CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00875R000800020049-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: December 19, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 15, 2002
• Sequence Number: 49
• Publication Date: March 1, 1972
• Content Type: BULL

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No Foreign Dissem
DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intellzence Bulletin
State Dept. declassification & release instructions on file
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CuMENT Smmlffs BURC-ld semet
FILE COPY N2 551
1 March 1972
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senwat
The CENT3AL INTELLIGENCE BUL L EVN is produced by the
Director of Central Intelligence to meet his responsibilities for providing
current intelligence bearing on issues of national security to the President,
the National Security Council, and other senior government officials. It
is produced in consultation with the Departments of State and Defense.
When, because of the time factor, adequate consultation with the depart-
inent of primary concern is not feasible, items or portions thereof are pro-
duced by CIA and enclosed in brackets.
Interpretations of intelligence information in this publication represent
immediate and preliminary views which are subject to modification in the
light of further information and more complete analysis.
Certain intelligence items in this publication may be designated specifically
for no further dissemination. Ot'.icr intelligence item:; may be disseminated
further, but only on a need-to-know basis.
WARNING
This document contains information affecting the national
defense of the United States, within the meaning of Title
18, sections 793 and 794, of the US Code, as amended.
Its transmission or revelation of its contents to or re-
ceipt by an unauthorized person is prohibited by-law.
GROUP 1
Excludad from automatic
downgrading and
declassification
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No. 0052/72
1 March 1972
Central Intelligence bulletin
5X6
CHINA-US: Airport turnout for Chou underlines Pe-
king's endorsement of President Nixon's visit.
(Page 1)
USSR-BANGLADESH: Mujib's visit likely to result in
aid agreements. (Page 6)
USSR: Industrial production in January. (Page 7)
TURKEY: Leftist influence in armed forces under
investigation. (Page 9)
HONDURAS: Resurgence of interest in replacing
President Cruz. (Page 10)
URUGUAY: Prospects for disruptions at presiden-
tial inauguration (Page 12)
IRAN: Terrorism at government rally (Page 12)
GRENADA: Landslide victory for ruling party (Page 13)
SWEDEN: Housewives demonstrate (Page 13)
JAMAICA: Opposition electoral victory (Page 13)
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SECRET
*CHINA-US: Peking's leaders have underlined
for the Chinese people their endorsement of Presi-
dent Nixon's visit.
A crowd of 5,000 people was on hand at Peking
airport to greet Chou En-tai on his return from
Shanghai--a highly unusual turnout for such an oc-
casion. The official account of this greeting sets
the scene firmly in an atmosphere of unity: virtu-
ally all active members of the politburo resident
in Peking were on hand, and the account stressed the
point that "commanders and fighters of the People's
Liberation Army" were present. The account also
made the unusual point that all members of the pol-
itburo--including Mao's wife and ideologist Yao Wen-
yuan, who were deeply involved in Red Guard excesses
during the Cultural. Revolution--"warmly" shook hands
with Chou and his party.
The account additionally stressed that all pres-
ent "expressed warm support for Chairman Mao's revo-
lutionary line in foreign affairs and their resolve
to carry it out" and quoted slogans to this effect,
as well as others singling out Chou for special wel-
come. It notes that, when the premier appeared, the
airport "became a scene of jubilation," with people
beating drums and gongs and waving bouquets.
Such unusual treatment of what would normally
be a routine domestic flight on the part of the pre-
mier back to the capital after seeing off a foreign
dignitary in Shanghai serves several purposes: to
make it clear that the Chinese leaders are generally
pleased with the presidential visit as a whole, to
endorse the terms of the joint communique, and to
add obliquely the approval of the military establish-
ment and of Mao himself to that of the government of-
ficials who were involved in the actual negotiations,
and to underline the strong position of Chou En-tai
1 Mar 7 2 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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SECRET
in the present structure of power in Peking. In-
deed, it is quite possible that Chou's hand has been
strengthened by the generally favorable atmosphere
produced by the President's visit. (CONFIDENTIAL)
*Because of the shortage of time for preparation of this item, the analytic
interpretation presented here has been produced by the Central Intelli-
gence Agency without the participation of the Defense Intelligence
Agency, Department of Defense.
