THE SITUATION IN INDOCHINA (AS OF 1600 EST) NO. 3

• Document Type: CREST
• Collection: General CIA Records
• Document Number (FOIA) /ESDN (CREST): CIA-RDP85T00353R000100160005-4
• Release Decision: RIPPUB
• Original Classification: S
• Document Page Count: 6
• Document Creation Date: December 14, 2016
• Document Release Date: July 10, 2003
• Sequence Number: 5
• Publication Date: April 5, 1975
• Content Type: IM

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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
Directorate of Intelligence
5 April 1975
The Situation in Indochina
(As of 1600 EST)
No. 3
Military Action in Delta
1. There were no majbr attacks against cities
in the delta, but the level,'of Communist and -govern-
ment initiatives in the countryside continues to
increase: Regional Force units successfully de-
fended a district town in Vinh Long Province, scat-
tering the attackers in disarray and pursuing them
until dark. Government territorials also reopened
the road northeast of the Kien Giang Province capital.
of Rach Gia, which had been cut yesterday.
2. The regional staff members seem convinced
that the North Vietnamese 4th Divisibn, which has
concentrated its regiments. near Can Tho City, must
soon make its move or risk losing its combat effec-
tiveness. Some officials feel that if the 4th-Divi-
sion has not made a succes,ful bid against the Can
Tho defenses by April 8, it'will have to fall back.
Although the South Vietnamese 21st Division has not-
been aggressive in breaking up the Communist threat,
there has been constant contact, and air and artil-
.lery strikes have been conducted daily. Delta
officials believe that these strikes take a consid-
erable toll in men and supplies and this pressure
will force the Communists either to attack soon or
to disengage.
DIA and DOS review(s) completed.
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Regional Commanders Indisposed
3.- General Ugo Quang Troung is in the hospital
in Saigon recovering from a minor operation. f
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4. General. Pham Van Phu,, the former commander
of MR-2, is also in a Saigon hospital, reportedly
suffering from nervous tension. Following a speech
by President Thieu yesterday, associates of Phu
expressed concern that .the general may be punished.
Thieu said that some military commanders were partly
to blame for the debacle'oof recent weeks. He is
upset with what he considers premature decisions by
both Truohg and Phu to abandon their regions.
Initial Reactions tb New Cabinet Formation -
5. In a limited sampling of Vietnamese reac-
tion to the formation of a new cabinet, the US em-
bassy reports that most of those interviewed are
taking.a wait and see attitude.. They welcomed the
departure of Prime ?Minister Khiem but questioned
Whether Speaker Can is capable of the difficult task
Thieu has assigned him.. Although Can is a respected.
and intelligent politician, he is a close associate
of Thieu and has few con tact among the military. As
a national leader, most 25X6
question whether he can persuade an impres-
sive group to join the government.
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The Tactical Situation
1. Fighting has increased on the Route 5 front
some six miles north of Phnom Penh. US defense at-
taches who visited the area reported that the situ-
ation is under control for the moment but that
government defenses along the highway and on the
peninsula just across the Tonle Sap River are very
porous. Just to the west, government units that had
earlier evacuated an isolated headquarters well re-
moved from the main battlefields have moved into
blocking positions along the dike five miles from
Pochentong Airport. Government commanders are pull-
ing units in from enclaves in the countryside and
by next week may have several thousand additional
troops to reinforce the capital's northwestern de-
fenses.
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3. Communist gunners today fired about 50
rockets and howitzer rounds into Pochentong Airport.
Four Khmer air force pilots were Caounded and three
airforce transports were damaged. Only four T-22s
were available for combat support today and the air
force may soon be limited to a,transport role.
US airlift continued without interruption today.
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Evacuation Status
4. By nightfall on Sunday (Phnom Penh time),
Ambassador Dean plans to have reduced the US Mission'
staff to 61 persons or less. The departing US
personnel will be flown to Thailand aboard US char-
ter aircraft. In addition to the reduced mission
staff, ten members of .the advance ground security
force for Eagle Pull will also remain in Phnom Penh.
Another eight US military personnel will continue
.to direct airlift operations; seven of these will
depart on the last flight each night.
5. Ambassador Dean has reported that in addi-
tion to the official members of the US Mission,
there were another 135 US citizens 'in Phnom Penh as
of this morning. These include some 50 "transients,"
49 Americans who are teachers, missionaries, or em-
ployees of airlines and relief organizations; and 36
members of the press corps. Many of these have ap-
parently bpen.reluctant to'leave.
6. Only two foreign diplomats remain on the
evacuation list as of today but there are 30 non-
official third country nationals. The ambassador
is deeply concerned over the more than 800 Cambodians
included in the evacuation plan. He believes that
the departure of large numbers of government offi-
cials and Cambodian employees of the US Mission?
along with their dependents--will be read as a sign
of defeat in Phnom Penh. As a, result an unpredic--
table'and uncontrollable situation might develop
which could make it difficult or impossible to carry
the evacuationrplans throuufih to completion.
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Political Developments
7. The Thai government is apparently making
an eleventh hour effort to spark a dialogue between
the two Cambodian belligerents. Thai Foreign Min-
ister Chatchai told US Charge Masters in Bangkok
yesterday that he had invited Sihanouk's son, Prince
Yuvaneath, to visit the Thai capital over the week-
end. Cambodian Prime Minister Long Boret is
scheduled to pass through Bangkok on Sunday and
Chatchai apparently hopes to arrange a meeting be-
tween the two.
8. Even if the Thais succeed in bringing the
two Cambodians together, there is very little hope
that such a meeting would result in-any significant
movement toward a peaceful settlement. Prince
Yuvaneath--
who has been staying in Macao--is clearly not au-
thorized to speak for his father, let alone the
Khmer Communists. Recent statements from both
Sihanouk.and the Communists'have made it clear that
they sense victory and are even more firmly opposed
than in the past to "negotiations or compromise."
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