CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

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Collection: 
Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): 
CIA-RDP85T00875R000800020002-6
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RIPPUB
Original Classification: 
S
Document Page Count: 
14
Document Creation Date: 
December 19, 2016
Document Release Date: 
January 15, 2002
Sequence Number: 
2
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Publication Date: 
January 4, 1972
Content Type: 
BULL
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kppiobe'd For Release 2005/06109 : Clk R~P85T00875R0 0$00020002 6 1'.. Vtj ?.. ~.:~ 1.t .....1.:.f,. ~:1 Approved For Release 2005/06/09: CIA-RDP85T00875R000800019i No Foreign Dissent DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE Central Intelligence B"hulletin State Dept. declassification & release instructions on file Secret N 569 4 Janh.iary 1972 Approved For Release 2005/06/09 : CIA-RDP85T00875R000800020002-6 Approved For Release 2005/06/09 : CIA-RDP85T00875R000800020002-6 Beget '11ht' CENTRAL !NTELLICis'NCE BULLETIN is produced by the Director of Central lntelligcnce to meet his responsibilities for providing current intelligence bearing oil issues of national security to the President, the National Security Council, and other senior government officials. It is produced in consultation with the Departments of State and Defense. When, because of the time. factor, adequate consultation with the depart- ment of prim_try concern is not feasible, items or portions thereof arc pro- duced by CIA and enclosed in brackets. Interpretations of intelligence information in this publication represent immediate and prci.minary views which are subject to modification in the right of further information and more complete analysis. Certain Mtelligencc ik:r is in this publication may be designated specifically for no further dissemination. Other intelligence items may be disseminated further, but only on a need-to-know basis. WARNING This document contains information affecting the national defense of the United States, within the meaning of Title 18, sections 793 and 79.1, of the US Code, as amended. Its transmission Cr revelation of its contents to or re- ceipt by an unauthorized person is prohibited by law. GROUP 1 Excluded from automatic downgrading and declassification MOR Approved For Release 2005/06 #685T00875R000800020002-6 Approved For Release 2005/06/ i e 1P85T00875R000800020002-6 No. 0003/72 4 January 1972 Central Inteilz~ence bulletin COMMTJNIST CHINA: Assessment of New Year's Day pro- nouncement.(Page 1) PAKISTAN: Bhutto rapidly implements new economic program. (Page 3) BANGLADESH: Economic restructuring under way. (Page 4) COMMUNIST CHINA: Impressive industrial growth registered in 1971. (Page 5) PARAGUAY: Doubts about government's willingness to curtail drug trafficking. (Page 6) PAKISTAN-BANGLADESH: Mujib's release (Page 7) OMAN: Government reshuffle (Page 7) SOUTH VIETNAM: New road under construction in DMZ -Tp age 9 Approved For Release 2005/06/9 ~j - 85T00875R000800020002-6 Approved For Release 2005/06/09 : CIA-RDP85T00875R000800020002-6 SLCRIi T COMMUNIST CHINA: Peking's low-key New Year's Day pronouncement touted China's diplomatic and economic progress but was uninformative on any po- litical reorganization in the wake of the purge, of Defense Minister Lin Piao and other top military leaders. The joint People's Daily - Red Flag - Libera- tion Army Journal editorial on 31 December avoided a public airing of the recent leadership upheaval and forecast no sweeping purge in the ranks of the army or party. The editorial's heavy emphasis on promoting unity and educating'those who have com- mitted mistakes seems designed to project an image of leadership stability and to affirm that no major alteration in the regional and provincial power structure is in the offing. Indeed, the remarkable absence of repercussions at the local level in the months since Lin's fall suggests that specific re- assurah'.es regarding their political tenure already have been offered the majority of civilian and mil- itary power-holders in the provinces. On the other hand, the editorial's failure to hail the complete reconstruction of party c.mmit- tees at the provincial level over the past year and its warning that much work remains to be done seem to indicate that local party organs will at least be selectively revamped. This impression has been reinforced in recent weeks that some provincial, municipal, and county party committees will be disbanded and 25X1 C new "elections" held--a move which, 25X10 may await the conclusion o President INIxon's or hcoming visit to Peking. Eventual alterations in the local power struc- ture almost certainly will dilute the influence of some military power-holders and remaining civilian ultraleftists; sortie indication of this already has been provided in the increasing number of radio Central Intelligence Bulletin Approved For Release 2005/06/9 ~IA 85T00875R000800020002-6 Approved For Release 2005/06/09 CIA-RDP85T00875R000800020002-6 SECRET broadcasts decrying attempts from the "left" to un- dermine party control of the military. The politi- cal status of the military establishment as a whole, however, is still in question, and the sensitivity of this issue was underscored by the New Year edi- torial's stress on the importance of conventional military activities as opposed to the army's polit- ical chores. The trumpeting of China's success in the in- ternational and domestic economic arenas highlights the absence of a discernible impact on the nation's decision-making process by the recent high-level purges. The situation in the leadership hierarchy is still fluid, however, and the editorial provided no clues as to the eventual political settlement to be hammered out in Peking. Approximately nine ci- vilian and military politburo members are appearing regularly in public but the current hierarchy clearly constitutes a rump body and the process of filling existing vacancies on the 25-member politburo al- most certainly has generated considerable behind- the-scenes maneuvering. The editorial's praise of China's diplomatic successes appears to offer indirect testimony to Chou En-lai's influence. Reflecting predictable Chinese pleasure over Peking's enhanced interna- tional position during the past year, the editorial devoted considerable attention to such conventional diplomatic achievements as Peking's entry into the UN and its new diplomatic ties abroad. The US was treated in markedly low-keyed fashion. By contrast the Soviet leadership came in for some polemical hard knocks, including a personal criticism of party chief Brezhnev. Contrary to last year when Japan was treated as a major Chinese adversary, this year's pronouncement omitted almost all anti-Tokyo commentary. The Taiwan issue was treated in unusual detail, reflecting Peking's immediate and ser.U.)us concern over the island's future status. (CONFI- DENTIAL NO FOREIGN DISSEM) 4 Jan 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin Approved For Release 2005/06/ &1t85T00875R000800020002-6 Approved For Release 2005/06/0g1_,,, F85T00875R000800020002-6 PAKISTAN: President Bhutto is moving ahead rapidly with changes in economic policy. Islamabad has announced that it has taken over management of 20 firms in such industries as gas, iron and steel, engineering goods, chemicals, rayon, cars and tractors. The government stressed, how- ever, that it had not acquired any financial inter- est in the firms; thus, the action so far falls short of complete nationalization. Although the take-over encompassed an important part of indus- try, the cotton textile sector--the nation's lead- ing industrial employer and forei.gn exchange earner-- remain: untouched. President Bhutto, aware that his actions en- danger prospects for new foreign investment and aid for Pakistan, has attempted to assure the foreign community of his moderation. He emphasized that foreign investment contracts and credits would not be affected by the new arrangements and that gov- ernment controls would not be extended to other man- ufacturing industries. The government contemplates further economic changes. Land and tax reform, and government con- trol of banking and insurance are under serious consideration. In a move to conserve the country's financial resources and to strengthen government control, the heads of two rich industrial families were put under house arrest for six months and pass- ports of members of the country's so-called 22 richest families remain impounded. Those families which supported Bhutto's political opponents seem most affected by government actions thus far. (CONFIDENTIAL) 4 Jan 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin Approved For Release 2005/0JJRIRLPDP85T00875R000800020002-6 Approved For Release 2005/06/"PEIP1it"85T00875R000800020002-6 BANGLADESH: Dacca is restructuring its econ- omy as it attempts to restore some semblance of order, but a return to pre-war economic conditions will require substantial inflows of foreign aid. The government has taken control of 274 firms, in addition to the jute and tea industries that were taken over last week. Ceilings have been set for private salaries. A food corporation has been formed to procure and distribute rice, and efforts are being made to get fertilizer and machinery into those areas where the rice crop currently is being planted. Some money and food have been allocated for the returning refugees. Trade pacts with the USSR, Bulgaria, and Czechoslovakia reportedly will soon be signed. The Bangladesh rupee has been set at less than 14 cents compared with 21 cents previously main- tained for Pakistan's currency. This devaluation, however, will not necessarily mean a rapid improve- ment in the new country's foreign trade. Under the previous exchange rate structure, exporters received a favorable rate of exchange--up to 35 percent higher for their sales. Moreover, mos` sectors of the economy, including shipping and industry, must first be set in order. Furthermore, Dacca's major exports, raw jute and jute manufactures, are suf- fering from a declining world demand as consumers switch to synthetic fibers. The new regime also must renegotiate jute sales