(UNTITLED)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00875R000600050064-7
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 39
• Document Creation Date: December 15, 2016
• Document Release Date: February 12, 2001
• Sequence Number: 64
• Publication Date: November 7, 1973
• Content Type: CABLE

'VE M
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WESTERN HEMISPHERE BRIEF. 06$.
ITEMS MARKED & HAVE BEEN COORDINATED WITH THE DEPARTMENTS OF
STATE AND DEFENSE.
1.//CHILE: CHILEAN TROOPS HAVE SURROUNDED THE FORMER CUBAN
EMBASSY IN SANTIAGO. SWEDISH AMBASSADOR EDELSTAM AND HIS WIFE ARE
INSIDE THE BUILDING, AND APPARENTLY ARE NOT BEING ALLOWED TO LEAVE.
SWEDEN HAS BEEN HANDLING CUBAN AFFAIRS IN CHILE AND THE AMBASSADOR
HAS BEEN ACTIVE IN ARRANGING POLITICAL ASYLUMS.
THE JUNTA GOVERNMENT REPORTEDLY HAS BEEN CONSIDERING MAKING
A COVERT INSPECTION OF THE PREMISES IN ORDER TO CONFIRM SUSPICIONS
THAT THE CUBANS CONVERTED THE EMBASSY INTO A FORTIFIED PARA-MILITARY
BASE. THE REGIME MAY HAVE DECIDED TO SEIZE THE EMBASSY INSTEAD,
BUT A MORE LIKELY EXPLANATION FOR THE CHILEAN ACTION INVOLVES THE
15 FUGITIVES IN THE BUILDING, SOME OF WHOM APPARENTLY ARE URUGUAYANS
ALLEGEDLY RELEASED FROM THE NATIONAL STADIUM WITHOUT PROPER
AUTHORIZATION. THE GOVERNMENT MAY ALSO SUSPECT THAT SOCIALIST PARTY
LEADER, CARLOS ALTAMIRANO, WHO HEADS THE MOST-WANTED LIST, IS HOLED
UP IN THE BUILDING. THE REGIME'S DESIRE TO GET ITS HANDS ON
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ALTAMIRANO PROBABLY IS GREAT ENOUGH TO OUTWEIGH CONCERN ABOUT THE
INTERNATIONAL REPERCUSSIONS OF ITS DISREGARDING DIPLOMATIC NORMS.
{SECRET NO FOREIGN DISSEM}//
2. //ARGENTINA: A PRESIDENTIAL PRESS SPOK''SMAN HAS STATED THAT
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY PERON WILL VISIT THE UN WITHIN THE NEXT SIX
WEEKS. THE PROJECTED TRIP, OSTENSIBLY BILLED BY THE ARGENTINE MEDIA
AS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR PERON TO EXPOUND HIS VIEWS ON INTERNATIONAL
AFFAIRS, IS AIMED PRIMARILY AT PROBING FOR A PERSONAL MEETING WITH
PRESIDENT NIXON. FOREIGN MINISTER VIGNES IS STRONGLY ADVOCATING
THIS IDEA AS A FOLLOWUP TO HIS TALKS AT THE UN LAST MONTH WITH
SECRETARY KISSINGER. THAT MEETING WAS VIEWED BY THE ARGENTINES
AS AUSPICIOUS FOR REDUCING STRAINS BETWEEN THE TWO COUNTRIES.
THE RECENT APPOINTMENT OF A NEW ARGENTINE AMBASSADOR WITH
GOOD CREDENTIALS IN WASHINGTON MAY BE AN INDICATION THAT PERON IS
MAKING AN OVERTURE FOR IMPROVED RELATIONS. ALTHOUGH PERON MAY
GENUINELY DESIRE A DIALOGUE WITH WASHINGTON, HE IS A CLEVER
POLITICIAN WHO WOULD NOT OVERLOOK THE BROADER CONNOTATIONS SUCH
A MEETING WOULD PROVIDE FOR HIS COVETED AMBITION TO BE RECOGNIZED
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AS AN ELDER STATESMAN AND HEMISPHERE LEADER. ARGENTINES HAVE
STRONG SENSIBILITIES ABOUT THEIR LEADERSHIP ROLE IN LATIN AMERICA,
AND PERON'S STRATEGY OBVIOUSLY IS AIMED AT GIVING HIS NATION'S
COLLECTIVE EGO A BADLY NEEDED BOOST. THE PERONIST GOVERNMENT IS
ATTEMPTING TO EXTRACT ITSELF FROM A QUAGMIRE OF DOMESTIC ECONOMIC
AND POLITICAL PROBLEMS.
WHILE BUENOS AIRES HAS GONE TO GREAT PAINS TO POINT OUT THAT
THERE ARE NO OUTSTANDING DIFFERENCES WITH THE US, THERE ARE SEVERAL
BILATERAL ISSUES THAT ARE POTENTIALLY TROUBLESOME, SUCH AS PENDING
FOREIGN INVESTMENT LAWS AND PRESSURE ON US SUBSIDIARIES IN
ARGENTINA TO SELL TO CUBA. IT IS UNLIKELY, HOWEVER-; THAT THESE
QUESTIONS ARE VIEWED BY PERON AS MAJOR OBSTACLES TO A HIGH LEVEL
MEETING. WHAT PERON HOPES TO ACCOMPLISH 9EYOND THE OBVIOUS
ATTENTION THAT WOULD FOCUS ON SUCH A TRIP IS UNCLEAR, BUT EXPECTA-
TIONS FOR A MEETING WITH PRESIDENT NIXON ARE RUNNING HIGH.
{SECRET NO FOREIGN DISSEM}//
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3. VENEZUELA: WITH GENERAL ELECTIONS ONLY WEEKS AWAY, THE
GOVERNING SOCIAL CHRISTIAN' PARTY IS SHOWING INCREASING SENSITIVITY
TO REPORTS OF COUP PLOTTING.
THE LATEST GOVERNMENT TARGET IS THE RIGHTIST PEREZJIMENISTA
MOVEMENT, SEVERAL OF WHOSE LEADERS WERE SUDDENLY ARRESTED THIS WEEK
ON GROUNDS THAT THEY SHOWED DISRESPECT TO THE PRESIDENT AND WERE
ATTEMPTING TO DISRUPT THE ELECTIONS. THE PJ LEADERS HAD SIGNED AN
OPEN LETTER TO PRESIDENT CALDERA DEMANDING HIS RESIGNATION AND THE
ESTABLISHMENT OF A NEW GOVERNMENT TO GUARANTEE FRAUD-FREE ELECTIONS.
THE GOVERNMENT INVESTIGATORY SERVICES APPARENTLY ARE ATTEMPTING TO
FIND SOME LINK BETWEEN THE PJ GROUP AND A NUMBER OF RETIRED MILITARY
OFFICERS WHO HAVE BEEN ARRESTED AND ARE NOW BEING INVESTIGATED FOR
COUP PLOTTING.
THERE IS NO EVIDENCE, HOWEVER, INDICATING THAT 'THERE IS ANY
SUBSTANCE TO REPORTS OF COUP PLO'PTING. SUCH RUMORS ARE A NORMAL
FIXTURE IN VENEZUELAN ELECTION CAMPAIGNS AND THIS ONE IS NO
EXCEPTION. WHAT IS UNUSUAL, HOWEVER, IS THE H::AVY HANDED REACTION
OF THE GOVERNMENT TO THE REPORTSi A REACTION WHICH APPEARS TO BE
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NOT ONLY UNNECESSARY BUT ALSO POLITICALLY UNWISE. {SECRET}
&4. ARAB STATES-ISRAEL: CEASE-FIRE VIOLATIONS WERE REPORTED
FROM BOTH FRONTS ON 6 NOVEMBER.
