CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00875R000800020012-5
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 20
• Document Creation Date: December 19, 2016
• Document Release Date: January 15, 2002
• Sequence Number: 12
• Publication Date: January 15, 1972
• Content Type: BULL

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
No Foreign Di .fem
Central Intelligence bulletin
State Dept. declassification & release instructions on file
Secret
N2 591
15 January 1972
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Se ret
'I'll(- CENTRAL INTI LLIC:ENCE 13UL1,I TIN is produced by the
I)irtxtor of Central Inlcllige'icc to meet his responsibilities for providing
currcut intelligence bearing oil issues of national security to the President,
the National S-ietn'ity Council, and other senior government officials. It
is produced in consultation with the l)el>artmetlis of State and Defense.
\Vlien, because of the time factor, adequate consultation with the depart-
ment of primary concern is not I(asible, items or portions thereof are pro-
duced by CIA and enclosed in brackets.
Interpretations of intelligence information in this publication represent
ililt) uxiiate and preliminary views which are subject to modification in the
light of further information and more complete analysis.
Certain intelligence. items in this publication may be dcsignated specifically
for no further dissemination. Other intelligence items may be disseminated
further, but only on a need-to-know basis.
WARNING
This document contains information affecting the national
defense of the United States, within the meaning of Title
.18, sections 793 and 79-1, of the US Code, as amended.
Its transmission or revelation of its contents to or re-
ceipt by an unauthorized person is prohibited by law.
GROUP 1
Excluded from automatic
downgrading and
declassification
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No. 0013/72
15 January 1972
Central Intelligence bulletin
LAOS: Government counterattack in Long Tieng sector.
(Page 1)
GHANA: Assessment of immediate post-coup period.
Page 3)
IRELAND: Formal diplomatic ties with the USSR likely
within a few months. (Page 4)
DRUG CONTROLS: Proposals to strengthen international
policing of drug traffic. (Page 5)
GREECE: Personnel reshuffling in the Foreign Minis-
try. (Page 6)
FRANCE: Moves to stimulate economy. (Page 7)
TUNISIA: Bourguiba preparing to liberalize govern-
ment. (Pale 8)
COMMUNIST CHINA: Moderate agricultural policy.
(Page 9
EUROPEAN COMPMUNITIES: Preferential trade policy con-
tin es in Me ii er*a~ean area. (Page 11)
25X6
EC-IRELAND: Agreement on sugar quotas (Page 13)
SCANDINAVIA - EAST GERMANY: SAS air routes to Ea'3t
Berlin Page 13
I~DOCHINA: North Vietnamese SAMs in Laos ,Page 15)
RHODESIA: Demonstrations said to be aimed at im-
pres ig Br.tish (Page 15)
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K LAOS: Government forces are preparing to try
to retake Skyline Ridge overlooking Long Tieng.
The outcome may well decide the fate of the base.
Four irregular battalions are being withdrawn
from isolated positions in the Phou Long Mat - Tha
Tam Bleung area and moved to the western end of
the ridge, the only portion presently in government
hands. Together with irregular units already in
Long Tieng, they plan to attack the North Vietnam-
ese units now digging in on the east end of the
ridge.
Much will now depend on the government's abil-
ity to move swiftly and on an improvement in the
weather, which has lately hampered close air support.
If the North Vietnamese have the time to strengthen
their hold on the ridge, the government position in
Long Tieng would quickly become untenable. The
North Vietnamese have already placed heavy machine
guns and a field gun of unknown size on the ridge.
The government is trying to pull some of its
units closer to Long Tieng either to help defend
the base or to screen a southwestward withdrawal.
Units from the Phou Pha Sai area have moved to Pha
Dong and are to begin a sweep operation toward new
positions seven miles southeast of Long Tieng. In
addition, two irregular battalions, with a total
strength of 490 men, arrived in Long Tieng on 13
January and are moving into positions southeast of
the valley. (SECRET)
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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*GHANA: Lieutenant Colonel Acheampong seems
to have little notion of what to do with power now
that he has it.
The move which resulted in the ouster of the
27-month-old Busia regime appears to have involved
little in-depth planning either for the coup itself
or for future programs. Acheampong has filled key
military posts with his supporters, but has not
begun to flesh out the membership of his National
Redemption Council, which is to have representatives
of all important interest groups.
The obscure and uninspirinq middle level of-
ficers named to the NRC executive appear to be
united only by a common disgruntlement over promo-
tions, civilian tampering with military perquisites,
and their belief that some military changes were
made for partisan reasons. All share a woeful lack
of governmental experience. Most of them appear
to be admirers of the US, however.
