CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00875R000800020080-0
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 14
• Document Creation Date: December 19, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 10, 2002
• Sequence Number: 80
• Publication Date: April 11, 1972
• Content Type: BULL

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No Foreign Dissem
DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intelligence Bulletin
L,
State Dept. declassification & release instructions on file
sawa1t
NP 542
11 April 1972
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3(cire.
The CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE 13ULLETIN is produced by the
Director of Central Intelligence to meet his responsibilities for providing
current intelligence hearing on issues of national security to the President,
the National Security Council, and other senior government officials. It
is produced in consultation with the Departments of State and Defense.
When, because of the time factor, adequate consultation with the depart-
ment of primary concern is not feasible, items or portions thereof are pro-
duced by CIA and enclosed in brackets.
Interpretations of intelligence information in this publication represent
immediate and preliminary views which are subject to modification in the
light of further information and more complete analysis.
Certain intelligence items in this publication may be designated specifically
for no further dissemination. Other intelligence items may be disseminated
further, but only on a need-to-know basis.
WARNING
This document contains information affecting the national
defense of the United States, within toe meaning of Title
18, sections 793 and 794, of the US Code, as amended.
Its transmission or revelation of its contents to or re-
ceipt by an unauthorized person is prohibited by law.
GROUP 1
Excluded from oulomalie
downgrading and
declassification
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No. 0087/72
11 April 1972
Central intelligence Bulletin
SOUTH VIETNAM: Saigon forces report successes in
northern provinces. (Page 1)
PAKISTAN: Showdown may develop between Bhutto and
National Awami Party chief. (Page 3)
CHILE: Socialist party leaders insist on more radi-
cal measures. (Page 4)
ARGENTINA: Political violence reaches dangerous
level. (Page 5)
KOREA: Seoul and Pyongyang agree to begin formal
Red Cross talks. (Page 6)
YUGOSLAVIA: Controversy over foreign exchange earn-
ings continues. (Page 7)
USSR-TURKEY: Podgorny visit (Page 8)
EGYPT-JORDAN: Cairo cuts off commerce (Page 8)
FINLAND-US: Helsinki's difficulties in achieving
EC agreement (Page 9)
PERU-FRANCE: French nuclear testing (Page 9)
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NO FOREIGN DISSEM
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SOUTH VIETNAM: South Vietnamese forces are
reporting some successes in the northern provinces
and enemy pressure has eased momentarily along the
Cambodian border north of Saigon.
West of Quang Tri city, at Fire Support Base
Pedro, Saigon forces report that they killed sev-
eral hundred North Vietnamese troops and destroyed
more than a dozen tanks on 9 April. They are claim-
ing hundreds more enemy dead and nine additional
tanks knocked out near Dong Ha where another strong
Communist push reportedly was stopped in weekend
fighting. There have been a number of other smaller
battles in Quang Tri Province. It now appears that
the North Vietnamese have committed all of the 202nd
Tank Regiment, with some 140-160 tanks, south of the
DMZ. South Vietnamese troops also report killing
scores of North Vietnamese while beating back enemy
assaults in Thua Thien Province west of Hue on 9-10
April.
The commander of ARVN forces in the northern
military region, General Lam, has asserted that his
troops have inflicted severe damage on the attacking
North Vietnamese forces. However, sensors in both
the eastern DMZ area and in western Thua Thien con-
tinue to show extensive enemy movements, indicating
that additional strong Communist attacks are being
prepared.
To the north of Saigon, Communist attacks
against the capital of Binh Long Province, An Loc,
have eased, but government reinforcements en route
to the city are still being delayed by a Communist
blocking force on Route 13. Senior South Vietnamese
officers a;:e particularly concerned about the situa-
tion in Binh Long as the North Vietnamese continue
to move troops into the province and seem bent on
seizing and holding territory. The army has been
ordered to make a "maximum effort" to keep An
Loc out of enemy hands.
(continued)
11 Apr 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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EThere is additional evidence that the Commu-
nists are telling their troops that the ...current
offensive is the biggest and most important ever.
In a notebook captured in the recent fighting
northwest of Saigon, the author wrote that the
current campaign would be greater than that of
Tet 1968 and a "more decisive success than Dien
Bien Phu." In the central highlands a recently
captured North Vietnamese prisoner says that his
unit was told the offensive there would last
through June.
