- likely, therefore, that any South Vietnamese delegation will be seated. The Lusaka summit will probably end on a positive note, with the nonaligned nations suc- cessfully drafting a program to present to the UN jubilee session in October. The final results, how- ever, will undoubtedly reflect the lowest common denominator upon which the participants can agree. Just as in Cairo in 1964, this will mean heavy emphasis on the broadest possible issues and a de-emphasis of specific problems. A major question for this meeting, however, is the future of nonalignment itself. As it was conceived and practiced in the late 1950s and early 1960s, nonalignment is no longer applicable to today's world in a meaningful way. It has limitations, and even Tito recognizes that his once-cherished dream of a large, cohesive bloc of nonaligned states dramatically ',nfluencing the course of world events has not borne fruit. If nonalignment is to survive and play a role in -8- 4 September 1970 CONFIDENTIAL Approved For Release 2009/08/14: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500020044-2 Approved For Release 2009/08/14: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500020044-2 CONFIDENTIAL world affairs, it obviously will have to undergo some basic changes. One possibility is to organize along regional lines. Most recently, the Ugandan Foreign Min- ister, Sam Oclaka, has suggested that future co- operation follow the example of the East African community-a loose organization providing a number of common services for and economic cooperation between Tanzania, Kenyc, and Uganda. The Lusaka summit could also be the end of Yugoslav predominance in the nonaligned move- ment. From the beginning, this has been Tito's pet pi oject; the rest of the Yugoslav leaders are somewhnt less enthusiastic, although they are nearly unanimous in recognizing the merits of the movement. Tito's years at the helm in Belgrade are numbered, and whoever follows him is un- likely to have the qualifications cr the drive to lead nonalignment. Moreover, most Yugoslav leaders are looking for more immediate and more relevant returns. Furthermore, Yugoslavia itself has changed drastically. Belgrade now feels its security and future lie in a loose association with the West, and it is actively and successfully cultivating a wide range of political and economic contacts in Western Europe-including a recent and signifi- cant agreement with the Common Market. Al- though the new generation of Yugoslav loaders will undoubtedly continue to cultivate Belgrade's political and economic ties in the third world, nonalignment will no longer hold center stage in its foreign policy. The real challenge for the delegates gathered at Lusaka will be to lay the foundation for a movement that can transcend Tito's personality and survive with a smaller Yugoslav commitment. Chances are that neither Nasir, Mrs. Gandhi, nor Suharto has the time or interest to lend prestige to such an endeavor. If a new moving spirit is to appear, it will probably come from among one of the better developed but smaller states that pro- fess nonalignment as a policy. 25X1 25X1 Special Report - 9 - 4 September 1970 CONFIDENTIAL Approved For Release 2009/08/14: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01500020044-2