DAMASCUS CHARGED THAT ISRAELI ARICRAFT ATTACKED SYRIAN POSITIONS
YESTERDAY MORNING IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTORS OF THE FRONT,
USING WHAT THE SYRIANS DESCRIBED AS SHRIKE MISSILES; THE SHRIKE IS
A US MISSILE USED TO DESTROY RADARS. THE SYRIANS CLAIM TO HAVE
REPELLED THE ATTACKS, WHILE AN ISRAELI SPOKESMAN CONTENDED HE HAD
"NO INFORMATION" ON THEM. THE ATTACKS CANNOT BE CONFIRMED. THE
SYRIAN FRONT HAS BEEN RELATIVELY QUIET SINCE THE CEASEFIRE, AND
THIS ATTACK IS THE FIRST MAJOR VIOLATION THUS FAR REPORTED.
ON THE EGYPTIAN FRONT, AN ISRAELI MILITARY SPOKESMAN REPORTED
ONE MINOR INCIDENT IN THE SECOND ARMY SECTOR YESTERDAY AND TWO
OTHERS IN THE THIRD ARMY AREA. ACCORDING TO THE ISRAELIS, THE
EGYPTIANS INITIATED ALL THREE INCIDENTS BUT BROKE CONTACT WHEN
THE ISRAELIS OPENED FIRE. NO CASUALTIES WERE REPORTED. THE
ISRAELIS HAVE AGREED TO PERMIT AN ADDITIONAL 50 TRUCKS WITH NON-
MILITARY SUPPLIES TO PASS THROUGH THEIR LINES TO THE ENCIRCLED
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EGYPTIAN THIRD ARMY.
ISRAEL ANNOUNCED ON 6'NOVEMBER THAT 1,854 ISRAELI SOLDIERS
HAD BEEN KILLED DURING THE WAR, AND THAT AN ALMOST EQUAL NUMBER OF
WOUNDED WERE STILL HOSPITALIZED. THE ISRAELIS PREVIOUSLY HAD NOT
DISCLOSED DISCLOSED CASUALTY TOTALS, EXCEPT FOR AN ANNOUNCEMENT
ON 15 OCTOBER THAT 656 SOLDIERS HAD BEEN KILLED IN THE FIRST EIGHT
DAYS OF FIGHTING. WHILE THE PUBLIC HAS SUSPECTED HEAVY CASUALTIES,
THESE FIGURES--THREE TIMES THE TOTAL DURING THE 1967 WAR--WILL BE
A SHCOK IN CASUALTY-SENSITIVE ISRAEL. THE FIGURES COULD HAVE A
SOBERING EFFECT ON THOSE FAVORING A RENEWAL OF THE WAR, AND PRIME
MINISTER MEIR MAY BE TRYING TO PREPARE THE PUBLIC FOR SOME ISTAELI
CONCESSIONS.
AT THE UN, THERE IS GROWING PRESSURE FOR A FORMAL MEETING OF
THE SECURITY COUNCIL--POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS 7 NOVEMBER--ON ISRAEL'S
FAILURE TO PULL BACK TO THE CEASE-FIRE LINES OF 22 OCTOBER. THE
NONALIGNED STATES, PARTICULARLY KENYA, SEEM TO BE THE CHIEF AGITATORS
FOR A PUBLIC SESSION. //MOVEI`1ENT TOWARD A COUNCIL MEETING IS NO
DOUBT I1TENDED TO BRING PRESSURE ON THE US. THE NONALIGNED STATES
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USED THIS TACTIC BEFORE THE CEASE-FIRE AND ARE APPARENTLY EMPLOYING
IT NOW TO UNDERLINE THE ARAB MESSAGE THAT THERE MUST BE SOME
POSITIVE DEVELOPMENTS FROM SECRETARY KISSINGER'S MIDDLE EAST
CONSULTATIONS.//
DIPLOMATIC ACTIVITY IS INTENSIFYING AS PLANS GO FORWARD FOR
TWO SUMMIT CONFERENCES INVOLVING THE ARAB COUNTRIES. THE SEPARATE
TRAVELS OF PRESIDENTS QADHAFI AND BOUMEDIENE IN RECENT DAYS WERE
PROBABLY INTENDED IN PART TO CONSOLIDATE PLANS FOR THE ARAB
SUMMIT CONFERENCE WHICH QADHAFI IS URGING AND BOUMEDIENE MAY HOST
IN THE NEAR FUTURE. IN ADDITION, BOUMEDIENE'S CALL FOR A SUMMIT
MEETING OF ORGANIZA'?N OF AFRICAN UNITY COUNTRIES HAS BEEN
ANSWERED FAVORABLY BY ALL ARAB MEMBER STATES AND SEVERAL KEY
AFRICAN NATIONS; BOUMEDIENE MAY HOPE TO HOLD THIS CONFERENCE AS
WELL IN ALGIERS IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE ARAB SUMMIT.
//THE FOREIGN MINISTERS OF THE NINE EC COUNTRIES, MEETING IN
BRUSSELS, ISSUED A JOINT DECLARATION ON THE MIDDLE EAST ON 6
NOVEMBER THAT LEANS SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE ARAB SIDE. THE DECLARATION
CALLS ON THE FORCES OF BOTH SIDES TO RETURN IMMEDIATELY TO POSITIONS
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OCCUPIED ON 22 OCTOBER, AND URGES THAT NEGOTIATIONS TAKE PLACE
WITHIN THE UN FRAMEWORK. THE STATEMENT DID NOT, HOWEVER, CHARGE
BRITAIN AND FRANCE, AS SECURITY COUNCIL PERMANENT MEMBERS, WITH
REPRESENTING THE EC NINE, PROBABLY BECAUSE THE TWO ARE MORE PRO-
ARAB THAN MANY OF THE OTHER EC MEMBERS. {SECRET NO FOREIGN DISSEM//
E-2 IMPDET.H
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ITEMS MARKED & HAVE BEEN COORDINATED WITH THE DEPARTMENTS OF
STATE AND DEFENSE.
1. CAMBODIA: THE KHMER COMMUNISTS RECENTLY HAVE INFLICTED
A
SEVERAL SETBACKS ON GOVERNMENT FORCES.
THE INSURGENTS ON 4 NOVEMBER FORCED GOVERNMENT TROOPS OUT OF THE
ISOLATED TOWN OF TUK LAAK ON ROUTE 5, SOME 35 MILES NORTH OF PHNOM
PENH. OF THE APPROXIMATELY 750 TROOPS THAT WERE AT TUK LAAK, ONLY
300 THUS FAR HAVE MANAGED TO WORK 'THEIR WAY NORTH TO KOMPONG CHHNANG
CITY.
NOW HOLD AN 11-MILE SECTION OF THE HIGHWAY
SALA LEK PRAM. THE GOVERNMENT APPARENTLY
DOES NOT INTEND TO MAKE ANY MAJOR EFFORT TO REOPEN THE ROAD UNTIL
EARLY NEXT YEAR.
ANOTHER MILITARY REVERSE OCCURRED ON 3 NOVEMBER, WHEN THE COM-
MUNISTS DROVE GOVERNMENT UNITS OUT OF TRAM KHNAR, 25 MILES SOUTH-
WEST OF PHNOM PIENH ON ROUTE 3. TRAM KHNAR HAD BEEN ISOLATED AND
UNDER PRESSURE FOR ALMOST TWO MONTHS. THERE WERE BETWEEN 1,200 AND
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ILLEGIB
1,400 TROOPS AND ABOUT 31000 CIVILIANS AT TRAM KHNAR, AND ONLY A FEW
OF THESE HAVE MADE THEIR WAY BACK TO FRIENDLY LINES NEAR ROUTE 4.