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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USSR-BANGLADESH: Prime Minister Mujibur Rah-
man's visit to Moscow is likely to result in the
first Soviet aid agreements with Bangladesh.
A ten-man Soviet economic delegation has been
in Dacca since 15 February exploring the possibility
of assistance in development, reconstruction, and
water control. The Soviets are interested in re-
suming work on aid projects interrupted by the re-
cent Indo-Pakistani war. Prior to independence,
they had allocated an estimated $70 million for
projects in East Pakistan. Most of these projects
still are unfinished.
Another Soviet delegation has been exploring
the feasibility of assistance to Bangladesh's
fledging national airline, hence it is possible
that a civil aviation agreement also will be an-
nounced during Mujib's visit. In early February,
the two sides signed a short-term barter agreement
for the exchange of about $14 million worth of
goods.
The Soviets have been working hard to capi-
talize on their favorable position in Bangladesh.
New Delhi's displeasure with the degree to which
the Soviets have cultivated Dacca reportedly lies
behind Indian policy planning chief Dhar's current
visit to Moscow. Dhar is attempting to secure
better Soviet-Indian coordination of relations with
Bangladesh. (SECRET NO FOREIGN DISSEM)
1 Mar 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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USSR: Soviet industrial production got off to
a weak start in January because of severe wince=
weather, the aftereffects of last year's disap-
pointing harvest, and continuing problems in the
management of investment programs.
Moscow announced that industrial output grew
by six percent last month compared with January
1971, the lowest January results since monthly data
were first released in the mid-1960s. By Western
calculations, civilian industrial production actu-
ally rose by only 4.3 percent, compared with 5.5
percent in January 1971 and 6.1 percent in January
1970.
Some of the coldest weather in years curbed
production in the extractive industries. The oil,
gas, timber and wood processing, construction ma.-
terialc and fishing ministries failed even to meet
their January plan targets. The growth in the out-
put of processed foods was r; all as a result of a
poor harvest of sugar beets and sunflower: seeds
last fall and a decline in the production of whole
milk products. The official report claimed that
the failure to bring new capacity into operation
on schedule had caused some plan underfulfillment,
notably in the output of several consumer goods.
Industrial support for agriculture also faltered
in comparison with recent years.
In a few areas, however, the January record
was good. The production of civilian machinery
increased by 8.4 percent, and electric power rose
by 11 percent.
Soviet industrial ministries are holding in-
quiries to determine the reasons for the poor Janu-
ary showing, and the press warned that corrective
measures must be carried out quickly. In 1.969
industrial production got off to a poor start in
icy weather and finished the year with one of the
lowest rates of growth since %brld War II. (CONFI-
DENTIAL)
1 Mar 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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TURKEY: Military leaders are continuing their
investigation of leftist influence in the armed
forces.
organizations seem to have had some success in in-,
fluencing young naval officers.
ticers have not been implicated, but the leftist
Thus far army of::
Security measures have been tightened around
the Ministry of Defense and at top military head-
quarters in the Ankara area in the wake of the of-
ficers' arrest. There are also indications that
Air Force Commander General Batur may be removed
from his command because of leftist penetration of
the air force. Any immediate move in this direction,
however, may be held in abeyance in order to main-
tain the semblance of unanimity among the top mili-
tary leadership, at least until the full extent of
leftist influence can be determined.
Despite the arrests and the resultant security
measures, there has been no suggestion that a wide-
spread purge of the armed forces is imminent or
that any specific plot has been uncovered. (SECRET
NO FOREIGN DISSEM)
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HONDURAS: An outbreak of violence in connec-
tion with the land reform program has prompted a
resurgence of interest in replacing President Cruz.
