DEVELOPMENTS IN INDOCHINA

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00875R001100010021-2
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: T
• Document Page Count: 12
• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 5, 2008
• Sequence Number: 21
• Publication Date: March 21, 1973
• Content Type: SUMMARY

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Top Secret
,0 4% top
-EINUffn 10.
Developnents? in Indochina
State Dept. review completed
Top Secret
1 1, -+
21 March 1973
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(information au of 1600)
SOUTH VIETNAM
The government has launched a major
operation to relieve Communist pressure
on Rach Ba . Tonle Cham is still threat-
ened.
The Viet
Cong are still not satis Vied with the
arrangements for the Two Party Military
Commission.
CAMBODIA
The government is using its emer-
gency powers to tighten controls over
the population, and there are uncon-
firmed reports that In Tam has been
arrested. Insurgent attacks picked up
on 21 March.
LAOS
The negotiations remain stalled,
and there are no signs that the chief
Communist negotiator is on his way
back to Vientiane. Very little mili-
tary activity was reported on 20 March.
Pathet Lao envoys are busy trying to
organize political support among monks
and students in Vientiane. Three
countries have made contributions to
25X1 the Foreign Exchange Fund.
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SOUTH VIETNAM
The Military Situation
The government has begun a major campaign to
relieve Communist pressure against Rach Bap, north
of Saigon. According to a South Vietnamese mili-
tary spokesman, the operation is the second largest
the government has undertaken since the cease-fire
went into effect. The government reportedly is
threatening to begin a similar effort against North
Vietnamese forces attacking Tonle Cham, farther
north on the Tay Ninh - Binh Long provincial border.
The Communists shelled Tonle Cham's defenders
with more than 500 rounds of artillery and mortar
fire on 20 March. At last report the Communists
had edged to within 500 feet of the base.
The camp over-
oo s an in i tration corridor along the Saigon
River from Cambodia to central Binh Duong Province.
In the northern provinces, the Communists
shelled and lightly probed government positions in
the Song Bo Valley west of Hue where the South
Vietnamese hold important high ground overlooking
North Vietnamese infiltration routes to the low-
lands. To the west, aerial photography detected
Communist truck traffic and several light tanks
along roads in the A Shau Valley region on 20
March. In Quang Tri Province, the combat activity
of both sides fell to the lowest level in nearly
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Maneuvering Over the PRG
In a conversation with US officials, another
Hungarian ICCS delegate claimed that the PRG will
insist on moving its delegation from the Tan Son
Nhut compound into either downtown Saigon or %a con-
tested area when the Four Party Joint Military Com-
mission expires and their North Vietnamese col-
leagues depart. In addition, a Polish official has
claimed that PRG representatives to regional sites
might go directly to their assignments from Viet
Cong controlled areas, symbolically bypassing the
Saigon government.
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CAMBODIA
Government ControZo
The government continues to tighten controls
over the population. The National Assembly on 21
March ratified the state of emergency recently promul-
gated by Lon Nol. The extra-legal powers granted
the government will be in force for six months.
Strict censorship laws have been announced. In an
apparent effort to prevent students and teachers from
assembling on an organized basis, the government has
rescinded an earlier decree ordering the resumption
of classes next week. Instead, the students have
been called on to "participate in the defense and
development of the Republic."
In Tam Arrested?
a wide popular following in the capital, he has no
organized civilian support and is disliked by many
of the military. Even so, his arrest would almost
certainly increase the political tension and con-
fusion that has been building in Phnom Penh since
the violent events of 17 March.
Rumors that the government is arresting scores
of opposition elements continue to circulate in
Phnom Penh, but the US Embassy reports that thus far
there are no signs of large-scale roundups. Three
sons of Sihanouk's Peking-based "prime minister,"
Penn Nouth, and former pro-Sihanouk presidential
candidate Keo An apparently have been detained for
questioning.
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Negotiat,ionr) Still Stalled
The government's draft protocols presented on
21 March to the joint groups charged with working
out political and military details of the peace
agreement produced no more than general and in-
The Communist negotiators claim they are
not competent to deal with the exact composition of
a new government--an issue central to resolution of
most of the political details in the protocols.
They indicate that this decision will have to be
made by Souvanna and a senior Communist official,
presumably Phoumi Vongvichit.
Phoune Sipraseuth, the ranking Pathet Lao
negotiator at the meetings, refused to say when
Phoumi would return from Sam Neua. In response to
a direct question, Phoune stated that the Communist
side considered that the Lao peace agreement would
still be in force if a new government was not formed
by the 23 March deadline.
Pathet Lao Proselyting Efforts
Pathet Lao envoys in Vientiane to negotiate
with the governr,ient have begun to organize political
support in the non-Communist zone. In late February,
for example, Maha Kou Souvannamethi, a leader of Com-
munist religious fronts, and Phoumi Vongvichit met
with influential Buddhist monks in Vientiane to ask
them to pressure the government to adhere to the
peace agreement. Phoumi requested a list of monks
possibly sympathetic to the Pathet Lao. He reportedly
already had letters for monks in other areas of the
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25X1
country.
There is no evidence of any significant results
from their efforts. The monks in Vientiane are
usually indifferent to politics, and student leaders
merely deposited the Communist propaganda offerings
in the library. Nevertheless, the Communists are
likely to keep on trying to build grass-roots sup-
port. Government leaders, in contrast, seem to be
making little real effort to gain popular backix1g.
aenerated by war-related government deficits.
Headway on Aid Agreements
The US, France, and the United Kingdom this
week signed pledges to the $27-million Foreign Ex-
change Operations Fund (FEOF). Procedural problems
caused by the world monetary situation have led
Japan and Australia to postpone signing, probably
until next month. Since donations of individual
countries are, in effect, negotiated r rici signed
bilaterally, the FEOF is certain of at least $23
million in new donations and carry-over from last
year, and can continue to operate without Japan
and Australia. The FEOF provides part of the for-
eign exchange needed to make up the Laotian trade
deficit. It also helps by absorbing local currency
21 March 1973
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