G til 1,~ ~,, :. 1 r C
1 THE TOWN OF SRANG WAS EVACUATED. THERE WERE 700 TROOPS
ILLEGIB
AND 4,000 CIVILIANS AT SRANG--THE REMAINING GOVERNMENT ENCLAVE IN
THIS AREA. ALTHOUGH NEITHER TRAM KHNAR NOR SRANG ARE IMPORTANT
TACTICALLY, THEIR LOSS IS BOUND TO HAVE SOME DEMORALIZING EFFECT ON
THE CAMBODIAN ARMY.
CLOSER TO PHNOM PENH, CAMBODIAN ARMY UNITS HAVE (ERASED RECENT
COMMUNIST GAINS ON THE EAST BANK OF'THE MEKONG RIVER BY IURETAKING
SEVERAL VILLAGES WITHIN TEN MILES OF THE CAPITAL. THE COMMUNISTS,
HOWEVER, ARE CONTINUING TO HARASS VIHEAR SUOR, THE GOVERNMENT'S
MAIN GARRISON IN THIS AREA. ELSEWHERE IN THE PHNOM PENH REGION,
GOVERNMENT OPERATIONS TO RETAKE GROUND ALONG THE CAPITAL'S SOUTHERN
FRONT BETWEEN ROUTES 2 AND 3 ARE STILL STALLED.
MEANWHILE, THE KHMER COMMUNISTS CONTINUE TO CALL FOR AN ALL-OUT
MILITARY EFFOR T DURING THE FORTHCOMING DRY SEASON. IN A STATEMENT
ISSUED ON 3 NOVEMBER, SIHANOUK'S IN-COUNTRY "DEFENSE MINISTER,"
KHIEV SAMPHAN, CALLED FOR ATTACKS IN "AREAS SURROUNDING PHNOM PENH"
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AND AGAINST OUTLYING PROVINCIAL CAPITALS AS WELL AS INTENSIFIED IN-
TERDICTION EFFORTS ALONG THE MEKONG RIVER AND AGAINST PHNOM PENH'S
OVERLAND SUPPLY ROUTES. HE ALSO EMPHASIZED THAT THE INSURGENTS WERE
"DETERMINED TO HOLD THEIR DESTINY IN THEIR OWN HANDS" AND "TO WAGE
THE STRUGGLE TO THE END WITHOUT COMPROMISE." {SECRET}
\'?. ILLEGIB
2. LAOS: THE GOVERNMENT HAS EDGED CLOSER TOWARD IMPLEMENTA-
TION OF THE PEACE AGREEMENT, BUT A NUMBER OF OBSTACLES REMAIN.
ON 6 NOVEMBER THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY PASSED A RESOLUTION GEN-
ERALLY SUPPORTING THE PEACE AGREEMENTS AND THE PRINCIPLE OF A NEW
COALITION GOVERNMENT. THE RESOLUTION IS A GOOD DEAL LESS THAN A
RINGING ENDORSEMENT, BUT PRIME MINISTER SOUVANNA WILL NO DOUBT IN-
TERPRET IT AS FULFILLING THE CONSTITUTIONAL REQUIREMENT OF HAVING
ASSEMBLY APPROVAL BEFORE A NEW COALITION GOVERNMENT CAN BE INVESTED
BY THE KING.
//ALTHOUGH THE ASSEMBLY ADJOURNED ON 7 NOVEMBER AND WOULD NOT
NIOR!MALLY RECONVENE UNTIL NEXT SPRING, SOUVANNA'S PROBLEMS WITH THE
ASSEMBLY MAY NOT BE OVER. THE 6 NOVEMBER RESOLUTION CALLS FOR CON-
TINUED CONSULTATION BETWEEN. SOUVANNA AND THE ASSEMBLY. SOME
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AMBITIONS FOR A PLACE IN THE NEW GOVERNMENT, BUT SOUVANNA MAY NOT SEE
THINGS THEIR WAY. WITH THE KING'S BACKING, SOUVANNA CAN CONSTITUTIONII^
ILLEGIB
ALLY DO WHAT HE WANTS. THE DEPUTIES COULD STILL CAUSE HIP
IF THEY TAKE THEIR COMPLAINTS TO SOME OF THE TOP MILITARY LEADERS WHO
ARE ALREADY ANNOYED WITH SOUVANNA'S UNILATERAL DEALINGS WITH THE LAO
COMMUNISTS.// {CONFIDENTIAL}
&3. CHINA-PHILIPPINES: ACCORDING TO THE MANILA PRESS, THE
PHILIPPINES LATER THIS MONTH WILL DISCUSS WITH A CHINESE TRADE
DELEGATION PEKING'S OFFER TO SUPPLY CRUDE OIL. PHILIPPINE
OFFICIALS FEAR THAT A SEVERE OIL SHORTAGE WILL RESULT FROM DELIVERY
CUTBACKS RANGING FROM 12 TO 34 PERCENT RECENTLY ANNOUNCED
BY US OIL COMPANIES. THESE COMPANIES SUPPLY THE
PHILIPPINES WITH ALMOST ITS ENTIRE ANNUAL REQUIREMENT
OF ABOUT 9 MILLION METRIC TONS OF PETROLEUM. ATTEMPTS
TO PURCHASE OIL DIRECTLY FROM MIDDLE EASTERN COUNTRIES
HAVE BEEN INCONCLUSIVE, AND MANILA DOES NOT EXPECT
CURRENT NEGOTIATIONS WITH INDONESIA TO RESULT IN ANY
4Ilhlu^Igoggles goUNION
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SIGNIFICANT QUANTITIES.
IF THE CHINESE OFFER WAS INDEED MADE, IT PROB-
ABLY INVOLVED ONLY TOKEN AMOUNTS OF OIL. PEKING IS
NOT KNOWN TO HAVE EXPORTED OIL PREVIOUSLY TO NON-
COMMUNIST DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, ALTHOUGH IT MAY HAVE
RECENTLY DISCUSSED SUCH AN ARRANGEMENT WITH BANGKOK.
AS A FRIENDLY GESTURE, THE CHINESE HAVE SOLD SMALL
QUANTITIES OF RICE AT BELOW-MARKET PRICES TO SEVERAL
SOUTHEAST ASIAN STATES WITH WHOM PEKING IS SEEKING
CLOSER POLITICAL TIE:.
CHINA HERETOFORE HAS SEEMED CONTENT WITH THE
SLOW PACE OF RAPPROCHEMENT WITH MANILA. RECENT DE-
VELOPMENTS, INCLUDING THE VISIT OF A SOVIET TRADE
MISSION TO MANILA. AND DIFFICULTIES ENCOUNTERED BY
PEKING IN NORMALIZING ITS RELATIONS WITH THAILAND,
MALAYSIA, AND INDONESIA, MAY HAVE PROMPTED CHINA'S
DECISION TO SEND A TRADE DELEGATION AT THIS TIME.
