NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE (SANITIZED)

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00757R000100040022-3
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 3
• Document Creation Date: December 21, 2016
• Document Release Date: August 25, 2008
• Sequence Number: 22
• Publication Date: March 25, 1982
• Content Type: MEMO

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Approved For Release 2008/08/25: CIA-RDP85T00757R000100040022-3
( J. - WASI*NGTON. D.C. 20301 .
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2 5 MAR 1982
S-4073/OS-3
MEMORANDUM FOR THE DEPUTY DIRECTOR, CENTRAL INT LLIGENCE AGENCY
SUBJECT: National Intelligence Estima lume I, 7 July 1981,
"Warsaw Pact Forces Opposite
1. (U) Purpose of this memorandum is to inform you of the apparent loss of
78 copies of subject document.
2. (S) On 3-August 1981, 178 copies of subject document were furnished to
DIA for further dissemination to specified DoD addressees. One hundred copies
were intended for dissemination within the National Capital Region (NCR), with
the remainder for addressees outside the NCR. In early September 1981, an
intended recipient of the document contacted DIA and requested the status of
dissemination as that organization's copies had not been received. Subsequent
inquiry revealed that the 78 copies intended for external NCR distribution
could not be located. Exhaustive searches were conducted without success in
all DIA areas where the documents had been received, processed for shipment,
or might logically have been received or stored by error. Document receipts
confirmed that NCR recipients had received their 100 copies. In addition,
contacts with external NCR recipients confirmed nonreceipt of their copies.
.3. (S) An extensive investigation by DIA's Office of Security revealed-that
the 78 copies described above had allegedly been included with other classi-
fied material in a two-container shipment forwarded for processing to a DIA
mail facility at Arlington Hall Station, VA. Other classified material'in-
!cluded in the shipment was located; however, no trace of the 78 documents or
accompanying transmittal documentation was found. As a result of this inci-
dent, corrective actions were undertaken to strengthen DIA's document control
and handling procedures. In addition, a task group is presently studying DIA's
document control and accountability procedures and is developing recommenda-
tions on. further improving these areas.
4. (S) Considering the volume of material involved, inadvertent destruction
of the documents appears unlikely. It is also unlikely that the loss of the
documents was the result of deliberate compromise or espionage. While the
removal of one document might go unnoticed for a period of time, the outright
removal of 78 documents would certainly trigger alarm much sooner. Further,
the known modus operandi of hostile intelligence services do not lend them-
selves to the outright theft of 78 copies of a document for espionage purposes.
It is more likely that one copy would be surreptitiously removed for photo-
graphing and then replaced so as not to draw undue attention. The possibility
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DIA review completed.
Classified by.
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OS-3 ? -_ _ __..
19 March 1968
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 does exist that DIA never received the documents in question. Our investi-
gation determined that the receiving clerk did not count the copies received.
This is further supported by the fact that no trace of the documents has been
found, either in DIA or among selected recipients outside the NCR.
5. (S).The search for the missing documents, as well as the review of DIA's
document control and handling procedures, is continuing. Should any signifi-
cant developments occur, you will be immediately advised.
.+ Approved For Release 2008/08/25: CIA-RDP85T00757R000100040022-3
SECRET
JAMES A. ?WILLIAMS
Lieutenant General, U. S. Army
Director
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