In a conversation with the US ambassador, Chie=
of the Armed Forces General Lopez blamed Cruz' in-
competence and mismanagement for recent violence in
the remote department of Olancho where six peasants
and one police sergeant were killed. The violence
resulted from police and army efforts to expel some
100 peasants who had settled on private land. Lopez
considers Cruz ultimately at fault for placing an
incompetent official in charge of the National Agrar-
ian Institute. His opinion is in part substantiated
by Colonel Melgar, the new chief of police, who is
personally investigating the killings. Melgar says
the peasants were innocent, having settled on land
they had paid for in good faith.
Lopez cited other examples of Cruz' inability
to govern, including his alienation of the business
sector by mismanagement of tax and import conces-
sion matters, his inability to control student dis-
turbances, and his lack of influence even within his
own party. Unsettled conditions in the country have
had the rumor mill buzzing for months, and this
latest violence has apparently placed Lopez under
great pressure to act. Lopez still professes that
he has no desire to resume the presidency but admits
that he might have to do so for a "short period."
(CONFIDENTIAL)
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S.91, C.R E'.L'
5X1X
URUGUAY: The Tupamaros may try to disrupt the
inauguration of President-elect Juan T3ordaberr to-
!1a
ey may even at:
:
routpu cm
or a erry. The Tupamaros prob-
ably have the capability to make a well-planned and
coordinated attempt on the President-elect or other-
wise to disrupt the ceremonies. The prospect of
severe retribution by the security services and the
fact that a terrorist leader presumably involved
in the operation has been arrested, however, may
cause them to reconsider. (SECRET NO FOREIGN DISSEM)
IRAN: Terrorists yesterday disrupted a govern-
ment-directed mass rally in Tehran with three ex-
plosions which killed one person and injured five
others. The rally was part of a countrywide day of
demonstrations held to protest an alleged campaign
of sabotage and terrorism by "domestic and foreign"
enemies of Iran, particularly Iraq. The major ex-
plosion, apparently from a home-made bomb, went off
among demonstrators in Tehran's main square. The
government, concerned over increased terrorist ac-
tivity, had intended to use these demonstrations as
a warning to dissidents that they cannot count on
public sympathy for anti-regime activities. As a
result of yesterday's incident, the Shah will no
doubt redouble his efforts to weed out and control
anti-government elements. (CONFIDENTIAL)
(continued)
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SECRE'1,
GRENADA: The ruling Grenada United Labor Party
(GULPS ec by Premier Eric Gairy was swept back into
office for another five-year term. The GULP, which
has held office for a total of 12 years since 1951,
won 13 of the 15 seats in the House of Assembly.
Gairy's wife was one of three women to capture house
seats. Gairy will view his landslide victory as a
mandate `.o carry out his pre-election promise to ask
the British to grant the island independence at the
earliest opportunity. (CONFIDENTIAL NO FOREIGN DIS-
SEM)
SWEDEN: Housewives in a number of Swedish
communities demonstrated against food prices last
week. Prime Minister Palme accepted a petition on
28 February but failed to dampen the protest move-
ment. Milk strikes, meat boycotts, and other types
of protests are scheduled for this week. The dem-
onstrations, which appeared spontaneous, may de-
velop a political orientation if the government
fails to assuage consumer complaints. Food price
increases scheduled to go into effect today will
exacerbate the problem. (CONFIDENTIAL)
JAMAICA: The opposition People's National
Par L PNP, , led by Michael Manley, won the right to
form the next government after defeating the in-
cumbent Jamaica Labor Party in the 29 February gen-
eral election. The PNP won 27 of the 53 House of
Representatives seats in the early returns for a
majority and was leading in nine other constituen-
cies. Although minor violence has grown at a steady
rate since general elections were announced on 31
January, the campaign has been notable for the over-
all prevalence of law and order. Post-election
violence by disgruntled losers is likely, but, as
a former British Colony, Jamaica has a long tradi-
tion of respect for law and order, and any dis-
orders are likely to be short-lived. Local secu-
rity forces should be capable of maintaining con-
trol. it is unlikely that the Manley government
will alter significantly the domestic and foreign
policies of the country. (CONFIDENTIAL)
1 Mar 72 Contral Intelligence Bulletin
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