{CONFIDENTIAL}
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&4. //NATIONALIST CHINA; TAIPEI APP^UARENTLY IS STILL CON-
SIDERING PLANS TO CONSTRUCT A NUCLEAR FUELS REPROCESSING PLANT.//
25X1 C
THE NATIONALISTS CONTRACTED SOMETIME PRIOR TO MID-OCTOBER WITH A
FRENCH COMPANY TO PREPARE ARCHITECTURAL AND ENGINEERING PLANS FOR THE
PROPOSED PLANT. THE PLANT OSTENSIBLY WOULD BE USED TO REPROCESS
POWER REACTOR FUEL, BUT IT COULD ALSO REPROCESS THE IRRADIATED FUEL
FROM TAIWAN'S HEAVY WATER RESEARCH REACTOR. THE REACTOR, WHICH HAS
BEEN OPERATIONAL SINCE EARLY THIS YEAR, IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
ENOUGH WEAPONS-GRADE PLUTONIUM ANNUALLY FOR ONE OR TWO LOW-YIELD
WEAPONS. THE REACTOR, HOWEVER, IS STILL UNDER THE IAEA SAFEGUARDS,
WHICH PRECLUDE THE USE OF IRRADIATED FUEL FOR NUCLEAR WEAPONS.//
//CONSTRUCTION OF THE REPROCESSING PLANT MAY TAKE THREE OR FOUR
YEARS, BUT ONCE BUILT, IT WOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT STEP BY TAIPEI IN
DEVELOPING THE CAPABILITY TO BUILD A NUCLEAR DEVICE. {SECRET}
5. i ARAB STATES - ISRAEL: CEASE-FIRE VIOLATIONS
WERE REPORTED FROM BOTH FRONTS ON 6 NOVEMBER.
DAMASCUS CHARGED THAT ISRAELI AIRCRAFT ATTACKED
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SYRIAN POSITIONS YESTERDAY MORNING IN THE CENTRAL AND
O
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S')UTHERN SECTORS OF THE FRONT, USING WHAT THE SYRIANS
DESCRIBED AS SHRIKE MISSILES; THE SHRIKE IS A US MIS-
SILE USED TO DESTROY RADARS. THE SYRIANS CLAIM TO
HAVE REPELLED THE ATTACKS, WHILE AN ISRAELI SPOKESMAN
CONTENDED HE HAD "NO- INFORMATION" ON 'I';;r~ ? THE AT-
TACKS CANNOT BE CONFIRMED. THE SYRIAN
FRONT HAS BEEN RELATIVELY QUIET SINCE THE CEASE-FIRE,
AND THIS ATTACK IS THE FIRST MAJOR VIOL"SiION THUS FAR
REPORTED.
ON THE EGYPTIAN FRONT, AN ISRAELI MILITARY SPOKES-
MAN REPORTED ONE MINOR INCIDENT IN THE SECOND ARMY
SECTOR YESTERDAY AND TWO OTHERS IN THE THIRD ARMY AREA.
ACCORDING TO THE ISRAELIS, THE EGYPTIANS INITIATED ALL
THREE INCIDENTS BUT BROKE CONTACT WHEN THE ISRAELIS
OPENED FIRE. NO CASUALTIES WERE REPORTED. THE ISRAELIS HAVE
AGREED TO PERMIT AN ADDITIONAL 50 TRUCKS WITH NONMILITARY
SUPPLIES TO PASS THROUGH THEIR LINES TO THE ENCIRCLED
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ISRAEL ANNOUNCED ON 6' OCTOBER THAT L,854 ISRAELI
SOLDIERS HAD BEEN KILLED DURING THE WAR, AND THAT AN
ALMOST EQUAL NUMBER OF WOUNDED WERE STILL HOSPITALIZED.
THE ISRAELIS PREVIOUSLY HAD NOT DISCLOSED CASUALTY
TOTALS, EXCEPT FOR AN ANNOUNCEMENT ON L5 OCTOBER THAT
656 SOLDIERS HAD BEEN KILLED IN THE FIRST EIGHT DAYS
OF FIGHTING. WHILE THE PUBLIC HAS SUSPECTED HEAVY
CASUALTIES, THESE FIGURES--THREE TIMES THE TOTAL
DURING THE 1967 WAR--WILL BE A SHOCK IN CASUALTY-
SENSITIVE ISRAEL. THE FIGURES COULD HAVE A SOBERING
EFFECT ON THOSE FAVORING A RENEWAL OF THE WAR, AND
PRIME MINISTER MEIR MAY BE TRYING TO PREPARE THE PUB-
LIC FOR SOME ISRAELI CONCESSIONS.
AT THE UN, THERE IS GROWING PRESSURE FOR A FOR-
MAL MEETING OF THE SECURITY COUNCIL--POSSIBLY AS
EARLY AS 7 NOVEMBER--ON ISRAEL'S FAILURE TO PULL BACK TO
THE CEASE-FIRE LINES OF 22 OCTOBER. THE NONALIGNED
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STATES, PARTICULARLY KENYA, SEEM TO BE THE CHIEF
AGITATORS FOR A PUBLIC SESSION. //MOVEMENT TOWARD A
COUNCIL MEETING IS NO DOUBT INTENDED TO BRING PRES-
SURE ON THE US. THE NONALIGNED STATES USED THIS
TACTIC BEFORE THE CEASE-FIRE AND ARE APPARENTLY E!",-
PLOYING IT NOW TO UNDERLINE THE ARAB MESSAGE THAT
THERE MUST BE SOME POSITIVE DEVELOPMENTS FROM SEC-
RETARY KISSINGER'S MIDDLE EAST CONSULTATIONS.//
DIPLOMATIC ACTIVITY IS INTENSIFYING AS PLANS GO
FORWARD FOR TWO SUMMIT CONFERENCES INVOLVING THE
ARAB COUNTRIES. THE SEPARATE TRAVELS OF PRESIDENTS
QADHAFI AND BOUMEDIENE IN RECENT DAYS WERE PROBABLY
INTENDED IN PART TO CONSOLIDATE PLANS FOR THE ARAB
SUMMIT CONFERENCE WHICH QADHAFI IS URGING AND BOUME-
DIENE MAY HOST IN THE NEAR FUTURE. IN ADDITION,
BOUMEDIENE'S CALL FOR A SUMMIT MEETING OF ORGANIZATION
OF AFRICAN UNITY COUNTRIES HAS BEEN ANSWERED FAVOR-
ABLY BY ALL ARAB MEMBER STATES AND SEVERAL KEY AF-
DATE:
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RICAN NATIONS; BOUMEDIENE MAY HOPE TO HOLD THIS CON-
FERENCE AS WELL IN ALGIERS' IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE
ARAB SUMMIT.
//THE FOREIGN MINISTERS OF THE NINE EC COUNTRIES,
MEETING IN BRUSSELS, ISSJED A JOINT DECLARATION ON
THE MIDDLE EAST ON 6 NOVEMBER THAT LEANS SLIGHTLY TOWARD
THE ARAB SIDE. THE DECLARATION CALLS ON THE FORCES
OF BOTH SIDES TO RETURN IMMEDIATELY TO POSITIONS
OCCUPIED ON 22 OCTOBER, AND URGES THAT NEGOTIATIONS
TAKE PLACE WITHIN THE UN FRAMEWORK. THE STATEMENT
DID NOT, HOWEVER, CHARGE BRITAIN AND FRANCE, AS SE-
CURITY COUNCIL PERMANENT MEMBERS, WITH REPRESENTING
THE EC NINE, PROBABLY BECAUSE THE TWO ARE MORE PRO-
ARAB THAN MANY OF THE OTHER EC MEMBERS. {SECRET} E-2 IMPDET rl
PER _#
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MIDDLE EAST AFRICA BRIEF 068.
PAGE OF PAGES
ITEMS MARKED & HAVE BEEN COORDINATED WITH THE DEPARTMENTS OF
STATE AND DEFENSE.
1. ARAB STATES - ISRAEL: CEASE-FIRE VIOLATIONS
WERE REPORTED FROM BOTH FRONTS ON 6 NOVEMBER.
