CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE BULLETIN

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00875R000800010023-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 15
• Document Creation Date: December 19, 2016
• Document Release Date: December 3, 2001
• Sequence Number: 23
• Publication Date: September 20, 1971
• Content Type: BULL

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DIRECTORATE OF
INTELLIGENCE
Central Intellz~ence Bulletin
tate Dept. declassification & release instructions on file
Secret
N2 605
Approved For Release 2005/06/09 : CIA-RDP85T00875R0008006iOd$3P*ember 1971
 Approved For Release 2005/06/bQ9-CJDP85T00875R000800010023-4
The (;I;N'I'l1A1, IN'I'NLLI(:!?N(;E I3IILLI?'17N is produced by the
Director of Central Iutelligcnce to fleet his responsibilities for providing
(1i1i(nt intclli}.c'ncc+ bearing oil issues of uutional !:ccurity to the President,
the National Security Council, and tither rcfior government officials. It
is produced ill consultation with the Dclru'tments of Slate and l)efcuse.
When, because of the time factor, adequate considtation with the dclru?t-
iucnt of primary concern is not feasible, items or p lrtions thereof, tare pro-
ducal by CIA and enclosed in brackets.
Interpretations of intellig('1wc iriforf)atiou it, this Publication represent
immediate and preliinir.,u?y views which are subject to 111oklificatioll ill ill(!
light of further information and more complete' analysis.
Curtain intelligence items in this publication fury be designated sl-ccifl, ally
for no further dissemination. Other intelligence items may he disseininatrd
further, but only on a feed-to-know basis.
WARNING
't'his docullwilt .?'nitains illformatimt affecting the national
defei."e nl, `',1w sited States, within the meaning of Title
1.8, sections 793 and 79.1, of the US Code, as amended.
Its trai,:cmissiou or revelation of its contents to or re-
ceipt by an nnauthori?!.ed person is prohibited by law.
GROUP 1
Excluded from automatic
downprading and
declassification
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No. 022/71
20 September 1971
central Intelligence Bulletin
25X6
UN - MIDDLE EAST: The Securit.- Council is expected
to reconvene early this week to consider Israeli ac-
tions in Jerusalem. (Page 2)
EGYPT: The new cabinet should not bring about rad-
ical policy change. (Page 4)
SOUTH VIETNAM: Agitation is growing, but the gov-
ernment seems capable of controlling demonstrations.
(Page 5)
INDONESIA-CHINA: _`.:donesia is searching for a way
to establish direct communications with Peking.
(Page 7)
EAST PAKISTAN: The Bengali rebels have decided not
to disrupt the UN food distribution program. (Page 8)
INDIA: Prime Minister Gandhi's dominance over her
Ruling Congress Party is growing. (Page 9)
CAMBODIA: Fuel tanks attacked (Page 10)
BRAZIL: Death of guerrilla leader (Page 10)
ARGENTINA: Elections scheduled (Page 11)
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SECRE':I'
UN - MIDDLE EAST: The Security Council is ex-
pected to reconvene early this week to consider Is-
raeli actions in Jerusalem, but intra-Arab agreement
on a draft resolution is not yet in sight.
After the second day of council debate, on Fri-
day, the US Mission learned that the Arab group is
reviewing two markedly differing texts. A Syrian
draft would send a special. Council mission to Jeru-
salem with instructions to report back within 15 days.
It also cites the possible need to apply UN sanctions
against Israel. The Soviets appear to be backing
this approach, because in the past they have prefer-
red that any mission be under the Council rather than
the secretariat.
The Jordanians have discarded the text worked
out with the US and have drafted a new one with
Egypt and Yemen (Sana). This draft does not refer
to UN sanctions and calls upon the Secretary General
to report within 30 days on the situation in Jeru-
salem. It could well provoke a Western veto, but the
Jordanians maintain it represents the "irreducible
minimum" that could obtain Arab support. A critical
problem for the Jordanians is the need to have a mem-
ber of the Council introduce the resolution they have
in mind. The only Arab state presently on the Coun-
cil is Syria.
There has been no clarification of Egyptia:i
President Sadat's statement on Thursday that he wanted
the Council to meet at she foreign minister level to
consider the entire Middle East imbroglio. Presum-
ably he is willing to wait for at least a few more
weeks before moving fully in that direction. The
Arabs are planning a full-scale Middle East debate
in the General Assembly commencing in mid-November.