Elsewhere in the country the Communists con-
tinue harassing attacks, but there were no new
major engagements. (SECRET NO FOREIGN DISSEM)
11 Apr 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin
1prr
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PAKISTAN: President Bhutto and Wali Khan, the
leader of the National Awami party (NAP),, while
trying to avoid an open confrontation, are running
the risk of a showdown.
Following the breakdown in the agreement be-
tween the NAP and Bhutto, Wali arnounced that a
coalition headed by the NAP would be the de jure
government in the Northwest Frontier Province. He
may not, however, intend for it to exercise power
in place of the existing representatives of the
central government. One NAP leader told reporters
that the de jure chief minister would issue no or-
ders.
Bhutto has not moved directly against Wali, but
is trying to undercut him. The government plans to
publish the correspondence of the political leaders
in an effort to place the blame for the dispute on
the NAP, I 25X1X
I I B iutto in-
tends to end martial aw during e National Assem-
bly session beginning 14 April, 'thereby depriving
Wall of his main issue.
Bhutto is also trying to threaten Wali's pros-
pects for political control in the Northwest. Fron-
tier Province by forming an alliance with a faction
of the moderate Muslim League, the second strongest
party there. Wali's group is still the stronger,
but it does not have a majority in the provincial
assembly.
The US Embassy believes that neither of the
political leaders wants the situation to deterio-
rate into civil disorder. The embassy, neverthe-
less, warns that Bhutto's "patience may wear thin
at Wali's continual grasping for more, and a show-
down could develop." (CONFIDENTIAL)
11 Apr 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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CHILE: Impatient with what it considers Pres-
ident AAllende's "rightist deviations," the hardline
leadership of his Socialist Party is insisting on
more radical means to consolidate the power of the
Popular Unity (UP) coalition.
25X1 C
Both major coalition parties appear confident
of winning the 1973 congressional elections. The
Socialist leaders' growing dissatisfaction with the
preference of Allende and the Communists for legal-
ity, however, led Sepulveda oa. 5 April to tell So-
cialist colleagues that "painful decisions" might
soon have to be faced. He even hinted at a Social-
ist break with the UP.
The problems of power have aggravated strains
in the 20-year Socialist-Communist political alli-
ance, but a total break seems unlikely. Many So-
cialists oppose the party's present leadership, and
its insistence on radical alternatives could lead
to another in the long series of Socialist splits.
(SECRET NO FOREIGN DISSEM)
11 Apr 72
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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ARGENTINA: Political violence was brought to
a new and dangerous level yesterday with the assas-
sination of General Sanchez and the mt:rder of the
Fiat executive kidnaped last month.
General Juan Carlos Sanchez was machine-gunned
in his car yesterday, by the same People's Revolu-
tionary Army (ERP) responsible for the kidnaping of
Italian industriali;,t Oberdan Sallustro on 21 March.
The assassination of Sanchez, commander of the II
Army Corps in Rosario, came a few hours before
Sallustro was shot when police closed in on a "peo-
ple's prison" in a suburb of Buenos Aires.
Coming hardy on the heels of the violence in
Mendoza last week, the two murders are likely to
bring even greater pressure on President Lanusse.
Last Friday he announced the suspension of the
utility rate increase that touched off four days
of violence in Mendoza and other provincial cities,
but this does not reach the heart of the problem.
Rapidly rising inflation and glowing unemployment,
particularly in the provinces, have created a sit-
uation where violence is always just below the sur-
face, and left-wing terrorists and labor agitators
have all the conditions necessary to create serious
trouble for the government.
The military high command yesterday issued a
communique pledging their continued support for
President Lanusse and his effort to move Argentina
toward elections next year. If the economy and the
security situation continue to deteriorate, however,
many officers will begin to search for an alterna-
tive to Lanusse and his political and economic pol-
icies. (CONFIDENTIAL)
11 Apr 72
Central intelligence Bulletin
SECRET
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SECRET
X1C
-`j5X1 C
KOREA: Seoul and Pyongyang have agreed to move
to formal Red Cross discussions within a month.