DAMASCUS CHARGED THAT ISRAELI AIRCRAFT ATTACKED
SYRIAN POSITIONS YESTERDAY MORNING IN THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SECTORS OF THE FRONT, USING WHAT THE SYRIANS
DESCRIBED AS SHRIKE MISSILES; THE SHRIKE IS A US MIS-
SILE USED TO DESTROY RADARS. THE SYRIANS CLAIM TO
HAVE REPELLED THE ATTACKS, WHILE AN ISRAELI SPOKESMAN
CONTENDED HE HAD "NO INFORMATION" ON THEM. THE AT-
TACKS CANNOT BE CONFIRMED. THE SYRIAN
FRONT HAS BEEN RELATIVELY QUIET SINCE THE CEASE-FIRE,
AND THIS ATTACK IS THE FIRST MAJOR VIOLATION THUS FAR
REPORTED.
ON THE EGYPTIAN FRONT, AN ISRAELI MILITARY SPOKES-
MAN REPORTED ONE MINOR INCIDENT IN THE SECOND ARMY
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0 RETURN TO
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ACCORDING TO THE ISRAELIS, THE EGYPTIANS INITIATED ALL
THREE INCIDENTS BUT BROKE CONTACT WHEN THE ISRAELIS
OPENED FIRE. NO CASUALTIES WERE REPORTED. THE ISRAELIS HAVE
AGREED TO PERMIT AN ADDITIONAL 50 TRUCKS WITH NONMILITARY
SUPPLIES TO PASS THROUGH THEIR LINES TO THE ENCIRCLED
EGYPTIAN THIRD ARMY.
ISRAEL ANNOUNCED ON 6 OCTOBER THAT L1854 ISRAELI
SOLDIERS HAD BEEN KILLED DURING THE WAR, AND THAT AN
ALMOST EQUAL NUMBER OF WOUNDED WERE STILL HOSPITALIZED.
THE ISRAELIS PREVIOUSLY HAD NOT DISCLOSED CASUALTY
TOTALS, EXCEPT FOR AN ANNOUNCEMENT ON L5 OCTOBER THAT
656 SOLDIERS HAD BEEN KILLED IN THE FIRST EIGHT DAYS
OF FIGHTING. WHILE THE PUBLIC HAS SUSPECTED HEAVY
CASUALTIES, THESE FIGURES--THREE TIMES THE TOTAL
DURING THE 196? WAR--WILL BE A SHOCK IN CASUALTY-
SENSITIVE ISRAEL. THE FIGURES COULD HAVE A SOBERING
EFFECT ON THOSE FAVORING A RENEWAL OF THE WAR, AND
EXT:
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PRIM? MINISTER MEIR MAY BE TRYING TO PREPARE THE PUB-
PER ___#
LIC FOR SOME ISRAELI CONCESSIONS.
AT THE UN1 THERE IS GROWING PRESSURE FOR A FOR-
MAL MEETING OF THE SECURITY COUNCIL--POSSIBLY AS
EARLY AS 7 NOVEMBER--ON ISRAEL'S FAILURE TO PULL BACK TO
THE CEASE-FIRE LINES OF 22 OCTOBER. THE NONALIGNED
STATES, PARTICULARLY KENYA, SEEM TO BE THE CHIEF
AGITATORS FOR A PUBLIC SESSION. //MOVEMENT TOWARD A
COUNCIL MEETING IS NO DOUBT INTENDED TO BRING PRES-
SURE ON THE US. THE NONALIGNED STATES USED THIS
TACTIC BEFORE THE CEASE-FIRE AND ARE APPARENTLY EM-
PLOYING IT NOW TO UN)ERLINE THE ARAB MESSAGE THAT
THERE MUST BE SOME POSITIVE DEVELOPMENTS FROM SEC-
RETARY KISSINGER'S MIDDLE EAST CONSULTATIONS.//
DIPLOMATIC ACTIVITY IS INTENSIFYING AS PLANS GO
FORWARD FOR TWO SUMMIT CONFERENCES INVOLVING THE
ARAB COUNTRIES. THE SEPARATE TRAVELS OF PRESIDENTS
QADHAFI AND BOUMEDIENE'IN RECENT DAYS WERE PROBABLY
DATE:
ORIG:
UNIT:
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INT[ND?ED IN PART TO CONSOLIDATE PLANS FOR THE ARAB
PER _#
SUMMIT CONFERENCE WHICH QADHAFI IS URGING AND BOUME-
DIENE MAY HOST IN THE NEAR FUTURE. IN ADDITION,
BOUMEDIENE'S CALL FOR A SUMMIT MEETING OF ORGANIZATION
OF AFRICAN UNITY COUNTRIES HAS BEEN ANSWERED FAVOR-
ABLY BY ALL ARAB MEMBER STATES AND SEVERAL KEY AF-
RICAN NATIONS; BOUMEDIENE MAY HOPE TO HOLD THIS CON-
FERENCE AS WELL IN ALGIERS IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING ThE
ARAB SUMMIT.
//THE FOREIGN MINISTERS OF THE NINE. EC COUNTRIES,
MEETING IN BRUSSELS, ISSUED A JOINT DECLARATION ON
THE MIDDLE EAST ON 6 NOVEMBER THAT LEANS SLIGHTLY TOWARD
THE ARAB SIDE. THE DECLARATION CALLS ON THE FORCES
OF BOTH SIDES TO RETURN IMMEDIATELY TO POSITIONS
OCCUPIED ON 22 OCTOBER, AND URGES THAT NEGOTIATIONS
TAKE PLACE WITHIN THE UN FRAMEWORK. THE STATEMENT
DID NOT, HOWEVER, CHARGE BRITAIN AND FRANCE, AS SE-
CURITY COUNCIL PERMANENT MEMBERS, WITH REPRESENTING
DATE:
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THE EC NINE, PROBABLY BECAUSE THE TWO ARE MORE PRO-
ILLEGIB
ILLEGIB ARAB THAN MANY OF THE OTHER EC MEMBER RET} 101011011101111
2. TURKEY: THE REFU/SAL OF THE RIGHT-WING NATIONAL SALVATION
PARTY TO JOIN A GOVERNMENT LED BY REPUBLICAN PEOPLES PARTY LEADER
ECEVIT APPARENTLY ENDS ECEVIT'S HOPES OF FORMING A COALITION GOVERN-
MINT. HE HAS STATED PUBLICLY THAT THERE IS NO POSSIBILITY OF A
COALITION WITH ANOTHER PARTY.