Aside from announcing that many of the former
regime's unpopular austerity measures either will
be rescinded or reviewed, Acheampong has not formu-
lated any programs. Principal secretaries have been
ordered to run their ministries while the army sorts
out its own apparently still muddled affairs and
casts about for ways to meet some of the grandiose
promises he has made to the public.
According to press reports, tsusia reportedly
is en route from London to Ivory Coast. He issued
a statement urging Ghanaians to "remove: this dis-
grace." (SECRET NO FOREIGN DISSEM)
*Because of the shortage of time for preparation of this item, the analytic
interpretation presented here has been produced by the Central Intelli-
gence Agency without the participation of the Defense Intelligence
Agency, Department of Defense.
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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IRELAND: Dublin and Moscow will probably es-
tablish formal diplomatic ties within the next few
months, despite Irish concern that a Soviet mission
would exploit the crisis in Northern Ireland.
A senior Irish official recently told the US
Embassy that talks on diplomatic representation were
progressing and that he hoped arrangements would be
completed soon. Dublin hopes that better relations
will help increase Irish exports to the USSR and
East European nations. In addition, the government
believes that the probable entry of a neutral Ire-
land into the Common Market should be balanced by
the development of at least limited ties with Warsaw
Pact nations.
One of the more Sensitive details yet to be
agreed on is the size of the Soviet Embassy in Dub-
lin. The Irish plan to establish a two- or three-
man mission in Moscow and would like to limit the
Soviets to a similar number, apparently believing
that a large Soviet staff would meddle in "the trou-
bles" over Ulster. The "official" wing of the Sinn
Fein--the Communist influenced political arm of the
Irish Republican Army--would be the natural vehicle
for the Soviets to use in this connection. Apart
from this possibility, a Soviet mission would con-
duct overt activity aimed at improving the USSR's
image. (CONFIDENTIAL NO FOREIGN DISSEM)
15 Jan 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin 4
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DRUG CONTROLS: Key Western countries have
reached ad re erendum agreement in Geneva on amend-
ment.s that would substantially strengthen the 1961
Single Convention on Narcotic Drugs.
The proposed amendments would strengthen the
International Narcotics Control Board (INCB) by
giving it broader powers to obtain and use infornia-
tion on the production,traffic and consumption of
both licit and illicit dugs. if significant dif-
ficultes arise, the INCB could request consulta-
tions and a visit to the problem area and refer the
matter to UN agencies. In an extreme case, the INCB
could limit opium cultivation and production where
a close relationship with illicit traffic can be es-
tablished. Another proposal would facilitate pro-
cedures for extraditing narcotics offenders.
At this week's meeting, however, it was decided
not to offer the amendment, suggested by the US,
which would give the INCB power to apply a mandatory
embargo on all legal international drug business
with a country it found to be in violation of the
convention. Many Western countries maintained that
this would infringe too much on their national sov-
ereignty.
The package of amendments is expected to be
endorsed by many Western governments by early Feb-
ruary. Meanwhile, consultations with nor.-Western
states will continue in hopes of expanding the con-
sensus before the UN plenipotentiary conference in
March to amend the convention. For approval, the
package will require a two-thirds vote there; thus
broadest possible Western backing will be important.
The recently drafted complementary convention
on manufactured psychotropic substances lacks the
teeth of the suggested Western amendments to the
1961 convention. Some of the less developed coun-
tries may thus allege that they, as chief producers
of the raw materials; are to be policed more closely
than the developed countries in which intricate com-
pounds such as LSD must be manufactured. (CONFI-
DENTIAL NO FOREIGN DISSEM)
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GREECE: The most significant changes in the
government reshuffle yesterday occurred in the For-
eign Ministry.
Christos Palamas has been elevated to the post
of alternate minister of foreign affairs, a cabinet
position. The present ambassador to Cyprus, Kon-
stantinos Panagiotakos, will replace Palamas as
undersecretary of foreign affairs.
These changes in large part reflect Athens'
current interest in the Cyprus problem, and Palamas
is expected to concentrate on Cyprus in the coming
months. Palamas' promotion is probably also de-
signed to place him in a position where he will be
less able to' oppose Prime Minister Papadopoulos'
appointments of military officers to ambassadorial
posts.
I IPapa opou os will announce more changes, pos-
25X1C 1 y next week. Lieuten-
ant General Broumas, currently the aeputy chief
of the armed forces, may become the new ambassador
in Washington. As envoy to the US, Broumas is
likely to push for a continued supply of US mili-
tary equipment to Greece. (SECRET NO FOREIGN D..S-
SEM)
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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FRANCE: The government has moved to stimulate
lagging economic growth and to prevent further in-
creases in unemployment.