This strategy is based on the parliamentary situation
in the Assembly--priority will probably be given the
Chinese representation issue--and a willingness to
hold off until the Organization of African Unity
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(OAU) peace mission to Middle East capitals, sched-
uled for early November, has been completed. Last
year wide Afzican support aided the Arabs in rolling
up a 57-16 majority in the Assembly for a contentious
resolution strongly opposed by the US and Israel.
The Israelis hope to convince the OAU mission to
support a more balanced text this fall. (SECRET NO
FOREIGN DISSEM)
20 Sep 71 Central Intelligence Bulletin
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I EGYPT: The new cabinet appointed yesterday
portends no radical shift in the formulation of for-
eign or domestic policy.
The retention of Prime Minister Fawzi, the min-
isters of foreign affairs, war, and interior, and
other cabinet members in politically sensitive posts
emphasizes continuity with the government that was
dissolved on 11 September. A number of ministries
were abolished and two new ones created, in keeping
with the government reorganization pledged by Presi-
dent Sadat in his address to the nation last Thurs-
day.
One appointment which has attracted the atten-
tion of political observers in Cairo is that of
Muhammad Ghalib, who has served during the last t^
years as ambassador to Moscow, as minister of stc.te
for foreign affairs. The authoritative Al-Ahram
newspaper reported yesterday that Ghalib would have
"special responsibility" in his ministerial post
tor overseeing Soviet-Egyptian relations. (CONFIDEN-
TIAL) 3
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SECRET
25X1 C
SOUTH VIETNAM: Agitation continues to grow,
but the government still seems capable of controlling
protest demonstrations.
The antigovernment demonstrations in Saigon over
thq weekend were the most violent in more than a year.
They were conducted principally by small gro':ps of
radical students and were broken up by forceful po-
lice action.
The protests followed several weeks of scattered
student disorders both in Saigon and in Hue. Presi-
dent Thieu's election policy has >>een the target of
most of the agitation, but the students also are
raising traditional grievances against the govern-
ment, such as summer military training. Although
most of the groups involved in the agitation remain
small and divided, their leaders probably hope that
by continuing their protest campaign they can per-
suade the government to accede to some of their de-
mands. They also hope to improve ti,eir own positions
within the student community.
Vice Pres-
ident y is encouraging the demonstrations. Ky met
last week with radical, student leaders, who report-
edly agreed with his advice that the recent fire-
bombing attacks directed against Americans were coun-
terproductive and that future protests should be di-
rected solely against Thieu. Ky's staff is optimis-
tic that veterans and other opposition political and
religious groups can be persuaded to join the stu-
dents in larger protest demonstrations beginning
later this week. The vice president's aides hope
the demonstrations will influence public and inter-
national opinion against Thieu and induce the mili-
tary to take some action against the President. Ky
has close ties with some veterans' groups, and he
apparently has gained in stature among the students,
but he still faces major obstacles in attempting to
unite diverse opposition groups behind his leadership.
(continued)
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SECRET
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SECRET
The government appears to be well aware of the
planned protest activities, and it probably hopes
that strong police measures can break up and dis-
courage demonstrations as effectively as they did
during student protests last year. Nevertheless,
heavy-handed tactics could create additional sympa-
thy for the demonstrators. In addition, strong-arm
measures such as those used over the weekend to break
up a rally of opposition legislators--a more influ-
ential group than the students--could backfire
against the government. (SECRET NO FOREIGN DISSEM)
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SECRET
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INDONESIA-CHINA: Indonesia continues to search
for a way to establish direct communications with
Peking.
Earlier this year, Indonesia instituted indi-
rect probes of Peking's attitude through Yugoslavia
and Romania, and it has made other indirect ap-
proaches on its own.
25X1 C
Djakarta, which suspended relations with China
in 1967, has been divided on the wisdom of resuming
ties. The Foreign Department has favored resumption
but the army, which is the dominant force in the
government, has been opposed. This year, however,
President Suharto and ? highly influential group of
generals have moved toward a foreign policy that
would balance Western financial assistance by an
improvement in relations with Communist countries,
including China. President Nixon's announcement
in July of his intended visit to Peking presumably
has had the effect of further underscoring the need
for a policy shift.
So far the government favors increased direct
trade as the best way to begin normalization. The
full resumption of relations probably will be a
slow process. (SECRET NO FOREIGN DISSENT)
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EAST PAKISTAN: The Bengali rebels reportedly
have d iced ice ded not to disrupt the UN food distribu-
tion program in East Pakistan.