THE LEFT-OF-CENTER REPUBLICAN PEOPLES PARTY {RPP} WHICH WON A
PLURALITY IN LAST MONTH'S ELECTIONS; HAD BEEN TURNED DOWN EARLIER BY
THE OTHER PARTIES. IT HAD BEEN NEGOTIATING WITH THE SALVATION PARTY
{NSP} SINCE 27 OCTOBER, WHEN ECEVIT WAS DESIGNATED PRIME MINISTER
AND ASKED TO FORM A GOVERNMENT. THE NSP'S LETTER TO ECEIVIT RE-
FUSING THE COALITION, WHICH WAS READ TO THE PRESS DID
NOT OUTLINE THE REASONS FOR REFUSAL. HAVE INDICATEWIC
HOWEVER, THAT THE TWO PARTIES COULD NOT AGREE ON THE ALLOCATION OF
CABINET POSTS, ESPECIALLY THE KEY INTERIOR MINISTRY.^//
//PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANT, NSP LEADER ERBAKAN APPARENTLY HAD
TROUBLE ENFORCING DISCIPLINE WITHIN HIS OWN PARTY; 25 OF HIS
DATE:
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DEPUTIES REPORTEDLY THREATENED TO DEFECT IF THEIR PIIARTY AGREED TO
ENTER A COALITION WITH THE?RPP. A NUMBER OF THE NEWLY ELECTED NSP
DEPUTIES ARE MUSLIM RELIGIOUS LEADERS WHO PROBABLY WERE UNEASY ABOUT
AN ALLIANCE WITH THE MODERNIST, SECULAR RPP. NSP PROVINCIAL LEADERS
MAY ALSO HAVE BEEN CONCERNED BY THEIR VULNERABILITY TO CRITICISM
FROM THE RIGHT IF THEY HELPED THE RPP FORM A GOVERNMENT. skid--1jD.I7
C --T@aBLE__,E,R,BAKAN WAS- IN- WIT+HIiJ HIS OLIN PARTY LAST WEEK
W -IH3S`L-A'ST-'DITCN'-'ATT?EMwT-.. TO ENTICE. JUSTICE PARTY LEADER DEMIREL
INTO- ARIGHT-WdIN&? {OALITION; DEMIREL REFUSED.//
THERE ARE NOW A WIDE RIANGE OF ALTERNATIVES. SOME OF THEM ARE:
--ECEVIT HEADS A MINORITY GOVERNMENT; SUCH A GOVERNMENT, WHICH
ECEVIT HAS DESCRIBED AS UNDESIRABLE BUT WHICH HE MIGHT BE WILLING TO
TRY, WOULD HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME GETTING ANY MEASURES THROUGH
PARLIAMENT;
--ECEVIT STEPS DOWN AS FORMATEUR AND A LEADER FROM THE CENTER
OR RIGHT IS DESIGNATED TO FORM A GOVERNMENT;
--AN "ABOVE PARTIES" GOVERNMENT MODELED AFTER THE REGIME OF THE
LAST TWO YEARS; THIS WAY OUT MAY BECOME MORE LIKELY AS TIME PASSES
DATE:
ORIG:
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WITH NO GOVERNMENT FORMED;
--A PROLONGED PO
PER _#
DO/DDO
{SECRET} E-2 IMPDETH ILLEGIB
DATE: 7 NOVEMBER 1973
OR:G: 25X1 A
UNIT:
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EUROPEAN BRIEF 068.
PER l#L
ITEMS MARKED & HAVE BEEN COORDINATED WITH THE DEPARTMENTS OF
STATE AND DEFENSE.
USSR: THE KEYNOTE SPEECH AT THE 6 NOVEMBER OCTOBER
ANNIVERSARY CELEBRATIONS IN MOSCOW WAS MOST NOTEWORTHY
FOR ITS //RESTRAINED TREA,I'MENT OF SOVIET RELATIONS WITH
THE US AND FOR //THE ACCOLADES GIVEN TO PARTY CHIEF
BREZHNEV.
TRADITIONALLY AN OCCASION FOR MARKING SOVIET SUC-
CESSES, THE SPEECH DELIVERED YESTERDAY BY SENIOR POL-
ITBURO MEMBER ANDREY KIRILENKO WAS NO EXCEPTION.
KIRILENKO SURVEYED THE WORLD SITUATION AS IT HAS DE-
VELOPED OVER THE PAST YEAR, DRAWING SPECIAL ATTENTION
TO MOSCOW'S POLICY OF DETENTE AND TO BREZHNEV'S PER-
SONAL ROLE IN THE FORMULATION AND IMPLEMENTATION OF
THAT POLICY. //ACCORDING TO KIRILENKO, "PROMISING
SHIFTS" HAVE OCCURRED IN THE POLITICAL SITUATION IN
EUROPE, MOST NOTABLY IN MOSCOW'S RELATIONS WITH FRANCE,
DATE:
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WEST GERNNANY, AND BRITAIN, AND THE OUTLOOK IS FOR FUR-
PER
THER IMPROVEMENT. //AMONG. HIS M.A'NY REFERENCES TO THE
SOVIET PARTY LEADER, KIRILENKO SAID THAT BRE?HNEV'S
CONTRIBUTION TO DETENTE IN EUROPE AND IN THE WORLD
AT LARGE IS "UNIVERSALLY ACKNOWLEDGED."
//KIRILENKO'S TREATMENT OF SOVIET RELATIONS WITH
THE US WAS GENERALLY POSITIVE, BUT REFLECTED STRAINS
BROUGHT ABOUT BY DEVELOPMENTS IN THE MIDDLE EAST CRI-
SIS. HE SAID THAT THE USSR ATTACHES "MUCH IMPORTANCE"
TO RELATIONS WITH THE US, BUT HE MODIFIED MOSCOW'S
APPRECIATION OF ACCOMPLISHMENTS OVER THE PAST TWO
YEARS BY ASSERTING THAT DEVELOPMENTS ARE ONLY MOVING
"IN THE DIRECTION" OF DETENTE. SIMILARLY, HE CITED
THE MAJOR DOCUMENTS OF THE MOSCOW AND WASHINGTON SUM-
MITS AND SOVIET ADHERENCE TO THEM, BUT ALLOWED AS
HOW THE US WAS ALSO EXPECTED TO ADHERE TO THE SPIRIT
AND THE LETTER OF THOSE AGREEMENTS.//
KIRILENKO'S REVIEW OF THE SITUATION IN THE MID-
DATE:
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DLE EAST WAS FAIRLY RELAXED, ALTHOUGH IT CONTAINED
CUSTOMARY ATTACKS AGAINST ISRAEL. HE MAINTAINED THAT
ISRAELI FORCES MUST BE WITHDRAWN TO POSITIONS OC-
CUPIED AT THE TIME OF THE CEASE-FIRE OF 22 OCTOBER,
AND SAID THEIR WITHDRAWAL IS AN "URGENT NECESSITY"
AND A "FIRST STEP" TOWARD SETTLEMENT OF THE CONFLICT.
HIS TREATMENT OF THE MIDDLE EAST WAS HIGHLIGHTED BY
THE ASSERTION THAT THE PROSPECTS FOR STABLE PEACE
IN THE AREA ARE BETTER NOW,THAN EVER BEFORE.