Paris announced this week a reduction in the
disco?int rate by a half point to six percent, ac-
celeration of the refund of surplus value - added
tax receipts to businesses, and an increase in the
construction of low-rent housing. Nationalized in-
dustries have been directed to step up implementa-
tion of their 1972 investment programs. This will
inject over $1 billion of government funds to spur
private and public investment and induce higher em-
ployment. These measures are likely to enhance
prospects for strong economic growth in 1972.
Because of international monetary uncertainty,
export growth has slowed in the past several months.
Any further slump in West German demand for French
exports could accentuat,3 the slowdown. Public and
private investment are falling. New domestic orders
have declined substantially, particularly in the
capital-goods industries. As a result unemployment
has risen sharply. Looking ahead to elections that
must be held by the spring of 1973, Finance Minister
Valery Giscard d'Estaing has indicated that the gov-
ernment is prepared to take further steps to promote
strong economic growth. (CONFIDENTIAL)
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SECRET
TUNISIA: President Bourguiba is preparing to
liberaTiz4 'the system of government without openly
acknowledging concessions to his liberal. opponents.
Prime Minister ?-Iedi Nouira has told- the US
Ambassador that the political system will be grad-
ually made more representative by enhancing the
powers of the National Assembly and revising the
structure of the ruling Destourian Socialist Party
(PSD). Not,ira said Bourguiba was preparing to send
to the National Assembly constitutional amendments
making the government responsible to the assembly
as well as to the President. The presidential system
will also he adapted to allow a greater role for
electe. officials other than Bou*:guiba. In addi--
tion, the party is to be reorganized wii:h a view
to increasing the separation between it and govern-
ment and giving local cells more autonomy.
Bourguiba has apparently decided to adopt most
of the policies of the PSD liberal faction. The
liberals, led by former interior minister Ahmed
Mestiri, have been seeking to modify Bourguiba's
highly personalized rule. They won a clear victory
at the PSD Congress last October, but Bourguiba
initially ignored the Congress` recommendations for
reforms and suspended Mestiri from party activities
after he voiced his criticism in foreign press in-
terviews. Mestiri's party membership was referred
to a disciplinary committee which has not yet de-
livered its decision.
N: _r,a, in his talks with the ambassador, was
vague on the key issue of presidential succession.
The PSD liberal faction has advocated election of a
successor if Bourguiba dies, while the president has
so far insisted on maintaining the current procedure
providing for the prime minister's assumption of the
office. Nouira hinted that the proposed ,.?,iendment
might provide for an electior after the prime minis-
ter succeeded for an interim p.riod. (CONFIDENTIAL)
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COMMUNIST CHINA: Peking's forceful reitera-
tion of a moderate agricultural policy is a clear
indica t:ion of the erosion of ultra-leftist influence
in this key area of national decision-making.
Major articles in the most recent issues of
Red Flag, the party theoretical journal, and numer-
ous provincial radiobroadcasts over the past month
have discussed the acceleration of rural develop-
ment In so doing, they heavily scored "leftist
deviations" in rural economic policy and have
argued that progress toward total Communism must
be slowed at this stage. Several articles have
warned against disregarding objective economic con-
ditions and confusing different stages of dev.iop-
ment, apparently reflecting Peking's concern that
many local cadres still are seized with the "leap
forward" approach which often resulted in the un-
economic use of mass labor, overinflated production
statistics, and the denigration of mate:ial incen-
tives.
A recent Inner Mongolian broadcast, for exam-
ple, identified several practices that should be
retained, including considerable decision-making
in smaller rural collective units, the retention
of peasant's private plots, and the allocation of
work points according to actual work performed
rather than on an egalitarian basis. These prac-
tices were heavily criticized by radical forces
during the Cultural Revolution and, in some in-
stances, discarded in a number of revolutionary
Maoist experiments in rural development between
1968 and early 1970. Other recent propaganda has
underscored Peking's heightened sensitivity to
perennial peasant discontent over consumer welfare.
These commentaries have emphasized that individual
and collective rural bank deposits have reached an
all-time high and that prices paid by the state
for agricultural produce have increased while both
grain taxes and fertilizer and insecticide prices
15 Jan 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin 9
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25X1 C
have been reduced. an in-
creasing number of rura tree markets and even
black markets are operating suggest that Peking's
latest pronouncements are more than mere rhetoric.
Since the Cultural Revolution, there have
been fragmentary indications that the merits of
sticking to a middle road in attempting to raise
agricultural productivity have been hotly debated
in regime councils. The confusion engendered at
lower levels by this debate was reflected last fall
when some localities reportedly again put forward
plans for seizing private plots in 1972 and for
removing some decision-making authority from the
production teams, the lowest economic unit in the
countryside. Peking's latest pronouncements may
not mean the debate is fully resolved, but they
clearly demonstrate a willingness to compromise
with some deeply held ideological tenets which had
previously inhibited rational economic development.