The agreement comes ,.fter almost eight months 25X1C
of preliminary haggling at Panmunjom over the agenda
for the formal meetings that will focus on reunitin
The beginning of plenary sessions does not nec-
essarily mean that significant progress in the nego-
tiations is in the offing. While Pyongyang has con-
sistently pressed for more rapid action, Seoul has
remained cautious. Its decision to move now prob-
ably reflects increased interest in testing Pyong-
yang's intentions as well as demonstrating a posi-
The North Koreans have long pressed for broad-
ening the Red Cross talks to include a range of
political issues. Their response to Seoul's over-
ture may indicate that Pyongyang too believes that
the formal sessions could also be useful in that
context. Moreover, both sides may calculate that
the plenary meetings, which will be held alternately
in Seoul and Pyongyang, will provide more private
and favorable circumstances for a dialogue on sensi-
tive issues than Panmunjom offers. (SECRET NO FOR-
EIGN DISSEM)
11 Apr 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin
25X1 C
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SECRET
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SECRET
YUGOSLAVIA: The recent wave of resignations
by enterpr se directors in Slovenia indicates that
the long-standing conflict over the allocation of
foreign exchange earnings among the republics has
yet to be resolved.
The resignations, triggered by a recent fed-
eral cabinet decision to reduce the portion of for-
eign exchange earnings that individual enterpr=ses
can use for importing raw materials, are a protest
against the federal government's development policy.
This is part of the larger economic issue that pre-
cipitated the riots in Croatia last November. Some
officials in the more developed republics--Slovenia
and Croatia--have long argued that their economies
are stagnating because valuable hard currency is
being siphoned off to the less developed republics
to support uneconomic investments. Firms in Slo-
venia and Croatia complain that they are unable to
use their hard currency earnings to purchase modern
technology in the West.
The current dispute centers on economic losses
anticipated by Slovenian firms engaged in the assem-
bly of products from imported parts. The federal
government hopes that by reducing the foreign ex-
change retention quota, imports of parts and raw
materials will decline. Slovenian businessmen
argue, however, that profits and foreign exchange
earnings will decline because export plans will be
upset.
Although some ">lovenes are directly challenging
federal authority in this matter, they are not prey
to nationalist agitation, as was the Croat leader-
ship in its dispute with Relgrade last year. If
the Slovenes continue to restrict their opposition
to the economic sphere, no political upheaval is
likely. Periodic squabbles between regional and
federal officials, hc,wever, are likely. (CONFI-
DENTIAL)
11 Apr 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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SECRET
USSR-TURKEY: Soviet President Podgorny's one-
week visit to Turkey, which begins today, probably
will be a routine affair. The Turks will resist
signing either a friendship or consultation agree-
ment with the Soviets, but Ankara may agree to a
"declaration of principles" to record a desire for
improved relations. Podgorny, who is returning the
'visit of President Sunay to the USSR in 1969, prob-
ably will not complain to the Turks about the cur-
rent Turkish crackdown on leftists. (CONFIDENTIAL)
EGYPT-JORDAN: Cairo's move to cut off all com-
mercial dealings with Jordan by the end of this
month w4,l? have little impact. Trade between the
two countries has been increasing, but it remains
relatively unimportant for both. The closure of
Egyptian airspace to Jordan's commercial airline,'
a move that is reportedly under study in Cairo,
would be more serious. With both Egyptian and Syr-
ian airspace closed, the airline would lose all
practical direct access to Lebanon and Western Eu-
rope. (CONFIDENTIAL)
(continued)
11 Apr 72 Central Intelligerce Bulletin
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FINLAND-US: A senior Foreign Ministry official
has complained that the US is opposing Helsinki's
efforts to achieve an agreement with the EC. The
official told the US economic counselor in Helsinki
on 6 April that US lobbying in EC capitals to pre-
veiit shortening the tariff reduction period on pa-
per amounted to "interference in the internal af-
fairs of a foreign cou;itry." The charge reflects
Finland's frustration in negotiations in which an
equitable tariff on paper, a commodity that consti-
tutes a significant portion of Finnish exports to an
expanded EC, is the keystone of any agreement. The
Finnish Government may have a tough time getting
parliamentary approval for any agreement with the EC.
If a subsequent draft agreement:is rejected because
of the tariff on paper, the US probably would be
publicly blamed. (CONFIDENTIAL NO FOREIGN DISSEM)
PERU-FRANCE: French efforts to improve rela-
tions apparently have failed to lessen Peru's de-
termination to break relations if Paris resumes nu-
clear testing in the Pacific. President Velasco
has told the US ambassador that, although hc. real-
izes France is trying hard to avoid such a rupture,
his public stance on the issue makes the announced
Peruvian intention irreversible. A final test, of
marginal scientific value to the French, was can-
celed last year after Peru protested. Since tf(..n
France has cultivated assiduously the Velasco re-
gime in an attempt to forestall an adverse reaction
when testing in the atmosphere resumes this summer.
(SECRET NO FOREIGN DISSEM)
11 Apr 72
Central intelligence Bulletin 9
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