HIS DISCUSSION OF THE USSR'S DOMESTIC SITUATION
CONTAINED HIGH PRAISE FOR RECENT ACCOMPLISHMENTS AND
HELD OUT PROMISE FOR FURTHER ACHIEVEMENTS. HE RE-
PEATED BREZHNEV'S RECENT CLAIM OF A RECORD SOVIET
GRAIN HARVEST, AND WENT ON TO ATTRIBUTE THIS SUCCESS
SPECIFICALLY TO THE POLICIES INITIATED BY BREZHNEV
EIGHT YEARS AGO. IN KEEPING WITH HIS GENERALLY UP-
BEAT PRESENTATION, KIRILENKO SAID THAT THE PROSPECTS
FOR FULFILLING THE MAIN INDICES OF THE FIVE-YEAR
DATE:
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PLAN ARE GOOD, AND THAT THE REGIME WILL CONTINUE TO DEVOTE PRIMARY
ATTENTION TO IMPROVING THE-STANDARD OF LIVING OF THE SOVIET POPU-
LATIONS. {CONFIDENTIAL}
2. //EC-MIDDLE EAST: THIS WEEK'S AGREEMENT OF THE EC NINE ON
A GENERALLY PRO-ARAB MIDDLE EAST DECLARATION MAY HAVE STEMMED IN
PART FROM A BELIEF THAT IT WOULD EASE OIL PROCUREMENT FOR ALL EUROPE,
INCLUDING THE DUTCH.//
//DURING EC DISCUSSIONS OF THE ARAB EMBARGO OF OIL SUPPLIES TO
THE NETHERLANDS AND CUTS ELSEWHERE, THE BRITISH AND THE FRENCH RE-
PORTEDLY PRESSED THE DUTCH--WHO HAD THE SUPPORT OF THE DANES, BEL-
GIANS, AND LUIXEMBOURGERS--TO ABANDON THEIR CALL FOR COMMUNITY SOLI-
DARITY ON OIL SUPPLIES. ACCORDING TO THE 1-1 ISRAELI
AMBASSADOR IN BRUSSELS, THE FRENCH GAVE "ASSURANCES" THAT THE ARABS,
IN RETURN FOR THE PROPOSED DECLARATION, WOULD SEE TO KNIT THAT EUROPE,
INCLUDING THE DUTCH, WOULD NOT LACK FOR OIL.Iu//
//THE IIU"ASSURANCES" COULD BE ARAB ACQUIESCENCE IN SOME DE-
GREE OF DE FACTO HELP FOR THE DUTCH BY THE COMMUNITY. EC COMMISSIONER
FOR ENERGY SIMONET BELIEVES THAT SUCH AID WILL BE FORTHCOMING.//
DATE:
ORIG:
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PER
//THE PRO-ARAB SLANT OF THE NINE'S DECLARATION IS EVIDENT IN
THE CALL FOR A RETURN TO POSITIONS OCCUPIED ON 22 OCTOBER, WHICH
APPARENTLY MAKES WITHDRAWAL A (PREREQUISITE FOR SETTLEMENT OF THE
PRISONER OF WAR ISSUE. IN ADDITION, THE REFERENCE TO THE "LEGITI-
MATE RIG.JTS OF THE PALESTINIANS" GOES BEYOND THE LANGUAGE OF SECURITY
COUNCIL RESOLUTION 242.//
//INITIAL ARAB REACTION TO THE EC STATEMENT HAS BEEN FAVORABLE.
A LEADING CAIRO NEWSPAPER HAS SAID THE EC POSITION WILL HELP TO
BRING PRESSURE-ON ISRAEL. THE PALESTINIAN NEWS AGENCY DESCRIBED THE
STATEMENT EIS INDISPUTABLY A STEP ON THE PATH TO UNDERSTANDING THE
PALESTINIAN CAUSE.//
//THE ATMOSPHERE AT THE BRUSSELS MEETING WAS REPORTED TO BE
TENSE, ESPECIALLY WHEN THE FRENCH PROPOSED THAT THE NINE SEIZE THE
OCCASION TO DISSOCIATE THEMSELVES FROM THE US AND ESTABLISH AN IN-
DEPENDENT EUROPEAN POSITION EMBRACING NEUTRALITY ON THE MIDDLE EAST,
BOTH WITH RESPECT TO THE SUPER POWERS AND TO ARABS AND ISRAELIS.
THE FRENCH OFFERED TO LEAD EUROPE IN THIS NEUTRALITY AND LINKED IT
WITH THEIR PROPOSAL TO DEVELOP ALTERNATIVE SOURCES OF ENERGY BY
DATE:
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CONSTRUCTING A GASEOUS DIFFUSION PLANT TO SUPPLY EUROPE WITH EN-
RICHED URANIUM. THE PRICE'TAG ON THE PROPOSED FACILITY IS ESTIMATED
AT $2 BILLION. THE AMERICAN EMBASSY IN PARIS HAD PREDICTED EARLIER
THAT THE FRENCH WOULD "PULL OUT ALL STOPS" IN AN EFFORT TO OBTAIN
EUROPEAN PARTICIPATION IN THE FINANCING. OF THE PROJECT. AT THE EC
COUNCIL MEETING, HOWEVER, THE OTHERS DEMURRED.//
//SIMONET HAS COMMENTED ON THE MARKED DISTRUST OF SOME EURO-
PEAN OFFICIALS FOR THE US. HE EMPHASIZED HIS OWN SENSE OF URGENCY
THAT THE US AND EUROPE SHOULD CONCERT AN ENERGY POLICY BEFORE THE
END OF THE YEAR. {SECRET}//
? //EUROPEAN SECURITY CONFERENCE: THE CONFERENCE ON SEUCIU-
RITY AND COOPERATION IN EUROPE HAS BEEN UNDER WAY FOR MORE THAN SIX
WEEKS BUT STILL HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO MOVE BEYOND THE MOST GENERAL DIS-
CUSSION OF THE ISSUES. THE COMMITTEES AND SUBCOMMITTEES HAVE BEEN
PROCEEDING SO SLOWLY THAT MANY OBSERVERS NOW ARE DOUBTFUL THAT THE
CONFERENCE CAN COMPLETE ITS BUSINESS IN EARLY 1974 AS HAD BEEN EX-
PECTED.//
//THE SOVIETS, WHO DESIRE AN EARLY END TO THE CONFERENCE, HAVE
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,BEEN PUSHING THEIR DRAFT ON "PRINCIPLES OF SECURITY" THAT EMPHASIZES
THE "INVIOLABILITY OF FRONTIERS." THE WEST GERMANS, IN PARTICULAR,'
OPPOSE THE SOVIET DRAFT. THEY WISH TO LINK THE PRINCIPLE OF INVIOLA-
BILITY OF FRONTIERS WITH THE NON-USE OF FORCE IN ORDER TO HOLD OPEN
THE POSSIBILITY OF PEACEFUL ADJUSTMENT OF BORDERS AS A NECESSARY
PRELUDE TO THE EVENTUAL REUNIFICATION OF THE TWO GERMANIYS. SEVERAL
DRAFTS DEALING WITH PRINCIPLES OF SECURITY HAVE BEEN CONSIDERED AND
SHARPLY CRITICIZED BY ONE SIDE OR THE OTHER. A DRAFT BY YUGOSLAVIA
MAY PROVIDE THE BASIS FOR AN EVENTUAL COMPROMISE, -ACCORDING TO THE
US MISSION IN GENEVA.//
//ONE OF THE MOST CONTROVERSIAL ISSUES HAS INVOLVED "CONFIDENCE-
BUILDING MEASURES"--AGREEMENTS TO LIMIT CERTAIN TYPES OF MILITARY
ACTIVITY. THE SOVIETS HAVE MAINTAINED A VERY RESTRICTIVE INTERPRE-
TAITION OF THESE MEASURES, AND LITTLE PROGRESS HAS BEEN MADE IN RE-
SOLVING DIFFERENCES.//
NEAR-STALEMATE HAS DEVELOPED ON ANOTHER CONTROVERSIAL QUES-
TION: THE FREER MOVEMENT OF PEOPLE AND IDEAS BETWEEN THE.TWO BLOCS.
THE SOVIETS HAVE BEEN INSISTING THAT SPECIFIC MEASURES MUST AWAIT
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AGREEMENT ON CERTAIN GENERAL PRINCIPLES. THESE PRINCIPLES OF SOV-
EREIGNTY, NONINTERFERENCE IN THE INTERNAL AFFAIRS OF STATES, AND
RESPECT FOR INTERNATIONAL LAWS AND CUSTOMS WOULD, IF THE SOVIETS HAD
THEIR WAY, BE INCLUDED IN A PREAMBLE AND WOULD HAVE THE EFFECT
OF EMASCULATING THE SPECIFIC MEASURES DESIGNED TO
BRING ABOUT FREER MOVEMENT.//
//LITTLE PROGRESS HAS BEEN MADE ON THE OTHER MAIN
TOPIC--ECONOMIC COOPERATION. THE WEST HAD THOUGHT
THE EASTERN REPRESENTATIVES WOULD BE MAKING DEMAND;
IN THIS AREA, BUT THUS FAR THEY HAVE NOT DONE SO.