(CONFIDENTIAL NO FOREIGN DISSEM)
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EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES: The EC is pursuing its
preferential trade policy in the Mediterranean area
despite strong US pleas for a standstill.
The Community will shortly begin negotiations
with Cyprus to establish a customs union in two
stages over a ten-year period. The principal aim
is to give Cyprus similar treatment on citrus prod-
ucts to that now received by other EC preferential
trade partners in the Mediterranean. The Community's
position is that, in a four-year first stage, it
would cut the duty on Cypriot citrus fruit by 40
percent. The EC also would reduce tariffs by 70
percent on most industrial products from Cyprus,
and Cyprus gradually would cut its duties on EC
products by 35 percent. The second phase of the
agreement would involve the elimination of remain-
ing duties and trade restrictions between the par-
ties and the adoption by Cyprus of the EC's common
external '.:ariff.
In another development, the EC and Spain soon
will review their preferential agreement, which
went into effect in October 1970. The review is
intended to solve problems posed by the impending
enlargement of the Community, and the EC will hold
similar reviews with other preferential trading
partners, including Malta and Israel. Spain may
try to bring up the question of "association" with
the EC, and even eventual membership, but the Com-
munity will resist this effort. (CONFIDENTIAL NO
FOREIGN DISSEM)
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5:14, ~RJ 'i
EC-IRELAND: A compromise on the last remain-
ing issue teen the EC and Ireland has cleared
the way for Irish signature of the EC accession
treaty, probably on 22 January 1972. Dublin now
has accepted an EC compromise figure of an annual
sugar production quota of 150,000 tons. Irish
entry into the EC is now contingent only on the
outcome of a popular referendum scheduled for early
spring. Both major political parties and several
economic interest groups have endorsed entry, but
the outcome of the referendum is not yet predict-
able. (CONFIDENTIAL NO FOREIGN DISSEM)
SCANDINAVIA - EAST GERMANY: The Scandinavian
airline, SAS, is expected to begin regular air serv-
ice to Schoenefeld, the East Berlin airfield, on 1
April. The airline, which recently received per-
mission from Denmark to make flights three times a
week from Copenhagen to Schoenefeld will join the
Dutch airline, KLM, which began "unscheduled serv-
ice" to East Berlin early last year. The Danish
Government apparently has removed its earlier stip-
ulation that SAS must first obtain West Berlin land-
ing rights and East German overflight rights, for
possible flights to West Berlin. These West Euro-
pean airlines long have been trying to establish
regular service into East Germany; the Allied Pow-
ers have not permitted them to fly to West Berlin.
(CONFIDENTIAL)
(continued)
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Napa Fuss
Ban Keral An
Vuona ? Tch?"jnno
f liJ lilily 1 t SA:~
Pilot sighting of SAM site
(14 January)
SECRET
NO FOREIGN DISSEM
CMILITA RIZEU
ZONE
Phomgraphy of SAM site
2January)
-' 1
i'r a SOUTH
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S1' CRE'L'
INDOCI-IINA: The North Vietnamese are establish-
ing surface-to-:iir missile (SAM) positions farther
south in Lac's than ever before. Recent aerial pho-
tography and pilot sightings indic'.te that at least
one and possibly two operational S-IM sites are lo-
cated in the vicinity of Muong Nong. The site has
been at-Zacked, but the results are not yet known.
The establishment of a suirface-to-air missile site
this far south is fuithe.,7 confirmation that the
North Vietnamese intend to chal'.-)nge more aggres-
sively US aircraft attacking the logistics corridor.
In the past, operational SAM sites were located
only as far south as Tchepone. (SECRET NO FOREIGN
DISSEM)
RHODESIA: The Smith government is claiming
that agitators are trying to stir up the African
population to impress the British commission that
arrived earlier this week to test public accept-
ability of the settlement terms. The African Na-
tional Council (ANC), a nationalist group set up
recently to organize opposition to the settlement,
has been accused of inciting at least one of five
recent disturbances that have led to clashes with
police. The government has not provided any proof
of ANC involvement, but it may be strongly tempted
to use similar incidents as an excuse to ban the
ANC, which appears to have won some support among
urban Africans. The Smith regime, however, will
probably move very carefully to avoid casting any
doubt on its willingness to allow Africans to be
heard by the commission. (CONFIDENTIAL NO FOREIGN
DISSEM)
Central Intelligence Bulletin
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