At meetings in Calcuttit earlier this month,
guerrilla leaders concluded t1;,at the liberation
movement had more to lose 'Char. to gain by sabc,,w:aging
UN relief efforts during coming months when food is
expected to become increasingly scarce in parts of
East Pakistan. Their decision, apparently has the
backing of the Bangla Desh exile government. Bangla
Desh Prime Minister Ahmed recently stated that "neu-
tral" relief workers would not be attacked, but
added that some sort of guarantees must be given
that relief supplies and vehicles would not be di-
verted to the Pakistani Army.
initially, some guerrilla. commanders favored
interference because of their suspicion that arms
and other military materiel might be transported
to and within East Pakistan in' UN vessels. A con-
sensus emerged, however, that it was unlikely that
the UN would surreptitiously aid the army. Addi-
tionally, it was agreed that by denying food to
starving DengaJ_is ; the guerrillas could lose the
sympathy and support of the Bengali populace. The
leaders concluded that if the UN appears to adopt
a policy favoring a united Pakistan, the separatists
could reverse their decision and sabotage UN relief
efforts.
If the guerrilla threat can be reduced, it
should assist the UN program, which has been slow
in gaining momentum in East Pakistan because of
fear for the safety for UN personnel stationed there
since late August, as well as technical and bureau-
cratic problems. (SECRET NO FOREIGN DISSEM)
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SECRT','1.'
INDIA: Prime Minister Gandhi's dominance over
her Rul ng Congress Party is becoming even more ap-
parent.
On 11 September she forced a resignation agree-
ment from Brahmananda Reddi, chief minister of the
southern state of Andhra Pradesh and a man whose
domination of Andhra politics had marked him as one
of the most powerful figures in the Ruling Congress
Party. With his resignation and the earlier maneu-
vered resignation of Mohan Lal Sukhadia, the long-
time chief minister of the northern state of Raja-
sthan, Mrs. Gandhi has struck decisive blows against
old-guard party leaders with personal bases of oower.
Few of the party "barons" responsible for placing
her in office in 1966 remain in power positions to-
day, and Mrs. Gandhi appears to have the strength
to continue with a successful campaign to downgrade
those who do.
The recent resignations will give her a free
hand to ensure that candi,_ates of her own choosing,
and therefore beholden to her, are nomimated by state
party organizations to represent the Ruling Congress
in state electoral contests scheduled to take place
by March 1972. Moreover, with the success of her
recent maneuvers, ,he may have gained the necessary
strength to effect a smooth reorganization of her
cabinet. The New Delhi rumor mill is already dis-
cussing the possibility of imminent cabinet changes.
Such long-awaited changes could displace other in-
dependent-minded party barons, upgrade the "progres-
sive" image of her government, and make it still
more responsive to her dictates. (CONFIDENTIAL)
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SECRET
(A CAMBODIA: An attack by Communist sappers early
to.a:zy on the Esso and Shell companies' fuel storage
facilities on the northern outskirts of Phnom Penh
apparently caused extensive damage. This raid marked
the most significant enemy action in the capital area
since the strike last January on the city's airfield.
The storage tanks attacked are the only sizable pe-
troleum facilities in central Cambodia. Although
their destruction would cause a serious disruption
to civilian consumers in the Phnom Penh area, mili-
tary operations are not expected to be affected.
(CONFIDENTIAL)
BRAZIL: Government forces, killed renegade army
captain Carlos Lamarca on 17 September after track-
ing him through the interior of the state of Bahia
for several weeks. The death of Lamarca, the most
prominent and experienced B,:azilian guerrilla leader,
is a severe blow to the nat!on's revolutionary forces.
Lamarca had broken with the urban terrorist movement
last March following several setbacks and apparently
was trying to establish a rural guerrilla force at
the time of his death. His death is likely to have
a demoralizing affect on the advocates of both urban
and rural guerrilla warfare, although initially a
desire for vengeance could result in an upsurge of
urban operations. (SECRET NO FOREIGN DISSEM)
(continued)
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ARGENTINA: President Lanusse's announcement
that national elections will be held on 25 March
1973 comes amid a notable increase in rumors of mil-
itary dissension. There are also stirrings of labor
discontent, and a "passive" general strike has been
called for 29 September to protest the government's
economic policies. Lanusse's election announcement
was made nearly a month earlier than originally
planned, probably in the hope of sidetracking his
critics and gaining more time to devise measures to
slow the high rate of inflation and to stimulate the
sagging economy. The President reportedly is also
in the process of moving his most loyal military
supporters into key troop commands to frustrate any
coup plotting. (SECRET)
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