THE MEMBERS OF THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITY, ALTHOUGH CLAIM-
ING SPECIAL COMPETENCE IN THE ECONOMIC COOPERATION
AREA, HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO FILL THE VOID BECAUSE OF
THEIR INABILITY TO AGREE ON A COMMON POSITION.//
//THE NEUTRAL PARTICIPANTS AND ROMANIA HAVE BEEN
PRESSING HARD FOUR A LINK BETWEEN THE SECURITY CONFER-
ENCE IN GENEVA AND THE FORCE REDUCTION TALKS, WHICH
BEGAN LAST WEEK IN VIENNA. THE SOVIETS ACTUALLY OP-
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POSE ANY SUCH LINKAGE, BUT PRESUMABLY HAVE BEEN HUMOR-
ING THE NEUTRALS BY SUGGESTING THAT ALL EUROPEAN
STATES COULD PARTICIPATE IN MBFR. SEVERAL OF THE
EASTERN REPRESENTATIVES AT THE VIENNA TALKS ALSO
MENTIONED, IN THEIR OPENING STATEMENTS, THE POSSIBIL-
ITY OF WIDENING THE FORCE REDUCTION FORUM. THE NATO
ALLIES HAVE CONSISTENTLY OPPOSED SUCH MOVES. {CON-
FIDENTIAL I
ARAB STATES - ISRAEL: CEASE-FIRE VIOLATIONS
WERE REPORTED FROM BOTH FRONTS ON 6 NOVEMBER.
DAMASCUS CHARGED THAT ISRAELI AIRCRAFT ATTACKED
SYRIAN POSITIONS YESTERDAY MORNING IN THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SECTORS OF THE FRONT, USING WHAT THE SYRIANS
DESCRIBED AS SHRIKE MISSILES; THE SHRIKE IS A US MIS-
SILE USED TO DESTROY RADARS. THE SYRIANS CLAIM TO
HAVE REPELLED THE ATTACKS, WHILE AN ISRAELI SPOKESMAN
CONTENDED HE HAD "N' INFORMATION" ON THEM. THE AT-
TACKS CANNOT BE CONFIRMED. THE SYRIAN
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FRONT HAS BEEN RELATIVELY QUIET SINCE THE CEASE-FIRE,
PER _#
AND THIS ATTACK IS THE FIRST MAJOR VIOLATION THUS FAR
REPORTED.
ON THE EGYPTIAN FRONT, AN ISRAELI MILITARY SPOKES-
MAN REPORTED ONE MINOR INCIDENT IN THE SECOND ARMY
SECTOR YESTERDAY AND TWQ OTHERS IN THE THIRD ARMY AREA.
ACCORDING TO THE ISRAELIS, THE EGYPTIANS INITIATED ALL
THREE INCIDENTS BUT BROKE CONTACT WHEN THE ISRAELIS
OPENED FIRE. NO CASUALTIES WERE REPORTED. THE ISRAELIS HAVE
AGREED TO PERMIT AN ADDITIONAL 50 TRUCKS WITH NONMILITARY
SUPPLIES TO PASS THROUGH THEIR LINES TO THE ENCIRCLED
EGYPTIAN THIRD ARMY.
ISRAEL ANNOUNCED ON 6 OCTOBER THAT L1854 ISRAELI
SOLDIERS HAD BEEN KILLED DURING THE WAR, AND THAT AN
ALMOST EQUAL NUMBER OF WOUNDED WERE STILL HOSPITALIZED.
THE ISRAELIS PREVIOUSLY HAD NOT DISCLOSED CASUALTY
TOTALS, EXCEPT FOR AN ANNOUNCEMENT ON L5 OCTOBER THAT
656 SOLDIERS HAD BEEN KILLED IN THE FIRST EIGHT DAYS
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OF FIGHTING. WHILE THE PUBLIC HAS SUSPECTED HEAVY
PER ______#
CASUALTIES, THESE FIGURES--THREE TIMES THE TOTAL
DURING THE 1967 WAR--WILL BE A SHOCK IN CASUALTY-
SENSITIVE ISRAEL. THE FIGURES COULD HAVE A SOBERING
EFFECT ON THOSE FAVORING A RENEWAL OF THE WAR, AND
PRIME MINISTER MEIR MAY BE TRYING TO PREPARE THE PUB-
LIC FOR SOME ISRAELI CONCESSIONS.
AT THE UN1 THERE IS GROWING PRESSURE FOR A FOR-
MAL MEETING OF THE SECURITY COUNCII.F LS-IBL-' t AS
EA AS ]ON ISRAEL'S FAILURE TO PULL BACK TO
THE CEASE-FIRE LINES OF 22 OCTOBER. THE NONALIGNED
STATES, PARTICULARLY KENYA, SEEM TO BE THE CHIEF
AGITATORS FOR A PUBLIC SESSION. //MOVEMENT TOWARD A
COUNCIL MEETING IS NO DOUBT INTENDED TO BRING PRES-
SURE ON THE US. THE NONALIGNED STATES USED THIS
TACTIC BEFORE THE CEASE-FIRE AND ARE APPARENTLY EM-
PLOYING IT NOW TO UNDERLINE THE ARAB MESSAGE THAT
THERE MUST BE SOME POSITIVE DEVELOPMENTS FROM SEC-
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RETARY KISSINGER'S MIDDLE EAST CONSULTATIONS.//
DIPLOMATIC ACTIVITY IS INTENSIFYING AS PLANS GO
FORWARD FOR TWO SUMMIT CONFERENCES INVOLVING THE
ARAB COUNTRIES. THE SEPARATE TRAVELS OF PRESIDENTS
QADHAFI AND BOUMEDIENE IN RECENT DAYS WERE PROBABLY
INTENDED IN PART TO CONSOLIDATE PLANS FOR THE ARAB
SUMMIT CONFERENCE WHICH QADHAFI IS URGING AND BOUME-
DIENE MAY HOST IN THE NEAR FUTURE. IN ADDITION,
BOUMEDIENE'S CALL FOR A SUMMIT MEETING OF ORGANIZATION
OF AFRICAN UNITY COUNTRIES HAS BEEN ANSWERED FAVOR-
ABLY BY ALL ARAB MEMBER STATES AND SEVERAL KEY AF-
RICAN NATIONS; BOUMEDIENE MAY HOPE TO HOLD THIS CON-
FERENCE AS WELL IN ALGIERS IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE
ARAB SUMMIT-
//THE FOREIGN MINISTERS OF THE NINE EC COUNTRIES,
MEETING IN BRUSSELS, ISSUED A JOINT DECLARATION ON
THE MIDDLE EAST ON 6 NOVEMBER THAT LEANS SLIGHTLY TOWARD
THE ARAB SIDE. THE DECLARATION CALLS ON THE FORCES
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OF BOTH SIDES TO RETURN IMMEDIATELY TO POSITIONS
OCCUPIED ON 22 OCTOBER, AND URGES THAT NEGOTIATIONS
TAKE PLACE WITHIN THE UN FRAMEWORK. THE STATEMENT
DID NOT, HOWEVER, CHARGE BRITAIN AND FRANCE, 'AS SE-
CURITY COUNCIL PERMANENT MEMBERS, WITH REPRESENTING
THE EC NINE, PROBABLY BECAUSE THE TWO ARE MORE PRO-
ARAB THAN MANY OF THE OTHER EC MEMBERS. {SECRET} E-2
DO/DDO- SDO-
25X1A
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