THE POLITICAL SITUATION IN ECUADOR

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00875R001100100135-6
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 16
• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Document Release Date: November 6, 2008
• Sequence Number: 135
• Publication Date: November 22, 1971
• Content Type: IM

 Approved For Release 2008/11/06: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01100100135-6
Secret
25X1
DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
intelligence Memorandum
The Political Situation in Ecuador
State Dept. review
completed
Secret
22 November 1971
No. 2099/71
7j
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 Approved For Release 2008/11/06: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01100100135-6
Approved For Release 2008/11/06: CIA-RDP85T00875RO01100100135-6
 Approved For Release 2008/11/06: CIA-RDP85T00875R001100100135-6
SECRET
CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
Directorate of Intelligence
22 November 1971
The Political Situation in Ecuador
Summary
President Jose Maria Velasco has set in motion
the machinery necessary for general elections next
June, but he is reluctant to allow the opposition,
such as it is, much latitude. As a result, the
most popular civilian opposition leader remains in
exile and other politicians spend a day or two in
jail if their sentiments become too openly or
strongly antigovernment. Velasco may not relax
these controls enough to hold a free election;
although he cannot
iegaiiy serve two consecutive terms, he may decide
to prolong his tenure.
One factor that could complicate Velasco's
election plans is the economic situation. If it
deteriorates badly, the military may feel obliged
to step in, either directly or through a civilian
figurehead.
The recent spate of seizures of US tuna boats
operating within Ecuador's claimed 200-mile terri-
torial waters limit has given the government a use-
ful propaganda issue. Even so, some military offi-
cers are discontented because the seizures have
caused a continued suspension of US military sales.
Note: This memorandum was produced soZeZy by CIA.
It was prepared by the office of Current InteZZi-
gence and coordinated within CIA.
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Background
1. Ecuador's principal political problem has
always been the lack of a broad electorate with
enough sophistication to want and to recognize na-
tional political leadership dedicated to improving
the well-being of the country. In the absence of
this leadership, the populace turns to the dema-
"Ecuador is a very difficult country
to govern."
gogic strong man who
promises some semblance
of change. As a result
of Velasco's charisma,
he has been able to
maintain his popular
appeal for more than
35 years, continuing
to cut across social
d economic lines
President Jose Maria Velasco Ibarra
193435 (ousted)
1 J44 47 (ousted)
1952 56 (completed term)
1960 61 (ousted)
1968 70 (assumed dictatorial powers)
1970-?
2. Ecuador's geog-
raphy has exacerbated
its political problems,
because the country is
divided into three dis-
tinct regions (plus the
Galapagos Islands, some
600 nautical miles to
the west). The hot
coastal area where the
commercial center,
Guayaquil, is located,
has little in common
with the Andean region
with its large Indian
population and the cap-
ital city, Quito. In
the east is Amazonian
jungle that is only now,
with the discovery of
large oil reserves,
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beginning to enter the modern world. Regional
rivalries are so intense that Ecuador's oldest
political parties, the Liberals and Conservatives,
are based primarily in the coast and the highlands,
respectively. In addition, the historic struggle
for dominance between the legislature and the ex-
ecutive has prevented development of a government
strong enough to resist determined military oppo-
sition.
3. One manifestation of the basic insecurity
of Ecuadorean political life occurs in foreign af-
fairs. Much of the territory governed from Quito
in colonial times now is controlled by Peru, Colom-
bia, and Brazil, and Ecuadorean leaders are defen-
sive about their lack of influence in world affairs.
As a result, they cling to national grudges; the
anniversary of the ending of a war with Peru in
1941 only recently ceased to be a pretext for dem-
onstrations and jingoistic speeches.
4. A more serious matter has arisen in con-
nection with Ecuador's claim of a 200-mile terri-
torial waters limit. During the first three months
of 1971 the government picked up 26 American fish-
ing boats that were operating within this area and
collected some $1 million in fines. As a result,
provisions of the Foreign Military Sales Act sus-
pending sales to Ecuador came into effect. Ecuador
then expelled the US Military Group. Ecuador also
took the fishing issue before the Organization of
American States, but a compromise was worked out
that avoided condemnation of the US for economic
coercion.
5. Last month, however, Foreign Minister Garcia
informed the US ambassador that Ecuador planned
strict enforcement of its licensing requirements
during the current tuna season. He indicated that
Ecuador would raise the issue not only in the OAS
but also in the UN and any other forum available.
On 10 November Ecuador began seizing boats, picking
up 15 in five days. This automatically extended the
military sales suspension, which runs for one year
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from the date of the most recent seizure, so the
issue can be expected to perturb US-Ecuadorean re-
lations for some time to come.
Velasco and the Military
6. The armed forces, now as always the ulti-
mate arbiters of politics in Ecuador, backed Velasco
when he assumed dictatorial powers in June 1970.
This step was taken because of student disorders
and an unfavorable decision by the Supreme Court
on the constituti