contracts which it had canceled. (CONFIDENTIAL) Central Intelligence Bidletin Approved For Release 2005/06/EP85T00875R000800020002-6 Approved For Release 2005/06/095ff5T00875R000800020002-6 COMMUNIST CHINA: Peking achieved impressive industrial growth in 1971 without sacrificing living standards. Output of basic metals, fuel, power, industrial equipment, and military end products reached record levels. Recently announced Chinese claims for economic output in 1971--the most complete set of economic statistics released since 1959--appear inflated. Industrial production nonetheless probably grew by some ten percent over the 1970 level. This was slower than the estimated 17-percent growth achieved in 1970, but growth that year was atypical because the Chinese easily put back into use much plant capacity previously idle. In 1971, the Chinese re- lied more on new facilities. Agricultural performance probably disappointed the regime. Weather conditions during most of 1971 largely nullified the benefits derived from increased supplies of farm equipment and chemical fertilizers. Total grain output may not have exceeded the 1970 level of 215-220 million tons. China has food re- serves, however, and also can afford to buy more grain than the three million tons already purchased for 1972 delivery. (SECRET) 4 Jan 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin Approved For Release 2005/06/095 f,I R85T00875R000800020002-6 Approved For Release 2005/06/09: 9?P,_T00875R000800020002-6 PARAGUAY: The court decision not to extradite to the US an accused narcotics smuggler poses ques- tions about Paraguay's willingness to cooperate in stopping the drug traffic. The US Embassy was informed on 31 December that a Paraguayan court had refused to extradite August Ricord, an important figure in the international drug smuggling network. The court based its opinion on the fact that drug trafficking is not an extra- ditable offense under the present US-Paraguayan treaty. The government intends to appeal the case and meanwhile will request a cash bail of almost $250,000. Even so, Ricord probably will post bond and it is possible that he will leave the country. Paraguayan officials had assured the US that the court, which can easily be influenced by Pres- ident Stroessner, would approve extradition even if the treaty did not appear to apply. The court's decision, however, would seem to indicate that Stroessner remains reluctant to confront the strong Paraguayan interests involved in drug traffic. (CONFIDENTIAL) 4 Jan 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin Approved For Release 2005/06/09 $1C4$T5T00875R000800020002-6 Approved For Release 2005/06/09 : SQ1QQPITT00875R000800020002-6 PAKISTAN-BANGLADESH: By freeing Mujibur Rahman ur.:on iitiona ly, President Bhutto apparently intended both to satisfy international opinion and to improve prospects for the repatriation of the Pakistani troops and civilians held by the Indians. Bhutto presumably was given little reason from his talks with Mujib to believe he could extract meaningful concessions fror, the Bengali leader and may have concluded that his unconditional release was the only way to limit Indian influence in the former province. (CONFIDENTIAL) OMAN: Sultan Qabus announced the resignation of Price Minister Tariq and an extensive reshuffling of government posltaons on 1 January. The Sultan and the prime minister had been engaged in a quiet power struggle since mid-1970 when they took office following a coup which ousted the Sultan's father. Asim al-Jamali, minister of health, has been named acting prime minister. The Sultan apparently in- tends to keep power, centralized in the palace. (CONFIDENTIAL) (continued) 4 Jan 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin Approved For Release 2005/06/09 SPCRILMT00875R000800020002-6 Approved For Release 2005/06/O 1044MR85TOO875R000800020002-6 New Communist Road Construction c f QyANG, TRI iii Qu TO Now road Omit, 11,E AKha Saab' ,,- `. ti Approved For Release 2005/06/09 : CIA-RDP85T00875R000800020002-6 SECRET Approved For Release 2005/06/095 FM-&Q 5T00875R000800020002-6 SOUTH VIETNAM: A recent pilot report indicates that the Communists are constructing a new road within the DMZ branching off Route 102 toward the central region of northern Quang Tri Province. Sen- sors and pilot reports also indicate that work has begun to repair the rain and bomb damage on a ^om- munist road begun last May that runs through the western end of the DMZ and into Quang Tri Province. Both roads will facilitate the movement of supplies to Cuinmunist forces in this region of South Vietnam. (SECRET NO FOREIGN DISSEM) 4 Jan 72 Central Intelligence Bulietin Approved For Release 2005/06/ Ei LCI-qP85T00875R000800020002-6 Approved For Release 2005/0E~q cl4,-F~pP85T00875R000800020002-6 NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE The United States Intelligence Board on 30 December 1971 approved the following national. in- telligence estimate: NIE 80/90-1-71: "Nationalism and Change in Latin America" (SE- CRET) 4 Jan 72 Central Intelligence Bulletin 10 Approved For Release 2005/R RCPPrRDP85T00875R000800020002-6